Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall funds are favorable, and tend to enter the market through fund channels during the bull market consolidation phase. The future stock index market will revolve around "anti - involution" and technology, with corresponding opportunities in the CSI 500 for "anti - involution" and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 for technology [5][11][40]. - The RMB appreciation momentum is limited, with short - term expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.10 - 7.20. The release of pre - holiday settlement demand supports the RMB, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been priced in advance, and the resilience of employment and consumption limits the downside space of the US dollar [14][17]. - For the container shipping index, the valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and the November and December contracts need to focus on the rhythm of price increase announcements and actual implementation. The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation difference [21][24][29]. - Seasonally, there are risks of pre - holiday adjustments in stock indices and pre - holiday depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, both of which recover after the holiday. In terms of commodities, it is advisable to hold gold during the holiday, and pay attention to coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors one month after the holiday. In terms of trends, overseas inflation expectations are dominated by currency, benefiting gold, and domestic focus is on supply - side policies, with opportunities in black sectors, new energy metals, chemicals, and pigs [36][40]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomics - During the National Day holiday from October 1st to 8th, there are 6 overseas trading days. Key events and data at home and abroad around the holiday include China's September official PMI, the US government's temporary expenditure bill, and various countries' employment and economic data [2][3]. - Domestically, pay attention to high - frequency economic data such as consumption, travel, and real estate sales during the holiday. In the US, there are risks of government shutdown and weakening employment data, which increase the expectation of interest rate cuts [4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, the fund positions showed a seasonal decline, but the share of equity funds increased by 123 billion this month. The share of theme and industry ETFs continued to rise, risk appetite continued to improve, and the margin trading balance reached a new high, but its influence weakened marginally [5]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciation momentum is limited. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.10 - 7.20. Pre - holiday settlement demand supports the RMB, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been priced in advance, and the resilience of employment and consumption limits the downside space of the US dollar. The on - shore swap points have recently risen, partially hedging the excessive RMB appreciation momentum. Attention should be paid to the impact of US economic data and policies during and after the holiday [14][17]. Container Shipping Index - October contract: The valuation is becoming clearer. The freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be between 1000 - 1050 points. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week rises by $500/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of about $1400/1500/1900/FEU, equivalent to about 1130 - 1150 points on the SCFIS. If the price increase fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [21]. - December contract: It is far from delivery. First, trade the price increase expectation (announcement of the November price increase letter around mid - October), then the actual implementation of the price increase letter, then trade the price increase expectation again (announcement of the December price increase letter around mid - November), and finally trade the actual implementation of the price increase letter until delivery. Due to frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [24]. - February 2026 contract: There may be a large expectation difference. If the "price high area" of "signing to support prices" is postponed to mid - January 2026, the February contract may be higher than the December contract [29]. Strategy - Seasonally, stock indices may adjust before the holiday and rise after the holiday, and the RMB exchange rate may depreciate before the holiday and recover after the holiday. For commodities, holding gold during the holiday has low risk, and pay attention to coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors one month after the holiday [36]. - In terms of trends, overseas inflation expectations are dominated by currency, benefiting gold, and domestic focus is on supply - side policies, with opportunities in black sectors, new energy metals, chemicals, and pigs [40].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant rally following a series of policy measures, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating a potential shift from a localized bull market to a comprehensive bull market [1][9]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded to 3,336.5 points by September 30, 2024, with a record trading volume of 2.59 trillion yuan, and has since continued to rise, reaching a recent high of 3,899.96 points [2]. - Over the past year, the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 65%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 108%, reflecting strong performance in the equity market [2]. - As of September 24, 2024, 99.8% of the 7,621 active equity funds reported positive returns, with 857 funds achieving over 100% returns [2][3]. Fund Performance and Growth - The total issuance scale of active equity funds reached 119.64 billion yuan, a 55.6% increase compared to the same period in the previous year [3]. - Notable funds include the Debon Xin Xing Value Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, which achieved a return of 271.51%, leading the performance rankings [3]. Sector Focus and Investment Strategy - High-performing funds are primarily focused on sectors such as AI computing and technology, with significant investments in companies within the electronics and communications sectors [4]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a deep understanding of industry trends and maintaining discipline in investment decisions, which has contributed to superior returns [4]. ETF Market Growth - The total scale of ETFs surpassed 3 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, with significant contributions from stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs, which saw a year-on-year growth of over 90% [5][6]. - As of September 24, 2024, the stock ETF market reached 3.6 trillion yuan, with several ETFs achieving impressive returns exceeding 100% [6]. Future Market Outlook - The combination of strong performance from active equity funds and ETFs is expected to attract more capital into the market, potentially leading to a comprehensive bull market [7][9]. - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding the market's future, citing stable domestic fundamentals and the positive impact of recent policies aimed at boosting economic growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent strong performance of technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and battery sectors, indicating a clear trend in the market where various funds are actively participating in different segments of technology [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market has seen significant gains, with indices like the Hang Seng Technology Index outperforming others, suggesting a shift towards technology-driven asset revaluation in China [3][4]. - The article notes that foreign capital is showing increased interest in the Chinese market, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, which are expected to benefit from liquidity influx [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The author plans to shift investments from overseas markets to domestic channels, specifically through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, to reduce costs and avoid high taxation on overseas investment income [4][6]. - The article discusses the advantages of investing in Hong Kong stocks, including the absence of capital gains tax on trading profits for domestic investors, although dividend income is subject to a tax rate of 20% to 28% [6][7]. Group 3: ETF Analysis - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) is highlighted as a promising investment, tracking the National Index of Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, which includes high-quality companies with significant market capitalization [8][11]. - The ETF's selection criteria focus on companies with a market cap above 300 billion HKD and a revenue growth rate exceeding 10% over the past two years, ensuring a high standard of quality among its holdings [11][19]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - The article compares the performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF with the Hang Seng Technology Index, noting that the former has a more diversified portfolio, including sectors like new energy vehicles and biotechnology [17][19]. - Current valuations for both indices are considered attractive, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF showing a lower valuation percentile compared to historical averages, suggesting potential for future growth [19][22].

