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《农产品》日报-20250916
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and reach 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound and may follow the Malaysian trend to rise later, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to drop by 5.8% compared to July. In China, downstream consumption has increased, but overall demand is down year - on - year, and soybean supply is sufficient, resulting in a situation of both long and short factors. Currently, soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price fluctuates narrowly [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, it will remain weak, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar futures may stabilize around 5,500 due to the raw sugar rebound, but the rebound space is limited, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 2.4 Cotton Industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. 2.5 Egg Industry - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [9]. 2.6 Meal Industry - The supply - weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues to suppress the price. Brazilian premiums are strong, providing cost support for the domestic market. In China, concerns about future supply are alleviated, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level. The cost support for domestic meals is strong, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,050 - 3,150 [11]. 2.7 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is under pressure due to increased slaughter, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. After a short - term rebound, there may be further downside potential, and both futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price of Y2601 increased by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price of P2601 increased by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis of P2601 decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price of Ol601 increased by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis of Ol601 decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; palm oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.2.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 5 yuan/ton, a 135.71% decline [2]. 3.2.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 42 yuan/ton, an 82.61% decline [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 9 yuan to 5,517 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 23 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 2,891 lots to 381,607 lots, a 0.75% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 274 lots to 11,325 lots, a 2.36% decline [6]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis decreased by 9 yuan to 364 yuan/ton, a 2.41% decline; the Kunming basis decreased by 9 yuan to 329 yuan/ton, a 2.66% decline [6]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, a 12.03% increase; sales increased by 114 million tons to 1,000 million tons, a 12.87% increase; the national sales ratio increased by 0.66 percentage points to 89.60%; the industrial inventory increased by 5.78 million tons to 116 million tons, a 5.24% increase [6]. 3.4 Cotton Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 22 yuan to 13,882 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase; the 5 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 35 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,295 lots, a 1.60% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 118 lots to 4,899 lots, a 2.35% decline [7]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 15 yuan to 15,167 yuan/ton; the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1 yuan to 15,249 yuan/ton; the FC Index:M: 1% increased by 17 yuan to 13,388 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, an 18.6% decline; industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a 3.5% decline; imports increased by 2 million tons to 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase [7]. 3.5 Egg Industry - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.39% increase; the futures price of the egg 10 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,126 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.41% increase; the basis increased by 19 yuan to 515 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.81% increase [9]. 3.6 Meal Industry 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline; the basis increased by 17 yuan to - 12 yuan/ton, a 58.62% increase [11]. 3.6.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline; the basis increased by 23 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, a 31.94% increase [11]. 3.7 Pig Industry 3.7.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main pig contract increased by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 470 yuan/ton, an 8.05% decline; the main contract's open interest increased by 2,009 lots to 81,062 lots, a 2.54% increase [13]. 3.7.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it decreased by 250 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it decreased by 300 yuan to 13,050 yuan/ton; in Liaoning, it decreased by 200 yuan to 12,900 yuan/ton [13].
