Market Overview - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 national ports is 141.66 million tons, a decrease of 726,200 tons month-on-month [1] - The average daily dispatch volume is 3.24 million tons, an increase of 86,800 tons [1] - The number of vessels in port is 83, an increase of 4 [1] Trading Activity - On May 15, the total iron ore transaction at major national ports was 1.007 million tons, a decrease of 18.33% month-on-month [2] - The forward spot transaction was 1.56 million tons on the same day [2] - Shipping costs from Western Australia to China are $7.38 per ton, an increase of $0.03 per ton; from Brazil to China, the cost is $18.3 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, global shipping volume has slightly decreased, with Australian port repairs reducing, leading to a slight recovery in shipping volume, while Brazilian shipping volume has significantly decreased [3] - The demand side shows one new blast furnace resuming production and four undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in pig iron production by 8,700 tons to 2.4477 million tons [3] - Current iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 147.47 million tons, a decrease of 177,200 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 8.961 million tons [3] Future Outlook - According to Shenyin Wanguo Futures, the raw material supply is expected to remain weak, but there is still room for pig iron production to increase, supported by steel mill profits and strong resumption momentum [4] - Recent global iron ore shipments have decreased, mainly due to disruptions in Australian shipments, with rapid inventory depletion at ports [4] - Mid-term supply-demand imbalance pressure is significant, with expected growth in iron ore shipments in the second half of the year, while short-term lacks clear driving forces [4]

铁矿石需警惕利空因素与价格 下跌趋势形成自我强化 作者：曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 邮箱：caoyouming@sd-gold.com 2025年5月12日星期一 ——山金期货铁矿石专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 p 铁矿石期货价格已经跌至长期上行趋势线附近，如果期价继续下跌，很有可能形成向下的有效突破，将打 开下行空间。最近几个月价格下跌的过程中，持仓量不断增加。整体形势对多头很不利。 p 供应：随着南半球天气的好转，巴西和澳洲发运量已经回到正常的水平，且未来一段时间，发运量将继续 呈现季节性增加态势，国内到港量也将延续季节性增加的趋势，国内矿山的产量和库存在增加。 p 需求：目前样本钢厂铁水产量已经大幅高于去年同期，且高于去年的峰值水平。在整体需求预期偏弱的情 况下，如此高的铁水产量很难持续，预计今年铁水产量的峰值已经到来，后期下降的预期强烈，这意味着 今年铁矿石的需求高峰期已至，后市铁矿石需求回落概率大。另外，终端需求方面，上周钢材表观需求大 幅回落，今年的出口数据好于预期，但整体增幅在贸易战背景 ...