Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.47 with a 1.62bp increase, DR007 at 1.56 with a 2.34bp decrease, GC001 at 1.67 with a 26.00bp increase, and GC007 at 1.64 with a 0.50bp increase. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with a 0.40bp increase, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.43 (-0.50bp), 1.54 (-4.75bp), and 1.81 (1.75bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 3.97 with a 1.70bp decrease [4] - The central bank conducted 4753 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1595 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily investment was 3158 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Central Bank's Policy Announcement - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said on October 27 that the central bank suspended treasury bond trading at the beginning of this year due to supply - demand imbalance and accumulated market risks in the bond market. Now that the bond market is operating well, it will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations [5] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4692 (-0.51%), 3050 (-0.62%), 7341 (-0.52%), and 7479 (-0.22%) respectively. The trading volume of the two stock markets was 21479 billion yuan, a decrease of 1923 billion yuan from the previous day. Shipbuilding, shipping ports, automotive services, aerospace, railways, and airports led the gains, while precious metals, energy metals, wind power equipment, steel, non - ferrous metals, and beauty care led the losses [6] - The stock index rose and then fell yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly broke through the 4000 - point mark but entered a volatile phase due to lack of significant volume. In the short term, with the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the stock index may return to an upward trend. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still room for growth, and the strategy is to buy on dips and use the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance long - term long - position strategies [7] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts vary across different delivery months. For example, IF's current - month contract has a 3.10% premium, IH's current - month contract has a 0.39% discount, IC's current - month contract has an 11.11% premium, and IM's current - month contract has a 14.08% premium [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term shock adjustment of stock indices is mainly affected by intensified overseas disturbances and adjustments in some high - position sectors. As unfavorable factors such as trade frictions gradually ease, stock indices are expected to return to the upward channel. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. It is recommended to take a long - term long position [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - Interest rate products' closing prices and changes: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.52bp increase; DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.40 with a 5.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57 with a 6.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.48 with a 0.25bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.62 with a 0.82bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 0.50bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.02 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations in the open market, with 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net investment (including treasury cash) of 1981 billion yuan [4] - This week, 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1890 billion, 1595 billion, 1382 billion, 2125 billion, and 1680 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, 7000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Market - Stock index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4661 with a 1.18% increase; SSE 50 at 3046 with a 0.62% increase; CSI 500 at 7259 with a 1.62% increase; CSI 1000 at 7419 with a 1.52% increase. Futures closing prices and changes: IF current - month contract at 4648 with a 1.2% increase; IH current - month contract at 3048 with a 0.8% increase; IC current - month contract at 7212 with a 1.7% increase; IM current - month contract at 7369 with a 1.7% increase [7] - Futures trading volume and position changes: IF trading volume was 116181 with a 9.4% decrease, and position was 255413 with a 3.5% decrease; IH trading volume was 58979 with a 2.2% decrease, and position was 95329 with a 1.4% increase; IC trading volume was 137728 with a 5.1% decrease, and position was 243604 with a 4.2% decrease; IM trading volume was 224453 with a 13.8% decrease, and position was 349089 with a 7.0% decrease [7] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.7; SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3045.8; CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7258.5; CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7419.2. Shenwan primary industry indices generally rose, with communication (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while only agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.4%) and food and beverage (- 0.9%) declined. The daily trading volume of A - shares last week was 15749 billion, 17043 billion, 15180 billion, 15106 billion, and 17592 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 3494.9 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 3.70%, 3.75%, 3.06%, and 3.10% respectively; IH premium rates are - 1.19%, - 0.62%, - 0.35%, and - 0.30% respectively; IC premium rates are 9.04%, 9.19%, 9.20% respectively; IM premium rates are 9.47%, 11.05%, 11.58%, and 11.66% respectively. The values in parentheses are annualized premium and discount rates (green for premium, red for discount) [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The LPR quotes remained stable in October 2025. With the gradual alleviation of adverse factors from trade frictions, stock index futures are expected to return to an upward trend. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited due to policy support and abundant macro - liquidity. The strategy is to choose the right time to go long on the stock index [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Interest Rates and Bonds - The closing price of DROO1 was 1.32, up 0.08bp; DR007 was 1.43, down 0.60bp; GC001 was 1.45, down 4.00bp; GC007 was 1.51, up 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M was 1.59, up 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond was 1.48, down 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury bond was 1.59, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond was 1.84, up 0.95bp; 10 - year US treasury bond was 3.98, up 2.70bp [3]. - The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. 236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. This week, 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 253.8 billion, 91 billion, 43.5 billion, 236 billion, and 164.8 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [3][4]. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4606, up 0.3%; IF current - month contract was 4594, up 0.4%; SSE 50 was 3027, up 0.56%; IH current - month contract was 3025, up 0.7%; CSI 500 was 7143, up 0.2%; IC current - month contract was 7091, up 0.4%; CSI 1000 was 7308, down 0.06%; IM current - month contract was 7249, up 0.2% [5]. - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. The trading volume of IF was 128,274, up 32.3%; open interest was 264,665, up 6.2%. The trading volume of IH was 60,316, up 28.1%; open interest was 94,029, up 6.3%. The trading volume of IC was 145,145, up 32.9%; open interest was 254,337, up 7.6%. The trading volume of IM was 260,447, up 42.8%; open interest was 375,481, up 99% [5]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.6439 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 23.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with coal, energy metals, culture and media, shipping ports, chemical fiber, and diversified finance sectors leading the gains, while construction machinery, mining, non - metallic materials, and biological products sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.48%, 3.55%, 2.81%, and 2.97% respectively. The basis rates of IH current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.96%, 0.66%, 0.17%, and 0.33% respectively. The basis rates of IC current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.08%, 9.23%, 9.20%, and 9.47% respectively. The basis rates of IM current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.21%, 11.31%, 11.51%, and 11.70% respectively [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In the fourth quarter, the market style may return to value and be more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4539.60, 4495.80, 4485.20, and 4463.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4519.80, 4506.80, 4482.00, and 4447.20 respectively. The price changes were - 20.06, 9.40, - 2.60, and - 15.80 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 300 index of - 0.44, 0.21, - 0.06, and - 0.35. The trading volumes were 25145.00, 71457.00, 12171.00, and 3514.00 respectively, and the positions were 40679.00, 156399.00, 56967.00, and 3406.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 40679.00, 112532.00, - 106267.00, and - 55287.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2983.00, 2964.20, 2963.00, and 2963.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2972.00, 2970.40, 2972.00, and 2969.80 respectively. The price changes were - 11.27, 7.40, 10.40, and 7.20 respectively, with corresponding changes in the SSE 50 index of - 0.38, 0.25, 0.35, and 0.24. The trading volumes were 13161.00, 34271.00, 4201.00, and 986.00 respectively, and the positions were 14994.00, 60464.00, 13478.00, and 956.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 14994.00, 44254.00, - 54024.00, and - 13254.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7064.00, 6922.40, 6863.20, and 6702.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6972.00, 6909.20, 6747.40, and 6567.00 respectively. The price changes were - 92.34, - 12.60, - 117.60, and - 136.60 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 500 index of - 1.31, - 0.18, - 1.71, and - 2.04. The trading volumes were 28764.00, 81712.00, 17991.00, and 6366.00 respectively, and the positions were 48948.00, 135493.00, 52568.00, and 6207.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 48948.00, 82817.00, - 87905.00, and - 47231.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7230.20, 7100.00, 7020.80, and 6805.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7137.60, 7059.20, 6841.60, and 6637.40 respectively. The price changes were - 92.73, - 44.80, - 182.60, and - 170.60 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 1000 index of - 1.28, - 0.63, - 2.60, and - 2.51. The trading volumes were 44989.00, 143577.00, 28288.00, and 11429.00 respectively, and the positions were 71066.00, 189654.00, 82550.00, and 11067.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 71066.00, 112051.00, - 116798.00, and - 76204.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.00, - 1.60, - 62.80, and - 78.40 respectively, while the previous values were - 43.80, - 18.80, - 141.60, and - 130.20 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 index had a previous value of 4538.22, a previous two - day value of 4514.23, and a change rate of 0.53. The SSE 50 index had a previous value of 2974.86, a previous two - day value of 2967.77, and a change rate of 0.24. The CSI 500 index had a previous value of 7069.64, a previous two - day value of 7016.07, and a change rate of 0.76. The CSI 1000 index had a previous value of 7239.18, a previous two - day value of 7185.48, and a change rate of 0.75 [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the energy, industrial, optional consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, real estate and finance, information technology, and telecommunications industries had positive change rates of 1.98%, 0.93%, 0.99%, 0.15%, 0.15%, 0.98%, and 3.21% respectively, while the raw materials, major