Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The industry will experience range - bound oscillations, with the strong game - playing pattern continuing. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in costs, supply, and demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract showed wide - range oscillations, with prices fluctuating between 155,000 yuan/ton and 173,400 yuan/ton, closing at 161,940 yuan/ton. Trading volume slightly shrank to 589,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 453,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 27,200 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 163,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 1,060 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of market transactions, upstream lithium salt manufacturers preferentially fulfilled long - term agreements, and their willingness to sell spot orders was low, with some manufacturers quoting high prices. The proportion of spot purchases by downstream material manufacturers increased during long - term agreement negotiations. The weakening of the afternoon market led to a recovery in inquiry and transactions, and overall transactions moderately increased [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% month - on - month, continuing the upward trend and strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling increased slightly. SMM's total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [4]. - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory destocking. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while SMM new energy vehicle sales and penetration reached new highs. Slight growth in the production scheduling of energy - storage cells supported demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [4]. Policy Impact - In 2026, subsidies for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly provided favorable support for long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may exacerbate short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export rush demand [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a high - level range - bound, and investors should be vigilant about potential price corrections. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [4] 3. Summary by Key Points Market Performance of Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate continued its strong trend after opening yesterday, with the disk price hitting the daily limit of 174,600 yuan/ton and closing at 166,980 yuan/ton. Trading volume increased to 608,200 lots, and open interest decreased to 460,300 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 26,900 lots [3] - The average price of SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was 159,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Side Analysis - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% week - on - week, strengthening cost support [4] - The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% week - on - week. The operating rates of spodumene and salt - lake lithium decreased slightly, while those of lithium - mica and the recycling end increased slightly. The total output of SMM lithium carbonate increased by 0.5% week - on - week, and production capacity was further released [4] Demand - Side Analysis - There was significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% week - on - week respectively, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly, while SMM new - energy vehicle sales and penetration rate reached new highs, and the production schedule of SMM energy - storage cells increased slightly, supporting demand [4] Inventory Situation - Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% week - on - week, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days increased slightly to 28 days [4] Policy Impact - In 2026, policies such as car trade - in subsidies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt - Lake Industry Plan, the key points of energy - storage development during the 14th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term balance of supply and demand [4] - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may intensify short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export - rush demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to operate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, cost, and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely during the day, closing at 143,420 yuan/ton. Trading volume dropped significantly to 469,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 510,900 lots. Trading sentiment cooled significantly. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio slightly increased, and the warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 25,360 lots. The basis of the main contract narrowed to - 3,420 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market Performance - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 140,000 yuan/ton. Price increases promoted upstream scattered orders, and downstream had rigid demand. When the futures price fell to the spot price range, downstream inquiries were active, and the increase in transactions drove up the spot price [2] 3.3 Supply - Side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% week - on - week, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% week - on - week. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lepidolite and recycling increased slightly. The total output increased by 0.5% week - on - week, and production capacity was further released [3] 3.4 Demand - Side Situation - There was significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the output of SMM iron - lithium and ternary batteries decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% respectively week - on - week, with inventory destocking. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly, the sales and penetration rate of SMM new energy vehicles reached new highs, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3] 3.5 Inventory Situation - Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory increased by 0.3% week - on - week, showing signs of inventory accumulation for the first time. The total inventory days increased slightly to 28 days [3] 3.6 Policy Factors - In 2026, policies such as automobile trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, Qinghai salt - lake industry plans, 14th Five - Year Plan for energy - storage, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed coordinated benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulations have been tightened. On January 4, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" may intensify short - term supply shortages. On January 9, the reduction of the battery export tax - rebate policy may trigger short - term export rush demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the vehicle trade-in policy to a "proportional subsidy" will significantly benefit mid-to-high-end vehicles, with an estimated profit increase of 15.9 billion yuan for the passenger car industry in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impact - The new policy, effective from December 30, 2025, provides a subsidy of 12% for new energy vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively for scrapping [1]. - The trade-in subsidy for purchasing new energy and fuel vehicles will be 8% and 6% respectively, with maximum subsidies of 15,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan [1]. - The adjustment in Chongqing shows that the sales proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan increased to 39.1% in November 2025, up by 6.3 percentage points from July 2025 [1]. Group 2: Profit Projections - The estimated profit increase of 15.9 billion yuan for the passenger car industry in 2026 is based on the assumption that domestic terminal sales will remain flat year-on-year [1]. - The theoretical profit space for different price segments is projected to grow as follows: 0 billion yuan for under 100,000 yuan, 0.3 billion yuan for 100,000-150,000 yuan, 0.7 billion yuan for 150,000-200,000 yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan for above 200,000 yuan [1]. - The total amount of trade-in subsidies is expected to decline by approximately 30 billion yuan in 2026, but the subsidies for vehicles priced above 150,000 yuan will increase by about 14 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the passenger vehicle chain include Geely Automobile, BYD, Chery Automobile, and others for right-side opportunities, while Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile are suggested for left-side opportunities [3]. - Companies showing potential turning points include SAIC Motor [3]. - In the upstream and downstream chains, recommended stocks include Minth Group, Yinlun Machinery, and others for right-side opportunities, while Yongda Automobile and New Coordinates are suggested for left-side opportunities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the vehicle trade-in policy to a "proportional subsidy" will significantly benefit mid-to-high-end vehicles, with an expected profit increase of 15.9 billion yuan for the passenger car industry in 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - The new policy, effective from December 30, 2025, includes a scrapping subsidy of 12% for new energy vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively [1]. - The trade-in subsidy will provide 8% for new energy vehicles and 6% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 15,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Profit Projections - Based on data from Chongqing, the proportional subsidy is expected to increase the profit of the passenger car industry by 15.9 billion yuan in 2026, with profit growth in different price segments projected as follows: 0 yuan for under 100,000 yuan, 300 million yuan for 100,000-150,000 yuan, 2.9 billion yuan for 150,000-200,000 yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan for above 200,000 yuan [2][3]. - The total amount of trade-in subsidies is projected to decline by approximately 30 billion yuan in 2026, but the subsidy amount for vehicles priced above 150,000 yuan is expected to increase by about 14 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, Chery, and others as potential investment opportunities [4]. - Companies positioned for growth include SAIC Motor, while others like Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile are identified as left-side targets [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily Market Trend - The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fluctuating upward trend. The opening price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 16,130 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,790 yuan/ton, and it closed at 16,050 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 328,277 lots, and the open interest increased by 17,689 lots to 199,609 lots [1] 2. Spot Market Situation - The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,650 yuan/ton [1] 3. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - Supply side: The domestic Yunnan production area has entered the suspension period, and the raw material supply in Hainan and Vietnam is limited, which supports the rubber price. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 333,260.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level [1] - Macro aspect: On January 5, the US dollar index was 98.3291, which decreased compared with the previous period, alleviating the cost pressure of imported rubber priced in US dollars to a certain extent [1] 4. Short - Term Outlook and Factors to Watch - Supply side: In late January, the main production areas such as northeastern Thailand and Vietnam will gradually enter the production - reduction period, and the winter storage demand of processing plants in the production areas may support the upstream raw material prices [2] - Demand side: Although the capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises is currently differentiated, and some enterprises arrange short - term maintenance due to inventory and order pressure, the "Implementation Rules for the Subsidies for Replacing Old Cars with New Ones in 2026" has been implemented since January 1st, which is expected to support the automobile market and drive the recovery of tire demand [2] - Inventory: It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the changes in the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone and domestic social inventory. If the inventory growth slows down or there are signs of destocking, it may further boost market confidence [2][3] - Other factors: It is also necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in Southeast Asian production areas, the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the impact of macro - economic policies on the market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and it is