Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Core Viewpoint - As the weather in North China improves, the focus returns to the pressure of new - season supply. The spot market is stable, while the futures market shows a downward adjustment. The price may decline later due to selling pressure. Starch sales are improving, but the inventory is still high. The CBOT corn futures rose 0.95% on Wednesday due to expected lower yields [2] Key Points by Category Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Prices in various ports and regions remained stable on October 23, 2025. For example, the price in Jinzhou Port was 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of Jinzhou Port's main continuous contract increased by 11 to 47 [3] - **Futures Market**: On October 22, most corn futures contracts closed lower. For instance, the corn 01 contract dropped 11 yuan to 2133 yuan, a 0.51% decline. Some corn starch futures contracts showed small fluctuations, like the corn starch 11 contract rising 11 yuan to 2410 yuan, a 0.46% increase [3] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The number of state - reserve granary purchase points increased, aiming to support prices. The meteorological problems in North China weakened the downward price momentum, making it difficult to push down prices [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity adjustment, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. With the dissipation of weather disturbances, the focus is back on supply pressure, increasing short - term price pressure [5] Other Market Data - **US Market**: On October 23, 2025, the CBOT corn main continuous contract price was 423.75, up 4 with a 0.95% increase. The import profit of US corn from the Gulf of Mexico was 200.69 yuan/ton, and that from the US West Coast was 353.72 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are likely to decline in the short term but have limited downside space, with support at the 2000 price level. It is recommended to focus on long - term long - buying opportunities for corn [2][5]. - Different participants in the industry are given corresponding operation suggestions. Traders for procurement management should build inventory, buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases, and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; traders for inventory management with inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level; downstream enterprises for procurement management should buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; downstream enterprises for inventory management with high raw material inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level [2]. - Key data to focus on include the selling pressure at the grass - roots level, changes in the inventory of the breeding industry, and the price difference between corn and wheat [2]. Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Continuous rainy weather has intensified the selling pressure in Henan and other regions, resulting in a significant impact from the overall market supply. The new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions has a large amount of harvest and listing, with high enthusiasm for selling grain at the grass - roots level. The arrival volume at the four northern ports and the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants have reached historical highs [7][8]. Corn Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a three - year low. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of ordinary corn was 890,000 tons, a decrease of 92.92% compared with the same period last year. The estimated import volume of corn in the 2024/25 season is 3 million tons, lower than the 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][18][19]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat has moved out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has decreased. The price of wheat has risen this week. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is around - 290 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 45.22% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 40.00% year - on - year [22][23]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is poor. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn used in compound feed was 32.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 percentage points. The inventory of breeding capacity is at a high level, but the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the breeding profit of broilers, and the breeding profit of laying hens are all in a poor state [31][32][33]. Corn Processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to recover, and the deep - processing production profit has improved rapidly. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises in the country has returned to a neutral level, with the operating rate in Shandong and Heilongjiang regions at a relatively high level. The production of corn starch has increased, and the downstream pick - up volume has recovered. The production profit of corn starch has recovered rapidly, and the profit of corn alcohol manufacturing in major producing provinces has also improved [47][48]. Inventory Channel and Downstream Inventory - Channel and downstream inventories have started to replenish, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of October 10, the inventory at the four northern ports has stopped falling and started to rise, but it is still at a low level. The inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has continued to rise seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises has increased and is at a high level in the past eight years [75][76][77]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch contracts such as C2601, C2605, and C2609, including the basis of corn and starch at different ports and regions, and the spread between different contracts [106][116][117]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of October 16, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 [126].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - month contract of the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures rebounded after quickly breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark, pricing in bullish factors such as increased spot buyers, the judgment of short - term negative and long - term positive impacts of corn quality issues in North China, and the release of downward momentum after the futures price approached the cost line [2]. - The structure of the contracts shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to nearly 100 yuan/ton. The pricing of the forward contracts reflects the market's relatively optimistic sentiment towards the corn market next year, while the near - month contracts are still under pressure from the new grain listing. Although there is a short - term rebound, the upward space may be limited [2]. - The spot market is weaker than the futures market, with prices mostly falling. The listing of new grain continues to dominate the market, and the pressure on the spot market needs time to digest. Attention should be paid to the end of the month when the new grain harvest nears its end, which may be an important node for spot prices [2]. - The CBOT corn futures price has been oscillating narrowly after breaking through support, and the delay in report releases due to the government shutdown has left the market lacking guidance [2]. Summary by Content Market Conditions - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared with October 14, corn futures prices generally rose. Corn 11 rose by 8 yuan to 2,101 yuan, with a 0.38% increase; Corn 01 rose by 16 yuan to 2,127 yuan, with a 0.76% increase; Corn 03 rose by 17 yuan to 2,157 yuan, with a 