高盛称，白银与黄金价格通常联动。这一历史关系使得金银比（黄金价格/白银价格）大多维持在45至 80的宽阔区间。但自2022年以来，伴随央行购金激增，为黄金构筑了坚实的价格支撑，即便私人投资缺 席，金价仍被推高；反观白银，由于缺乏央行的结构性买盘支撑，其价格走势滞后。 报告显示，当前，随着美联储启动降息且ETF资金持续回流，白银重获市场关注。由于白银市场规模较 黄金约小九成、流动性相对不足，此类资金流会对其价格产生剧烈影响，进而放大价格波动幅度。 高盛预计，此次白银流动性紧缩仅为暂时现象，但它确实放大了白银自8月26日以来高达35%的涨势。 年初，由于市场担忧美国可能加征关税，大量白银从全球实物白银交易中心伦敦流向美国，导致伦敦库 存降至低位。而当近期白银ETF投资需求（需以实物白银支撑）激增，吸收了更多白银后，其短期可得 性急剧下降，进而推高了租赁利率，并引爆价格。这一失衡局面终将得以修正，因为目前伦敦市场以更 高的价格正吸引白银从美国等地回流，流动性预计将逐步恢复。 美东时间10月12日晚间，高盛发布报告称，尽管伦敦现货白银上周五首次收于50美元/盎司上方，但其 中期走势仍趋向进一步上涨。这主要源于白银与黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen significant price increases, with gold prices rising 47% this year, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979. Silver has outperformed gold, with a price increase of over 62% [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 2, the first trading day after the National Day holiday in Hong Kong, gold and silver stocks surged, with several stocks, including China Silver Group, rising over 10%, and China Silver Group specifically increasing by 30% to reach a nearly four-year high [1]. - Year-to-date performance shows that China Silver Group has increased by 192.37%, while Tongguan Gold has surged by 552.72% [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts for gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 by the end of 2026, indicating further upward potential for gold prices [3]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the price relationship between gold and silver, currently stands at approximately 80:1, suggesting that silver may still have room for price increases [8][24]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has experienced a supply-demand gap for five consecutive years, with an estimated shortfall of about 4,000 tons in 2025 [18]. - Industrial demand for silver is projected to continue growing, with its share of total demand expected to reach 58% by 2024 [20]. Group 4: Economic Context - The differing economic roles of gold and silver lead to divergent price movements under various economic conditions. Gold primarily serves as a safe-haven asset, while silver has both safe-haven and industrial attributes, which can drive its price higher during economic recoveries [13][14]. - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80:1, silver is often undervalued relative to gold, presenting potential investment opportunities [22].

近期，黄金价格涨势凶猛，白银也乘胜追击，以惊艳表现吸引市场目光。 比黄金还"闪" 白银年内涨超70% 北京时间10月9日，伦敦现货白银突破50美元/盎司大关，一度站上51美元高位，创历史新高，但随后有所回调。10日下午，现货白银再次上攻，价格一度 重回51美元/盎司关口上方。 今年以来，现货白银累计涨超70%。分析人士向上证报记者表示，现货白银供应趋紧以及国际宏观经济的影响，或是此番价格上涨的主要动能。 洪灏在其9月研报中表示，若美元进一步贬值，金价涨势或远超市场预期。各国央行购金与避险需求将形成有力支撑，白银则兼具工业属性与金融属性， 有望再现布雷顿森林体系瓦解后的辉煌涨势。 金银比下行 短期内白银或继续优于黄金 随着避险情绪的升温，今年以来，现货黄金涨超50%，现货白银则表现更优，累计涨幅超70%。仅9月，现货白银就大涨超17%。 五矿期货贵金属研究员钟俊轩接受记者采访时表示，本轮白银价格上涨的核心因素在于国际宏观经济和白银现货趋紧的双轮驱动。宏观层面，美元信用受 挫与美联储降息周期构成主要推动力。 "相较于黄金，白银更受益于美联储宽松的货币政策，因而近期出现偏强的上涨格局。"钟俊轩表示，美联储于9月议息 ...

