Core Insights - The May non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Department of Labor indicates a resilient labor market, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the market expectation of 126,000 [2] - However, significant downward revisions to previous months' data, with a total adjustment of 95,000 jobs, suggest that the actual momentum in the labor market may not be as strong as it appears [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, reflecting labor market stability [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, indicating an improvement in consumers' purchasing power [2] Industry Performance - The healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors were the main contributors to job growth, adding 126,000 new positions [2] - Conversely, manufacturing, retail, and federal government employment experienced declines, with federal government jobs decreasing by 22,000 [2] - The downturn in manufacturing and retail may be linked to uncertainties surrounding trade policies [2] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.2%, reaching a new high for the year [3] - The dollar index initially rose but recorded a decline over the week due to previous weak ADP data [3] - Interest rate expectations shifted, with the market now anticipating a 25 basis point cut in both November and December, rather than a larger cut [3] Economic Outlook - The non-farm data presents mixed signals, with strong job additions and wage growth supporting consumer spending, while the downward revisions and manufacturing decline raise concerns about investment and expansion [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, likely holding rates steady in September while awaiting further data [4] - Future focus will be on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, particularly the upcoming CPI report on June 11 and the interest rate decision on June 19 [5][6]

Market Overview - On June 5, spot gold experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $3400 per ounce before declining sharply, ultimately closing down 0.58% at $3352.83 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver showed strong performance, surpassing the $36 per ounce mark for the first time since February 2012, closing up 3.33% at $35.65 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" report indicated a slight decline in U.S. economic activity since the last report, with rising policy uncertainty and increased price pressures affecting businesses and consumers, leading to a pessimistic overall economic outlook [3] - In May, the ADP employment report showed an increase of 37,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 110,000 and the previous month's increase of 62,000 [3] - The ISM services PMI for May reported at 49.9, falling short of the expected 52, marking the first contraction in nearly a year. The new orders index dropped significantly by 5.9 points to 46.4, the largest decline since June 2024. The prices paid index surged to 68.7, the highest since November 2022 [3] Trading Strategy - For international gold, support levels are noted at $3350 or $3333, while resistance levels are at $3386 or $3415 [4] - For spot silver, support is identified at $35.45 or $35.00, with resistance levels at $36.55 or $37.50 [4]

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity since the last report, with rising policy uncertainty and price pressures affecting both businesses and consumers [1] - Economic growth is slowing, with mixed regional performance; six Federal Reserve districts report a slight decline in economic activity, three remain stable, and three show weak growth [1] - Price levels continue to rise moderately, with businesses generally expecting future costs to accelerate, with some predicting "significant or substantial increases" [1] Economic Activity - Overall economic outlook remains pessimistic, with businesses cautious about future economic trends due to policy uncertainty and cost pressures [1] - The Beige Book highlights that the overall expectations have not improved compared to the previous report [1] Price Pressures - Tariff policies are identified as a key factor driving up costs, leading some businesses to plan price increases in the next three months to pass on cost pressures [1] - Strategies for passing on costs include adjusting profit margins, adding surcharges, or implementing broad price increases [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the financial situation of American consumers remains stable, their outlook on the future economy is cautious, reflecting a mix of stability and concern [1][3][7] - Approximately 73% of American adults reported their financial situation as "fair" or "comfortable," a figure that remains consistent with 2023 but slightly lower than the 78% recorded in 2021, indicating a stable yet not historically high perception of financial health [1][3] - The percentage of adults able to cover an unexpected expense of $400 remains stable at 63%, similar to previous years, highlighting ongoing economic vulnerability despite a relatively high percentage [1][3] Group 2 - Only 29% of respondents believe the economic situation in 2024 will be "good" or "excellent," a slight increase from 2023 but significantly lower than the 50% recorded in 2019, suggesting persistent long-term economic concerns among consumers [3][7] - The proportion of adults who feel their financial situation has worsened compared to the previous year is 29%, down from a peak of 35% in 2022, yet still above pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing economic pressure [3][7] - Inflation remains a significant challenge for consumers, particularly with rising prices for food and everyday goods, although the percentage of those affected has decreased compared to 2023, suggesting improved adaptability among consumers [7] Group 3 - Housing affordability continues to be a pressing issue, with median rent increasing by approximately 10% annually since 2022, leading to greater financial strain on many households [7] - The survey reflects complex consumer emotions in the face of an uncertain economic environment, with stable financial conditions juxtaposed against low confidence in future economic prospects [7] - High prices and housing pressures are identified as the most prominent challenges in the current economy, emphasizing the need for policymakers to address these issues while maintaining economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in gold prices due to a ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that deemed Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy as overreach, leading to reduced market concerns about international trade tensions [2][3] - Gold prices fell to a low of $3256.32 per ounce, marking a drop of over $30 and the lowest level since May 20, as optimism regarding trade agreements improved the outlook for the U.S. economy, thereby diminishing the safe-haven demand for gold [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index rose, surpassing the 100 mark and reaching a high of 100.19, reflecting a 0.3% increase, as market sentiment turned positive regarding trade agreements [3] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. GDP and PCE price index, are expected to influence market sentiment, with short-term bearish signals for gold prices emerging [4] - Goldman Sachs recommended increasing the allocation of gold in long-term investment portfolios due to rising risks associated with U.S. institutional credibility and ongoing central bank demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists have shifted their perspective on the U.S. economic outlook, indicating that the rationale for interest rate cuts has transitioned from "providing insurance" to "normalization" due to relatively robust economic growth and a slight easing in unemployment rate increases [1][5]. Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate - The U.S. economy is showing relatively strong growth, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%. Additionally, the likelihood of an economic recession within the next 12 months has been reduced to 35% [3]. Adjustment of Rate Cut Expectations - Based on the latest economic outlook, Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates later than previously anticipated, specifically in December instead of July, and to implement rate cuts at alternating meetings rather than consecutively [4][8]. Shift in Rationale for Rate Cuts - The reasoning behind potential rate cuts has evolved from a focus on providing insurance against economic uncertainty and recession risks to a more measured approach aimed at normalizing interest rates to more typical levels [5][7]. Market Reaction and Future Outlook - The adjustment in Goldman Sachs' perspective has garnered significant attention in the market, with investors likely to be influenced by the revised expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Continuous monitoring of the Fed's official statements and economic data will be essential for understanding market trends [6][8].

