每经AI快讯，周五(2月20日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.08个基点报3.478%，3年期 美债收益率涨1.66个基点报3.497%，5年期美债收益率涨1.02个基点报3.647%，10年期美债收益率涨1.72 个基点报4.085%，30年期美债收益率涨2.63个基点报4.724%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周四（2月19日），美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.20个基点报3.457%，3年 期美债收益率跌0.56个基点报3.486%，5年期美债收益率跌0.88个基点报3.638%，10年期美债收益率跌 1.54个基点报4.067%，30年期美债收益率跌0.68个基点报4.700%。 ...

周三纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨2.50个基点，刷新日高至4.0865%，全天持续震荡上行。两年 期美债收益率涨2.91个基点，报3.4616%；30年期美债收益率涨2.23个基点，报4.7108%。2/10年期美债 收益率利差大致持平，报+61.883个基点。10年期通胀保值国债收益率涨0.77个基点，至1.7894%；两年 期TIPS收益率跌0.61个基点，至0.7566%；30年期TIPS收益率涨0.96个基点，至2.4824%。 ...

每经AI快讯，周二(2月17日)，美债收益率多数上涨，2年期美债收益率涨3.54个基点报3.437%，3年期 美债收益率涨1.94个基点报3.464%，5年期美债收益率涨1.73个基点报3.621%，10年期美债收益率涨0.95 个基点报4.058%，30年期美债收益率跌0.58个基点报4.689%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the collective decline in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities on February 13, with notable decreases in short-term and long-term bonds [1] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.00 basis points to 3.405% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield fell by 4.98 basis points to 3.445% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 4.71 basis points to 3.604% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield declined by 4.79 basis points to 4.048% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.05 basis points to 4.694% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office predicts that the federal deficit will continue to expand over the next decade, with interest payments increasingly comprising a larger share of total government spending, thereby raising current market interest rates [1] Group 1: Deficit Projections - By fiscal year 2036, the annual federal deficit is expected to reach $3.1 trillion, accounting for 6.7% of GDP, while for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, the deficit is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP [1] - The need for the Treasury to finance through the issuance of government bonds, treasury bills, and notes arises when government spending consistently exceeds tax revenue, leading to increased debt supply that often requires higher yields to attract investors [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Interest Rates - If the market had more confidence in the U.S. government's ability to control spending, reduce the deficit, and curb inflation, the Federal Reserve's target policy rate could be approximately 100 basis points lower than the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% [2] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is relatively controlled, partly due to the Treasury's increased reliance on short-term treasury bills to manage financing costs [2] Group 3: Impact on Affordability and Public Services - The expanding fiscal deficit and rising interest costs may undermine the affordability goals emphasized by the Trump administration, as higher borrowing costs increase personal financing costs for mortgages and auto loans, directly impacting housing and daily consumption affordability [3] - The Treasury's need to continuously increase bond supply could lead to uncontrolled yield increases if investor demand weakens, further raising overall financing costs and affecting the affordability of housing and living expenses [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market shows resilience, as evidenced by non-farm payroll data, unemployment rates, and wage data, which reduces the probability of interest rate cuts in June 2026 to 47.1% from a previous 48.9% [2] - Following the data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 7 basis points to 3.52%, while the 10-year yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.18% [2] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded to 96.91, and U.S. stock markets experienced slight adjustments, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13%, the S&P 500 down 0.01%, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% [2] Industry Performance - Leading sectors included storage/semiconductors, energy, machinery, railroads, industrial metals, chemicals, and department stores [2] - Underperforming sectors encompassed AI software, online brokerages, major central banks, credit cards, home builders, and airlines, with concerns about AI agents reducing demand for traditional SaaS software and seat licenses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury successfully completed a $25 billion issuance of 30-year bonds with a strong market response, indicated by a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66, leading to a rally in long-term U.S. Treasury securities [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The auction yield for the 30-year bonds was set at 4.750% [1] - The strong demand for the bonds contributed to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 2: Yield Movements - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.03 basis points to 4.7269% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 7.05 basis points to 4.1019% [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by 4.57 basis points to 3.4642% [1] Group 3: Foreign Holdings - As of the week ending February 13, foreign central banks increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by $14.12 billion, reversing a previous week's decrease of $4.002 billion [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in U.S. Treasury yields following the release of non-farm payroll data, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 7.05 basis points to 4.1019%, while the two-year yield decreased by 4.57 basis points to 3.4642% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 8.03 basis points to 4.7269%, with significant declines noted after the U.S. Treasury's bond results were disclosed [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread decreased by 2.274 basis points to +63.564 basis points, reflecting a notable contraction in the yield curve [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield fell by 5.51 basis points to 1.7835%, while the two-year TIPS yield increased slightly by 0.32 basis points to 0.7323% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield decreased by 6.08 basis points to 2.4789%, indicating a mixed response in inflation-protected securities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicates that the U.S. fiscal deficit will continue to expand over the next decade, with interest expenditures rising rapidly and taking up an increasing share of total government spending [1] Group 1: Fiscal Deficit Projections - By 2036, the annual fiscal deficit is expected to reach $3.1 trillion, accounting for 6.7% of GDP, while for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, the deficit is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP [1] - The continuous government spending exceeding tax revenues necessitates the issuance of government bonds, treasury bills, and notes to finance the deficit, which may require higher yields to attract investors [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Interest Rates - Brian Mulberry from Zacks Investment Management estimates that if the market had more confidence in the U.S. government's ability to control spending and reduce the deficit, the current target range for the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate (3.5% to 3.75%) could be about 100 basis points lower [2] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is around 4.1%, but Mulberry suggests that it would be more reasonable in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% if not for the fiscal deficit concerns [2] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The expanding fiscal deficit and rising interest costs may undermine the affordability goals emphasized by the Trump administration, as higher borrowing costs compress the fiscal space available for public services and infrastructure [3] - The Treasury's reliance on short-term treasury bills to manage financing costs has kept the 10-year yield relatively controlled, but the CBO warns that net interest expenditures will increasingly contribute to the expanding fiscal gap over time [2][3]