consumption, and public utilities industries had negative change rates of - 1.17%, - 0.48%, and - 0.05% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts**: The basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index had previous values of - 18.42, - 31.42, - 56.22, and - 91.02 respectively, and previous two - day values of 25.37, - 18.43, - 29.03, and - 51.23 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the SSE 50 index had previous values of - 2.86, - 4.46, - 2.86, and - 5.06 respectively, and previous two - day values of 15.23, - 3.57, - 4.77, and - 4.17 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 500 index had previous values of - 97.64, - 160.44, - 322.24, and - 502.64 respectively, and previous two - day values of 47.93, - 93.67, - 152.87, and - 314.07 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 index had previous values of - 101.58, - 179.98, - 397.58, and - 601.78 respectively, and previous two - day values of 44.72, - 85.48, - 164.68, and - 380.48 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous values of 3863.89, 12813.21, 7870.96, and 2993.45 respectively, previous two - day values of 3839.76, 12688.94, 7815.57, and 2935.37 respectively, and change rates of 0.63%, 0.98%, 0.71%, and 1.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index had previous values of 25858.83, 47582.15, 6735.13, and 24258.80 respectively, previous two - day values of 25247.10, 48277.74, 6664.01, and 23830.99 respectively, and change rates of 2.42%, - 1.44%, 1.07%, and 1.80% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China started on October 20 in Beijing. China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table. The GDP in the first three quarters of China increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. The national fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the per - capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors. The housing prices in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPRs in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the work plan for stabilizing growth in the building materials industry. The transfer fees of residential land in 300 cities increased by 12% year - on - year in the first three quarters, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. China's wind power installation targets were comprehensively raised. As of the end of September, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. In September, the production of raw coal decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, the production of crude oil increased by 4.1%, the production of natural gas increased by 9.4%, and the production of crude steel and pig iron reached new lows since December 2023 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Exports have performed better than expected. From January to September 2025, China's exports in RMB terms increased by 7.1% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4% in September, driven by the base effect and the strong performance of mechanical and electrical products [3]. - In September, the year-on-year declines in CPI and PPI both narrowed. The CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly up from -0.4% last month but still lower than the market expectation of -0.1%. The PPI was -2.3%, narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from last month [3]. - The growth rate of social financing has declined, but household deposits have become more active. At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value. The acceleration of government bond issuance is the main factor supporting the high growth rate of social financing stock [3]. - Short - term policy expectations remain. From October 20 - 23, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, analyze and study the current economic situation, and deploy economic work for the second half of the year [3]. - Sino - US tariff policies have escalated, and the Sino - US equity markets have been severely hit. Since early October, the US has introduced a series of restrictive measures against China, and China has taken counter - measures [3]. - The market trading volume shrank last week. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 21038 billion yuan, 23147 billion yuan, 18835 billion yuan, 17526 billion yuan, and 17598 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 1132.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, market risk appetite may fluctuate. As the adverse factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. It is advisable to focus on risk avoidance in the short term, and the large - cap style may be more resilient. Stock index futures long investors can consider using options tools for risk hedging [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Index Market Review - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.22% to 4514.2; the SSE 50 fell 0.24% to 2967.8; the CSI 500 fell 5.17% to 7016.1; the CSI 1000 fell 4.62% to 7185.5 [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, only the banking (4.9%), food and beverage (0.9%), and transportation (0.4%) sectors rose last week, while the electronics (-7.1%), media (-6.3%), and other sectors led the decline [7]. - As of October 17, the monthly contracts expired. The annualized discounts of the next - month contracts IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 were 5.32%, 1.57%, 17.4%, and 15.51% respectively [11]. - The spread between the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 was at the 94.1% historical quantile level; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at the 34.7% historical quantile level [15]. 2. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 6331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase operations in the open market. After deducting the maturity amount, a net回笼 (including treasury cash) of 6979 billion yuan was achieved this week. Next week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [20]. - As of October 16, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24496.3 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin - buying amount to the total market trading volume was 12.3%, at the 98.1% quantile level in the past decade [26]. 3. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 from August; the new order index was 49.7, up 0.2; the new export order index was 47.8, up 0.6 [36]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 in Q2 2025, Q1 2025, and Q4 2024 were 2.49%, 3.32%, and 2.78% respectively; the ROE (TTM) was 9.71%, 9.75%, and 10.09% respectively [40]. 4. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - In September, the Ministry of Commerce stated that relevant departments had introduced more than 30 policies to establish a "1 + N" policy system for service consumption and would introduce a series of targeted documents [45]. - From September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, residents using personal consumption loans for consumption can enjoy an interest - subsidy policy, with a subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point [47]. 5. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 percentage points from the previous value [55]. - In August 2025, the US PCE increased by 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 2.91% year - on - year; the CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year [61]. - Trump has proposed a series of tariff increase measures against China, and China has taken corresponding counter - measures [63][65].

Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend. In the short term, due to the impact of Sino - US trade, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. From a capital perspective, the domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. Additionally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4 pro - growth policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4585.60, 4572.40, 4562.60, and 4541.20 respectively, with declines of - 29.60, - 31.20, - 30.60, and - 30.00. The trading volumes were 44944.00, 9140.00, 97200.00, and 16995.00, and the open interests were 49745.00, 12664.00, 163856.00, and 57094.00, with changes of - 1285.00, 3532.00, 885.00, and 1646.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 2966.20, 2962.60, 2961.60, and 2962.00, with declines of - 7.80, - 10.60, - 11.60, and - 10.60. The trading volumes were 19083.00, 3473.00, 44552.00, and 6422.00, and the open interests were 20024.00, 4171.00, 65965.00, and 13363.00, with changes of - 1061.00, 1081.00, - 1723.00, and - 517.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, and the previous day's closing prices were 7350.00, 7278.00, 7231.00, and 7059.80, with declines of - 39.60, - 42.00, - 41.60, and - 49.40. The trading volumes were 42277.00, 11392.00, 101843.00, and 21216.00, and the open interests were 49319.00, 22616.00, 143038.00, and 52606.00, with changes of - 1211.00, 3775.00, 2838.00, and 2103.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7476.80, 7395.00, 7305.80, and 7077.60, with declines of - 42.80, - 32.40, - 40.60, and - 49.80. The trading volumes were 65213.00, 20080.00, 169889.00, and 31368.00, and the open interests were 68201.00, 28943.00, 190790.00, and 83351.00, with changes of - 2755.00, 6744.00, 7523.00, and 2846.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4593.98, 2967.21, 7376.56, and 7519.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.50, - 0.26, - 0.29, and - 0.19. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 315.01, 70.16, 258.03, and 288.40, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7140.02, 1857.83, 4732.86, and 4709.91 respectively [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries in the CSI 300 industry index, the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 1.93%, while industries such as optional consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. had declines, with optional consumption at - 2.02%, pharmaceutical and healthcare at - 2.33% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against the CSI 300 were - 8.38, - 21.58, - 31.38, and - 52.78 respectively, compared to - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 two days ago [1]. - **IH Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 1.01, - 4.61, - 5.61, and - 5.21 respectively, compared to 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 two days ago [1]. - **IC Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were - 26.56, - 98.56, - 145.56, and - 316.76 respectively, compared to - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 two days ago [1]. - **IM Contracts Basis**: The previous day's basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were - 42.96, - 124.76, - 213.96, and - 442.16 respectively, compared to - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 two days ago [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.50, 13231.47, 8189.82, and 3078.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.19%, - 0.93%, - 1.25%, and - 1.11% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25889.48, 48088.80, 6654.72, and 24387.93 respectively, with changes of - 1.52%, - 1.01%, 1.56%, and 0.60% [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China has officially implemented a special port - dues policy for US ships starting today. In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (up 8.4%) and imports at 1.7 trillion yuan (up 7.5%), achieving year - on - year double - growth for four consecutive months. In the third quarter, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 6% year - on - year, achieving year - on - year growth for eight consecutive quarters. China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a decline for the third consecutive month [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Since 24:00 on October 13, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively. As of the end of June 2025, during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's shipbuilding industry had received 64.2% of global new ship orders, 15.1 percentage points higher than during the "13th Five - Year Plan" period, ranking first in the world for 16 consecutive years. