行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 2025 年 12 月 22 日 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 基本面筑底，行业进入配置周期 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 52 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 1.53%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 4.05%，同期上证综指上 涨 0.03%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，创业板指下跌 2.26%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 1.53%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 11 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global deep space exploration is transitioning from a focus on technological breakthroughs to a balanced emphasis on significant scientific discoveries and resource development [1] Group 1: Conference Overview - The "Frontiers of Extraterrestrial Resource Development Technology and Development Strategy - Space Mining and Deep Space Manufacturing" academic seminar was held in Bozhou, Anhui, organized by the Chinese Academy of Engineering [1] - The seminar was supported by various institutions including the National Space Administration's Deep Space Exploration Innovation Center and the Bozhou Municipal Government [1] - Key experts in attendance included academicians from various universities and organizations, with nearly a hundred representatives from over 30 units participating [1] Group 2: Discussion Topics - Experts discussed strategies for resource development and utilization of typical extraterrestrial bodies such as asteroids and the Moon [1] - The conference covered key technology systems, industry traction mechanisms, and major engineering application scenarios related to extraterrestrial resource exploration, mining, and in-situ manufacturing [1] - There was a systematic exchange on the full-chain technology paths for extraterrestrial resource exploration, mining, and construction, along with prospects for the deep space economy and industry development [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Commercial Aerospace Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the commercial aerospace industry, particularly highlighting the advancements and investment opportunities related to companies like Blue Arrow and SpaceX [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Blue Arrow's successful test of a reusable rocket indicates its capability for large-scale launches, potentially accelerating its listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, exceeding market expectations [1][2]. - SpaceX's valuation surged from $400 billion to $800 billion, reflecting the U.S. capital market's strong recognition of the space economy, which includes traditional broadband and deep space economic expansion [2][5]. - The commercial aerospace supply chain includes key players such as rocket launch companies (e.g., Blue Arrow, Chang 12), satellite manufacturers (e.g., Shanghai Port Bay), and substrate manufacturers (e.g., Yunnan Germanium) [1][4]. - The demand for satellites is expected to grow significantly, with StarNet's first-generation enhanced satellites set to enter deployment by the end of 2026, and a second-generation experimental satellite planned for launch early next year [1][10]. Emerging Trends - The demand for computational power in space is increasing, with companies like StarCloud and Beijing Orbital Morning Light planning to achieve substantial computational capabilities by 2030 and 2035, respectively [1][11]. - The establishment of satellite super factories in various regions of China, such as the Wenchang Aerospace City, aims to produce 100 rockets and 1,000 satellites annually by 2027, enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities [12][13]. Investment Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is currently in a nascent stage, akin to the robotics industry in late 2024, with significant investment opportunities anticipated in the coming months [2][16]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on both emerging sectors like computational satellites and traditional satellite companies, as the market is expected to adjust positively in 2026 [16][17]. - The upcoming launch of multiple rocket companies and the support from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's green channel indicate a robust investment environment [2][16]. Key Companies and Their Roles - Blue Arrow and Chang 12 are highlighted as significant players in the rocket launch segment, with upcoming tests expected to drive investment interest [4][15]. - Shanghai Port Bay is noted for its solar wing energy system, which holds a substantial market share [4]. - Companies involved in testing, such as Guangdian Measurement and Su Shi Experiment, are crucial for ensuring the reliability of satellite launches [7]. Conclusion - The commercial aerospace industry is poised for growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for satellite launches. Investors should remain vigilant and consider both high-risk and traditional investment opportunities within this sector [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huaron Co., Ltd. (603855.SH), currently lacks the complete capability for independent research and development of lunar mining robots, while it will continue to monitor the trends in the deep space economy [1]. Company Summary - Huaron Co., Ltd. has indicated that it does not possess the full capabilities required for the independent development of lunar mining robots [1]. - The company is committed to keeping an eye on the developments in the deep space economy [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company currently lacks the complete capability for independent research and development of lunar mining robots, while it will continue to monitor the trends in the deep space economy [1] Group 1 - The company is actively engaging with investors regarding its capabilities in lunar mining technology [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of following the development trends in the deep space economy [1]

Core Insights - The global rocket launch services market is experiencing rapid growth, with revenues projected to reach approximately $18.68 billion in 2024 and $64.25 billion by 2034, reflecting a CAGR of about 13.15% [1] - The demand for rocket launches is primarily driven by satellite launches, particularly low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, which are expected to grow from $12.64 billion in 2024 to $41.31 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of around 14% [1] - The rise of the deep space economy presents new opportunities for the rocket launch industry, with the commercial space market expected to exceed $700 billion by 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - Satellite launches constitute the main demand for rocket launches, with 224 out of 259 global space launch missions in 2024 being commercial satellite launches, accounting for approximately 86% [2] - The commercial satellite launch segment contributes about 71.75% to the commercial space launch market, highlighting the critical role of satellite launches in driving market growth [2] - The strategic value of low Earth orbit satellite frequency resources is increasing, as competition between the US and China intensifies in space deployment [2] China’s Opportunities - China's commercial space sector is entering a new phase of high-quality development, supported by a series of policies and strategic plans [3] - Local governments, particularly in Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai, are implementing action plans to support satellite and rocket development, providing strong growth momentum for the industry [3] - A vibrant ecosystem is emerging in China, covering satellite manufacturing, operation, rocket development, and ground control, facilitating a shift towards large-scale operations and core technology breakthroughs [3] Technological Advancements - Reusable rockets are identified as a key pathway for cost reduction, with rocket engines representing the highest hardware cost component [4] - The recovery and reuse of engines can significantly lower the cost per launch by spreading high manufacturing costs over multiple launches [4] - 3D printing technology is revolutionizing manufacturing in the commercial space sector, with companies like Relativity Space reducing the number of rocket parts and manufacturing time significantly [4]

