Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the overall performance of the power sector in the first half of 2025 meets expectations, with thermal power experiencing a decline in revenue but an increase in profit, hydropower remaining stable, and green energy facing pressure [1][2]. Summary by Category Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the power sector (SW) listed companies achieved total operating revenue of 911.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 102.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.44% [2]. - Thermal power generated operating revenue of 572.6 billion yuan, down 3.70% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 6.31% to 44.1 billion yuan [2]. - Hydropower's operating revenue was 87.9 billion yuan, up 4.69% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 10.70% to 26.2 billion yuan [2]. - New energy generation (including nuclear power) faced challenges, with operating revenue of 153.0 billion yuan, a decline of 2.18%, and net profit down 6.42% to 25.1 billion yuan [2]. Thermal Power Insights - The significant drop in coal prices since the beginning of the year has mitigated the pressure from declining volume and price; however, regional price differentiation remains a challenge [2]. - The upcoming comprehensive adjustment of capacity prices in 2026 is expected to reshape the profitability model of thermal power [2]. - Recommended investment themes include stable performance targets with expected stable electricity prices, and high-dividend quality stocks as capital expenditure peaks [2]. Hydropower and Nuclear Power Potential - Hydropower companies are expected to benefit from decreasing interest expenses and the expiration of depreciation on power station units, which will continue to release profit space [3]. - Nuclear power is seeing a normalization in unit approvals, with accelerated investment and technology in nuclear fusion, indicating potential for commercialization [3]. Green Energy Outlook - The "Document 136" promotes the comprehensive entry of new energy into market trading, with rapid installation in the first half of the year leading to increased consumption challenges in the second half, impacting market prices [3]. - Policies supporting green energy consumption, such as direct connections and green certificate policies, are expected to catalyze growth in this sector [3]. - Recommended focus on undervalued green energy stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and wind power operators with stable electricity price expectations [4]. Investment Recommendations - Key thermal power stocks to watch include Huadian International, Huaneng International, Baoneng New Energy, Guangzhou Development, and Guodian Power [4]. - For green energy, prioritize undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market and wind power operators, with a focus on Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [4]. - In hydropower and nuclear sectors, recommended stocks include Yangtze Power, State Power Investment Corporation, Sichuan Investment Energy, China National Nuclear Power, and China General Nuclear Power [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huadian International, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][25]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.15%, with Q2 net profit reaching 1.973 billion yuan, up 24.27% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 59.953 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.98% year-on-year, while Q2 revenue was 33.376 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 10.72% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 112.994 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -3.6%. For 2025, revenue is expected to rise to 126.910 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.703 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.086 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 24.3% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to be 0.49 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.61 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.69 yuan in 2026 [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 11 in 2024 to 9 in 2025, and further to 8 in 2026 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 0.9 in 2024 to 0.8 in 2025 [4]. Operational Data Summary - **Power Generation**: - In the first half of 2025, the company generated 120.621 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year decrease of 6.41% [8]. - The average utilization hours for power generation units were 1,595 hours, down 115 hours year-on-year [8]. - **Installed Capacity**: - As of August 2025, the company's installed capacity reached 77.4 GW, with coal, gas, and hydropower capacities at 54.4 GW, 20.6 GW, and 2.5 GW respectively [8]. - **Cost Management**: - Fuel costs in the first half of 2025 were approximately 37.952 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.28% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [8]. Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits of 7.1 billion yuan in 2025, 8.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.1 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 24.3%, 12.6%, and 14.1% [8]. - The target price for the stock is set at 7.3 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 38% from the current price of 5.33 yuan [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 27, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures weakened again after a weak rebound, giving back most of the gains since August 22. It is recommended to view the market with the idea of a rebound followed by a decline. The stabilization and rebound of coal and coke futures still depend on the recovery of the terminal demand in the steel market [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On August 27, the main contract J2601 of coke futures closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 2.82%; the main contract JM2601 of coking coal futures closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.87%. The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of both contracts showed a downward trend, and the MACD green columns continued to expand for two days [5][7]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in ports remained unchanged. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some areas increased by 30 yuan/ton. The production of independent coking plants increased slightly, while the production of steel mills decreased. The inventory of port coke declined for two consecutive weeks, and steel mills continued to reduce inventory [7][10]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **News**: From August 25 to September 3, some coking enterprises in Henan Province will implement independent production restrictions of 20 - 35%. Since August 26, coking enterprises have raised the coke price. On August 20, Mongolia passed a government resolution on increasing export measures [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of coke, the production of independent coking plants increased slightly, and the production of steel mills decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke has been profitable for two consecutive weeks. In terms of coking coal, from January to July, the year - on - year decline in the import volume of coal and lignite expanded, and the inventory of mines and coking plants changed. The spot price of coking coal is difficult to rise continuously [10]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The performance of some coal and steel enterprises in the first half of 2025 declined. The western oil and gas energy corridor project in Xinjiang achieved a breakthrough. The demand for green power is expected to increase, and the coal price of thermal power is expected to decline. The cement industry in Fujian and Jiangxi provinces held a meeting to discuss "anti - involution". The anti - dumping review of Chinese steel products in Australia was postponed, and the export of Russian thermal coal increased [12][13][14]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the inventory of coke and coking coal, and the basis of futures contracts [16][19][20][32].