Core Insights - Silver has reached a historic milestone, breaking the $50 per ounce mark for the first time on October 9, with a significant increase of over 4% [1][3] - The year-to-date increase in spot silver prices has reached 75%, outperforming gold, which has risen by 54% [7] - The decline in the gold-silver ratio indicates a stronger performance of silver compared to gold, with the ratio dropping from over 85 to 81 [7] Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of tight supply and increasing industrial demand, rather than solely monetary easing [3] - Global silver supply has experienced a deficit for five consecutive years, leading to declining inventories [3] - Industrial consumption of silver is robust, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors [3][4] Investment Trends - There has been a significant inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reflecting strong investor interest [4] - UBS has indicated that silver remains attractive relative to gold, suggesting that price corrections in silver could be seen as opportunities to increase exposure [7] - Historical trends show that a gold-silver ratio below 80 often signals a strong cycle for silver prices [7] Future Outlook - Analysts expect that ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts will continue to weaken the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting precious metal prices [8] - Short-term projections indicate that precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, although market volatility is expected to increase [8]

Core Insights - Silver has reached a historic milestone, breaking the $50 per ounce mark for the first time on October 9, with a significant increase of over 4% [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in spot silver prices has reached 75%, outperforming gold, which has risen by 54% [5] - The decline in the gold-silver ratio indicates a stronger performance of silver compared to gold, with the ratio dropping from over 85 to 81 [5] Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of fundamental supply-demand tightness and increased industrial demand, rather than solely monetary easing [2] - Global silver supply has experienced a deficit for five consecutive years, leading to declining inventories [2] - Industrial consumption of silver is robust, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors [2][3] Investment Trends - There has been a significant inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reflecting strong investor interest [3] - Analysts suggest that silver remains attractive relative to gold, with UBS predicting a decrease in the gold-silver ratio from above 80 to 76 [5] - Historical trends indicate that a gold-silver ratio below 80 often signals a strong cycle for silver prices [5] Future Outlook - Continued expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to weaken the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which would support precious metal prices [6] - Short-term projections suggest that precious metal prices will remain strong, although market volatility is expected to increase [6]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has reached a historic milestone by surpassing $50 per ounce for the first time, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, alongside the bullish trend in gold [1][2]. Price Movement - On October 9, spot silver prices surged over 4%, breaking the $50 mark and reaching a high of $51.22 per ounce, while silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a record high of 11,490 yuan per ton [1][2]. - Year-to-date, spot silver has increased by 75%, outperforming gold, which has risen by 54% [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply has faced a deficit for five consecutive years, leading to declining inventories [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is on the rise, particularly from sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors [2][3]. Investment Trends - There has been a significant inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating strong investor interest [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 85 to 81, suggesting a growing preference for silver among investors [5][6]. Market Sentiment - Analysts note that silver's price volatility is greater than that of gold, often amplifying gold's movements during risk-on market conditions [4]. - UBS has indicated that silver remains attractive relative to gold, with expectations for the gold-silver ratio to decline further [6].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, reaching over $50 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 73%, outperforming gold [1][4]. Price Movement - As of October 8, silver prices exceeded $49 per ounce, marking a more than 20% increase in just over a month [4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract reached 11,169 yuan per kilogram, with an intraday high of 11,309 yuan per kilogram, showing a continuous five-month increase [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a persistent global supply shortage and increased industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector [6]. - The World Silver Association projects a 2% increase in total silver supply and a 1% decrease in total demand by 2025, narrowing the global silver supply gap to 117.6 million ounces [6]. Economic Context - Current economic conditions, including rising inflation and a resilient U.S. economy, are favorable for silver, enhancing its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal [7]. - The gold-silver ratio is currently around 82 in the domestic market and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating that silver may still be undervalued [7]. Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly entering the silver market through various channels, including ETFs and futures contracts, with global silver ETF holdings rising significantly [8][9]. - Retail investors are also showing heightened interest in silver, particularly in regions like Europe and India, contributing to increased market volatility [8]. Industrial Demand - The industrial consumption of silver is expected to remain strong, with an estimated 677.4 million ounces used in 2023, remaining stable compared to 2024 [13]. - The demand for silver in sectors such as electric vehicles, AI, semiconductors, and 5G technology is projected to increase significantly [13]. Market Outlook - Analysts have raised silver price forecasts, with Citigroup setting a target of $55 per ounce in the next three months, driven by strong demand and the influence of rising gold prices [13]. - The market is experiencing a mix of speculative interest and fundamental support, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking by futures investors [14].

