Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the U.S. September CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Rent and used car prices have significantly dragged down the CPI, reflecting weakened demand in these sectors [1] - CICC speculates that this may be related to Trump's immigration policies, which have restricted and expelled immigrants [1] - Prices of goods affected by tariffs have shown mixed trends, with the rate and extent of price increases being lower than CICC's previous expectations [1] - This indicates weak terminal demand, making it difficult for companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers [1] - Service inflation remains robust [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Overall, the inflation data appears moderate, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential decision to continue lowering interest rates [1] - Given the downward risks in the labor market, CICC anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. September CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.3%, with a year-on-year rise to 3.0%, while core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [1] - Rent and used car prices were significant drags on inflation, indicating weakened demand in these sectors, potentially linked to immigration policies [1] - Price changes for goods affected by tariffs were mixed, with the rate and magnitude of price increases lower than previously anticipated, reflecting weak end-demand and challenges for companies in passing on tariff costs to consumers [1] - Service inflation remains robust, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures in the service sector [1] - Overall, the inflation data appears moderate, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential decision to continue lowering interest rates [1] - Given the downward risks in the labor market, the expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data, marking a historical first for such an occurrence [3][4][6] - The White House indicated that the inability to collect price data due to the shutdown could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding monetary policy in December [5][6] - Analysts warn that the absence of key economic data could lead to increased uncertainty for both the market and policymakers, potentially impacting market confidence and financial stability [6][8] Group 2 - The September inflation data was lower than expected, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, which is the highest level since June 2024 [7][8] - The lower-than-expected CPI data has led traders to increase bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut next week and a total of 120 basis points over the next 12 months [7][8] - The housing component significantly influenced the unexpected decline in September inflation, while tariffs have had a relatively mild impact on overall price levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data for the first time in history, creating significant uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy decisions [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The White House warns that due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be unable to collect essential price data, leading to a potential absence of the October inflation report [2][3] - The BLS has paused all active data collection activities during the shutdown, which will delay the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report originally scheduled for November 13 [2][3] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Analysts indicate that the lack of key economic data will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates in December, increasing uncertainty about future inflation trends [3][4] - The absence of inflation data may force the Federal Reserve to make rate decisions without critical information, leading to a "blind flying" scenario [3][4] Group 3: Recent Inflation Data - The September inflation data released prior to the shutdown showed a lower-than-expected increase, with the CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, which is the highest level since June 2024 [5][6] - The core CPI for September also rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, both below market expectations [6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the release of the September CPI data, traders increased bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut next week and a total of 120 basis points over the next 12 months [6][7] - The positive sentiment from the inflation data contributed to a surge in U.S. stock markets, with major indices reaching all-time highs [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of recent economic data, particularly the CPI, on gold prices and market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][2][3] - The recent CPI data showed a weaker-than-expected inflation rate, with the overall CPI rising only 0.3% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both below market expectations [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, reflects market sentiment that the Fed may lower interest rates in the near term, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2][3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a rebound after the CPI data release, with prices recovering from a low of approximately $4044 to around $4123.7, although there is a possibility of ending a nine-week upward trend [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a corrective phase, with key support at $4000 and resistance at $4160. A break below $4000 could signal a larger adjustment, while a breakout above $4160 could lead to further gains [3][5] - The market anticipates a nearly 99% probability of a rate cut by the Fed during the upcoming meeting on October 29-30, with expectations for further easing in December [2][3]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The overall CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate was 3%, also below the expected 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [1] - The market perceives that the Federal Reserve has likely concluded its rate hike cycle, with nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, marking a recent low, and the yield curve indicating increased expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in October is a focal point for the market, with a high probability of confirming a dovish stance, which may put further pressure on the dollar and lead to increased inflows into gold and commodities [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and economic data visibility continues to affect market volatility and investor sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Market Insights - The rise in rate cut expectations supports gold prices, suggesting potential low-positioning opportunities while monitoring short-term volatility from Fed officials' comments [2] - The dollar faces short-term downward pressure, with trading opportunities in the euro against the dollar and dollar against yen, recommending cautious trading strategies [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields provides some support for the stock market, but overall risk appetite remains constrained by policy uncertainties [2][3] Group 4: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to rising inventories and demand concerns, with OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical situations being key variables to watch [3]

Group 1 - The core insight from the article is that unusual housing data may have temporarily depressed the U.S. inflation figures for September [1] - The actual equivalent rent index, which represents the cost of home ownership, increased by only 0.1% month-on-month in September, marking the smallest monthly increase in over four years [1]

Core Insights - The low inflation data in the US for September may lead to a less significant reaction from the money markets than previously anticipated [1] Group 1 - Mizuho macro observer Jordan Rochester highlighted the implications of the US September inflation data [1]

来源：@央视财经 美国劳工部24日公布的数据显示，美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3%；剔除波动较大的食品 和能源价格后，9月核心CPI同比上涨3%。 因美国联邦政府"停摆"，美国9月CPI数据已推迟多日。尽管美国9月通胀数据持续高于美联储2%的通胀 目标，但投资者更关注美国就业市场的疲软状态，在目前贸易局势紧张与政府"停摆"背景下，市场普遍 认为美联储渐进式降息几乎已成定局，预计美联储将在下周（10月29日）以及12月的利率政策会议上分 别再次降息25个基点，联邦基金利率目标区间将被下调至4.00%以下。 作者: 渠莎莎 ...

Core Insights - The dollar has strengthened against a basket of currencies in anticipation of U.S. inflation data for September, which is expected to show an acceleration [1] Group 1 - The rise of the dollar indicates market expectations regarding inflation trends [1]