国家发改委召开5月份新闻发布会。会上，委新闻发言人李超表示，在加快落实既定政策基础上，国家 发改委已会同有关部门加快推出稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。目前有关部门正在抓紧落 实，大部分政策举措计划将在6月底前落地。同时，国家发改委还将坚持常态化、敞口式加强政策预研 和储备，不断完善稳就业稳经济政策工具箱，确保有需要的时候能够及时出台实施。(证券时报) ...

中央政治局会议强调"不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱"，国务院常务会议专门研究推出五大领 域"组合拳"。这些政策举措是对中央经济工作会议、全国两会部署任务的细化与完善，体现了决策层以 高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的决心和信心。 稳就业稳经济是一场必须打赢的攻坚战，因势利导用好政策工具箱正当其时。 5月7日，央行推出降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点、降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点等10项政 策举措，以适度宽松的货币政策助力经济高质量发展。金融监管总局、证监会当天也同步推出多项增量 政策，以一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 就在一周前，民营经济促进法经十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过，将于5月20日起施行。 舆论普遍认为，作为国内首部专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，民营经济促进法聚焦发展短板，回 应民企关切，提振市场信心，以"破题者"姿态为民营经济健康发展创造了更广阔空间。 此外，针对就业市场"错配"问题，人社部门推出"技能照亮前程"行动，通过四位一体项目化培训模式， 将农民工、高校毕业生与先进制造业需求精准对接。针对关税冲击，商务部门及时将失业保险稳岗返还 比例提高至60%（中小微 ...

Economic Growth and Policy Response - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for the annual growth target of around 5% [1] - The positive economic performance is attributed to proactive macro policies and some companies engaging in "export rush" to avoid high tariffs [1] - Despite the better-than-expected performance, there are still issues with insufficient effective demand that need to be addressed for sustained recovery [1] External Trade and Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed comprehensive tariffs, negatively impacting global trade and economic conditions [1] - In response to the adverse external environment, China has intensified its economic stabilization policies [1] - The Chinese government is focused on improving employment and economic stability through a series of specific measures [1][2] Financial Policy Measures - A package of financial policies will be introduced to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and support for consumption and investment [2] - The government aims to enhance the financial system to support the real economy and stabilize the housing market [2] Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - There is a need for targeted support for foreign trade enterprises affected by U.S. tariffs, including market diversification and promoting new business models like cross-border e-commerce [7] - The government should monitor and provide tailored support for vulnerable small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [7] Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - To boost consumption, it is essential to create more consumption scenarios and expand into underdeveloped sectors such as the silver economy and sports entertainment [8] - Increasing residents' income through various measures, including wage growth and subsidies, is crucial for enhancing consumer spending [9] Investment Strategies - Effective investment should align with consumer demand and public needs, focusing on projects that enhance living standards, such as charging facilities and parking spaces [10] - The government is encouraged to remove restrictions in the consumption sector to stimulate investment and consumption [11] Market Confidence and Expectations - The introduction of significant reforms and policies is expected to stabilize market expectations and enhance confidence in the economy [12] - Strengthening policy implementation and market interaction is vital for maintaining stable expectations and boosting market confidence [12]

近日，稳就业稳经济政策工具箱再次"上新"，一套支持就业、稳定外贸发展、促进消费、积极扩大有效 投资、营造稳定发展良好环境的"组合拳"，与去年9月一揽子增量政策、中央经济工作会议和全国两会 部署任务形成接续，将进一步放大政策组合效应、叠加效应、乘数效应，有力促进我国经济持续回升向 好。 就业是最大的民生工程、民心工程、根基工程，是社会稳定的重要保障。今年一季度，我国就业形势保 持总体平稳，全国城镇新增就业308万人，同比多增加5万人，快于时序进度。先进制造业、数字经济、 银发经济等领域，正在创造较多就业机会。 然而，一些挑战也不能忽视。2025届高校毕业生规模预计达1222万人，6月份即将迎来就业高峰，还有 大量农村转移劳动力需要就业，就业总量存在压力是一个客观事实。外贸承压，对我国出口企业及相关 就业岗位带来冲击；传统产业数字化转型和智能化升级，导致部分低技能岗位减少；新兴产业虽然人才 需求强劲，但培养规模有限，难以满足需求。这种结构性矛盾表现为部分毕业生难以找到心仪工作，而 许多企业又面临"招工难"困境。 我国是人口大国，正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期，稳就业稳经济的压力 始终存在。 ...

