1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then disrupt LPG prices; the overseas LPG market still has support in the near - term [1] - From the perspective of the domestic market valuation, the difference between domestic and foreign prices is high, but the basis is low; the spot is strong, but the feedback of poor PDH profits may appear, and subsequent drivers may be bearish [1] - Follow - up attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 changed. For example, the price of华南液化气 increased from 4590 to 4855, and the纸面 import profit increased from - 80 to 234 [1] - On January 8, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of华南液化气 decreased by 10,华东液化气 increased by 10, and山东液化气 decreased by 20, etc. The daily change of the纸面 import profit was 126, and that of the主力基差 was 36 [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On Thursday, the futures market fluctuated mainly. The 02 - 03 spread was 103 (+18), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 170 (-11). As of 8 p.m., the FEI and CP paper prices were 505.24 and 518.24 US dollars respectively, down 8 and 6 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the domestic futures market fluctuated. It soared after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30) [1] - Domestic civil gas prices showed differentiation. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); the price in East China was 4376 (-8), and that in South China was 4590 (+80). The overseas market rose; the official price of January CP opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1] - Both domestic and foreign markets strengthened, mainly because the overseas market fell on Friday while the domestic market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane in January were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, the inland market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for large - scale inventory reduction is high MTO operation. Currently, MTO profit is average, which suppresses the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Short - term shipments may remain normal. Attention should also be paid to changes in oil prices. The current limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors, and if oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas market in Europe and the US is stable, as is Southeast Asia. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price spreads are oscillating, with LD weakening. The number of September maintenance is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7] - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is oscillating, and the powder production operation rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at - 270 for the 01 contract, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price data includes various spot prices (e.g., Jiangsu, South China, Lunan, etc.), CFR prices, import profit, and主力基差. There are also daily changes in prices. For example, the South China spot price increased by 10, and the Northwest discounted price decreased by 7 [2] Polyethylene - Price and inventory data for different regions and types of polyethylene, such as Northeast Asian ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, etc. The daily change in the North China LL price is 80, and the two - oil inventory increased by 216. The overall inventory situation is as described in the core views [7] Polypropylene - Price data including Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, East China PP, etc. The daily change in East China PP price is 60, and the主力期货 price increased by 63. The inventory and valuation situations are as described in the core views [7] PVC - Price and profit - related data such as Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, different production - method prices in different regions, import and export profits, etc. The daily change in Northwest calcium carbide price is 50, and the East China calcium carbide - based price increased by 70. The basis, inventory, and other situations are as described in the core views [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market showed mixed trends this week. The internal market fluctuated, with prices rising on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then falling back. The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected. Overall, the Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and disturb LPG prices. The overseas LPG market has near - term support. The internal valuation is high relative to the external, but the basis is low. The feedback of strong spot but poor PDH profits may emerge, and subsequent drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] Summary by Directory Daily Situation - On Wednesday, the LPG futures market remained strong, possibly due to the rising prices of the LPG external market and downstream products. The 02 - 03 spread was 83 (-11), and the 03 - 04 spread was -165 (+20). As of 8 pm, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 513.25 and 524.25 US dollars respectively, down 3.5 and 1.5 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] Weekly Situation - This week, the internal market fluctuated. On Wednesday, it soared after the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). Domestic civil gas prices were divided. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); prices in East China were 4376 (-8), and in South China were 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal and external prices strengthened mainly because the external market fell on Friday while the internal market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival - at - shore premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the 1 - month FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a decline in the Malaysian palm oil market after breaking below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are also expected to be weak in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil may be affected by related varieties. In China, the inventory of soybean oil in oil mills is decreasing, and the fundamentals are positive [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. There may be a risk of further decline in the futures price, and the spot price fluctuates with the market [1]. 2.2 Cotton The ICE cotton futures are rising. The US cotton is expected to be volatile. In China, the cotton sales progress is faster than last year, and there are no obvious negative factors. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 2.3 Sugar The ICE raw sugar futures are slightly rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In China, the sugar price is expected to be weak and volatile due to the expected increase in production [4]. 2.4 Jujube The current spot market trading of jujube is light, and the price is loose. The new - season warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction [6]. 2.5 Corn In the short - term, the corn price will be volatile due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy supply. The price will be suppressed by policy releases and potential pre - festival selling pressure [8]. 