每经AI快讯，周四(11月13日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.91个基点报3.591%，3年期 美债收益率涨3.33个基点报3.591%，5年期美债收益率涨4.00个基点报3.708%，10年期美债收益率涨5.18 个基点报4.121%，30年期美债收益率涨4.77个基点报4.712%。 ...

新华财经北京11月13日电（吴郑思）11月12日，贵金属价格再度大幅飙升。其中银价单日大涨超4%， 盘中高点逼近历史新高。 在市场分析人士看来，随着美联储宽松的货币政策预计将继续下去，贵金属的实物买盘需求保持稳定， 黄金和白银的基本面仍然强劲。"除非发生任何重大变化，否则这两种金属未来几周内都可能走 高。"Solomon Global市场分析师表示。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价当日上涨68.2美元，收于每盎司4201.4 美元，涨幅为1.65%。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨215.5美分，收于每盎司53.230美元，涨幅为4.22%。盘中银价一度触 及53.625美元，距离此前创下的53.765美元高点仅一步之遥。 在此背景下，指标10年期美债收益率跌至11月5日以来最低水平，则进一步强化了12日当天贵金属的涨 势。 另外，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克12日突然宣布，将于2026年2月28日任期届满时退休，届时他距 美联储强制退休年龄尚有五年有余。由于博斯蒂克在货币政策上的立场倾向"鹰派"，此举也增强了市场 对美联储加速鸽派转向的猜测。 正是在上述基本面逻辑支持下，即 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（11月12日），美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨1.67个基点报3.568%，3年 期美债收益率涨2.39个基点报3.558%，5年期美债收益率涨1.04个基点报3.672%，10年期美债收益率持 平报4.067%，30年期美债收益率跌0.29个基点报4.665%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（11月11日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌3.95个基点报3.551%，3年 期美债收益率跌6.44个基点报3.534%，5年期美债收益率跌5.74个基点报3.656%，10年期美债收益率跌 5.25个基点报4.062%，30年期美债收益率跌3.60个基点报4.668%。 ...

每经AI快讯，周一（11月10日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.92个基点报3.591%，3年 期美债收益率涨2.57个基点报3.593%，5年期美债收益率涨3.48个基点报3.715%，10年期美债收益率涨 2.33个基点报4.116%，30年期美债收益率涨0.78个基点报4.705%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week (from November 3rd to November 7th, 2025), the bond market experienced volatile adjustments. The yields of 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds all increased. The central bank's bond purchase in October was less than expected, and the strong and volatile stock market led to a slight decline in bond market sentiment. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and its short - term volatility direction may be affected by the stock market trend. The yields of US treasury bonds fluctuated downward, and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index declined. The scale of bond ETFs exceeded 70 billion yuan [3][10][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Pan - fixed - income Market Review and Observation - **Bond Market in China**: Last week, the bond market in China adjusted with fluctuations. The yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds rose by 2.19BP, 1.88BP, and 1.50BP respectively. The central bank's 20 billion yuan bond purchase in October was less than expected, and the strong stock market led to a slight decline in bond market sentiment. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and its short - term direction may be affected by the stock market [3][10]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: Last week, the yields of US treasury bonds fluctuated downward. The 1 - year yield dropped 7BP to 3.63%, the 2 - year yield dropped 5BP to 3.55%, and the 10 - year yield remained flat at 4.11%. There were both negative and positive factors during the week [10]. - **REITs**: Last week, the China Securities REITs Total Return Index dropped 0.40% to 1041.51 points. The park and warehousing logistics sectors led the decline, while the consumption and data center sectors had relatively high gains. In the primary market, 3 new public REITs made progress last week [11]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The scale of bond ETFs exceeded 70 billion yuan. As of October 31, 2025, the scale of bond ETFs reached 70.0044 billion yuan. At the beginning of 2025, it was less than 18 billion yuan. Among the 53 bond ETFs in the market, 50 had a scale of over 1 billion yuan, and 30 had a scale of over 10 billion yuan [12]. 2. Pan - fixed - income Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Currency Enhancement Index Tracking - **Currency Enhancement Strategy Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that surpasses money market funds and rises smoothly. It mainly allocates money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance comparison benchmark is the China Securities Money Fund Index [14]. 2.2. Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth upward curve while controlling drawdowns. It mainly configures 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance comparison benchmark is 50% * Short - term Pure Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money Market Fund Index [17]. - **Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: It invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects funds with both return and drawdown control capabilities, and adjusts the proportion of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [19]. 2.3. Fixed - income + Index Tracking - **Low - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income + targets with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance comparison benchmark is 10% China Securities 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [20][23]. - **Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance comparison benchmark is 20% China Securities 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [25]. - **High - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance comparison benchmark is 30% China Securities 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [27][28]. 