Group 1: Private Economy Promotion Law - The Private Economy Promotion Law, effective from May 20, is China's first foundational law specifically addressing the development of the private economy, consisting of 9 chapters and 78 articles [2] - The law emphasizes the equal legal status of the private economy and aims to promote its healthy development, ensuring fair competition and improved investment and financing environments [2][3] - It addresses key concerns of private enterprises by establishing systems for fair competition, innovation support, and legal protections [2][3] Group 2: Market Access Barrier Cleanup - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation, initiated a campaign to clear market access barriers, aiming to create a unified national market [4] - The focus is on rectifying unreasonable regulations and practices that violate market access requirements, including local regulations that hinder competition [4][5] - This six-month action is part of implementing a new negative list for market access, promoting a stable and transparent environment for private enterprises [4][5] Group 3: Employment and Economic Stability Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission announced five measures to stabilize employment and the economy, including support for employment, foreign trade stability, and effective investment expansion [6][7] - These measures are designed to enhance policy implementation efficiency and ensure that benefits reach businesses and the public [6][7] - The focus is on actionable policies that can support economic recovery and maintain social stability amid external challenges [6][7] Group 4: Manufacturing PMI Decline - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0% in April, indicating a contraction after two months of expansion, with significant declines in new orders and export orders [8] - The decline is attributed to seasonal factors and a slowdown in external demand due to changing trade environments [8] - Analysts suggest that proactive macroeconomic policies are needed to bolster investment and consumer spending to stabilize the economy [8] Group 5: U.S. Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, primarily due to increased imports and reduced government spending [9] - This contraction has raised concerns about the impact of tariff policies on business and consumer confidence, leading to downward revisions of economic forecasts [9] - The economic downturn poses challenges for the current U.S. administration, affecting its credibility and public support [9] Group 6: U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement - The U.S. and Ukraine signed an agreement to establish a joint investment fund, with both countries holding equal shares and management rights [10][11] - The agreement allows Ukraine to retain ownership and control over its mineral resources, addressing a key concern for Ukraine [11] - While the agreement does not explicitly mention U.S. security guarantees, it signals continued military support for Ukraine amid ongoing conflict [11] Group 7: U.S. Auto Tariff Policy Adjustments - The U.S. government announced adjustments to auto tariffs, including exemptions for imported auto parts and a small rebate for domestic manufacturers [12] - These changes come in response to widespread opposition to previous tariff policies, which could negatively impact consumer interests [12] - Despite these adjustments, uncertainties surrounding tariff policies continue to pose challenges for the automotive industry and consumer sentiment [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, gold purchases are becoming a preferred investment choice for residents in Beijing amid negative consumption growth [2][4] - Beijing's retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with gold and jewelry consumption showing a significant increase of 29% [2][4] - In March 2025, gold and jewelry consumption reached 78.7 billion yuan, ranking just below automotive and communication equipment categories [2] Group 2: Gold Price Trends - The price of gold has been on the rise, with a 28.2% increase in the closing price of Au9999 gold in 2024 and a further 27.8% increase in 2025 [2][6] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been highlighted due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic instability, leading to increased investment in gold bars and coins [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a notable divergence in gold consumption trends, with gold jewelry consumption declining by 26.85% in Q1 2025, while gold bars and coins saw a growth of 29.81% [6] - The overall consumer spending in Beijing has been affected by various factors, including insufficient effective demand and intense market competition [4][10] Group 4: Economic Context - The overall economic environment in Beijing has shown signs of slowing recovery, with the first quarter of 2025 reflecting a decline in various consumer sectors, particularly in the restaurant and hospitality industries [8][10] - Employment in the service sector has also been impacted, with a decrease in the number of employees in key industries such as catering and information technology [9][10]

