滞胀预期

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翁富豪:5.18技术性回调还是趋势反转?黄金下周操作策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 16:20
Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a decline on May 16, potentially recording the largest weekly drop in six months, primarily due to a stronger dollar and easing concerns over the US-China trade war, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Gold prices fell over 2% on Friday and accumulated a nearly 4% drop for the week, marking the largest weekly decline since November of the previous year, driven by increased risk appetite following trade agreement developments [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been revised down to approximately 58 basis points by the end of the year, compared to 120 basis points during the peak of panic in April, indicating potential short-term pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent decline, gold remains in an upward trend over the long term, supported by the Federal Reserve's accommodative policies, which may continue to lower real yields [3] - The analysis suggests that while there may be short-term pullbacks, the overall trend for gold is bullish, with recommendations for trading strategies based on specific price levels [3] - Suggested trading strategies include buying on pullbacks in the 3175-3170 range with a target of 3185-3205 and selling on rebounds in the 3235-3240 range with a target of 3220-3200 [3]
5.17黄金走势分析二次探底右侧入场做多,后市行情趋势预测
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 18:05
技术面看,黄金昨日收报一个不错的探底饱满大阳K,且带有较长下影线,理论上来说是有希望结束这波3435下跌行 情的,但今日行情早盘拉升至3252一线再次大跌近百美元,目前日线已是大阴形态,行情再次进入多空宽幅震荡;今 晚3210-12一线又成为关键的反压点;其次是3192-95顶底阻力,支撑764分割位置3152附近,以及3140两处通道下轨支 撑; 因此,先反弹看上方两个阻力出现承压可看二次看跌回落;若先试探两个支撑出企稳信号,可看涨反弹,以震荡 来对待; 另外,今日这一波的回踩可能存在二次试探底部,出一个次低点的机会,就看两个支撑能否稳住,且稳住之 后探底拉升能否重新站上3210-12来确认。既然看二次探底,那么操作思路就是在前低上方逢低继续多了,下方3140- 3152区域留意结构右侧进场多。 本周,国际黄金市场遭遇"滑铁卢",金价一路狂跌,创下近六个月来最惨烈的单周跌幅。周五(5月16日)亚欧时 段,现货黄金小幅走弱,目前交投于3177.71美元/盎司附近,跌幅约1%;本周迄今为止,金价已下跌逾3%,可能创下 2024年11月以来的最差单周表现。这一突如其来的暴跌,让不少投资者措手不及。近几周以来,黄金 ...
金晟富:5.17黄金过山车极限拉扯!后市黄金分析及操作
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 16:30
我们这儿不搞"包赚不赔"的噱头,只有稳扎稳打的操作策略。建议您用大仓做趋势,小仓做波段—— 具体比例您自己拿捏。这市场上从来不存在"必亏的投资",只有不得法的操作!能不能盈利说白了就 看您能不能抓住买卖时间点。赚钱确实需要行情配合,但长期盈利得靠策略,持续赚钱更得靠真本事, 专业指导才是理财的硬通货。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势?后市黄金多空该如何研判? 周五(5月16日)国际黄金价格下跌,并有望录得六个月以来最大周跌幅,因美元走强以及美中贸易战担 忧减退,削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。截至发稿,现货黄金下跌1.83%,至3,181.19美元,日内 最低触及3154美元。黄金本周迄今已下跌超过3%,有望创下自2024年11月以来的最差周度表现。美元 指数本周上涨0.2%,有望实现连续第四周上涨,使以美元计价的黄金对海外买家而言变得更贵。黄金 近几周一直承压,因市场已经排除滞胀预期,并重新定价降息预期。目前市场预计美联储年内将降息约 58个基点,而在4月恐慌高峰期,这一预期一度高达120个基点。从更宏观的角度来看,黄金依然处于上 升趋势中,因为随着美联储的宽松政策,实际收益率可能会继续下降。但从短期来看 ...
现货黄金震荡反弹,上海金ETF(159830)开盘涨近2%,已实现连续3日净流入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 02:02
Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF is experiencing significant inflows and strong performance, with expectations for gold prices to potentially exceed $4,500 per ounce in 2025 due to various economic factors [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of May 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a net value increase of 31.69% over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 6 months and a maximum gain of 8.00% [3]. - The average monthly return for the ETF during up months is 3.04%, with a total annual profit percentage of 100.00% and a monthly profit probability of 66.92% [3]. - The Sharpe ratio for the ETF over the past year is 2.86, placing it in the top 2 out of 7 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that the current gold price increase cycle has not yet fully played out, with significant upward potential remaining [4]. - The forecast for 2025 includes expectations of a decline in the US dollar index to 90 and three rate cuts (approximately 75 basis points), which could support higher gold prices [4]. - The anticipated implementation of "Tariff 2.0" in June and increasing "stagflation" pressures in the US are expected to trigger a new gold price rally [4].
