Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high overseas, and the pattern of stronger domestic prices may continue. With the domestic downstream in the off - season and slower inventory depletion, and continuously improving macro - expectations, the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices also rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. In the industrial aspect, it is the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has declined, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Against the backdrop of favorable domestic and overseas macro - conditions and high market risk appetite, the macro - environment strongly supports non - ferrous metals. With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will also show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Overseas: Gold prices continued to fall in the second half of the week, and silver and copper may have also been significantly affected and declined. - Domestic: The domestic market atmosphere was good last week, with commodities generally rising. In the first half of the week, the non - ferrous metal sector rose across the board, but in the second half, the long - short game intensified, the market showed obvious differentiation, and the non - ferrous metal sector showed a downward trend with reduced positions [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. SHFE copper once touched the 80,000 RMB mark, and LME copper once approached the 10,000 US - dollar mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions, and the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2]. - **Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end, and the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [21]. - **Slower Depletion of Electrolytic Copper Inventory**: The depletion of domestic electrolytic copper inventory has slowed down, and the inventory is low in China and high overseas [2]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is provided in the report, but no specific analysis is given [29]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell last week, and the main contract price of SHFE aluminum once touched the 21,000 RMB mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions after the price approached 21,000 RMB [3]. - **Upstream Industrial Chain**: Information on the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina is provided, but no specific analysis is given [39]. - **Accumulation of Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the overseas inventory is also shown in the report [3]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods and the processing fees and inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are provided, but no specific analysis is given [47]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. - Aluminum: With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [54].

Core Insights - In June, U.S. businesses unexpectedly reduced orders for commercial equipment, indicating a cautious attitude towards capital expenditure due to uncertainties in trade and government policies [1][4] - Durable goods orders fell by 9.3%, better than the expected decline of 10.7%, while non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft decreased by 0.7%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.1% [5][6] - The report highlights that small businesses have also reduced capital spending and investment plans due to increased import tariffs eroding profits and raising raw material costs [5] Economic Indicators - Core capital goods shipments, which exclude aircraft and military equipment, increased by 0.5%, revised from 0.4%, indicating a clearer picture of actual sales [6] - The U.S. Commerce Department is set to release preliminary estimates for second-quarter GDP, with expectations of a 0.5 percentage point annualized decline in business equipment spending compared to the first quarter [6] - Boeing reported a significant drop in orders for commercial aircraft in June, with only 116 orders compared to 303 in May, reflecting volatility in this sector [6] Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding trade and tariff policies continues to pose risks for long-term investment planning, particularly for companies with global supply chains [5] - The manufacturing sector's performance has been mixed, with a notable decline in the preliminary manufacturing index from S&P Global, marking the largest drop in three years [6]

智通财经APP获悉，截至7月22日，金属已成为2025年表现最佳的大宗商品子类，其中贵金属年内涨幅 达26.2%，工业金属上涨10.9%。然而，展望今年剩余时间，BMI研究机构对工业金属维持中性偏空的 展望，认为预期需求将走弱。 该机构近期维持2025年黄金均价3100美元/盎司的预测，并对未来几个月的金价持中性态度。 其认为，美联储在2025年末及2026年的降息声明，将是未来金价上涨的关键因素。 此外，BMI预计黄金将继续受益于各国央行增持行为，同时特朗普政府贸易政策变动的不确定性也将为 金价提供支撑底线。 中国市场金属消费在未来几个季度可能面临越来越大的阻力，这一方面来自美国关税政策的不确定性， 另一方面源于曾推动零售销售增长的消费品以旧换新政策效应逐渐减弱。 BMI分析师指出，从积极面来看，美元走弱可能在下半年为金属价格提供支撑。鉴于金属与美元存在反 向关联，这一因素将帮助金属价格维持稳定，遏制潜在跌幅。 至于贵金属，受避险需求、美元走弱以及美联储可能转向宽松政策带来的投资者信心改善等因素推动， 黄金价格目前在每盎司3342美元附近波动。 这主要源于中国市场消费疲软，以及2025年全球增长前景放缓，全 ...