白银凶猛！ 黄金大涨也带动了白银冲高。 今年以来白银现货价格最高达49.675美元/盎司（截至北京时间18点20分），相比2011年创下的49.84美 元/盎司的历史高点，仅一步之遥。 今年以来现货白银的涨幅已经超过70%，表现优于黄金。 白银月线五连涨 今年以来，避险情绪升温，贵金属行情呈现多点开花的局面，从黄金向白银、铂金、钯金等多品种扩 散。9月第一天现货白银就突破40美元/盎司，随后"势不可挡"，截至10月8日已经突破49美元/盎司，一 个多月的时间，涨幅超过20%。 与此同时，截至10月8日，上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至11169元/公斤，盘中最高触及11309 元/公斤，月线上已经连续上涨五个月。 首先是当前经济就业下行，通胀上行叠加流动性宽松的环境，对白银构成利好。其次，当前美国经济仍 有韧性，近期公布的美国经济数据更是相对偏强，使得预防式降息后经济可能触底反弹的预期走强，利 好白银的工业金属属性。两者共同作用下，银价出现较大幅度的上涨。 中国有色金属工业协会金银分会副秘书长、信息咨询部主任石和清在接受采访时表示，银价的上涨是多 重因素共振的结果。 金银比方面，当前内盘金银比约为82，外 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold showed strength during the National Day holiday, breaking through $4000. After the holiday, domestic gold is expected to open higher, and the upward trend is continued to be bullish [3]. - Silver also followed the upward trend during the holiday, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. After the holiday, silver is also expected to open higher, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen and may outperform gold [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$23.56 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$28.9 per ounce [10]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.154 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -$0.435 per ounce [13]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - For gold, this week, the spot - futures price spread was -$3 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - For silver, this week, the spot - futures price spread was -$61 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [18]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Price Spread - For gold, this week, the inter - month price spread was $7.1 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - For silver, this week, the inter - month price spread was $65 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - The total cost of gold's cross - month positive arbitrage (buying TD and selling SHFE gold) was $5.25 per gram; for buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract, it was $15.06 per gram [30][31]. - The total cost of silver's cross - month positive arbitrage (buying TD and selling SHFE silver) was $74.09 per kilogram; for buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract, it was $179.09 per kilogram [32][33]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction of Spot Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, for gold on the SGE, the deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the same was true for silver [34]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.1 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 40.14% [36]. - COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.13 million ounces to 530.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio decreased to 35.6% [38]. - Gold futures inventory increased by 11,715 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 43.24 tons to 1,192 tons [40]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions - This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both increased slightly [42]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 1.42 tons [48]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 289 tons [50]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 83.6 last week to 82.2 [53]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was -0.15%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 14.97% [55]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.3 Non - farm Employment Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.6 Fed Rate - cut Probability - The table shows the Fed's rate - cut probabilities at different meeting times and the corresponding implied interest rate changes [77].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in international gold and silver prices during the National Day holiday, with gold reaching a new historical high and silver also hitting a multi-year peak, driven by factors such as U.S. interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3][4]. Price Movements - On October 2, spot silver briefly surpassed $48 per ounce, marking a new high since 2011, while spot gold soared to $3896 per ounce, nearing the $3900 mark [1][3]. - Following these peaks, both gold and silver experienced a sharp decline, with silver dropping below $46 [1]. Yearly Performance - Gold prices have increased by 48% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979, while silver has outperformed gold with a 65% increase this year [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The current gold-to-silver ratio is approximately 81:1, indicating that silver is relatively undervalued compared to gold, which has attracted bullish sentiment towards silver [1][12]. - Silver's market dynamics are characterized by decreasing inventories and rising speculative demand, with LBMA silver inventories down by about 10,000 tons compared to peak levels [9][11]. Speculative Demand - Speculative long positions in COMEX silver have risen from 30,000 contracts in May to approximately 38,000 contracts by September 23, reflecting increased market optimism [10]. - Limited silver inventories may struggle to meet the growing speculative demand, suggesting potential short-term supply shortages if the bullish trend continues [11]. Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has expressed a positive outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4300 by the end of 2026, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs [14][16]. - The World Gold Council reported a rebound in global gold ETF demand to 587.8 tons this year, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against economic uncertainties [16].