2.4. Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index - It selects bond - type funds with an average convertible bond investment proportion of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system from multiple dimensions and selects 5 funds to form the index [29]. 2.5. QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index Tracking - The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control according to credit and duration to form the index [32]. 2.6. REITs Fund Preferred Index Tracking - The underlying assets of REITs are mainly high - quality and stable infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity according to the underlying asset type to form the index [33].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data as a key indicator of the U.S. economy's health, influencing various financial markets including the dollar, gold, and silver [3][4][37] Group 1: Understanding Non-Farm Data - Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data is released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment changes in all sectors except agriculture, making it a crucial economic health indicator [3][4] - The NFP data is vital for assessing economic conditions, predicting Federal Reserve monetary policy, and guiding short-term trading strategies [3][4][37] Group 2: Key Components of Non-Farm Data - The three critical indicators in the NFP report are: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings [4][12] - New jobs added is the most sensitive indicator, with higher-than-expected figures indicating a strong job market and economic activity [5][6] - The unemployment rate serves as a stability signal for the labor market, with a decrease indicating improvement and an increase suggesting economic weakness [10][12] - Average hourly earnings reflect inflation and consumer spending power, with rapid growth indicating rising inflation pressures [12][13] Group 3: Analyzing the Data Combinations - A combination of strong employment, low unemployment, and fast wage growth signals a robust labor market, typically leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices [18][19] - Conversely, weak employment, high unemployment, and slow wage growth suggest economic slowdown, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [20][21] - Mixed signals, such as strong employment with rising unemployment, indicate market volatility and uncertainty [22][23] Group 4: Market Reactions to Non-Farm Data - Strong NFP data typically results in a rising dollar index, while weak data leads to a declining dollar [24] - Gold and silver prices generally move inversely to the dollar, with strong NFP data causing short-term declines in these precious metals [25] - U.S. Treasury yields react similarly, with strong data leading to rising yields and falling bond prices [26] Group 5: Practical Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for NFP data by observing market expectations and setting strict stop-loss levels to manage risks [29][30] - Following the data release, it is recommended to wait for market stabilization before entering trades, confirming the direction of the initial market reaction [31][32] Group 6: Integrating Other Economic Indicators - NFP data should not be analyzed in isolation; it should be considered alongside other indicators like ADP employment data and initial jobless claims for a comprehensive view [35] - Establishing a systematic approach to track related economic indicators can enhance predictive accuracy regarding NFP outcomes [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remained in a box - shock range this week. Despite the lower - than - expected net Treasury bond purchase scale announced this week, the central bank's support for liquidity remains unchanged. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to continue the narrow - range shock pattern this year, and the impact of the redemption fee rate new rules will be mitigated. A rapid rise in interest rates due to the new rules could present a good entry opportunity [1][16]. - Last week, the monetary policy orientations of the US, Europe, and Japan tended towards marginal balance. After the China - US Busan dialogue, the overall overseas certainty decreased marginally, and the technology valuation faced short - term pressure. However, in 2026, with the change of the Fed chairman, the Fed is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy, and the technology market may continue until the second half of 2026 [2][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week View 3.1.1 Analysis of the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Purchase - From November 3 to 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 1.35bp from 1.7925% to 1.8060%. Market sentiment, the central bank's bond - buying scale, the stock - bond relationship, and the expected implementation of the new fund fee rules all affected the yield fluctuations [1][11][12]. - The bond market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. The impact of the new redemption fee rate rules will be mitigated by the transition period, and the central bank's support for liquidity remains strong. A rapid rise in interest rates due to the new rules will create a good entry opportunity [16]. 