算力卫星作为算力新基建，全球产业化进程逐步推进，国内政策细则出台引领。海外来看，科技巨头争相布局，太空算力逐渐成为共识。国内来看，算力星 座发射加速，产业化进程加快。国家政策来看，国家航天局印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025-2027年）》，细则进一步明 确。建议关注算力卫星相关标的。 在居民存款搬家持续演绎、机构投资者加大入市力度、全球资本流向重塑叠加政策工具护航下，A股市场仍将受益于流动性向上逻辑。当前A股估值处于相 对合理区间，从全球主要权益市场比较来看仍处于中等偏低水平。2026年，盈利有望接棒估值，成为市场聚焦的关键点。预计上市公司基本面延续改善态 势，中国经济转型的深化与新兴产业的持续发展将成为盈利增长的关键驱动力，PPI降幅收窄也有望带动企业利润率水平进一步回升。同时，关注美国中期 选举、地缘风险、国内经济修复节奏等因素的阶段性扰动。2026年，A股市场有望呈现出向上动能。 在经历年内一轮强势上涨后，医药板块的上行势头近期有所放缓，"翻倍基"数量也明显收缩。数据显示，三季度医药主题基金一度出现翻倍数量的阶段性高 点，但截至11月28日仅剩两只产品维持年内翻倍收益。近三个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a range-bound consolidation, reflecting intense market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index showed a slight recovery compared to the end of November, indicating a month-on-month decline that highlights the market's fierce debate over Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - In November, market expectations shifted significantly, with a notable drop in the anticipation of a rate cut in December due to delays in the release of the October non-farm payroll report and divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers [1] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" revealed a decline in consumer spending and a weak job market, leading to a resurgence in the probability of a rate cut in December, which subsequently pressured the dollar index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a narrow range, with the upper boundary corresponding to the retracement neckline formed by the high on November 19, and the lower boundary representing recent low points, indicating a typical "box consolidation" pattern [2] - Short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross but are flattening, while medium to long-term moving averages are diverging downward, suggesting weak short-term support but an unresolved medium-term downtrend [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near neutral, indicating insufficient market momentum, while the MACD shows a narrowing green histogram followed by a slight increase in the red histogram, suggesting potential direction selection after short-term fluctuations [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve may have more room to cut rates in 2026 compared to other non-US central banks, potentially leading to a further downward shift in the dollar's volatility center [3] - Despite significant declines in 2025, the US economy still holds advantages over Europe and Japan, suggesting that any further declines in the dollar may be limited next year [3] - Various risk factors, including the US midterm elections and the execution of tariff agreements, are expected to intermittently disrupt market sentiment and increase exchange rate volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its gold price target for mid-2026 from $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of over 12% from current levels [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing asset classes in 2025, with an increase of nearly 60% year-to-date, stabilizing above $4,000 per ounce [3]. - In October, gold prices reached a historical high of nearly $4,400 per ounce before retreating below $4,000 [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - Key factors supporting the rise in gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and declining real yields, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and changes in the U.S. domestic policy environment, particularly related to upcoming midterm elections and increasing fiscal risks, are also significant supports for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Changes in Demand Structure - The demand structure for gold is evolving, with increased participation from institutional investors and notable purchases by central banks [7]. - UBS estimates that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 900 tons in 2026, significantly higher than the annual average of 450 to 500 tons from 2010 to 2021 [7]. Group 4: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Multiple Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are optimistic about gold prices, with Goldman predicting a price of $4,900 by the end of 2026 and JPMorgan projecting a range of $4,975 to $5,062 per ounce [12][13]. Group 5: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - UBS recommends that ordinary investors allocate around 5% of their total assets to gold to enhance portfolio diversification and provide a buffer against systemic risks [16]. - The firm suggests a strategy of buying on dips, indicating that investor allocation to gold remains insufficient [16]. Group 6: Future Price Predictions - UBS anticipates that gold prices may consolidate around $4,300 after the U.S. midterm elections in 2026, with potential to reach $4,900 if political and financial risks escalate [18]. - The trend of central banks and investors purchasing gold is likely to continue, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global economic and political uncertainties [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "redistricting battle" in the United States, particularly focusing on Texas, where a federal court ruled against the Republican-led redistricting plan, requiring the state to use the 2021 district map for the upcoming midterm elections [1][2]. Group 1: Legal and Political Context - A federal court ruled 2-1 against Texas's new redistricting plan, stating it had political motives and violated anti-discrimination laws [2]. - The ruling is a setback for the Republican Party, which aimed to gain more congressional seats from Democrats in the upcoming elections [1][2]. - The redistricting process typically follows the decennial census, with the next census scheduled for 2030 [1]. Group 2: Reactions and Implications - Texas Governor Greg Abbott called the ruling "absurd" and announced plans to appeal to the Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority [2]. - Texas Democrats celebrated the court's decision, viewing it as a victory against what they termed a blatant attempt to undermine democracy [2]. - The redistricting conflict is not limited to Texas; similar battles are occurring or expected in over ten other states, including Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana [2].

