Group 1 - The recent unexpected decline in U.S. inflation data has drawn significant market attention, suggesting a positive signal of economic cooling and price stability, but the complexities in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation, particularly the subjective weighting of Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), may distort the data and impact Federal Reserve policy accuracy [1][2] - OER, a major component in the housing weight of CPI, is based on homeowners' subjective estimates of rental value rather than actual market transactions, leading to potential statistical biases that may inflate housing costs in CPI calculations [2][4] - The setting of OER weights is not static and lags behind market changes, which diminishes CPI's ability to reflect true inflation levels, especially during rapid economic shifts [2][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve heavily relies on CPI and other economic data for monetary policy decisions, but these data often exhibit lagging characteristics, which can lead to blind spots in policy-making, particularly in a complex and changing economic environment [3][4] - Historical misjudgments by the Federal Reserve, such as the 2021 assessment of inflation as "transitory," were partly due to over-reliance on lagging data that failed to capture underlying economic issues, resulting in delayed policy adjustments [3][4] - The disconnect between Federal Reserve policy and actual economic trends highlights the risks of relying on outdated data, as seen in the unexpected economic growth in 2023 despite predictions of recession following banking turmoil [3][4]

Core Points - The US dollar has fallen to a three-year low due to trade uncertainties and disappointing inflation data [1] - The euro has risen to a three-and-a-half-year high against the dollar as a result of the dollar's decline [1] - European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the monetary policy easing cycle is "coming to an end" as inflation stabilizes near the ECB's target [1]

Group 1 - President Trump expressed a strong stance on monetary policy, advocating for a 1% interest rate cut to reduce government debt interest payments, highlighting the importance of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1][3] - The latest inflation data showed a lower-than-expected month-on-month increase, with the core CPI rising only 0.1% from April and maintaining a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, the slowest since spring 2021 [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra attributed the slowing inflation to Trump's policies, emphasizing that the current administration's actions have significantly improved inflation rates after four years of rising prices [3] Group 2 - Speculation regarding the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair is influencing market sentiment, with Trump indicating he will soon announce a successor to Powell [4] - Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones suggested that Trump may appoint a "super dove" to lead the Federal Reserve, with Becerra being a strong candidate due to Trump's focus on economic growth and loyalty [4] - The interplay between Trump's interest rate cut advocacy, inflation data interpretation, and Federal Reserve Chair speculation reflects the complex dynamics of U.S. economic policy, which is closely monitored by investors and the public [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，金价冲高回 落，上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势 | 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：美国 5 月通胀低于市场预期，数据公布后，美元美债收益 ...

美国劳工部当地时间6月11日公布的数据显示，今年5月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，高 于前值但低于预期；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.1%， 环比涨幅连续第四个月低于预期。分析人士认为，5月美国通胀数据涨幅有限，原因可能是企业使用已 有库存导致价格维持相对稳定。美国加征进口关税的影响可能在未来几个月更为明显。数据公布后，市 场对美联储的降息预期有所升温，交易员普遍预计美联储有望在9月前降息一次，年底前进行第二次降 息。（央视财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance regarding monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The inflation data is anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ahead of the policy decision next week [1] - The impact of increased tariffs is currently limited, which supports the Fed's position [1] - **Market Expectations** - According to LSEG data, the money market fully prices in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 18 [1] - There is an expectation that the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 50% [1]

Core Insights - Barclays economists suggest that the May CPI report may show initial signs of price pressures related to tariffs [1] - The April CPI inflation rate in the U.S. decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 2.3%, moving closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] Group 1 - The April CPI data is viewed as a temporary low point, indicating potential volatility in future reports [1] - High-frequency data tracked by Barclays indicates potential price increase pressures across a wide range of core categories, including clothing, home goods, new cars, and other items [1]

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...

Core Insights - Gold is a global safe-haven asset, and its price fluctuations are closely related to U.S. inflation data. Understanding the linkage between inflation indicators and the gold market can help investors grasp market dynamics [1] Group 1: Key Inflation Indicators - The U.S. inflation monitoring system consists of three main indicators: 1. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Reflects changes in prices of consumer goods and services, directly impacting purchasing power. A sustained rise in CPI often indicates increased inflation pressure and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3] 2. Producer Price Index (PPI): Monitors prices of raw materials and intermediate goods in the production sector, typically serving as a leading indicator for CPI. An increase in PPI usually gradually transmits to the consumer end, indirectly affecting gold market sentiment [3] 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): Covers a broader range of consumer behavior data, making it an important reference for Federal Reserve policy-making due to its flexible statistical methods [3] Group 2: Inflation's Impact on Gold Prices - The influence of inflation data on the gold market operates through multiple mechanisms [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - During inflation data release periods, investors should pay attention to: 1. Real interest rate effect: When inflation growth exceeds nominal interest rates, real interest rates decline, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting gold prices [7] 2. Expectation volatility effect: Market speculation prior to data release can lead to gold sell-offs if CPI exceeds expectations, while underperforming data may stimulate safe-haven buying [7] 3. Policy transmission effect: The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy based on inflation; persistent inflation may delay interest rate cuts, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but long-term stagflation risks still provide support [7] Group 4: Monitoring and Analysis - Investors should monitor the release schedule of CPI, PPI, and PCE data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce [8] - Historical data analysis and market reaction patterns should be examined for regularity [10] - Establishing a two-way trading mindset can help mitigate risks from data exceeding expectations [10] - Choosing trading platforms with robust risk control mechanisms is advisable [10]

Core Viewpoint - Weak U.S. inflation data is seen as a contradictory factor in the U.S. bond market, supporting recent recovery in economic confidence while simultaneously dampening concerns over rampant inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - Weak inflation data signals a temporary limitation on the potential for bearish sentiment towards bonds, as it alleviates fears of rising inflation [1] - The risk of sustained inflation in the U.S. is not a primary concern for investors at this moment [1]