Group 1 - The report by Deloitte indicates a steady development trend in the A-share market for the first three quarters of this year, with an increase in both the number of new stocks and financing amounts, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors [1] - Deloitte forecasts that there will be 78 new stocks listed in the A-share market by the third quarter of 2025, raising a total of 771 billion yuan, which represents a 13% increase in the number of new stocks and a 61% increase in total financing compared to the same period last year [1] - The report highlights that the new stock issuance in the A-share market is progressing steadily in line with regulatory policies, demonstrating the strength of the mainland's new stock market as it ranks among the top five globally in new stock financing [1] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, Deloitte anticipates that there will be 66 new stocks listed in the first three quarters of this year, raising 1,823 billion HKD, which is a 47% increase in the number of new stocks and a 228% increase in financing compared to the same period last year [1] - The report also predicts that there will be six large-scale new stock listings in Hong Kong during this period [1] - With the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, it is expected that more overseas funds will seek high-growth investment opportunities in the Asian markets, including mainland China and Hong Kong, providing a favorable environment for large new stock issuances in Hong Kong in the fourth quarter [2]

Market Analysis - The A-share market exhibited a V-shaped trend with a slight decline, while the bond market experienced a pullback, and precious metals continued to rise to new highs [2][4] - The technology sector remains the main focus of the market, driven by a series of policy events and the upcoming National Day holiday, which may increase profit-taking pressure [4][6] - The market showed signs of differentiation, with a significant number of stocks declining, while semiconductor equipment and banking sectors led the gains [6] Bond Market - The bond market saw an overall decline, with long-term bonds performing weaker than short-term ones, as the 30-year bond futures contract fell by 0.67% [7][11] - The market is characterized by a tight balance, with the central bank's operations indicating a net withdrawal of funds, while short-term rates remain loose [11] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has diminished, leading to greater adjustments in long-term rates, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 1.05 basis points to 1.7980% [11] Commodity Market - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, reached new highs, with gold prices surpassing 3750 CNY per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [8][12] - The industrial commodities market is experiencing a downturn, influenced by supply-side pressures, while precious metals are expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to global liquidity conditions [10][12] - The market is witnessing a divergence where precious metals are strong while industrial commodities are weak, driven by supply and demand dynamics [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift in market style from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation," with a focus on strong logical segments within the technology sector and the value of dividend stocks [12][14] - In the commodity sector, precious metals and non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from global liquidity, while industrial products are influenced by supply-side dynamics [12][14] - The report highlights key investment opportunities in various sectors, including precious metals, artificial intelligence, domestic chips, and consumer goods, with a focus on monitoring economic recovery and policy developments [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to be a leading business media outlet in China, focusing on technology, AGI, and societal evolution while providing reliable information and insights to help readers understand complex changes in the world [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company, established on April 1, 2019, has a team of 49 members with an average age of 31.8 years, and has documented significant companies, figures, and business events in China over the past six years [2]. - The company emphasizes professionalism and believes in the power of written content to engage human curiosity and rationality [6]. Group 2: Content and Audience Engagement - The company seeks to create content that prompts readers to reflect and understand the complexities of the world, aiming to provide reliable information and highlight overlooked voices [5]. - The company aspires to host the best interviews with contemporary Chinese entrepreneurs [5]. Group 3: Recruitment and Work Environment - The company is looking for writers with a deep understanding of business, technology, and social change, who can tell stories, conduct interviews, and analyze complex systems [7]. - The company values quality over quantity in reporting, with a KPI of one long report per month, allowing ample time for investigation and revision [8]. Group 4: Compensation and Resources - The company offers competitive salaries within the industry [9]. - The company provides excellent interview resources and a supportive team environment, with offices located in Beijing and Shanghai [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the market is currently in a correction phase, with a slow bull market outlook, and there is optimism for technology and Hong Kong stock opportunities in the future [7][9]. Group 2 - In the past two weeks, the main funds have seen a net outflow of 310.57 billion, with no industry experiencing net inflow. The top three industries with the highest net outflow are electric equipment, computers, and electronics [5][10]. - The current margin trading balance is 24,024.65 billion, an