法国极右翼领导人勒庞：美欧新贸易协议是欧盟的惨败 金十数据7月28日讯，法国极右翼领导人勒庞27日在社交媒体上称，美欧达成的新贸易协议是欧盟在政 治、经济和士气上的多重惨败。她指出，欧盟与美国是在条件不平等的情况下达成的协议，这份贸易协 议对法国工业、能源和军事领域而言堪比"投降"。 ...

金十数据7月28日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Chris Turner在一份报告中表示，外汇市场对美欧贸易协议的 反应有限，因为上周就已经有了达成协议的预期。由于市场等待美联储本周的利率决议，欧元承压下 跌。市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变。荷兰国际集团预计，如果美联储继续抵制降息的政治压力， 欧元兑美元可能跌至1.16。数据显示，货币市场预计美联储在10月份之前不会降息。 欧元/美元 荷兰国际：欧元承压下跌 本周美联储料维持利率不变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has reached a new trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - President Trump announced a 15% tariff on EU goods, which he claims is the best result achievable by the European Commission [1] - Key areas such as steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits still have pending tariff agreements [1] Group 2: Reactions and Concerns - European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman Bernd Lange criticized the new trade agreement as severely imbalanced and detrimental to European interests, labeling it a biased agreement [1] - The deadline for finalizing the agreement is approaching, with only a few days left until August 1 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between U.S. President Trump and European Commission President von der Leyen indicates a potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, with Trump estimating a 50% chance of reaching a deal [1] Trade Negotiations - Trump emphasized the desire for fairness in trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU, highlighting that August 1 will be the deadline for all trade agreements except for steel and aluminum [1] - The U.S. and EU are both motivated to resolve trade issues, with Trump suggesting that a resolution could be reached quickly, potentially within an hour [1] Market Conditions - Trump described the European market as being very closed, which may impact the dynamics of trade negotiations and the potential agreement [1]

Core Points - The EU faces a "collective action problem," which hinders trade negotiations with the US [1][6] - The US-EU trade talks are in the final stages, with leaders set to meet for crucial discussions [1][3] - A potential framework trade agreement is estimated to have a 50% chance of being reached, with the EU eager to finalize it [1][3] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US and EU are engaged in "intensive negotiations" on technical and political levels, aiming for a balanced outcome that provides stability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic [3] - The potential agreement may include a 15% general tariff on EU goods entering the US, similar to recent agreements with Japan [3][4] - Trump's administration maintains a firm stance on a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, indicating limited flexibility in this area [3][4] Group 2: Differences Between US-EU and US-Japan Agreements - The economic relationship between the US and EU is characterized by lower complementarity and higher competition compared to the US-Japan relationship [4] - Japan's political and military dependency on the US contrasts with the EU's higher degree of autonomy, particularly for France and Germany [4] - The EU's current capital shortage complicates its ability to negotiate large-scale direct investments as Japan did [4] Group 3: Challenges in Specific Sectors - The EU's stringent food standards make negotiations in agricultural imports more challenging compared to Japan's concessions on agricultural products [5] - The EU may allow limited imports of genetically modified agricultural products, but this is expected to only address a fraction of the trade volume [5] - The aerospace sector could be a potential breakthrough area, although Airbus's strong position in Europe complicates US Boeing's procurement efforts [5] Group 4: Political Considerations and Internal EU Dynamics - The EU's collective decision-making process complicates negotiations, as the European Commission must represent all member states [6] - Recent meetings between German and French leaders indicate a shift towards a unified stance on trade negotiations with the US [7] - Germany's reevaluation of its economic model in light of geopolitical tensions may lead to a more assertive position in trade discussions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report by ING analyst Francesco Pesole indicates that the potential trade agreement between the EU and the US is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro's exchange rate against the dollar [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The EU and the US have not yet announced a trade agreement, and its absence is expected to limit the euro's movement against the dollar [1] - The euro/dollar exchange rate is primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve and US economic data [1] - In the absence of major data releases, if details of the agreement draft are released, the market may experience some short-term adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing a persistent bearish bias, facing resistance around 1.1680, while the dollar remains resilient amid active trade prospects and mixed signals from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding interest rate cuts [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Euro/USD pair showed instability around the 1.1700 region, retreating to a two-week low between 1.1690 and 1.1680 before regaining momentum later in the day [3]. - Geopolitical and trade uncertainties are keeping investors cautious, with recent U.S. tariffs on Japanese and South Korean goods reigniting broader trade conflict concerns, which in turn strengthens the dollar [4]. - Investors remain cautious about a potential U.S.-EU trade agreement, despite both sides emphasizing the necessity of reaching an accord without significant progress [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June, raising inflation and employment forecasts, with a potential rate cut of about 50 basis points by year-end [6]. - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed a split among officials regarding a July rate cut, with most expressing concerns over inflation risks from tariffs, yet agreeing on the need for a rate cut later in the year [6]. Group 3: Speculative Positions and Data Outlook - Speculative long positions in the Euro have slightly weakened to approximately 107.5K contracts, while commercial participants have reduced their net short positions to 160.6K contracts [7]. - Key Eurozone data is anticipated, including the final June inflation rate on July 10, followed by the EMU current account data and German wholesale prices on July 11 [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance for the Euro/USD is at the 2025 high of 1.1830, followed by peaks from September 2018 and June 2018 [9]. - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1441, with further support levels at 1.1210 and 1.1064, and a psychological level at 1.1000 [9]. - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 62 indicating bullish conditions, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is around 32, suggesting a strengthening trend [9]. Group 5: Mid-term Outlook - The Euro/USD pair appears poised to resume its upward trend unless new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, supported by easing risk aversion and the prospect of Fed rate cuts [11]. - Ongoing trade tensions and unpredictable tariff policies from President Trump may limit upside potential in the coming months [11].

Core Viewpoint - German Chancellor Merz expresses optimism regarding the US-EU trade agreement but remains uncertain about whether the agreement will be finalized [1] Group 1 - The German government is hopeful about the potential benefits of a trade agreement with the United States, indicating a positive outlook for transatlantic trade relations [1] - There is a lack of clarity on the timeline and feasibility of reaching a final agreement, which may impact future trade negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The domestic gold market shows stability in jewelry gold prices, with slight declines in some stores. The highest price for gold jewelry at Chow Sang Sang is down by 3 yuan per gram, now at 1020 yuan per gram, aligning with most stores [1] - The price gap between major brand stores remains at 30 yuan per gram, slightly narrowing. The lowest market price is from Caibai at 990 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum prices are on the rise, with a small increase of 1 yuan per gram for platinum jewelry, now priced at 532 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recovery price has decreased by 5 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands. The recovery price for gold is reported at 766.70 yuan per gram [2] - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a minimum drop to 3347.19 USD per ounce, closing at 3370.21 USD per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% [4] - The Federal Reserve's emphasis on high inflation risks has weakened market expectations for short-term interest rate cuts, putting downward pressure on gold prices [4]

Group 1 - European officials are increasingly willing to accept a 10% reciprocal tariff benchmark rate in any US-EU trade agreement [1]