2.6 Pork The spot price of pork has returned to a volatile pattern. The futures price is expected to be in a consolidation phase in the short - term, with limited upward space [10]. 2.7 Meal The global soybean supply is loose, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic meal market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with limited downward space [13]. 2.8 Eggs The inventory of laying hens may decrease, and the supply pressure may ease. The egg price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern due to the relatively loose supply [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1.09% to 554 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 66.67% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 6.68% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spread increased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [1]. 3.2 Cotton 3.2.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the futures price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - Industrial inventory, imports, and cotton outbound transportation volume increased, while textile industry inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the futures price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales decreased, and the inventory in some regions decreased [4]. 3.4 Jujube 3.4.1 Futures Price - The futures price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the futures price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4.2 Spot Price - The spot price of Cangzhou super - grade jujube decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade jujube remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Corn 3.5.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.31% [8]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.91% [8]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 550 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.3 Spot Indicators - The slaughter volume increased by 0.07% to 225069 heads, and the self - breeding and reproduction profit increased by 73.41% [10]. 3.7 Meal 3.7.1 Price Changes - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. 3.7.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly [13]. 3.8 Eggs 3.8.1 Futures Market - The futures price of egg 03 increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of egg 04 increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan/500KG [15]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The egg产区 price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan/jin [15]. 3.8.3 Related Indicators - The egg - feed ratio decreased by 2.08%, and the breeding profit decreased by 13.96% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, the MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the changes in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling of methanol [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. The major producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while the social inventory remains flat. The raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream enterprises are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and the United States are stable, and the Southeast Asian market is also stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The number of maintenance projects in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and the US price quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The inventory of major producers and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and the United States are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the price of propylene is fluctuating, and the operation rate of powder plants is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance projects, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of mid - upstream enterprises is continuously accumulating. In summer, the northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, monitor the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Monitor whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and the operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of various regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2150 to 2233, and the price of Northwest discounted to the futures price increased from 2400 to 2450 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the Northwest discounted to the futures price increased by 30, and the domestic basis increased by 12 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 745, and the price of North China LL increased from 6300 to 6400. The price of the main futures contract increased from 6453 to 6579 [5]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of North China LL increased by 100, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 130 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5700 to 5770, and the price of East China PP decreased from 6095 to 6180 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 40, the price of East China PP decreased by 30, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 93 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2300, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased from 4580 to 4660 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased by 130 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the inland market has bottomed out, and the port market is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for significant inventory reduction is high MTO operation rate. Currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments, and short - term shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the change in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors, and if oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the upper limit of methanol prices [2]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas market in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion situation and US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production rate is stable. The production of drawn products is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, pay attention to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Monitor exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2145 to 2233, with a daily change of 23 on January 5. The price of South China spot increased from 2120 to 2205, with a daily change of 12 on January 5. Other regional prices also showed certain changes [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The inland market has bottomed out, and the port market is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, MTO profit restricts the upside of methanol. Monitor Venezuelan shipments and oil price changes [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of华东LD increased from 8175 to 8700, with a daily change of 375 on January 5. Other prices also had corresponding changes. The主力期货 price decreased from 6465 to 6449, with a daily change of - 23 on January 5 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is neutral. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new plant commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 5690 to 5730, with a daily change of 50 on January 5. The主力期货 price decreased from 6292 to 6330, with a daily change of - 18 on January 5 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Monitor exports and PDH plant maintenance [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4520 to 4530, with a daily change of - 70 on January 5. The基差(高端交割品) increased from - 20 to - 250, with a daily change of 10 on January 5 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Monitor exports, coal prices, etc. [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overseas market remains tight with an expected increase in the January CP official price. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is relatively high, and the basis is relatively low, and the driving force needs to be awaited. The profits of PDH are deteriorating, and the maintenance situation in January needs to be observed [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis - **Daily Price Changes**: On Tuesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4372 (-8), in Shandong was 4300 (-20), and in South China was 4510 (+0). The price of ether post - carbon four was 4440 (+10). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. At night, the basis was 119 (+155), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 136 (+12), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -167 (+19). As of 9 p.m., FEI was 527.39, a decrease of 4 US dollars. The January CP official price increased more than expected, with propane and butane at 525/520 US dollars per ton respectively [1] - **Weekly Situation**: The domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG (-110). The East China price was 4384 (-10), and the South China price was 4510 (+10). The overseas EI fluctuated, MB weakened, and CP strengthened. According to the first - round recommended values of January CP, propane and butane were 505/495 (+10/+10) respectively. The domestic and foreign prices strengthened slightly. PG - CP reached 100 (+1.86), PG - FEI reached 89 (+4.86), FEI - MB reached 185.6 (+10.6), and FEI - CP reached 11 [1] Premium and Freight - The East China propane arrival premium was 4 (+1). The AFEI, Middle East, and US propane OB premiums were 18.75 (+5.75), 50 (-1), and 43 (+0) respectively. The freight increased slightly. The FEL - MORI price difference was -14 (a month - on - month increase of 4) [1] Inventory and Utilization Rate - The arrival rate of ships was 54.83%, and the port inventory decreased by 14.3%. The refinery's commercial volume increased by 1.18%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.41%. The PDH utilization rate was 76.36% (+1.36 pct) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending December 25, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 750,312 tons, in line with market expectations [1] - A private exporter reported a sale of 10,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume as of the week ending December 25, 2025, was 750,312 tons, with the previous market forecast ranging from 750,000 - 1,200,000 tons. The volume in the previous week was revised to 929,365 tons from an initial value of 870,199 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland that week was 135,417 tons, accounting for 18.05% of the total. As of the week ending December 26, 2024, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,643,692 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative U.S. soybean export inspection volume is 15,396,334 tons, compared with 28,671,623 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - A private exporter reported a sale of 10,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products from December 23 - 29, 2025, are presented in a table, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2] Protein Meal Basis - Not provided in the given content Fatty Basis - Not provided in the given content Fatty Oil Futures Spread - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - The price of plastics is under pressure due to abundant supply. The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply still suppresses prices. The overall market situation is not optimistic, with a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival [5]. - The strategy suggests a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now [5]. Polypropylene Part - Polypropylene prices are under pressure in the off - season. The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The market is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with an unfavorable supply - demand situation [95]. - Similar to plastics, the strategy recommends a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are also not recommended currently [97]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened significantly as the spot price increases less than the futures price. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened to - 31, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level [5]. - The import window has improved, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level within the year. The non - standard price spread shows that the HD film supply is tight, and the LD has weakened recently [29][32]. Supply - New capacity has been concentratedly put into operation from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. The supply is expected to remain abundant, with a slight decline in the short term and an increase in the future [47]. - The overall inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream. The subsequent supply increase and weak downstream confidence may lead to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Demand & Inventory - The demand for downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films has entered a phased off - season. The overall downstream demand shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease [5]. - The inventory transfer to the middle - stream is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened as the futures price rebounds, and the warehouse receipts have increased again. The cross - period spread is fluctuating [97]. - The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited growth. The non - standard price spread of the drawing material has slightly narrowed [112][119]. Supply - New capacity has been put into operation on a large scale from the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, with an effective capacity growth rate of 12.7%. The supply is expected to be abundant, but there may be a marginal reduction in supply if some PDH devices stop production in January [140]. - The inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream, and the overall inventory is higher than the same period last year [97]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders of some industries such as plastic weaving and pipes have seasonally weakened. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend [96]. - The inventory removal is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a high inventory level [97].