Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in iron ore production by major companies BHP and Rio Tinto in Q2 2025, raising questions about the future supply-demand dynamics in the market [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the rising production levels from these iron ore giants may lead to changes in market pricing and overall supply-demand balance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the decline in China's iron ore imports, which is attributed to reduced supply from Australia and a decrease in global demand [1] Group 2 - China's iron ore import volume has decreased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The reduction in Australian supply is a significant factor affecting the iron ore market [1] - The article raises questions about the future direction of iron ore prices in light of these developments [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the recent rise in iron ore prices is based on a reasonable short-term fundamental recovery, but the upside potential is limited, and risks of chasing higher prices are accumulating [1] - The price of iron ore has rebounded by 4% to $96 per ton, driven by strong steel production and consumption in China, as well as a surge in imports from India, providing solid support in the $95-$100 range [2][3] - Global supply growth from major miners (Australia, Brazil, etc.) is forming a clear "supply ceiling," making it difficult for prices to sustainably break above $100 [1][3] Group 2 - China's steel demand remains robust, supported by stable manufacturing performance and strong steel exports, with daily iron ore consumption from 247 steel mills currently exceeding levels from July 2024 by 3% [2] - An important marginal change comes from India, where lower iron ore prices have led to a surge in imports, potentially impacting Goldman Sachs' 2026 price forecast [2] - The market's focus on supply-side reforms in China's steel industry has improved long-term profit prospects for steel mills, encouraging them to accept higher raw material prices [2] Group 3 - Global iron ore supply is steadily increasing, with significant growth in shipments from Australia (up 3% or 2.5 million tons), Brazil (up 3% or 900,000 tons), Canada (up 17% or 800,000 tons), and South Africa (up 8% or 300,000 tons) [4] - Despite strong short-term demand, the report indicates that the growth in global iron ore supply will act as a "ceiling" on price increases, with prices expected to face downward pressure in the fourth quarter, potentially falling to $90 per ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Core Viewpoints - The short - term domestic macro expectations have increased, the market may trade the strong reality, the demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak, and the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series fluctuated narrowly, the finished product end was relatively weak, and the demand continued the off - season characteristics. The supply of iron ore showed a seasonal increase, but the carbon element gave way to the iron element, the blast furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand was at a relatively high level, supporting the price. Since June, the basis of iron ore has returned from the spot to the futures, the spot price has dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures price has been relatively stable [2] Supply - This week, the overseas ore shipments increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the arrivals also increased significantly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that the shipments will continue to increase steadily, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly, with the support of the supply side weakening marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the delivery of non - mainstream mines [2] Demand - The domestic molten iron production ended five weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current steel mill profitability rate is high, the blast furnace profit is considerable, the short - process is in deep loss, and the iron - scrap difference has widened significantly. It is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be strong, and the high demand will support the price [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. The port inventory has decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly later, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term domestic macro - expectations have strengthened. The market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but with weak pressure. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - The equity and commodity markets were relatively strong yesterday. The market anticipated the easing of the Middle - East situation, and the sentiment improved. The black - series commodities rose collectively. The demand for finished products showed off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing better than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal increments, and the carbon element gave way to the iron element. The blast - furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand for iron ore remained relatively high, supporting the price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared to the end of May, while the futures price was relatively stable [3]. Supply - This week (Monday), the overseas ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia and Brazil reached the same - period high, and the arrival volume also increased significantly month - on - month. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Australian mines BHP and FMG are rushing to meet their fiscal - year targets. It is expected that the overseas ore shipments will continue to rise steadily. Due to the significant increase in shipments in late May, the actual domestic supply is expected to increase significantly, and the supporting strength of the supply side will weaken marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the investment in non - mainstream mines (Onslow project) [3]. Demand - The domestic molten iron output ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The average daily molten iron output this period was 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). Currently, the profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be resilient, and the high demand will support the price [3]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production at some steel mills. Steel mills mainly purchased on - demand due to the weak demand expectations. The port inventory decreased slightly this period due to the month - on - month decline in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly in the later period, but the pressure is weak due to the high demand [4]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is 695 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton, and the price range of the overseas FE07 contract is 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic macro expectation has increased, the market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range and run strongly. The later focus is on whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the policy increment of the Political Bureau meeting [3] 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Logic - Last week, the market mainly traded the escalation and easing of geopolitical tensions. The black series fluctuated narrowly, and the iron ore price followed the trend, with coking coal performing strongly. The demand for finished products continued the off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing stronger than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal incremental characteristics, and the carbon element continued to give way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit was relatively considerable, and the domestic iron ore demand remained at a relatively high level, supporting the iron ore price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures was relatively stable [3] Supply - Last Monday, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia to China and the total Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively high level, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. The arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month. Overall, June is the peak season for overseas iron ore shipments. It is expected that the overseas shipments will steadily recover, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly. The support from the supply side will weaken marginally. The later focus is on the investment of non - mainstream mines [3] Demand - The domestic hot metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average hot metal production is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). With the high profitability of steel mills and considerable blast furnace profits, combined with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term iron ore demand will be tough and support the price [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - going shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills has been rising month - on - month, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on demand. Due to the decrease in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3] Price - The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3]

Group 1 - The Platts iron ore price index has been on a downward trend, with average prices expected to decline from $120 per ton in 2022 and 2023 to $95 per ton by 2025 [2] - The average Platts iron ore price index from January 1 to June 15 this year was $101.36 per ton, with a peak of $109.5 per ton and a low of $94.6 per ton [2] - Futures market saw the main contract for iron ore reach a high of 844 yuan per ton on February 21, followed by a continuous decline [2] Group 2 - Major mining companies are releasing new capacities, but the actual production increase is limited, with Vale and Rio Tinto's combined production for 2024 expected to be 65.565 million tons, only a slight increase from 2023 [3] - In contrast, BHP and FMG's combined production for the 2024 fiscal year is projected to be 45.376 million tons, with a decrease in guidance for 2025 [3] - There is a significant divergence between the planned new capacity and production guidance among these companies, indicating potential supply issues [3] Group 3 - The main reason for the limited production increase is the decline in ore recovery rates, with a combined decline rate of 3.9% for the four major mining companies [4] - The estimated decline in ore recovery for Vale and Rio Tinto by 2025 is approximately 2.576 million tons [4] - Steel production cuts are anticipated, with an estimated reduction of around 30 million tons, but the execution timeline remains uncertain [4] Group 4 - Current steel consumption and high furnace iron output are declining, suggesting that iron ore prices may further decrease in the second half of the year [5] - Despite the anticipated price drop, factors such as remaining profits for high furnaces and the yet-to-be-implemented steel production cuts may limit the downside for prices [5] - The forecast for the Platts iron ore price index for the year is expected to fluctuate between $85 and $110 per ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [4] Core View of the Report - In the short term, macro disturbances weaken, trading focus returns to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand shows a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expected to expand. It is predicted that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking obvious upward drivers [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the trading focus of the black - series market is still dominated by the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand. The apparent demand of finished products shows off - season characteristics. Carbon elements continue to give benefits to iron elements. The profit of blast furnaces has not been significantly compressed due to the decline in finished product prices but has instead expanded. The valley - electricity of short - process steelmaking is in a large - scale loss, and the demand for iron ore remains resilient [3] Supply - The shipment of foreign mines increased slightly this period. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with a significant increase in Australian shipments, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. Coupled with the fiscal - year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current level of steel mill profitability is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend at a high level, but the downward slope will be relatively gentle, and high demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestic demand is still relatively high, and port inventories are continuously decreasing in the short term. As the arrival volume increases, it is expected that port inventories will accumulate slightly or remain relatively stable in the later stage. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the expectation of restocking is weak [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 铁矿石：需求预期羸弱，价格面临下行风险 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 702. 0 | -5.0 | -0.71% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 714. 423 | -1,831 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 卡粉 (65%) | 828. 0 | 833. 0 | -5. 0 | | | 进口矿 | PB (61.5%) | 735.0 | 740. 0 | -5.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 690. 0 | 695. 0 | -5.0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 620. 0 | 623. 0 | -3.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邮那 (66%) | 932. 0 | 932. 0 | 0. 0 | ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of continued price support due to declining inventory levels and high production rates in steel mills [2][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Supply - As of May 19, China's iron ore inventory at 47 ports totaled 146.2763 million tons, a decrease of 2.5825 million tons from the previous week [1] - The inventory at 45 ports was 140.5563 million tons, down by 2.8525 million tons [1] - During the period from May 12 to May 18, iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased to 13.763 million tons, up by 0.696 million tons [1] - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil during the same period reached 27.061 million tons, an increase of 2.836 million tons [1] - China's iron ore arrivals at 45 ports totaled 22.713 million tons, a decrease of 0.833 million tons [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Demand for iron ore remains robust due to improved profitability in steel mills and the ongoing production peak season, maintaining high levels of iron output [2] - The supply side has seen a significant rebound in overseas mining shipments, with a notable year-on-year increase, indicating a high supply level [2] - Continuous decline in port and steel mill iron ore inventories is alleviating inventory pressure [2] - Despite the current high iron output, there is a consensus that a decline in production is likely, leading to market uncertainty regarding the path of this decline [3] - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for iron ore shipments, suggesting potential increases in both shipment and arrival volumes [3]