《农产品》日报-20250915
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 07:59
1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, corn, pigs, and meal products, dated September 15, 2025 [1][4][5][8][11][14][17] 2. Industry - Specific Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - CBOT soybean oil may fall again due to seasonal decline in consumption and potential high - throughput of factories. The basis of spot soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations. Malaysian palm oil futures are in a consolidation phase, facing potential downward pressure from increasing production and weak export data. The Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit and face a risk of downward break - through. The September 13 USDA report on soybeans is neutral to bearish, and the industrial demand for US soybean oil decreases after summer [1] Sugar - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - side oscillation between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar has high inventory pressure, and the short - term futures may stabilize around 5500, but the rebound space is limited. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [4] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range. As new cotton is expected to be listed in the future, prices may face downward pressure [5] Eggs - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [8][9] Corn - In the short term, the corn market will gradually shift to a supply - demand loosening situation, with the futures oscillating weakly. In the medium term, the bearish situation remains, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is advisable [11] Pigs - The spot pig prices have limited room for further decline due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and secondary fattening. However, considering the supply recovery and uncertain demand, the prices may continue to bottom - out after a short - term rebound [15] Meal Products - The global soybean supply - demand situation has some changes, with US soybean production increasing and the global stocks - to - use ratio slightly decreasing. In China, the concern about future supply is alleviated, and the spot market is loose. However, due to cost support, the decline space of domestic meal products is limited [17] 4. Industry - Specific Summaries Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8610 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.82%) from September 11. The Y2601 futures price is 8018 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 0.10%). The basis of Y2601 is 592 yuan, up 78 yuan (15.18%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9320 yuan, up 100 yuan (1.08%). The P2601 futures price is 9062 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 0.57%). The basis of P2601 is 258 yuan, up 152 yuan (143.40%). The September import cost in Guangzhou Port is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan (0.41%), and the import profit is - 618 yuan, down 91 yuan (- 17.31%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan, up 100 yuan (1.01%). The OI601 futures price is 9547 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.53%) [1] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5540 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 0.29%); Sugar 2605 is 5517 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 0.13%); ICE raw sugar is 15.81 cents per pound, up 0.01 cent (0.06%). The 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 28.13%) [4] - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan, unchanged; in Kunming is 5855 yuan, up 5 yuan (0.09%). The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.45%); outside the quota is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.47%) [4] - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); sales are 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons (12.87%). The cumulative sales ratio in the country is 89.60%, up 0.66 percentage points (0.74%); in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62 percentage points (0.70%) [4] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13820 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.18%); Cotton 2601 is 13860 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.18%); ICE US cotton is 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.02 cent (0.03%). The 5 - 1 spread is - 40 yuan, unchanged [5] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15182 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.03%); CC Index 3128B is 15248 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.01%); FC Index M 1% is 13371 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.13%) [5] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons (- 18.6%); industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons (- 3.5%). The import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons (66.7%) [5] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3040 yuan per 500KG, down 4 yuan (- 0.13%); Egg 10 contract is 3023 yuan per 500KG, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%). The 11 - 10 spread is 17 yuan, up 16 yuan (1600.00%) [8] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 3.54 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan (1.92%); the basis is 496 yuan per 500KG, up 70 yuan (16.56%) [8] - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 2.60 yuan per chick, down 0.40 yuan (- 13.33%); the price of culled chickens is 4.61 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.22%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07 (2.88%); the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan per chick, up 4.71 yuan (20.84%) [8] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2197 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.23%); the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2310 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 113 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.63%); the 11 - 3 spread is 14 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 12.50%) [11] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2474 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 0.12%); the Changchun spot price is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price is 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 86 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.61%); the 11 - 3 spread is - 23 yuan, up 4 yuan (14.81%) [11] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of Live Pig 2511 is 13255 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.49%); Live Pig 2601 is 13690 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%). The 11 - 1 spread is - 435 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 6.10%) [15] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan is 13450 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong is 13550 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan is 13350 yuan, unchanged; in Liaoning is 13100 