0.79% increase; Corn 05 rose by 16 yuan to 2,218 yuan, with a 0.73% increase; Corn 07 rose by 14 yuan to 2,232 yuan, with a 0.63% increase; Corn 09 remained unchanged at 2,247 yuan. Corn starch futures prices also mostly rose. Corn starch 11 rose by 16 yuan to 2,401 yuan, with a 0.67% increase; Corn starch 01 rose by 17 yuan to 2,418 yuan, with a 0.71% increase; Corn starch 03 rose by 13 yuan to 2,435 yuan, with a 0.54% increase; Corn starch 05 rose by 12 yuan to 2,529 yuan, with a 0.48% increase; Corn starch 07 rose by 12 yuan to 2,539 yuan, with a 0.47% increase; Corn starch 09 rose by 1 yuan to 2,571 yuan, with a 0.04% increase [3][6]. - **Spot Prices**: Among corn spot prices, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2,130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price at Shekou Port was 2,310 yuan, unchanged; the price in Harbin was 2,000 yuan, down 20 yuan. Among corn starch spot prices, the price in Shandong was 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang was 2,460 yuan, unchanged [3]. - **Base Difference**: The Jinzhou Port main - continuous base difference of corn was 29 yuan, down 18 yuan; the Shandong main - continuous base difference of corn starch was 339 yuan, down 16 yuan [3]. - **US Corn Market**: The CBOT corn main - continuous contract was at 417.25 cents, up 4 cents, with a 0.97% increase. The COBT soybean main - continuous contract was at 1,007 cents, up 0.75 cents, with a 0.07% increase. The CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was at 498.75 cents, down 1.5 cents, with a - 0.3% decrease. The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2,090.31 yuan, up 8.74 yuan, with a 0.42% increase, and the import profit was 219.69 yuan. The duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 1,941.98 yuan, up 8.6 yuan, with a 0.44% increase, and the import profit was 368.02 yuan [29]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The types of spot buyers have increased, which eases market pressure; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, imports remain at a low level, and the market is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the feed demand for corn in the medium term; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - seeking or at the bottom; the number of trucks arriving in Shandong remains high, and the purchase price mostly falls; North China will experience another rainfall process, putting continued pressure on the spot market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. The moving - average lines on the chart show a bearish arrangement, with a weak technical pattern. It may continue to test the support level of the 2100 - yuan integer mark. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [6][61]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1.走势回顾 (Review of Trends) - **Futures Prices**: After the holiday, the corn futures market was weak, showing a downward - opening, low - running, and volatile downward trend. As of last Friday's close, the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous trading day. The market trading was active, with a trading volume of 393,175 lots and an open interest of 591,363 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 413.5 cents per bushel, down 1.14% [4][10][15]. - **Spot Prices**: The weekly average price of national corn last week was 2336 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the Northeast production area, the purchase price of new grain generally decreased. In North China, due to continuous rainfall delaying the harvest, the price fluctuated downward. In the sales area, new grain led the decline, and old grain followed. The price of ports first decreased and then stabilized. The purchase price of Shekou Port was 2370 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from before the National Day [5][17][20]. 3.2.上周相关信息回顾 (Review of Relevant Information Last Week) - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending October 2, 2025, would be between 1.2 million and 2 million tons. From January to August this year, Russia exported more than 287,000 tons of corn to China, three times the export volume of the same period last year. In September, Brazil's corn export volume was 7.563 million tons. In October 2025, Brazil's corn export volume is expected to be between 5.81 million and 6.3 million tons, with an average of 6.06 million tons, a 6.8% increase from October last year. As of October 7, Kazakhstan had harvested 13.6 million tons of grains. As of October 8, Ukraine's grain export volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.937 million tons, a decrease of 4.8 million tons or 40.9% from the same period last year. As of October 3, the daily average ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels per day. As of October 10, more than half of the autumn grain in the country had been harvested. As of October 10, Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 had reached 33.03 million tons [21][22]. 3.3.玉米供需格局分析 (Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern) - **Feed Enterprises' Inventory**: As of October 9, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from the previous week, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease and a 6.06% year - on - year decrease. During the holiday, the inventory slightly decreased because enterprises mainly consumed previous orders, with limited new purchase orders [26]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory**: The total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 2.334 million tons, a 14.64% increase from before the holiday but a 14% decrease year - on - year. The inventory decreased as new grain entered the market, and enterprises mainly made rigid replenishments for short - term production needs [29]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption**: Last week, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [34]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation**: Last week, the total corn processing volume was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from before the holiday. The weekly corn starch output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from before the holiday. The weekly startup rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from before the holiday [39]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation**: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 235 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Shandong, it was - 81 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Heilongjiang, it was - 178 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton month - on - month. Deep - processing enterprises generally adopted a "low - inventory + fast - turnover" strategy [44]. 3.4.关联品情况分析 (Analysis of Related Products) - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the corn starch market was weak. The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with before the holiday. The concentrated listing of new corn dragged down the price of corn starch, and downstream buyers were in a wait - and - see mood [50][51]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the pig price dropped significantly. As of last Friday, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. After the double festivals, the pig market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises decreased after October 5, and the price of white - striped pork fell in tandem with the pig price [59][60]. 3.5.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [61]. 3.6.操作策略 (Operation Strategies) - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for near - month contracts. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold reverse spreads. - **Options**: Construct a bear - spread strategy [7][62].