increase of 5.39% compared to the previous period. The financing balance is 23,857.60 billion, and the securities lending balance is 167.06 billion. The average daily trading volume for margin trading is 2,800.39 billion, which is a decrease of 11.58% [12][13]. - In terms of market performance, the number of declining stocks has exceeded that of rising stocks in the past two weeks. The top three industries with the highest gains are electronics, real estate, and machinery, while the top three industries with the largest declines are banks, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals [5][26]. Group 3 - The overall strength analysis score for all A-shares is 4.85, with the CSI 300 score at 4.66, the ChiNext score at 4.83, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board score at 5.40, indicating a neutral market condition [6][30][32]. - The strong and weak analysis indicates that the market is currently in a relatively weak phase, suggesting that investors may consider maintaining a low position and observing the market [9][33].

Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first seven months of the year, China's goods trade import and export totaled 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - In July alone, the total value of goods trade reached 3.91 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - High-tech and high-value-added products have become the main drivers of trade growth [1] Group 2: Structural Changes - Trade diversification has shown significant results, with rapid growth in trade with emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa [1] - The number of trade entities has expanded, with private enterprises maintaining their position as the main force in foreign trade [1] - Service trade has achieved breakthrough growth, with knowledge-intensive services maintaining a surplus [1] Group 3: Regional Contributions - Zhejiang province's cross-border e-commerce ecosystem supported foreign trade development, with a total import and export value of 2.73 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, up 6.6% [1] - Fujian's foreign trade is driven by new energy and basic materials, with lithium battery exports reaching 76.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.96% [1] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - High concentration in export markets, similar industrial structures, and severe homogenization competition remain persistent issues for China's foreign trade [2] - There is a need for multi-faceted measures to maintain stable and progressive foreign trade, enhancing quality and quantity [2] - Emphasis on increasing technological content in products and supporting strategic emerging industries through R&D and financing [2] Group 5: Service Trade and Digitalization - Encouragement for "China services" to go global, supporting the integration of service trade with goods trade [3] - Development of overseas logistics platforms and warehouses to enhance local service capabilities of Chinese brands [3] - Establishment of a digital comprehensive service platform for offshore trade to streamline data and regulatory processes [3] Group 6: Global Governance and Standards - Active participation in global economic governance to enhance China's voice in international trade rule-making [4] - Support for a multilateral trade system centered around the World Trade Organization and participation in emerging topics like digital trade [4] - Encouragement for domestic enterprises and industry associations to engage in international standardization activities [4]

Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing a contraction, with major players having exited, leaving weaker participants struggling to recover losses [1] - Today's trading volume is lower than last Friday, indicating a cautious sentiment ahead of the holiday [1][4] Sector Performance - Technology stocks are rising, but other sectors such as liquor, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, banking, and insurance are declining, suggesting a shift in capital from consumer and dividend stocks to technology [1][6] - The main focus for investment should be on technology sectors, particularly robotics and semiconductors, rather than consumer or dividend stocks [6] Trading Dynamics - Buy-side strength is at 1990+, with limited selling pressure at 360+, indicating a manageable outflow of funds [4] - The majority of fund outflows occurred on Thursday and Friday, suggesting that any further selling pressure before the holiday may be minimal [4] Stock Trends - A total of 70 stocks hit the daily limit up, with 57 being genuine limit ups, indicating some bullish activity in the market [5] - There are 1434 stocks that have declined for three consecutive days, which is considered normal, while 208 stocks have declined for five days, indicating a lack of strong support [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on technology stocks as the main line of investment, while avoiding sectors that are experiencing consistent declines [6][10] - It is suggested that maintaining a well-structured portfolio before the holiday is a prudent strategy, as significant market movements are not expected until after the holiday [1][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Views - In October 2025, the intensity of convertible bond clause games may rise again. There are 47 convertible bonds whose non - downward - revision cooling periods end in October, significantly higher than August - September. And 18 convertible bonds' non - call cooling periods end, the second - highest this year [2][6]. - In terms of downward revision, among the convertible bonds whose downward - revision cooling periods end before October 2025, 6 convertible bonds worth over 2 billion yuan will start downward - revision counting. The proportion of convertible bonds proposing downward - revision announcements in 2025 is 12.5%. As the remaining term shortens and the equity market reaches a historical