Core Points - Trump's urgent return to the U.S. after the China-U.S. meeting is linked to addressing domestic economic issues and preparing for the upcoming midterm elections [1][2] - The urgency reflects the need to resolve economic dissatisfaction among the public, which could impact his presidency and the Republican Party's performance in the 2024 elections [1][6] - Trump's strategy may involve a significant shift in approach towards China, emphasizing the importance of stable relations [4][6] Economic Context - The article highlights that Trump's administration has faced criticism for its economic policies, particularly following a trade war that has negatively impacted the U.S. economy [1][6] - The upcoming midterm elections are crucial for Trump, especially after a previous defeat in 2018, making economic recovery a priority [1][2] Political Strategy - Trump's recent comments about the China-U.S. relationship suggest a desire to maintain peace and stability, which may be a strategic move to bolster his domestic standing [4][6] - The Democratic Party has recognized Trump's potential shift in strategy, leading to increased criticism from figures like Obama, who challenge Trump's leadership and economic management [6][7] Domestic Security Measures - Reports indicate that Trump has ordered the formation of a rapid response force to address potential domestic unrest, indicating a proactive approach to managing political tensions [7][9] - This move may reflect Trump's intent to involve the military in domestic affairs, reminiscent of past actions during civil unrest [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent statements regarding Nigeria indicate a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy, suggesting possible military intervention if the Nigerian government fails to address attacks on Christians [1][3]. Group 1: Political Context - Trump's remarks are closely tied to the influence of American evangelical groups, who have been advocating for the plight of Nigerian Christians, reflecting a strategy to solidify support from this voter base [3][5]. - The timing of Trump's statements coincides with upcoming midterm elections, where the Republican Party seeks to demonstrate effective governance by diverting attention from domestic issues through external crises [5]. Group 2: Military Considerations - The Pentagon has reportedly begun preparations for potential military action, indicating a serious consideration of intervention, although such actions would require significant military capability and resources [1][5]. - The U.S. military's experience from previous conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to a cautious approach regarding simultaneous engagements in multiple regions, raising questions about the feasibility of addressing both Venezuela and Nigeria concurrently [5]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes - The most likely scenario involves the U.S. maintaining a strong stance to compel Nigeria to enhance its counter-terrorism efforts, allowing Trump to claim a diplomatic victory without resorting to actual military action [5].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex scenario characterized by strong consumer spending, rising AI investments, and a softening labor market [1][4] - The growth is primarily driven by productivity improvements from AI investments, suggesting a potential increase in the U.S. economy's long-term growth rate [1][4] AI Investment Impact - AI investments are stimulating demand and boosting confidence, with significant direct and indirect effects on productivity [1][14] - Current productivity growth is notable, but it remains uncertain how much of it is structural versus cyclical [4][14] Tariff Policy Effects - Tariff costs are mainly borne by importers, with limited immediate impact on consumer prices, thus having a gradual effect on inflation [1][10] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led some businesses to delay investments, which could affect overall investment levels [10][11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Current inflation is around 3%, above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which may limit the scope for further interest rate cuts [2][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "data-driven" approach in its monetary policy decisions amid the current economic complexities [2][8] Labor Market and Employment - Despite strong productivity growth, there are concerns that AI may lead to structural unemployment, particularly affecting skilled jobs [2][14] - The labor market is showing mixed signals, with productivity growth not translating into significant job creation [4][5] Debt and Political Environment - The U.S. debt issue is technically manageable, but political will to address it is lacking, which could raise investor concerns in the long term [2][19] - The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections could influence policy continuity, with potential implications for U.S.