研究所 上市逐步增加 玉米偏弱运行 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年10月10日 研究所 假期后两个交易日，玉米期货震荡偏弱运行，近远月价差走低。现货长假期间下跌明显，各地都有不同程度走弱，东北产区上 市压力开始体现，下跌幅度较大。北港现货下跌明显，对盘面基差大幅走弱。基本面来看，新作玉米增产预期较强，加之成本 下降，对市场心理形成一定压制。目前东北主产区玉米即将进入集中收割期，上市压力会明显上升，同时，华北黄淮等区域的 新粮也将陆续投放市场，新玉米供应有放量之势。需求端来看，鸡蛋、生猪价格大幅走弱，养殖利润恶化，饲料需求预期不佳 ；深加工利润仍然较差，开机率也维持低位。用粮企业在下游消费不乐观的情景下，维持低库存策略，短期需求利多不足。不 过，由于进口替代性谷物有限及小麦-玉米价差再度走高，后期用粮企业补库需求仍是潜在支撑因素。从估值来看，目前盘面 贴水，且逼近新作集港成本，预计玉米期货随着供应压力逐步上升维持震荡偏弱格局，但继续下行空间不大。操作上，短线交 易。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 研究所 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米季报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，继续南美巴西、阿根廷增产之后，北半球的美国、乌克兰产 量预估再次增加，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境，国 际玉米价格将延续低位运行。国内方面，目前产情总体较好，预计产量较上年有 一定增长，且成本下降，未来上市压力较大。旧作来说，尽管粮源较少，但新旧 衔接问题不大，持粮商出货积极性较高。需求端来看，近期小麦与玉米价差有所 修复，后期饲料企业或调回玉米使用比例。但在养殖行业利润低迷且政策引导去 产能的预期下，其大幅增加库存动力有限。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外 部贸易环境复杂、居民收入增速放缓等多重不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差， 深加工利润不佳，行业开机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。总体来看，短期旧作 余粮偏紧，对现货及近端合约有一定支撑，但在新上市压力将近背景下，整体玉 米市场中期仍然是处于承压寻底阶段。不过，考虑到去年贸易商囤粮盈利较好， 25/26 年新玉米上市后贸易商逢低抄底意愿或有提升，从而限制玉米继续下跌空 间。操作上，偏弱震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, domestic imported corn auctions and wheat for feed continue to supplement the market, and spring and summer corn are also being listed, increasing market circulation. However, downstream enterprises have long - term contracts, so short - term purchasing power is weak, and corn prices are oscillating at a low level. Some new - season corn in domestic regions is listed early, and the opening purchase price is slightly higher year - on - year, which is beneficial to market sentiment. Corn futures prices rebounded from the low level but lack continuous upward momentum, and recently, bulls tend to take profits and prices have declined, so it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, the current northern raw - material corn is in the new - old alternation stage. Some enterprises have new overhauls due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the market is weak with enterprises in a loss state. The industry's operating rate is low. Supply pressure is weak and demand has slightly improved, reducing inventory pressure. However, industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch are good, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Affected by the decline of corn and its own poor demand, corn starch prices have weakened recently and are weaker than corn [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2477 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2202 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is 5 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures open interest: 852554 lots for yellow corn (active contract), down 7872 lots; 210207 lots for corn starch (active contract), up 10807 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 47397 lots for corn and - 43645 lots for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 51874 lots for yellow corn, down 85 lots; 9950 lots for corn starch, up 544 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 200 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 417 cents/bushel, down 2.5 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly) is 1454514 contracts, down 2187 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 52455 contracts, up 18485 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Factory - gate price of corn starch: 2365.49 yuan/ton in Changchun, down 1.96 yuan/ton; 2800 yuan/ton in Weifang, unchanged; 2730 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, unchanged. Average spot price of corn is 2310 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn: CIF price is 1925.56 yuan/ton, down 1.02 yuan/ton; international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 83 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is - 6.96 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: average spot price of wheat is 2426 yuan/ton, up 1.06 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 212 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 94 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area and production of corn: in the US, sown area is 398.93 million hectares, up 0.77 million hectares, and production is 35.89 million tons; in Brazil, sown area data is not provided, and production is 131 million tons; in Argentina, sown area data is not provided, and production is 53 million tons; in China, sown area is 295 million hectares, and production is 44.3 million tons; in Ukraine, production is 30.5 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory: 73.5 million tons in southern ports (weekly), down 3.5 million tons; 271.1 million tons in deep - processing enterprises (weekly), down 23.1 million tons; 156 million tons in northern ports (weekly), down 19 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch is 15940 tons, up 1440 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: total inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 122.6 million tons as of September 10, down 3.9 million tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 3.08%, a monthly decline of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 40.27% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: monthly production is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons. Sample feed corn inventory days are 27.63 days (weekly), down 0.5 days [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: - 82 yuan/ton in Shandong, up 3 yuan/ton; - 65 yuan/ton in Hebei, down 2 yuan/ton; - 154 