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decrease in profit for the first half of 2025, with a profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 7.872 billion, down 15.9% year-on-year, while core business profit slightly increased by 0.1% to HKD 8.278 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.356 per share for the first half of 2025 [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's coal-fired power plants was HKD 391.2 per MWh, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, while the average coal price was HKD 823.8 per ton, down 11.8% [2] - The core profit before tax from the renewable energy business was HKD 71.48 billion, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, while the profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 56.37 billion, up 1.5% [3] Group 2: Capacity and Production - The company added approximately 4,839 MW of new wind and solar capacity and 894 MW of new coal-fired capacity in the first half of 2025 [1] - As of the end of June, the company had a total coal-fired power capacity of 39.14 GW, wind power capacity of 25.55 GW, and solar power capacity of 12.97 GW [1] - The company plans to add a total of 10,000 MW of new wind and solar capacity by the end of the year, consistent with its initial target [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increase in core profit from pure coal-fired power operations was 21% year-on-year, driven by a relaxed power supply-demand balance and declining fuel prices [2] - The price difference for coal-fired power plants increased by HKD 9.6 per MWh year-on-year, primarily due to the larger decline in coal prices compared to electricity prices [2] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's wind power plants was HKD 396.8 per MWh, down 11.0% year-on-year, and for solar power plants, it was HKD 304.9 per MWh, down 6.1% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's clean energy performance has been under pressure due to reduced water inflow, with hydroelectric net profit decreasing by 28.2% year-on-year. However, the thermal power segment showed improvement, achieving a net profit of 1.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.89%. Overall, the company reported a profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 2.587 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 0.65% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 23.858 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 2.587 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.65% year-on-year [6]. Clean Energy Segment - The hydroelectric segment faced challenges with a significant drop in sales volume by 23.02%, leading to a net profit of 550 million yuan, down 28.2% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price for hydroelectric power increased slightly to 0.278 yuan/kWh [6]. - The wind power segment saw a net profit increase of 8.36% year-on-year, reaching 2.124 billion yuan, supported by a 26.90% increase in sales volume. However, the average on-grid price decreased by 0.036 yuan/kWh [6]. - The photovoltaic segment's net profit decreased by 36.9% year-on-year to 716 million yuan, impacted by lower resource availability and increased competition [6]. Thermal Power Segment - The thermal power segment's sales volume decreased by 14.03% year-on-year, but net profit improved to 1.428 billion yuan, a growth of 28.89% year-on-year, due to a significant drop in coal prices [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of asset securitization and has a positive outlook on growth opportunities from both internal and external sources. Projected earnings for 2025-2027 are 4.132 billion, 4.744 billion, and 5.132 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.38, and 0.41 yuan [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for H1 2025 but a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite challenges in the power generation sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.113 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.28% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 897 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157.96% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 880 million yuan, up 182.50% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.538 billion yuan and a net profit of 453 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 0.68% and 374.71%, respectively [1] Group 2: Business Operations - The company's total electricity generation in H1 2025 was 22.837 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.52% year-on-year, with thermal power generation down 4.06% [2] - The average on-grid settlement price for thermal power was 440.19 yuan/MWh, a slight decrease of 0.11 yuan/MWh year-on-year [2] - The comprehensive standard coal price was 718.26 yuan/ton, down 124.51 yuan/ton year-on-year, contributing to an increase in gross margin for thermal power generation by 9.38 percentage points [2] Group 3: Project Development - The company is advancing high-quality thermal power and renewable energy projects, with significant progress on the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV and other projects expected to be operational by 2026 [3] - As of H1 2025, the company had a cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity of 686,500 kW and ongoing projects totaling 650,000 kW [3] - The company is also expanding its heating market, with heating supply volume down 4.20% year-on-year, while industrial steam supply increased by 33.54% [3] Group 4: Fundraising and Future Outlook - The company announced a plan to raise up to 2 billion yuan through a private placement to fund the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project [4] - This fundraising is expected to support the advancement of the project and enhance the company's thermal power capacity, thereby improving profitability [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate net profits of 1.139 billion, 1.252 billion, and 1.331 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 114.42%, 9.94%, and 6.32%, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that JianTou Energy (000600) benefits from its advantageous location and high growth in thermal power, with a buy rating given by Dongwu Securities based on the company's strong performance in the first half of 2025 and plans for a 2 billion yuan capital increase for the Xibaipo thermal power project [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, JianTou Energy achieved operating revenue of 11.113 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 897 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 158.0% [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was about 880 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 182.5% [1]. Group 2: Capital Increase and Project Development - JianTou Energy plans to raise up to 2 billion yuan through a private placement to no more than 35 investors, primarily for the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project [1]. - The Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project will consist of two 660,000 kW ultra-supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power units, aimed at supplying power to the southern Hebei power grid and providing centralized heating to Shijiazhuang and surrounding towns [1]. Group 3: Business