日本PMI初值显示私营部门承压关税影响 金十数据7月24日讯，标普全球PMI初值数据显示，日本私营部门活动在第三季度初持续扩张，但关税 忧虑仍构成拖累。标普全球市场财智经济学家安娜贝尔·菲德斯指出，贸易政策不确定性导致服务业企 业和制造商对全年产出的乐观程度下降。由于企业信心处于新冠疫情初期以来的第二低位，招聘活动有 所放缓。7月工厂产出再度下滑，制造商面临新订单持续减少的局面，因客户多持观望态度，这与服务 业活动的稳健增长形成反差。菲德斯表示，企业同时反映成本压力持续缓解，暗示通胀可能在夏季进一 步降温。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's manufacturing activity has entered a contraction phase in July due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, with the manufacturing PMI dropping below the neutral mark for the first time in 13 months [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI preliminary value for July fell from June's final value of 50.1 to 48.8, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Key sub-indices such as output and new orders decreased at the fastest rates in four months and three months, respectively, as companies reassess the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Services Sector - In contrast to manufacturing, Japan's services sector continues to perform well, with activity growth reaching its fastest pace in five months driven by strong demand [1] Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding future trade policies is negatively impacting expectations for the upcoming year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 23, 2025, including股指期货 (strong - biased oscillation),国债期货 (weak - biased oscillation), and multiple commodity futures (strong - biased, weak - biased, or wide - range oscillations) [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity market saw a rare limit - up surge, with six major futures contracts such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon closing at the limit - up. The night session of domestic black futures continued to rise, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29%. International precious metal futures generally rose, while international oil prices slightly declined [12]. 2. Macro - economic News - The "Rural Highway Regulations" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways. The US and China may discuss issues such as China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The WTO released an arbitration ruling on a Sino - EU trade dispute, and China expressed dissatisfaction. As of the end of June, the number of participants in basic old - age, unemployment, and work - related injury insurance in China increased steadily year - on - year. In the first half of the year, non - bank cross - border capital inflows in China reached $127.3 billion, and foreign investors net - bought domestic stocks and funds worth $10.1 billion, reversing the net - selling trend of the past two years [7]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 22, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed a trend of opening slightly higher, first falling then rising, and oscillating upwards. It is expected that on July 23, stock index futures will oscillate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4132 and 4168 points and support levels at 4110 and 4090 points [16][20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 22, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts T2509 and TL2509 showed a downward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate weakly. T2509 has support levels at 108.50 and 108.45 yuan and resistance levels at 108.70 and 108.79 yuan; TL2509 has support levels at 119.2 and 118.6 yuan and resistance levels at 119.8 and 120.1 yuan [38][44]. 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2510 and the silver futures contract AG2510 both showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 794.9 and 798.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 will attack resistance levels at 9550 and 9600 yuan/kg and may reach a new high since listing [44][53]. 3.4 Base Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that on July 23, copper futures CU2509 will oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels at 80400 and 80800 yuan/ton; aluminum futures AL2509 will also oscillate strongly with resistance levels at 21000 and 21080 yuan/ton [56][61]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Futures - On July 22, 2025, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 declined. It is expected that on July 23, it will oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 506 and 510 yuan/barrel. Other energy and chemical futures such as PTA, PVC, and methanol also have corresponding trends and forecasts [95]. 3.6 Agricultural Futures - On July 22, 2025, the soybean meal futures contract M2509 and the natural rubber futures contract RU2509 showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. M2509 has resistance levels at 3100 and 3109 yuan/ton; RU2509 has resistance levels at 15280 and 15350 yuan/ton [104][106]. 3.7 Other Commodity Futures - On July 22, 2025, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and other commodity futures contracts showed significant increases, with many closing at the limit - up. It is expected that on July 23, they will continue to show strong - biased or wide - range oscillations. For example, coking coal futures JM2509 has a high probability of closing at the limit - up of 1048.5 yuan/ton [90][91].

Core Insights - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, highlighted that the uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains extremely high [1] - Maintaining an accommodative monetary policy is crucial to support the economy [1] Group 1 - The high level of uncertainty in trade policies could impact economic stability [1] - The Bank of Japan's commitment to a loose monetary policy indicates a proactive approach to economic support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steepening of the yield curve is attributed to increasing uncertainty in trade policies [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted that the reasons for the steepening yield curve reflect heightened uncertainty in trade policies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged, breaking the $3400 per ounce mark for the first time since June 17, driven by uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [2][3] - Trump's announcement of high tariffs on multiple major economies, effective August 1, has contributed to market uncertainty, which is favorable for gold prices [3] - Speculation about an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and potential changes in its leadership have heightened market anxiety, further supporting gold [3][4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a July rate cut is based on rising economic risks and limited inflation impact from tariffs, which has kept the dollar below recent highs, thus supporting precious metals [4] - Market expectations suggest the Fed will remain inactive until September, with rate futures indicating a potential cumulative cut of 50 basis points by year-end [4] - Recent U.S. economic data, including a decline in the Conference Board's leading economic index and an unexpected rise in consumer confidence, may buffer the dollar's decline and influence gold prices [4] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face strong resistance in the $3365-$3366 range, and a breakthrough could signal bullish momentum towards the $3400 mark and further test the $3434-$3435 resistance area [4] - On the downside, initial support is seen in the $3325-$3322 range, with a potential deeper correction if prices fall below $3300, targeting the June swing low of $3248-$3247 [5]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to delay its final interest rate cut until December, with no immediate concerns about the market prematurely concluding the end of the easing cycle [1] - Most economists surveyed expect the deposit rate to be reduced by 25 basis points to 1.75% in September, but half believe that traders will not immediately conclude that rates have bottomed out even if the ECB maintains rates in the following meetings [3] - The uncertainty in trade policies is contributing to a longer "policy observation period," allowing the ECB more time to assess economic and inflation dynamics before making decisions [3] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated a preference for maintaining current policy stability in July to further observe economic and inflation trends [3] - There is a lack of consensus among ECB decision-makers regarding future policy directions, with some officials expressing caution about further rate cuts [3][4] - Concerns about inflation remaining below the 2% target, particularly with a strengthening euro, are prompting some officials to consider more accommodative policies to boost inflation [4] Group 3 - The internal divisions within the ECB reflect the complexities of formulating future policies, balancing economic growth resilience against the need to ensure inflation progresses towards targets [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring ECB actions, as predictions and statements from economists and officials will influence expectations for future interest rate movements and asset price fluctuations [4]