德国软件巨头SAP周二美股盘后公布的第二季度业绩显示，美元走软带来的汇率压力导致该公司云业务收 入不及分析师预期，美股ADR盘后一度下跌3%。 以下是SAP二季度财报要点： 主要财务数据： 总营收：SAP第二季度总营收达到90.27亿欧元，同比增长9%（按不变汇率计算增长12%）， 不及分析师预期的90.7亿欧元。 云ERP套件收入：SAP第二季度云ERP套件（包括S/4HANA Cloud）收入达到44.22亿欧元，同 比增长30%（按不变汇率34%）。 云积压订单：SAP第二季度云积压订单达180.52亿欧元，同比增长22%（按不变汇率28%）， 不及分析师预期的185亿欧元。 云ERP套件：SAP第二季度云ERP套件（包括S/4HANA Cloud）收入达到44.22亿欧元，同比增 长30%（按不变汇率34%）。 云计算与软件营收：SAP第二季度云计算及软件营收达到79.7亿欧元，同比增长11%，略低于 分析师平均预期的79.9亿欧元。 云业务毛利：非IFRS口径下，SAP第二季度云业务毛利润增长至38.56亿欧元，毛利率达 75.2%，较2024年第二季度的73.3%明显提升。 运营利润：SAP第二季 ...

由于汇率和关税压力，诺基亚下调业绩预期 金十数据7月23日讯，诺基亚下调了全年营业利润预期，理由是汇率波动和关税带来的不利因素。这家 芬兰电信设备制造商周二表示，目前预计2025年的可比营业利润将在16亿欧元至21亿欧元之间。此前的 预测为19亿欧元至24亿欧元。该公司预计，汇率波动，特别是美元走软，将带来约2.3亿欧元的负面影 响。此外，该公司指出，目前的关税状况预计将使其全年营业利润减少5000万至8000万欧元。同时，该 集团公布了第二季度的初步财报数据，净销售额约为45.5亿欧元，可比营业利润为3亿欧元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are discussing solutions to address the inconsistency between fundamental factors and exchange rate fluctuations, particularly the impact of gold prices on the Thai baht [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Gold Price Impact - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, Roong Mallikamas, highlighted that gold prices are a non-fundamental factor influencing the Thai baht's performance [1] - Authorities are seeking ways to reduce the correlation between gold prices and the Thai baht [1] - The Thai baht has appreciated approximately 11% over the past year, making it one of the best-performing currencies in Asia, while gold prices reached record levels in April [1] Group 2: Policy Measures and Economic Role - Roong emphasized that the Thai baht should act as a shock absorber rather than amplifying shocks, indicating that non-fundamental issues need to be addressed [1] - Specific measures being planned to tackle these issues have not been disclosed, nor has a timeline for their announcement been provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has surpassed the 148 mark, reaching its highest level since June 23, with an intraday increase of 0.18% [1] Group 1 - The USD/JPY has crossed the 148 threshold, indicating a significant movement in the currency market [1] - This marks a new high for the USD/JPY since June 23, suggesting a strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen [1] - The intraday increase of 0.18% reflects ongoing trends in currency trading and market sentiment [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].

Group 1 - The weak US dollar is expected to negatively impact European companies' earnings, making currency fluctuations a key issue for the earnings season [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the euro has appreciated nearly 13% against the dollar, while the British pound has risen about 8% [1] - Companies with over 25% of their revenue from North America may face significant impacts from currency fluctuations, especially those lacking effective hedging strategies [1][5] Group 2 - Analysts have generally lowered their expectations, predicting a decline in European corporate earnings, which could lead to further downward revisions if negative trends continue [7] - The Stoxx 600 index is expected to see a year-on-year decline in earnings per share of 3%, marking the largest drop in five quarters due to weak demand and a 3.5% increase in the euro trade-weighted index [9] Group 3 - Sectors most sensitive to currency fluctuations include healthcare, luxury goods, and technology, with companies like Argenx (84% North America exposure) and Fresenius Medical (66% North America exposure) being particularly vulnerable [4] - Companies with advanced hedging strategies tend to perform better, as seen with Brunello Cucinelli SpA, which reported double-digit growth without being affected by currency fluctuations [14]