-China-EU economic relations [2][22] Global Economic Relations - There is a call for enhanced dialogue among countries to address structural adjustments in global trade and growth models [2][22] - The U.S. dollar's status is not expected to weaken significantly, but irresponsible fiscal policies could lead to investor concerns [2][18]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 35th day, matching the record set during Trump's presidency, with no signs of compromise between the Democratic and Republican parties [1] - Elections are taking place in multiple states, intensifying the competition between the two parties over voter influence [6][8] Group 1: Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown has led to widespread frustration among lawmakers, with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson expressing anger towards the Democratic party for their actions [3] - Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries criticized the rising cost of living and blamed Trump's tariff policies for worsening the situation, emphasizing the need to address the healthcare crisis caused by the Republican party [5] Group 2: Elections and Political Dynamics - Elections are being held in New Jersey, Virginia, New York City, and California, with significant positions at stake, including governorships and congressional redistricting [6][8] - In New Jersey, despite being a traditionally Democratic state, the candidates are closely matched in support; in Virginia, the Democratic candidate is favored for governor, but the Attorney General position may go to the Republicans [8] - The California special vote on redistricting could potentially allow Democrats to gain five additional House seats in the upcoming midterm elections, following similar favorable outcomes for Republicans in Texas and Missouri [12] - The political rivalry and division in the U.S. are exhausting for ordinary citizens, who are seeking more focus on issues that directly affect their lives [14][16]

Core Points - The recent state and local elections in the U.S., including the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and the New York City mayoral election, are seen as indicators for the 2026 midterm elections [1][4] - Former President Trump has publicly endorsed independent candidate Andrew Cuomo for the New York City mayoral race, emphasizing the necessity of voting for him over his opponents [1][3] - The election outcome is crucial not only for the mayoral position but also for the future direction of the Democratic Party and its performance in the upcoming midterm elections [4] Group 1 - Trump's support for Cuomo, a former Democratic governor, marks a significant cross-party endorsement, as he typically aligns with Republican candidates [1][3] - Cuomo, who resigned in 2021 due to a sexual harassment scandal, is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to the current frontrunner, 34-year-old Democratic Socialist candidate, Mamdani [3] - Mamdani, who has a strong lead in polls, represents a shift towards a more progressive Democratic agenda, which could influence the party's strategy moving forward [3][4] Group 2 - The election results are anticipated to reflect the political climate and voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms, making these local elections particularly significant [4] - Trump's comments about withholding federal funds from New York City if Mamdani wins highlight the potential political ramifications of the election outcome [3]

Group 1: Election Context - The 2026 midterm elections in the U.S. are approaching, raising concerns about the Trump administration's potential policy adjustments to support Republican candidates[5] - Current mainstream election forecasts suggest that Republicans have a relative advantage in the House of Representatives, but uncertainty remains regarding their ability to retain a majority[5] - For the Senate, predictions indicate a high probability that Republicans will maintain their majority[5] Group 2: Louisiana Redistricting Case - The Louisiana v. Callais case involves a dispute over the state's redistricting plan, which was deemed to violate the Voting Rights Act by not providing adequate representation for Black voters[5] - If the 2024 redistricting plan is ruled unconstitutional, the Republican-controlled state government could revert to the 2020 plan, potentially converting Democratic seats into Republican advantages[5] - The case raises two main issues: the constitutionality of the 2024 redistricting plan and the constitutionality of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which could impact Republican strategies in Southern states[5] Group 3: Implications for Republican Strategy - If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is weakened, Republicans could create more districts favorable to their party, potentially reversing up to 17 Democratic seats outside Louisiana[5] - The Supreme Court's ruling on these issues could asymmetrically affect the midterm elections, benefiting Republicans if the Voting Rights Act is weakened[5] - Overall, the Republican Party may have opportunities to reduce midterm election risks, leading to less constraint on Trump's subsequent policies[5]