据央视新闻报道，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税； 美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 中美双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。双方认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性，认识到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要 性，本着相互开放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精神，继续推进相关工作。 联邦基金利率期货显示，今年美联储降息预期缩水至两次。 在中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，全球市场迎来狂欢。然而，在美元上涨和金价重挫的背后，避险情绪降温意味着美联储又有了一个等待降息的理 由。 随着美国与中国、英国达成协议，未来进一步谈判落地将有效降低美国经济硬着陆的可能性。不过，这应该不会阻碍美国总统特朗普继续向美联储主席鲍 威尔施压的步伐。 美国经济前景改善 资产管理公司BK asset management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，美国的一系列经贸谈判将降低美国进口商品 的关税水平，并可能扩大美国出口商品的市场准入，经济可能不会像目前 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，SignatureFD分析师Tony Welch表示，美联储会议后美债收益率下跌，可能表明投资 者担心紧缩的货币政策将对经济产生影响。目前经济正在放缓，在更长时间内实施较紧的货币政策肯定 会是一个不利因素。特朗普的关税正在影响美联储的想法，因为FOMC的声明"一开始"就提到了贸易。 鲍威尔将在新闻发布会上多次使用"不确定性"这个词。 分析师：货币政策从紧将拖累美国经济前景 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic negative factors have led to a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, with market focus shifting to the pressures of global trade friction on the economy, particularly after the record trade deficit data was released [1] Trade Deficit - The trade deficit in March expanded to a record $140.5 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period last year, significantly exceeding economists' expectations [4] - The increase in trade deficit is primarily attributed to businesses importing large quantities of goods to avoid potential tariff costs ahead of new tariffs being implemented [4] - Market analysts believe that as the surge in imports nears its end, this trend is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by declining survey data and port container shipping volumes [4] Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The decline in two-year Treasury yields indicates that investors are increasingly anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders expecting three rate cuts this year, the first possibly in September [6] - However, the decision for further easing by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, with the stronger-than-expected April non-farm payroll report slightly cooling market bets on rate cuts [6] - Investors remain cautious due to increased market uncertainty, as the Fed may not implement comprehensive monetary easing despite concerning economic data [6] Supply Chain Issues - Analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute suggest that U.S. economic performance this year may be hampered by supply-side issues, with tariff policies potentially leading to supply bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - This situation will force the Federal Reserve to make difficult choices between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation [7] - Overall, global trade friction, the potential impacts of tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be key factors influencing the U.S. economic trajectory in the coming months [7]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's stock has significantly outperformed the market this year, showcasing Warren Buffett's enduring legacy and confidence in the U.S. economy despite current challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Buffett has historically maintained a positive outlook on the U.S. economy, even during crises, but recent IMF reports indicate a slowdown in U.S. economic growth to 1.8%, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from earlier predictions [5]. - Concerns about a potential recession are rising, with Q1 GDP showing a contraction of 0.3%, marking the first decline since early 2022, raising fears of stagflation or recession [6]. Group 2: Cash Reserves and Buybacks - As of Q1 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of $347.7 billion, up from $334.2 billion in Q4 2024, drawing attention from investors regarding future cash deployment [8]. - The company has reduced its stock buyback activity, with only $2.9 billion in buybacks in 2024, the lowest since 2018, raising questions about the lack of suitable acquisition targets [9]. Group 3: Investment Plans - Despite reducing U.S. stock holdings since 2022, Buffett emphasizes a preference for investing in stocks over cash, indicating a long-term commitment to equity investments [11]. - Berkshire has significantly invested in five major Japanese companies, spending $13.8 billion over six years, now valued at $23.5 billion, indicating a strategic international investment approach [12]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence Perspective - Buffett acknowledges the dual potential of AI for both significant benefits and risks, expressing uncertainty about its future impact, particularly in labor-intensive industries [15]. Group 5: Succession and Future Leadership - As Buffett approaches 95, discussions about succession are increasingly relevant, with Greg Abel positioned as a potential successor, ensuring continuity in Berkshire's investment philosophy [17]. - Buffett reassures shareholders that Abel shares the company's core values and is prepared to act on significant investment opportunities as they arise [18].