yuan/ton in Jilin, down 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate: 46.21% for alcohol enterprises (weekly), up 3.34%; 47.14% for starch enterprises (weekly), down 0.56% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility of corn: 8.69% for 20 - day (daily), up 0.15%; 6.79% for 60 - day (daily), up 0.14% [2]. - Implied volatility of corn options: 8.79% for at - the - money call options (daily), down 0.1%; 8.79% for at - the - money put options (daily), down 0.1% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Analysts expect the weekly export sales report to show that the net export sales volume of US corn from September 1 - 4, 2025, may range from 90 to 240 million tons [2]. - From September 1 - 5, Brazil's corn export volume was 130 million tons, compared with 642 million tons in September last year [2]. - As of the week ending September 7, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US corn was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, but lower than 69% of the previous week and higher than 64% of the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The corn market is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Due to high yields, imported corn supplements the market supply, and the overall supply is sufficient. The price difference between corn and wheat remains in the substitutable range, with wheat being widely used as a substitute for corn. Alongside the substitution of millet and other grains, these factors suppress the corn price. The planting area of new crops is high, and the expected yield per unit is good, so the new crop yield is still expected to be abundant. The lowest planting cost of the new crop on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift downward. Under multiple negative factors, it is expected that c2509 will oscillate downward, and the later price center is expected to shift downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Corn Supply - **Supply**: The domestic corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the growth of new - season corn is good. The current main variable is the weather during the growth period, especially rainfall. The NDVI data shows that the growth of corn in Northeast China is significantly better than in previous years, while in North China, although affected by extreme weather, the growth is still around the annual average. Overall, the expected yield per unit of corn in the main production areas is good [9][10]. - **Import**: The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the total corn import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The USDA estimates that China's corn imports in the 2024/25 season will be 4 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][19][20]. - **Substitutes**: Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes is decreasing. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is near parity, and wheat has a high cost - effectiveness, exerting great pressure on the feed - use substitution of corn. In June 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 23.83% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 32.71% year - on - year [29][30]. Demand - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, the parent - stock of white - feather broilers, and the hatching volume of laying - hen chicks are all at high levels, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs is at a low level, the profit of broiler breeding is seasonally rising, and the profit of laying - hen breeding has deteriorated [34][35][36]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has rebounded to a neutral level, with Shandong and Heilongjiang showing relatively high rates. The corn starch production has also increased, but the downstream提货量 is low, and the production profit is severely in the red. The consumption of corn by corn alcohol enterprises has slowed down, and the operating rate has reached a new low [55][56]. Inventory - **Corn Trade and Inventory**: The inventory of trade channels and downstream users is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 8, the inventory of the four northern ports continued to decline, and the domestic trade inventory of southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises continued to decrease, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises continued to reach a new high in the past eight years [83][84][85]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of corn 01, 05, 09 contracts at Jinzhou Port and the basis data of starch 01, 05, 09 contracts in Jilin area on August 14, 2025 [117][119][121]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread data of corn 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and the spread data of starch 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, as well as the spread data between corn and starch 01, 05, 09 contracts [127][128][129]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 14, 2025, the corn warehouse receipt quantity was 222,298 hands, and the corn starch warehouse receipt quantity was 25,000 hands [140]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - **Traders**: For procurement management, build inventory and seek to buy corn at low prices. Use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option at an entry price of 8. For inventory management, sell corn at high prices and use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: For procurement management, when in need of corn raw materials and worried about price increases, use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option. For inventory management, when the raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4].