yuan, unchanged; in Guangdong is 14390 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Hunan is 13210 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei is 13400 yuan, unchanged [15] - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 148973, up 965 (0.65%); the weekly white - strip price is 0.00 yuan, down 20.1 yuan (- 100.00%); the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg (0.07%); the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan, down 35.8 yuan (- 68.02%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan (- 28.27%); the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) [15] Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 3050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.66%); M2601 futures price is 3079 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis of M2601 is - 29 yuan, up 29 yuan (50.00%). The import crushing profit for US Gulf shipments is not given; for Brazilian November shipments is 60, down 18 (- 30.0%) [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2650 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.76%); RM2601 futures price is 2531 yuan, down 36 yuan (- 1.40%); the basis of RM2601 is 119, up 56 (88.89%). The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments is 815, down 66 (- 7.49%) [17] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3959 yuan, up 14 yuan (0.35%); the basis is 21, down 14 (- 40.00%). The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, up 100 yuan (2.63%); the futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3759 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.11%); the basis is 141, up 96 (213.33%) [17] - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 259, down 20 (- 7.17%); the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 125, down 22 (- 14.97%); the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.82, up 0.004 (0.16%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.70, up 0.003 (0.12%); the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 400, unchanged; the 2601 spread is 548, up 27 (5.18%) [17]
广发期货:《农产品》日报-20250911
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:54
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: MPOB report shows inventory growth to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data brings negative pressure. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. Domestically, it will first consider the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil weakens, Dalian palm oil may follow a downward - fluctuating trend [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the US soybean yield forecast, but the high - level of US soybean's excellent rate still maintains the expectation of a good harvest. The upcoming concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. Domestically, although the demand season is coming, the current oversupply of soybeans will keep the basis quotation in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. Meal Products - The high excellent rate of US soybeans suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. The strong supply and weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues. The relatively high Brazilian basis provides support for domestic costs. Recently, the domestic concern about future supply has eased, and the spot is loose. The increase in oil mills' soybean meal inventory and the lack of terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppress the basis. However, the cost support is strong, and the decline space of domestic meal products is limited [3]. Pig Industry - The slaughter of the breeding end is stabilizing, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. The entry of secondary fattening in some areas provides support for the spot. The spot pressure has been gradually realized, and the price has fallen to a low - level range with limited further decline space. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market rebounded today due to the policy boost, but there is still potential for decline later, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn Industry - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are still dull, and the new season's corn has not been listed in large quantities, so the price remains firm. In North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price continues to run weakly. As corn is transitioning to the new season, the tight inventory of old - season corn and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, along with the expected increase in production and the decrease in planting costs, put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure, maintaining a weak pattern in the medium - term [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of August increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in a large supply pressure on raw sugar and a price drop below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the tax - included ethanol price, the room for the future increase of the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. The new sugar will be on the market in less than a month, and the pre - sale price is lower than the current market price. The futures price is weak, and the market sentiment is weak. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton Industry - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods of cotton for wadding and spinning are different, and the new cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short - term, the upward and downward space of domestic cotton prices may be limited, and the downstream has little confidence in the traditional peak season. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Egg Industry - The increase in traders' purchases in recent days may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market will suppress the increase of the egg price. After the second and third batches of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may fade, and the risk of the egg price decline increases. The egg price may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 8,570 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 192 yuan [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.59% to 9,270 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 34 yuan [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% to 9,910 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI601 decreased by 43 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean oil Y2601 increased by 92 yuan to 308 yuan [1]. - The basis of palm oil P2601 decreased by 116 yuan to - 176 yuan [1]. - The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 40 yuan to 6 yuan, a decrease of 86.96% [1]. - The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 50 yuan to - 700 yuan, an increase of 6.67% [1]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2509 increased by 149 yuan to 1,675 yuan, an increase of 9.76% [1]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 3,066 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,533 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean meal M2601 increased by 9 yuan to - 36 yuan [3]. - The basis of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 27 yuan to 97 yuan [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 7 yuan to 268 yuan, a decrease of 2.55% [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 14 yuan to 128 yuan, a decrease of 9.86% [3]. - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 400 yuan, a decrease of 2.44% [3]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 85 yuan to - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.95% [6]. - The spot price in Henan remained unchanged at 13,550 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 13,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 879 to 147,686, a decrease of 0.59% [6]. - The weekly white - striped pork price increased by 0.1 yuan to 20.