Group 1: Aerospace Industry - The "Aerospace Power" has been included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a potential rapid development phase over the next five years[10] - The deep space economy is expected to become a core engine for transforming China from a space power to a space superpower, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies like satellite internet and reusable rockets[10] - The aerospace industry value chain is structured like a pyramid, with high profit margins in the mid and downstream sectors, which include satellite services and ground equipment[12] Group 2: PCB Equipment - Demand for drilling equipment is increasing due to the rise in the number of holes required for high-speed materials, leading to a significant increase in the number of machines needed for PCB production[33] - The market for laser drilling equipment is experiencing both volume and price increases, driven by the growing complexity of PCB designs[33] - Major players in the PCB equipment market, such as Dazhu CNC and Dingtai High-Tech, are expected to see substantial revenue growth, with Dazhu reporting a 95.19% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q3 2023[35] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is expected to focus on "expanding domestic demand" and "high-quality development" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing smart and green technologies[51] - The integration of AI and green technologies is projected to enhance the competitiveness of the automotive sector, with a focus on electric and hybrid vehicles[54] Group 4: AI Glasses - The market for AI glasses is rapidly expanding, with major players like Meta launching products that have received strong market responses, indicating a growing consumer interest[60] - AI glasses are expected to enhance user interaction through integrated functionalities, positioning them as a significant advancement in wearable technology[64] Group 5: Floor Cleaning Machines - The floor cleaning machine market has seen significant sales growth since Q4 2024, driven by government subsidies, with a projected increase in sales volume[89] - The market is currently dominated by a few key players, indicating a trend towards increased market concentration[89]

Group 1 - The company, Chujiang New Materials, confirmed that its subsidiary, Tian Niao High-tech, produces carbon fiber prepregs that are widely used in the structures of next-generation aerospace vehicles such as rockets and satellites [2] - Another subsidiary, Xinhai High Conductivity, manufactures high-end shaped copper conductors designed for high-pressure transmission scenarios, including subsea cables and offshore wind power [2]

Group 1 - The aerospace industry index in China shows mixed performance among constituent stocks, with Changcheng Military Industry leading at a 2.41% increase, while Guangqi Technology is the biggest loser [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) is currently priced at 1.11 yuan [1] Group 2 - The domestic low-orbit satellite network is entering a large-scale phase, with projections indicating that by 2028, the GW constellation will achieve the "Hundred Arrows Thousand Stars" plan, and by 2035, nearly 2,500 satellites will be launched annually, significantly increasing demand for rocket launches [2] - The commercial aerospace sector in China is entering a recovery phase, with a strong momentum expected as the industry accelerates, supported by breakthroughs from companies like StarNet and Yuanxin [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the commercial use of satellite IoT, opening new opportunities for satellite applications [2] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, with a high concentration of 98.2% in the military industry, covering key sectors such as aerospace equipment, satellite navigation, and new materials [2]

Group 1: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is expected to see significant development driven by large-scale infrastructure projects, with 2025 being a pivotal year for the transition from planning to industrial implementation [4] - The establishment of a nationwide low-altitude communication and navigation system is set to be completed by 2025, enhancing safety and operational capabilities in the low-altitude airspace [4] - The government's focus on developing new productive forces highlights the importance of the low-altitude economy in future economic strategies [4] Group 2: Deep Sea Technology - Deep sea technology has been elevated to a national strategic level, with significant market potential estimated in the trillions, covering areas such as deep-sea protection, detection, and resource development [5] - The government is expected to continue issuing supportive policies and financing for the deep sea technology sector, which is anticipated to accelerate its development [5] Group 3: Solar Thermal Power and Energy Storage - Solar thermal power generation is positioned as a stable and dispatchable energy source, with a projected cost reduction to 0.55 yuan per kilowatt-hour by 2025 [6] - The integration of molten salt energy storage systems is expected to enhance the efficiency and application of solar thermal power in various sectors [6] Group 4: Humanoid Robots - The aging population in China is driving the demand for humanoid robots, with projections indicating a labor supply gap of 6 million by 2025 and 20 million by 2030 [10] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to reach a market size of $32.4 billion globally and 75 billion yuan domestically by 2029 [10][12] - Recent policies in China are shifting focus from technology development to industrialization of humanoid robots, with several strategic plans being implemented [15] Group 5: Robotics Policies and Market Trends - China has introduced numerous policies to support the robotics industry, with a focus on enhancing manufacturing capabilities and promoting the integration of robotics in various sectors [15][19] - The market for humanoid robots is witnessing rapid commercialization, with several companies planning to deliver thousands of units in the coming years [18] Group 6: Commercial Space and Satellite Launches - The low-orbit satellite network is entering a dense phase, with a significant increase in satellite launches projected for the coming years [32] - The domestic satellite launch market is expected to grow from 12.4 billion yuan in 2020 to a substantial scale by 2030, driven by both state-owned and private enterprises [32]