广州日报评论员张冬梅 说到稳经济，总不免与可预期、确定性、韧性、安全这些词相关联。揆诸当下，稳经济说到底就是要坚 定不移办好自己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。确定性、稳定性来自 哪？精准度高、含金量足、获得感强的政策措施，无疑是重要方面。 打好"组合拳"，打开新天地。相信随着若干举措有力实施、既定政策落地见效，持续巩固"稳"的基 础、"进"的动能、"好"的态势，必将推动中国经济巨轮乘风破浪、稳健前行！ 稳在"精准"。政策要"解渴"、出成效，就要方向准、路子对。就业、外贸、消费，这些领域不仅承压较 大，同时各方主体"体感"强烈、影响面广。若干举措直面重点领域、突出问题，有的放矢、精准施策。 镜头再聚焦，一业一策、一企一策，对企业加大扩岗支持，降低外贸企业内销成本，保障中小企业合理 融资需求……企业"细胞"活力旺盛，经济才能"身强体健"。稳住企业就稳住了市场、稳住了经济，必将 催生高质量发展的化学反应。 （文章来源：广州日报） 稳在"务实"。政策实不实，不仅看力度，还看节奏。先说前者，无论是加大真金白银支持力度，还是设 立新型政策性金融工具，抑或是制定实施充电设施"倍增"行动，纵观若干 ...

术面，持仓减量，MACD低位金叉，关注MA10支撑。操作上，建议逢回调轻仓多头。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 沪锌产业日报 2025-04-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22550 | 30 06-07月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 225 | -40 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2633.5 | -12 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 214581 | -5554 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 3234 | 775 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 2429 | -427 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 51378 | -7207 LME库存(日,吨) | 179325 | -725 | | | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22970 | 90 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum oxide main contract fluctuates weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, supply may slightly shrink and demand is optimistic. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract fluctuates, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, it is in a stage of both supply and demand increasing and inventory steadily decreasing. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with converging green bars. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a fluctuating manner, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,930 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract is 2,563 yuan/ton, down 2,563 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,434 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 419,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The difference between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for aluminum oxide, it is 4 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the aluminum oxide spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount is 19,920 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the basis for electrolytic aluminum is 90 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis for aluminum oxide is 94 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national aluminum oxide monthly production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons. The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide is 30 million tons, up 9 million tons; the monthly import volume is 1.12 million tons, down 3.05 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum is 221,820.89 tons, up 21,622.20 tons; the monthly export volume is 8,699.85 tons, up 5,273.31 tons. The monthly production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 165.50 million tons, up 10.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles. The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.17 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, down 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.30%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.58%, down 0.0036. The option put - call ratio is 0.59, down 0.0205 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of established policies, including a special consumption - boosting action and using 5 trillion yuan of national - level investment funds this year. A series of measures to stabilize employment and the economy will be introduced one by one [2]. - The central bank will prevent exchange - rate over - adjustment risks, maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and create new structural monetary - policy tools [2]. 3.8 Aluminum Oxide Viewpoint Summary - Due to the low - level operation of the aluminum oxide spot price, some producers' profits are inverted, leading to production cuts or maintenance, and the domestic production is expected to slightly shrink. The electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit conditions and strong production willingness, so the demand for aluminum oxide is optimistic [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum plants have completed the resumption of production, with high - level operation of production capacity and high operating rates. The cost has slightly decreased, so the supply is stable. The downstream aluminum - product processing enterprises may benefit from domestic - demand expansion policies, and the domestic electrolytic - aluminum social inventory is steadily decreasing [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 932.00 | -15.00↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1553.00 | -9.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 414375.00 | -9042.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 43573.00 | -1649.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -52956.00 | -3808. ...