Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Group 1 - A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report has increased traders' bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89.4% according to the FedWatch tool [1] - The announcement by President Trump that there will be no tariffs on imported gold bars led to a significant drop in international gold prices, with a decline of over 2%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months [1] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation reports and the uncertain global trade situation, which are critical for future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell nearly 2.5%, closing below $3,400 per ounce, the largest drop since May [2] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection clarified the correct customs code for gold bars, which could lead to tariffs being applied, causing a spike in gold prices to a record $3,534.10 per ounce before the White House intervened [2] - Several gold suppliers, including those from Switzerland, have reportedly stopped shipments to the U.S. due to tariff uncertainties [2] Group 3 - The market is awaiting the latest U.S. price data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August set to be released soon [4] - The potential appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance [4] - Analysts suggest that if inflation data exceeds expectations, it could provide the Fed with a reason to pause the anticipated rate cut, negatively impacting gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US July CPI data, which shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, leading to increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The core CPI for July increased by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, marking the highest level since January [1] - Following the CPI data release, US stock index futures experienced a significant rise, with the Dow Jones index futures up 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.70%, and S&P 500 index futures up 0.59% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the market's reaction indicated that some traders had anticipated a worse inflation report, yet stock index futures still rose despite the acceleration in inflation [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell sharply by over 30 points, with non-US currencies appreciating, including the British pound surpassing 1.35 against the dollar [3] - In the commodities market, spot gold prices surged, approaching $3360 per ounce [5]

（文章来源：新华财经） 荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole表示，美国通胀数据可能超过预期，但美元的任何涨幅可能都是短 暂的。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月12日｜荷兰国际集团的分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，今日晚些时候公布的美国 通胀数据可能超过预期，但美元的任何涨幅可能都是短暂的。他表示，劳动力市场数据比通胀数据更有 影响力，因为人们认为关税引发的价格冲击是暂时的，而且最新的非农就业报告已大幅向下修正。他 说，如果通胀高于预期，但伴随着劳动力市场进一步恶化，仍然可能符合美联储在九月降息的预期。这 意味着高于预期的通胀不太可能导致美元持续上涨。荷兰国际预计，7月份核心通胀率将环比上升 0.4%，高于经济学家普遍预计的0.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices and the market's reaction to potential U.S. tariffs on gold bars, alongside the focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, gold prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [1]. - The decline followed rumors of a new tariff on imported gold bars, which had previously driven COMEX gold to a new high on August 8 [2]. - Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to classify gold bars for taxation, causing market turmoil, but subsequent clarifications from the White House aimed to stabilize the situation [2]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market attention is shifting towards U.S. inflation data, with the upcoming CPI and PPI reports expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy [3]. - As of August 11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [3]. - If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets and reignite concerns about stagflation; conversely, lower-than-expected CPI could bolster expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3,400 [3]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, the Nasdaq up 0.09%, and the S&P 500 down 0.06% [4][5].

Group 1 - The core message indicates that President Trump stated "gold will not be subject to tariffs," leading to a decline in precious metal prices [2] - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are at $3403.9 per ounce, with a 0.00% change, while international spot gold is up 0.37% at $3354.26 per ounce [2][3] - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, with a shift in sentiment following the release of non-farm payroll data [4] Group 2 - Upcoming discussions between President Trump and President Putin regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have eased geopolitical tensions, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. July CPI data, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - Analysts predict that if inflation data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates, potentially suppressing gold prices [4] Group 3 - The China-U.S. trade talks resulted in a joint statement indicating a temporary suspension of additional tariffs on each other's goods starting August 12, 2025 [4] - The People's Bank of China reported gold purchases for nine consecutive months, with July purchases totaling 1.86 tons, suggesting potential upward movement in precious metal prices [5] - Analysts from 瑞达期货 suggest that long-term trends indicate a strong performance for precious metals, with a focus on whether gold can maintain above $3500 per ounce [5] Group 4 - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, with features such as T+0 trading [5] - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and its stability in relation to credit money supply is emphasized [5]

本文字数：1963，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周引起市场剧烈波动后，美国总统特朗普周一宣布，不会对进口金条加征关税。当天国际金价震荡走低超2%，创近三个月来最大跌幅。与此同时， 对黄金的避险需求因俄乌停火前景而减弱，投资者也在密切关注事关9月美联储降息的最新美国通胀报告及依然不明朗的全球贸易形势进展。 72小时市场巨变 纽约商品交易所近月黄金期货合约周一重挫近2.5%，盘后失守每盎司3400美元，创今年5月以来最大跌幅。 商品经纪商StoneX分析师奥康内尔（Rhona O'Connell）表示："芝加哥商品交易所COMEX库存目前占未平仓合约的86%，而正常情况下为40%-45%，因此 没有流动性问题。"他预计，美国海关与边境保护局仍可能修改其观点，或者华盛顿可能会将第二个HS编码添加到其排除清单中，或者该行业可能会挑战 美国海关与海关保护局的立场。 多重因素或影响短期金价 如今，市场目光将转向最新美国物价数据。美国7月消费者价格指数CPI将于周二公布，周四将公布生产者价格指数PPI。 最近一份弱于预期的美国就业报告增加了交易员对美联储9月份降息的押注。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的F ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, with both spot and futures prices dropping sharply, leading to increased attention on social media platforms [1][2]. Price Movements - As of the latest update, London gold has decreased by over 1.5%, while COMEX gold has fallen by more than 2.6% [2]. - Specific price changes include: - London gold: 3346.170, down 52.409, a decrease of 1.54% [3] - London silver: 37.743, down 0.574, a decrease of 1.50% [3] - COMEX gold: 3399.9, down 91.4, a decrease of 2.62% [3] - COMEX silver: 37.820, down 0.722, a decrease of 1.87% [3] Market Influences - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by rumors regarding "gold bar tariffs," which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8. Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to impose tariffs on imported gold bars [4]. - Following these rumors, the White House is expected to clarify the situation, which may help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to U.S. inflation data, which is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. As of August 11, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [5]. - Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data releases are anticipated to impact market sentiment. Higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. equities, while lower-than-expected CPI could reinforce expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3400 [5]. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.09% [6]. - Specific index performances include: - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44023.73, down 151.88, a decrease of 0.34% [7] - Nasdaq Composite: 21469.93, up 19.91, an increase of 0.09% [7] - S&P 500: 6385.81, down 3.64, a decrease of 0.06% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in gold prices, influenced by rumors of new tariffs on gold bars imported into the U.S. and the upcoming U.S. inflation data that could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, both gold futures and spot prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [3][4]. - The price of London gold was reported at 3346.170, down 52.409, or -1.54%, while COMEX gold was at 3399.9, down 91.4, or -2.62% [4]. Group 2: Tariff Rumors and Market Impact - The drop in gold prices followed reports of the U.S. government imposing tariffs on imported gold bars, which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8 [4]. - A subsequent report from Bloomberg indicated that the White House planned to clarify the tariff situation, which could help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to upcoming U.S. inflation data, with expectations that higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets [5]. - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicated a 90.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with various probabilities for future rate cuts [5].