3.1.2 Analysis of US Bond Yield Trends - Last week, the monetary policy orientations of the US, Europe, and Japan tended towards marginal balance. After the China - US Busan dialogue, overseas uncertainty increased, and risk - aversion sentiment emerged. The technology market may face short - term pressure but is expected to recover in 2026 [2][19]. - In the US, the commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly in the week of October 31, 2025, mainly due to loose supply and insufficient demand. The ISM manufacturing PMI index in October was lower than expected, indicating weak manufacturing vitality. The Fed's internal differences on the December interest - rate cut path intensified, with different stances from radical doves, moderate doves, and hawks [2][20][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from November 3 to 7, 2025, the net investment was - 15,722 billion yuan, mainly due to the large - scale maturity of reverse repurchases [35]. - The money - market interest rates showed a downward trend overall this week [36][37]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macro Data Tracking - The total commercial housing transaction area showed mixed trends. Steel prices declined across the board, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [57][58][61]. - The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, 7 - day annualized yield of Yu'E Bao, and vegetable price index all had their own trends [62][65][70]. - The VIX panic index led the rise, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the fall. US bond yields increased overall compared to half a month ago, and the term spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US bonds, and between 10 - year and 3 - month US bonds decreased [74][79][80]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 32 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 91.607 billion yuan, including 45.211 billion yuan of refinancing bonds and 46.396 billion yuan of new special bonds. The net financing was - 33.641 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, highway, and shantytown renovation projects [89]. - Five provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningbo, Fujian, and Inner Mongolia ranking in the top five in terms of issuance amount [96]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local bonds was 53.78 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 40.6417 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.76%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Shandong, and the top three active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [104]. - The overall yield of local bonds declined this week [109]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The local bond issuance plans of various provinces and cities for this month are presented, including the planned issuance amounts of Chongqing, Shandong, and other places [112]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 316 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 288.652 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 198.141 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 90.511 billion yuan, an increase of 106.811 billion yuan compared to last week [110]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 9.80 billion yuan, and the net financing of industrial bonds was 91.491 billion yuan [111][115]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of various credit bond types decreased this week, with short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds all showing downward trends [122]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 592.039 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [123]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield of China Development Bank bonds increased across the board this week [124]. - The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed mixed trends, while the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally declined [124][125][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed this week [130][132][134]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes generally narrowed this week [137][140].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（11月7日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨0.43个基点报3.560%，3年 期美债收益率涨0.57个基点报3.570%，5年期美债收益率涨0.52个基点报3.682%，30年期美债收益率涨 2.04个基点报4.699%。 ...

机构观点 铜冠金源期货：宏观方面，美国裁员数创20年来新高，美债收益率走低，12月降息路径仍不明朗，美元 指数震荡收跌；油价弱势震荡运行。基本面上，利空因素逐步被交易，等待下周一MPOB报告发布，关 注累库情况带来的指引。11月产地进入减产季，且生柴政策有炒作反复的预期，对价格有一定支撑。预 计短期棕榈油震荡偏弱运行。 宁证期货：棕榈油在11月有减产预期，一定程度支撑期价；国内方面豆棕价差快速修复，棕榈油性价比 逐渐提升，需求在近期提振较为明显。但近月基本面继续施压，短期内棕榈油空头利润兑现离场，底部 调整。 11月7日，棕榈油期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报8688.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.32%。 【消息面汇总】 截至10月31日当周，国内棕榈油库存为59.28万吨，环比减少2.36%，同比增加17.29%。 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年11月1-5日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同 期增加5.12%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.32%，产量环比上月同期增加6.80%。 BMI预测2025/26年度全球棕榈油产量将增长1.8%，达到8,010万吨；其中印尼产量将增长3.3 ...