high, the probability of downward revision may increase. Since late August, the valuation of convertible bonds has declined, opening up price space for some games [2][8]. - Regarding call provisions, 21 convertible bonds end their call cooling periods before October 2025. Excluding Jingyuan Convertible Bond and Jinlun Convertible Bond, the parities of the rest are above 130 yuan as of September 19. With the continued prosperity of the equity market, the call pressure on individual bonds is not low. The convertible bond market scale is about to fall below 60 billion yuan, and the supply - demand contradiction persists, so the valuation may be strongly supported [2][13]. - As the equity market's rise slows down and the convertible bond valuation remains high, alpha returns from convertible bonds become more important. Investors may pay more attention to clause games. It is recommended to cherish the window period and select relevant targets from the clause + theme dimensions, especially those with certain demands and price space [2][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Attention to the upcoming wave of convertible bond clause games - In October 2025, there are 47 convertible bonds whose non - downward - revision cooling periods end, and 18 whose non - call cooling periods end, providing more clause - game opportunities compared to the same period in the past five years [2][6]. - In the downward - revision aspect, 6 large - scale convertible bonds will start downward - revision counting. The probability of downward revision may increase due to factors such as the short remaining term and high equity market position. Since late August, the valuation decline has created game space [2][8]. - For call provisions, 21 convertible bonds end their call cooling periods before October 2025. After exclusions, most have parities above 130 yuan. The call pressure is not low, and the valuation may be supported by the supply - demand contradiction [2][13]. 2. Market trends in a week - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 1.30% for the week, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 473.61, down 1.55%. The top - rising industries in the stock market are power equipment and new energy (+3.61%), coal (+3.59%), and consumer services (+3.52%), while the declining industries are comprehensive (-4.09%), banking (-4.09%), and non - ferrous metals (-3.93%) [15]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 79 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 18%. The top - five gainers are Jingxing Convertible Bond (26.23%), Hengshuai Convertible Bond (21.84%), etc. 193 convertible bonds' conversion premium ratios increased, accounting for 45%. The top - five in valuation change are Jiete Convertible Bond (16.86%), Jingke Convertible Bond (14.61%), etc. [17]. 3. Important shareholders' convertible bond reduction - Companies that issued convertible bond reduction announcements this week are Jieneng Fengdian, Tianhao Energy, Jianfan Biology, and Nanjing Medicine [24]. - Many companies' major shareholders have reduced their holdings of convertible bonds, such as Zhejiang Yuesheng Group's reduction of Xingang Convertible Bond [25]. 4. Convertible bond issuance progress - The approval rhythm in the primary market has accelerated. Huichuangda (650 million yuan), Huaxiang Co., Ltd. (1.308 billion yuan), etc. are at the board - of - directors' proposal stage. Tonghe Technology (522 million yuan), Weike Precision (630 million yuan), etc. have passed the general meeting of shareholders. Shenyu Co., Ltd. (500 million yuan), Ruike Da (1 billion yuan) have passed the issuance review committee [26][27]. 5. Private EB project update - There is no progress update on private EB projects this week [28]. 6. Style & Strategy: The convertible bond market style was flat this week - All styles in the convertible bond market were not prominent. As of the last trading day of this week, the excess return of high - rated convertible bonds over low - rated ones was 0.10pct, that of large - amount convertible bonds over small - amount ones was - 0.22pct, and that of equity - biased convertible bonds over debt - biased ones was 0.03pct [30]. 7. One - week convertible bond valuation performance: Convertible bond valuation declined - The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium ratio fell to 28.66%, down 0.34% from the previous week, at the 84% historical percentile in the past six months and 92.4% in the past year. The median conversion premium ratio of all - caliber convertible bonds decreased by 1.4pct to 25.91%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium ratio (excluding banks) decreased by 0.62pct to 39.45% [39]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium ratio was 9.71%, down 1.75pct from the previous week, at the 77.3% historical percentile in the past six months. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium ratio was 10.1%, down 1.91pct from the previous week, at the 73.9% historical percentile in the past six months [39]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of this week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 0 below the debt floor, and 4 with a YTM greater than 3, at the 9.1%, 0%, and 10% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively [41]. - The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 2.68%, 4.56pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield. The median YTM of AA - to AA + debt - biased convertible bonds was - 1.24%, 3.36pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [45]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio decreased. The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio considering various factors was 14.37%, at the 82.6% historical percentile in the past six months and 66.1% since 2018. The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio considering only the debt floor was at the 81.7% historical percentile in the past six months and 29.7% since 2018 [52].