Segmentation and Growth - The thermal power business generated 10.112 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 90.99% of total revenue, with electricity revenue at 8.778 billion yuan and heat revenue at 1.334 billion yuan [2]. - The company is actively expanding its renewable energy sector, with photovoltaic business revenue reaching 95.48 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.69% [2]. - The report anticipates that the thermal power price and output in Hebei province will lead the industry over the next three years, with a projected tight supply trend [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The profit forecast for JianTou Energy is as follows: 1.34 billion yuan in 2025, 1.56 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.60 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 152.2%, 16.4%, and 2.3% respectively [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 10, 9, and 8 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term buy on thermal power, particularly during market style adjustments [1]. Core Insights - Electricity demand continues to rise, with June's total electricity consumption reaching 867 billion kWh, a year-over-year increase of 5.4% [4]. - The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices, particularly in Qinhuangdao, and expects improved Q3 performance for the industry due to rising thermal power electricity growth and prices [4]. - The National Energy Administration reported that the total installed capacity by the end of June was 3.65 billion kW, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 18.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In June, total electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, with secondary and tertiary industry consumption at 548.8 billion kWh and 175.8 billion kWh, showing year-over-year increases of 3.2% and 9% respectively [4]. - Residential electricity consumption reached 129.1 billion kWh, up 10.8% year-over-year [4]. Power Generation - June's power generation was 796.3 billion kWh, a year-over-year increase of 1.7% [4]. - From January to June, total power generation was 4,537.1 billion kWh, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.8% [4]. Installed Capacity and Investment - By the end of June, the total installed capacity was 3.65 billion kW, with hydro, thermal, nuclear, wind, and solar power showing year-over-year increases of 3%, 4.7%, 4.9%, 23%, and 54% respectively [4]. - Power engineering investment reached RMB 363.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, while grid investment was RMB 291.1 billion, up 14.6% year-over-year [4]. Storage Development - Gansu province is developing storage capacity, with new grid storage reaching 6 million kW, which is 5% of the 70 million kW of wind and solar capacity [4]. - Gansu's new storage capacity is 6.07 million kW and 14.03 million kWh, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 65.6% [4]. Policy Changes - Liaoning's new power reform policy includes a capacity market where coal power and grid storage receive fixed capacity price compensation [4]. - The spot market has a bid cap of RMB 1.1/kWh and a clearing cap of RMB 1.5/kWh, with adjustments for existing and new projects [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the green electricity sector, benefiting from the appreciation of green certificate values and high installation growth [1]. Core Insights - The report continues to recommend investment opportunities in green electricity operators against the backdrop of increasing green certificate values. In June 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 278 million green certificates, a month-on-month increase of 29.33%, involving 198,700 renewable energy projects, with 196 million being tradable certificates, accounting for 70.64% [4][6]. - Key industry data shows that in the first half of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 4.84 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The cumulative power generation was 4.54 trillion kWh, up 0.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [4][13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW public utility index fell by 1.84% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, with declines across various sectors including thermal power and solar energy [9]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in H1 2025 was 4.84 trillion kWh, with growth rates of 8.7% in the primary industry, 2.4% in the secondary industry, 7.1% in the tertiary industry, and 4.1% in urban and rural residential use [13]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation in H1 2025 was 4.54 trillion kWh, with thermal and hydro power generation declining by 2.4% and 2.9% respectively, while wind and solar power generation increased by 11.1% and 18.3% [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in July 2025 was 382 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month [36]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 663 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.91% but a week-on-week increase of 10 RMB/ton [46]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 160.66 meters as of August 1, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year declines of 49.02% and 44.94% respectively [57]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a continued trend of safe and orderly development in the nuclear sector [71]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in solar energy and charging stations, highlighting companies such as Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and China Nuclear Power as key recommendations [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expectations for the industry to perform better than the market in the next six months [4][63]. Core Insights - The national electricity consumption in June 2025 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with total consumption reaching 867 billion kilowatt-hours [3][36]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3][37]. - The national power load reached a historical high of 1.5 billion kilowatts on July 16, 2025, marking a significant increase compared to previous records [3][38]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Public Utilities Index fell by 1.37% during the week of July 14-20, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.06 percentage points [2][12]. - The industry valuation as of July 18, 2025, shows a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 17.2, down from 17.43 the previous week, and a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.73, down from 1.75 [1][23][26]. Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks for the week included Mindong Electric (+6.75%), Jiufeng Energy (+5.52%), and Langfang Development (+4.79%) [2][29]. - Underperforming stocks included Wanqing Energy (-9.25%), Shaoneng Shares (-7.04%), and Huayin Electric (-6.53%) [2][29]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing trend of stable coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi mixed coal price at 634 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [3][42]. - The report also notes the significant trading volumes in green certificates, with a total of 17.42 thousand wind power and 6.43 thousand photovoltaic power certificates traded from July 14 to July 20, 2025 [3][45]. Recommendations - For thermal power, the report suggests a long-term view on demand-side supply and peak regulation, with expectations for stable profit margins [7]. - For hydropower, it recommends positioning in relatively undervalued leading stocks during times of reduced risk appetite [8]. - In the green energy sector, the report advises focusing on leading companies and regions with declining electricity prices [8].