Core Insights - The corn prices in various regions of China show a mixed trend, with some areas experiencing a decline while others remain stable [1][2] - The U.S. corn export inspection report indicates no exports to mainland China for the week ending August 14, maintaining a zero export volume for consecutive weeks [3] - The USDA's crop progress report shows a slight decline in the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn, with the current rating at 71%, compared to 72% the previous week [3] Price Trends - North Port corn prices range from 2290 to 2310 CNY/ton, down by 10-20 CNY/ton; South Port prices remain stable at 2390-2400 CNY/ton [1] - A detailed price list for yellow corn across various provinces shows prices ranging from 2120 CNY/ton in Heilongjiang to 2480 CNY/ton in Shandong [2] - The futures market closed at 2170.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.60% with a trading volume of 353,719 contracts [2] Market Analysis - The ongoing auction of imported corn in Northeast China and the good growth of the new season corn are putting pressure on the current market sentiment, leading to a more active selling behavior among grain holders [4] - The demand from feed enterprises remains weak, with many deep processing companies continuing to adjust their inventory based on supply and demand [4]

Report Title - New Grain Harvest Approaching, Corn Continues to Weaken - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report, August 17, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the overall corn spot market was weak. In Shandong, the supply was low, and enterprises significantly pressured prices in the first half of the week but with less intensity later, and the spot price stabilized. In Northeast China, it was also weak due to auctions. At the north - south ports, the spot price was relatively strong as inventory continued to decline. The futures price first rose and then fell, with a long upper shadow on the weekly line. The basis weakened slightly, and the C2511 contract was significantly weaker than other contracts due to the main contract shift. Fundamentally, with the continuation of reserve grain auctions and the approaching new grain harvest, the willingness of grain - holding traders to sell increased, strengthening the supply pressure. On the demand side, although feed production increased, policies to reduce pig production capacity and average weight suppressed feed demand expectations. Meanwhile, wheat still had an advantage in substituting for corn, and the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn was restricted. Additionally, the profit of the deep - processing sector remained poor, negatively affecting consumption. Overall, the later corn supply - demand situation will tend to be loose, and the market will maintain a pattern of oscillating to find the bottom. The operation should be based on a bearish - oscillating mindset [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook 1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided 1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - The overall corn spot market was weak last week. In Shandong, the supply was low, enterprises pressured prices in the first half of the week and with less intensity later, and the spot price stabilized. In Northeast China, it was weak due to auctions, and at the north - south ports, the spot price was relatively strong as inventory declined [7] 1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional价差 - Not provided 1.4 Corn Selling Progress - Not provided 1.5 Corn Import - Not provided 1.6 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand - Although feed production increased, policies to reduce pig production capacity and average weight suppressed feed demand expectations, and the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn was restricted [7] 1.7 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand: Feed Output - Not provided 1.8 Deep - processing Demand - The profit of the deep - processing sector remained poor, negatively affecting consumption [7] 1.9 Substitutes - Wheat still had an advantage in substituting for corn, restricting the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn [7] 1.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided 2. International Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided 2.2 Corn Starch Spot - A table shows the price data of corn starch spot from August 1st to August 14th, including different price levels such as the lowest, highest, etc. [89] 2.3 Corn - Starch Price Difference - Not provided 2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided 2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided 2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided 3. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided 3.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress - Not provided 3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided 3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided 4. Corn Starch Market Dynamics - Not provided Weather Forecast - In the next 10 days (August 15 - 24), cumulative precipitation in areas such as eastern North China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, northern Shandong, southern Jiangnan, South China, most of Southwest China, and southern Tibet will be 50 - 80 mm. In the next 11 - 14 days (August 25 - 28), the main rainfall areas will be in eastern North China, central and southern Northeast China, southern South China, Yunnan, western Sichuan Basin, and southeastern Tibet, with cumulative precipitation of 20 - 40 mm and locally over 50 mm. Precipitation in these areas will be 30% - 70% more than the same period of the year, and locally twice as much [36]