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger - car market reached 2.241 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. From January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investments of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and it is expected that the annual investment scale will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints -节前市场成交量萎缩，避险情绪升温，股指短期向上突破概率降低，预计延续震荡走势；节后市场关注点转向增量政策，包括重要会议与政策动向，市场对年内降息有期待，促消费与稳地产政策蓄势待发；建议节前控制股指仓位，节后关注政策或资金面变化带来的突破机会 [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rates and Bond Yields - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.23bp change, DR007 at 1.59 with a 3.17bp change, GC001 at 1.34 with a -2.00bp change, GC007 at 1.49 with a -38.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.36 with a 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.62 with a 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.75bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 2886 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 481 billion yuan [3] Market Liquidity Outlook - This week, 5166 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2405 billion and 2761 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively. Additionally, 3000 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase agreements will mature on Tuesday [4] - The central bank governor said that China's monetary policy adheres to self - orientation and balances internal and external factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [4] Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.54% to 4620, the SSE 50 rose 1.09% to 2973, the CSI 500 rose 1.51% to 7351, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.36% to 7498. The trading volume of the two markets reached 21615 billion yuan, an increase of 146 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with energy metals, securities, batteries, and precious metals rising significantly, while the education sector led the decline [5] Stock Index Futures Performance - IF contracts: IF当月 rose 1.8%, IF volume increased by 37.2% to 166084, and IF open interest increased by 93 to 284149 [5] - IH contracts: IH当月 rose 1.0%, IH volume increased by 77.5% to 85621, and IH open interest increased by 18.6% to 113877 [5] - IC contracts: IC当月 rose 1.9%, IC volume increased by 17.9% to 160425, and IC open interest increased by 1.7% to 256603 [5] - IM contracts: IM当月 rose 1.7%, IM volume increased by 17.1% to 284619, and IM open interest increased by 0.7% to 367256 [5] Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - IF升贴水: 0.00% for next - month contract, 1.56% for current - month contract, 1.51% for current - quarter contract, 1.88% for next - quarter contract [7] - IH升贴水: - 0.65% for next - month contract, - 0.73% for current - month contract, - 0.45% for current - quarter contract, - 0.34% for next - quarter contract [7] - IC升贴水: 2.14% for next - month contract, 6.85% for current - month contract, 7.26% for current - quarter contract, 8.42% for next - quarter contract [7] - IM升贴水: 3.69% for next - month contract, 8.64% for current - month contract, 9.64% for current - quarter contract, 10.85% for next - quarter contract [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, economic data generally weakened, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline, and consumer growth marginally slowing. Only industrial production remained at a high level. Macro - policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustments, relying more on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand. The active fiscal policy is being implemented faster, and the monetary policy has more room for operation, with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts still expected [39]. - Recently, stock index futures have risen, driven by policy, funds, and sentiment, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved. With the approaching National Day holiday, there is uncertainty in the external market, so risk control for stock indices should be done before the holiday. The released US economic data is positive, and there are differences within the Federal Reserve on future interest - rate policies. Gold may face short - term callback risks [39]. - In the short term, due to the approaching National Day holiday, stock indices may face callback risks, and gold may enter a phase of adjustment after accelerating its rise. In the medium - to - long term, stock indices will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and gold may face a deep adjustment [39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, economic data generally weakened. Fixed - asset investment growth continued to decline, the decline in real - estate investment further expanded, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed. After a brief recovery, real - estate sales declined again, and real - estate enterprises were cautious about land acquisition and new project construction [4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - Before the holiday, the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations, and market liquidity remained abundant. The gap between M1 and M2 narrowed, and the acceleration of social financing growth was mainly driven by the large - scale issuance of government bonds, including ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds [14][15]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank carried out 1567.4 billion yuan of 7 - day and 900 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse - repurchase operations, as well as 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net withdrawal of 940.6 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8% quarter - on - quarter, reaching a two - year high, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased for two consecutive weeks. The US economy remains robust, and labor demand has slowed but is still within the range of full employment, supporting the Fed's preventive interest - rate cuts [25]. 4. Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market sentiment for going long [38].