necessary to focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday morning, the main lithium carbonate contract opened more than 7% higher, reaching 147,000 yuan/ton, then fell back to around 140,000 yuan/ton, with 420,000 lots traded and 506,500 lots in open interest, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest [3]. - The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - to - short ratio slightly decreased, and some funds took profits [3]. - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 133,500 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract narrowed, but it was still at a negative basis [3]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, with further release of production capacity, and the cost - side support continued to strengthen as upstream raw material prices continued to rise [4]. - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate was strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials was weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached new highs, providing a solid support for lithium carbonate demand [4]. Inventory - Last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the inventory depletion slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as the previous week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [4]. Policy - In 2026, the subsidy for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were taken to stabilize price fluctuations [4]. - On January 4th, the issuance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" by the State Council, combined with news of mine复产, still provided upward price drive, but market sentiment ebbed, and some funds took profits [4].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has released the implementation details for the 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy program, expanding the support scope compared to 2025 [1][2] - As of December 28, 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles have participated in the trade-in program, generating new car sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Subsidy Details - For 2026, individuals who scrap eligible passenger vehicles and purchase new eligible passenger vehicles will receive a one-time subsidy [1] - The subsidy for scrapping and replacing with new energy vehicles is set at 12% of the new vehicle's sales price, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan; for scrapping and replacing with fuel vehicles, the subsidy is 10% of the new vehicle's sales price, capped at 15,000 yuan [1] - The old vehicle and the new vehicle must be registered under the same consumer's name [1] Group 2: Trade-in Process - The implementation details specify that individuals who sell their old passenger vehicles and purchase new eligible vehicles will also receive a one-time subsidy [2] - The subsidy for replacing with new energy vehicles is 8% of the new vehicle's sales price, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan; for replacing with fuel vehicles, the subsidy is 6% of the new vehicle's sales price, capped at 13,000 yuan [2] - Each individual consumer can only choose to enjoy either the vehicle scrapping subsidy or the vehicle trade-in subsidy once during the policy implementation period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of a strong start in January 2026, the operational conditions for automotive dealers may still face challenges due to high inventory levels and reduced consumer demand [3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers was reported at 57.7% in December 2025, an increase of 7.5 percentage points year-on-year and 2.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in industry prosperity [3]. - A survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association revealed a decrease in customer traffic and a cautious market outlook, leading to reduced demand and narrowing profit margins on new car sales [3][4]. - Nearly half of the dealers achieved a task completion rate of 90% or above for the entire year of 2025, with 15.3% exceeding their targets [3]. Group 2: Sales Forecast - The automotive consumption index for December 2025 was 97.7, higher than the previous month, suggesting an anticipated "opening red" for the automotive market in January 2026 due to pent-up demand from the end of year and pre-Spring Festival purchases [4][5]. - The retail volume of passenger cars in December 2025 was approximately 2.2 million units, with an annual forecast of 23.55 million units for 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024 [5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The introduction of the new "old-for-new" vehicle replacement subsidy policy in December 2025 is expected to positively influence consumer sentiment and stimulate demand at the beginning of 2026 [5]. - Dealers are projected to continue facing significant pressure in 2026 due to tightening consumer spending, policy shifts, and ongoing price competition, which may lead to a vicious cycle of high inventory and financial strain [5]. - The competition in the new energy vehicle market is intensifying, while the traditional fuel vehicle market is shrinking, adding to the competitive pressure and uncertainty for dealers [5].

Core Viewpoint - 中升控股 (00881) is experiencing a stock price increase of over 4% following BMW China's announcement of price adjustments for its main models starting January 1, 2026, which could benefit dealers like 中升控股 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - BMW China will adjust the suggested retail prices of 31 key models, with 24 models seeing reductions of over 10% and 5 models over 20%, with some models having price cuts exceeding 300,000 RMB [1] - The price adjustments are expected to lower the cost of goods for dealers, potentially increasing their gross margins on new car sales [1] Group 2: Impact on Dealers - Morgan Stanley believes that 中升控股 and other dealers will benefit slightly from the price reductions, although future rebates from manufacturers may decrease as they are determined by the manufacturers [1] - The new vehicle trade-in subsidies will be linked to vehicle prices, with subsidies for cars priced below 150,000 RMB decreasing year-on-year, while vehicles priced between 150,000 and 200,000 RMB will benefit the most from the discounts [1] Group 3: Market Preferences - Morgan Stanley prefers companies that offer high-end vehicle brands, which is favorable for 中升控股 as it acts as an agent for high-end brands [1]