美股六连涨暗藏杀机!中概股分化背后谁在偷跑?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 00:37
Market Overview - The recent performance of the U.S. stock market shows signs of "false prosperity," with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.75%, largely driven by traditional giants like Boeing and Caterpillar, indicating a "high-low switch" strategy among investors [3] - The Nasdaq's 0.55% increase was primarily supported by Tesla, which alone contributed a 2.15% rise, while other major tech stocks like Amazon and Google experienced slight declines, suggesting a lack of broad market strength [3] Company-Specific Insights - Supermicro's earnings forecast fell short by nearly $1 billion compared to market expectations, leading to a 20% drop in its stock price post-announcement. This event serves as a warning signal for the entire AI server supply chain, impacting stocks like Nvidia and Dell [3] - In the Chinese concept stock market, the Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.3%, but there was significant divergence within the sector. New Oriental saw a rise of over 4% due to favorable trends in vocational education, while Xpeng faced a 6% decline due to tariff issues [3] - Luckin Coffee continues to struggle, reflecting a significant decline in market sentiment towards previously high-flying stocks [3] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market experienced a "Black Tuesday," with oil prices dropping below $60 and gold losing its safe-haven appeal, reflecting global economic "stagflation" expectations [4] - The simultaneous decline in oil and gold prices is attributed to OPEC+ production increases amid weak demand, while a rebound in the dollar is pressuring gold prices [4] Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4.17%, and the 2-year yield reached 3.65%, indicating a steepening yield curve that suggests market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4] - Consumer confidence has dropped to a pandemic low, and job vacancies have decreased for three consecutive months, further supporting the notion of an impending rate cut [4] Strategic Recommendations - The current rally in the U.S. stock market lacks solid foundations, with a focus on upcoming Nvidia earnings to provide clarity [4] - Investors in Chinese concept stocks should focus on policy benefits and earnings certainty, particularly in education and essential consumer sectors [4] - Caution is advised in the commodity market, with recommendations to wait for the OPEC+ June meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision before making significant moves [4]
关税冲击叠加政策博弈,金银冲高后震荡加剧
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 13:51
/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货贵金属月报 金银 关税冲击叠加政策博弈 金银冲高后震荡加剧 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 2022 年 12 月 25 日 2025 年 4 月金银行情剧烈震荡,COMEX 黄金和沪金分别创下 3509.9 美元/ 盎司和 836.30 元/克的历史新高,主因美国对全球加征 "对等关税" 激化滞胀预 期,避险资金大规模涌入黄金。然而,黄金冲高后受关税谈判缓和信号及美联储政 策博弈影响,COMEX 黄金从高位回落;白银虽跟随黄金阶段性反弹,但受全球制造 业疲软拖累,跟涨后再度回落,金银比破百并一度攀升至 105.26 高位。短期分化 下,白银依托光伏需求与库存低位积累修复动能,黄金则在关税与美联储政策分歧 中维持高波动,凸显避险与工业属性差异。 金银 国信期货交易咨询业务资格: 展望后市,短期来看,贵金属市场或维持高位震荡格局。美联储五月议息会议 大概率维持利率不变,市场对六月开启降息的预期持续升温,若通胀数据延续回落 趋势,实际利率下行将进一步打开黄金上行空间。然而,地缘局势扰动叠加特朗普 关税政策的反复性可能加剧市场波动,COMEX 黄金主力合约或在 32 ...
黄金:新世界秩序下的宠儿
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-04-21 01:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - Gold prices are influenced by tariff policies, which create uncertainty and trigger risk aversion in the short term. The expectation of stagflation in the U.S. due to tariffs positions gold as an optimal asset allocation choice in the medium term. Long-term, the loosening of global capital ties to dollar assets may lead to increased inflows into gold from various global funds [1][9]. - The Federal Reserve's neutral stance is seen as supportive for gold prices, with recent comments from officials indicating no immediate need for rate hikes, which helps maintain a favorable environment for gold [1][9]. - Copper prices are stabilizing, with improving demand and decreasing domestic inventory. The report suggests that copper mining equities present a good opportunity for long-term investment [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold's price dynamics are primarily driven by tariff uncertainties, which affect market sentiment and asset allocation strategies [1][9]. - The Federal Reserve's current neutral position is beneficial for gold prices, with no immediate rate hikes expected [1][9]. 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 0.78%, underperforming the broader market [12]. - Gold was the best-performing segment, rising by 4.58%, followed by nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony [12]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1. New Energy Metals - Cobalt prices increased, while lithium prices showed a slight decline [21][23]. 3.2. Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 1.63% to 76,000 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices remained stable [31][32]. 3.3. Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices rose by 2.6% to 3,328 USD/ounce, and silver prices increased by 1.8% to 32.47 USD/ounce [44][45].