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25% [6]. - The self - breeding profit increased by 20.4 yuan to 53 yuan/head, an increase of 63.31% [6]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% [8]. - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan to 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% [8]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The basis increased by 7 yuan to 113 yuan, an increase of 6.60% [8]. - The 11 - 3 spread of corn increased by 1 yuan to 11 yuan, an increase of 10.00% [8]. - The long - distance trade profit remained unchanged at 44 yuan [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [12]. - The spot price in Kunming increased by 15 yuan to 5,835 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The national cumulative sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [12]. - The national cumulative sugar sales increased by 130 million tons to 955 million tons, an increase of 15.76% [12]. - The national industrial inventory decreased by 11.3 million tons to 96.89 million tons, a decrease of 10.44% [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [13]. - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 43 yuan to 15,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [13]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, a decrease of 18.6% [13]. - The industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% [13]. - The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 9.86 million tons to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract decreased by 63 yuan to 3,020 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.04% [15]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.03 yuan to 3.44 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.79% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged at 3.00 yuan/feather [15]. - The culled - hen price decreased by 0.21 yuan to 4.62 yuan/jin, a decrease of 4.35% [15]. - The egg - feed ratio increased by 0.07 to 2.50, an increase of 2.88% [15].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250902
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:25
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to return to 4500 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may gradually rise after the adjustment, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. US soybean oil has a downward space in the short term, while domestic soybean oil may see a decrease in inventory and a rise in the spot basis in the future [1]. Corn Industry - The short - term corn futures are in a rebound and consolidation stage, and the medium - term situation remains weak. It is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range. The domestic sugar price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly around 5500 - 5700 [7]. Cotton Industry - The cotton price center has risen, but there is no obvious upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [8]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stabilizing with slight fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of the 11 and 01 contracts [9]. Meal Industry - The domestic meal prices have limited downward space. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range [11]. Egg Industry - Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 29, Y2601 decreased by 0.52%, and the palm oil futures price also showed certain fluctuations. The price of soybean oil and palm oil in the spot market also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production growth is lower than export growth, and the market expects limited inventory growth at the end of August. The US biodiesel policy for soybean oil is unclear, and the domestic demand for soybean oil is improving [1]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of corn 2511 increased by 0.27%, and the price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.32%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Northeast corn traders have insufficient inventory, but there is supplementary auction grain. Spring corn in North China is gradually on the market, and the new - season corn has a large expected increase in production. The demand side has relatively sufficient inventory and weak purchasing enthusiasm [2]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.04%, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.97%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, but the Brazilian sugar production may be revised down. The 09 contract is affected by beet warehouse receipts, and the demand side is relatively stable during the double festivals [7]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.73%, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of new cotton is yet to be verified, the inventory is relatively tight before the new cotton is on the market, the demand has improved marginally since August, but the downstream improvement is not obvious [8]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of live pigs 2511 decreased by 0.26%, and the price of live pigs 2601 decreased by 0.50%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of pigs is stabilizing, the slaughter volume has increased, and the market demand is expected to improve with the approach of the school season and cooler weather, but there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals [9]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of soybean meal M2601 increased by 0.53%, and the price of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices, spreads, and crushing margins also changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, the Sino - US negotiation has no substantial progress, and the domestic supply concern has eased [11]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of egg 09 contract increased by 0.28%, and the price of egg 10 contract increased by 0.31%. The spot prices, spreads, and related indicators also changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in September may decrease, and the demand will weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival [15].