汇率波动还波及其他领域。韩国美妆代购直播开播就喊出"汇率破7狂喜！雪花秀套装立减80！"的口号，后台订单量半小时内突破五千单；外贸企业会计小 周忙着调整报价单，给迈阿密客户的邮件里，新款庭院帐篷降价5%，并在末尾加上了感谢语；伦敦布伦特原油报价每桶下跌0.8美元，中东油轮纷纷改道驶 向青岛港，上海原油期货人民币结算量单日激增17%，沙特阿美高管连夜飞抵浦东；深圳宝安机场的货机塞满跨境电商包裹，货运经理老林催促工人："麻 利点！赶美联储下次会议前全发走！"；留学机构顾问的手机被打爆，波士顿大学的催款邮件躺在学生邮箱里，学费缴费单上的数字少了许多，陈女士握着 汇款凭证松了一口气："这汇率够孩子半年生活费了！" 银行柜员小陈一天办理了两百笔结汇业务，手指敲键盘敲到发麻；换汇大厅的电子屏红得刺眼，大 爷大妈们举着存折挤到柜台前，有人后悔上周换汇太早；外汇黄牛在柜台前直拍大腿："美元存货全砸手里了！" 中国银行7月12日下午3点挂出的人民币卖 出价为7.1686，这意味着换1万美元比上周少掏近200元人民币。 这场汇率风暴仍在继续，其影响将深远且复杂。 全球金融市场正经历一场剧烈震荡。7月12日下午，人民币兑美元汇率突 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights issues faced by consumers when canceling Tokyo Disneyland's VP (Vacation Package) during the free cancellation period, resulting in unexpected refund deductions [1][7] - The VP package includes various benefits such as park tickets, fast passes, and meal reservations, making it more convenient for families visiting the park [3][4] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of exchange rate fluctuations and cross-border payment fees when booking international travel packages [8][10] Group 2 - The refund amount received by consumers can be lower than the original payment due to currency exchange rate changes during the refund process [8][9] - The article emphasizes the importance of confirming whether payments can be made in local currency to avoid potential losses from exchange rate fluctuations [10][11] - Experts suggest that international theme parks should improve service efficiency and provide clearer warnings about exchange rate risks during cross-border transactions [11]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment significantly impacts Hong Kong's consumer stocks, with economic growth directly affecting residents' income levels and consumption capacity [1] - During economic expansion, increased income leads to higher consumer willingness and ability, creating a favorable market for consumer companies [1] - Conversely, economic downturns can shrink the consumer market, posing challenges for consumer stocks, necessitating close monitoring of macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth and inflation rates [1] Group 2: Industry Development Trends - The consumer industry is evolving due to social progress and technological advancements, with new consumption models and scenarios emerging [1] - E-commerce has transformed traditional retail, and companies that adapt to industry trends and adjust their strategies tend to perform better in the market [1] - Companies failing to align with these trends may face declining performance [1] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - Company fundamentals are crucial, encompassing financial health indicators such as profitability, solvency, and operational efficiency [2] - A strong brand presence enhances market recognition, customer loyalty, and pricing power, contributing to a company's resilience and growth [2] - The capability and strategic vision of the management team are vital for seizing market opportunities and making sound decisions [2] Group 4: Market Valuation Levels - Market valuation levels are essential for investors considering Hong Kong consumer stocks, requiring accurate assessments through metrics like price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [2] - Overvalued stocks relative to fundamentals pose higher investment risks, while undervalued stocks may present potential investment opportunities [2] - Valuation analysis should consider industry characteristics and the company's development stage for comprehensive judgment [2] Group 5: Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Exchange rate fluctuations are unavoidable in investing in Hong Kong consumer stocks, affecting investment returns due to currency variations [3] - Companies with significant overseas operations or high reliance on imported materials may see their costs and profits impacted by exchange rate movements [3] - Investors should monitor exchange rate trends to assess potential impacts on target companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a complex balancing act regarding the recent appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, with differing opinions among its decision-makers on the implications for monetary policy [1] Group 1: ECB Officials' Perspectives - ECB Vice President Guindos warns that if the euro exceeds the psychological level of 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the monetary policy environment [1] - Executive Board member Smets emphasizes the need to closely monitor the speed of euro appreciation, suggesting that rapid increases could impact inflation targets [1] - In contrast, the central bank governors of Portugal and Estonia express a more optimistic view, stating that the current exchange rate reflects improvements in the eurozone's economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The ongoing interest from international investors in euro-denominated assets is seen as beneficial for enhancing the euro's status as a reserve currency, which could positively impact long-term financial stability in the eurozone [1] - The divergence in policy stances highlights the ECB's multiple considerations in addressing exchange rate fluctuations, balancing short-term impacts on exports and inflation with long-term strategic benefits of euro internationalization [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is identified at 1.1717, with further support seen at the early 2025 high of 1.1631; a break below this could lead to deeper declines towards the 1.1500 area [2] - Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1830, followed by the 1.1900 region, which previously served as a peak from July to September 2021; a clear breakout above this area could target the psychological level of 1.2000 [2]