棉价延续震荡,纸浆弱势不改
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 07:47
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The USDA in August significantly adjusted global cotton production and ending stocks, shifting the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the production adjustments for some countries may not be sufficient, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, and the new cotton is expected to increase in production. The quota policy has a limited impact on the market [2]. - Sugar: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. But Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation. In China, the import volume is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [5][6]. - Pulp: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased. There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,235 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton [1]. - Market Information: As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 60.3%, 11.4 percentage points higher than the previous week but 15.8% slower than the same period last year. As of August 25, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.8 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decline [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA adjusted the global cotton balance sheet, but the production adjustment for some countries may not be in place, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices [2]. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices. The sliding - scale quota policy has limited impact on the market. The new cotton is expected to increase in production, and there will be hedging pressure during the new cotton listing period [2]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the peak - season demand. If the demand improves, cotton prices may be strong before the new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (-0.98%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - Market Information: Conab predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugarcane production would be 668.8 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The harvest area increased by 1%, but the yield per unit decreased by 2.1% [4]. Market Analysis - International: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, so raw sugar prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota sugar imports has been high for months, and the import volume in July increased significantly. The import supply in August - September is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Be neutral. The negative impact of import expectations has been reflected in the market. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to low inventory and late - growing sugarcane, there may be a price increase in the fourth quarter [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,070 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.29%) from the previous day [7]. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Information: The import wood pulp spot market had individual price fluctuations. The trading volume of imported softwood pulp did not improve significantly, and the cost was under pressure. Some prices of imported hardwood pulp increased, while the supply and demand of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were weak [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8]. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is increasing. The domestic demand is weak, the finished paper inventory is high, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9].
银河期货铁矿石日报-20250820
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 11:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly offers data on iron ore futures, spot prices, spreads, and import profits. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 771.0 to 769.0, a drop of 2.0; DCE05 fell from 749.5 to 747.0, a decline of 2.5; DCE09 declined from 789.0 to 786.0, a decrease of 3.0 [2] - I01 - I05 increased from 21.5 to 22.0, a rise of 0.5; I05 - I09 increased from -39.5 to -39.0, a rise of 0.5; I09 - I01 decreased from 18.0 to 17.0, a drop of 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder decreased from 770 to 768, a drop of 2; Newman powder decreased from 764 to 763, a decline of 1; Mac powder decreased from 761 to 756, a decrease of 5 [2] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder with a price of 809 after deducting the 8 yuan/ton warehouse - out fee [2] Spot Price Spreads - The spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 105 to 109, a rise of 4; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder decreased from 21 to 20, a decline of 1; Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder increased from 132 to 134, a rise of 2 [2] Import Profits - Carajás fines' import profit increased from -26 to -23, a rise of 3; Newman powder's import profit remained at 0; PB powder's import profit decreased from -5 to -6, a drop of 1 [2] Index Prices - The Platts Iron Ore 62% price decreased from 101.1 to 100.8, a drop of 0.3; the Platts Iron Ore 65% price decreased from 118.6 to 118.3, a decline of 0.3; the Platts Iron Ore 58% price decreased from 89.2 to 88.8, a decrease of 0.4 [2][4] 内外盘美金价差 - SGX主力 - DCE01 decreased from 7.7 to 7.5, a drop of 0.2; SGX主力 - DCE05 decreased from 10.4 to 10.2, a decline of 0.3; SGX主力 - DCE09 decreased from 5.4 to 5.2, a decrease of 0.2 [2][4]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].
《农产品》日报-20250813
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:03
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].
棉系数据日报-20250808
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 07:38
Report Summary Core View - In the context of the expected new crop harvest and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August, multiple policies and industry events are in the window period. Domestic policy - related meeting contents, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, the realization of new cotton harvest, whether the import sliding - scale duty quota will be increased and the increase amount have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of import sliding - scale duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4] Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on August 7 was 13835, down 15 (-0.11%) from August 6; CF09 was 13670, down 20 (-0.15%); CF09 - 01 was - 165, down 5 from August 6 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on August 7, the price was 15089, up 6 (0.04%); in Henan it was 15220, up 15 (0.10%); in Shandong it was 15169, up 20 (0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1419, up 26 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic cotton yarn futures CY on August 7 was 19705, down 5 (-0.03%); domestic cotton yarn spot C32S price index was 20620, down 20 (-0.10%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT (USD/ pound) on August 7 was 67, unchanged (0.00%); the arrival price was 76.50, down 0.5 (-0.65%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13480, down 87 (-0.64%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14282, down 53 (-0.37%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5870, up 10; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 802, up 34; the spot internal - external spread was 1689, up 107 [3][4]
《农产品》日报-20250807
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].