以下为2025年11月以来三大交易所铜库存数据：（单位：吨） 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来三大交易所铜库存对比 | 日期 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/5 | 436, 853 | 162, 550 | 88, 905 | | 2025/12/4 | 435, 831 | 162, 825 | | | 2025/12/3 | 434, 283 | 162, 150 | | | 2025/12/2 | 431, 938 | 161, 800 | | | 2025/12/1 | 429, 346 | 159, 425 | | | 2025/11/28 | 418, 727 | 159, 425 | 97, 930 | | 2025/11/27 | | 157, 175 | | | 2025/11/26 | 417,666 | 156, 500 | | | 2025/11/25 | 415, 880 | 156, 575 | | | 2025/11/24 | 4 ...

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices showed a strong performance, opening at $11,422.5 per ton and currently trading at $11,490.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.35% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $11,507 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $11,420.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On December 4, LME copper futures opened at $11,440.0, peaked at $11,529.0, and closed at $11,434.0, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.13% [2] - As of December 4, registered copper warrants totaled 98,500 tons, with canceled warrants increasing by 7,450 tons, bringing total copper inventory to 162,825 tons, an increase of 675 tons [2] - The price index for recycled brass rods (Guixi) on December 4 was 57,790 yuan per ton, up by 550 yuan, or 0.96% [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.94, with an import loss of 1,620.75 yuan per ton, compared to a previous loss of 1,432.68 yuan per ton [2]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices continue to rise, opening at $10,846 per ton and currently at $10,860.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.39% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $10,873 per ton, while the lowest was $10,846 per ton [1] - On November 25, LME copper futures opened at $10,788.0, peaked at $10,949.0, and closed at $10,832.5, reflecting a 0.47% increase [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.98, with an import loss of -1,026.92 yuan per ton, compared to -857.94 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of November 25, LME registered copper warrants totaled 150,950 tons, with 5,625 tons canceled and an increase of 100 tons, while total copper inventory rose by 825 tons to 156,575 tons [2] - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, is significantly increasing its annual premium for refined copper to Chinese customers due to concerns over potential shortages [2]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a current price of $10,856 per ton, reflecting a 0.77% increase from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On November 25, LME copper futures opened at $10,788 per ton and reached a high of $10,860 per ton during the trading session [1] - On November 24, LME copper futures had an opening price of $10,770, a closing price of $10,781.5, with a slight increase of 0.03% [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.99, indicating an import loss of ¥857.94 per ton, which increased from a loss of ¥489.97 per ton on the previous trading day [1] - As of November 24, LME registered copper warrants totaled 150,225 tons, with canceled warrants at 5,525 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. Total copper inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons [1] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Freeport Indonesia's CEO Tony Wenas announced that due to ongoing recovery from a landslide incident, the company plans to produce 478,000 tons of cathode copper and 26 tons of gold by 2026, which is lower than the initial production targets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a current price of $10,834 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Market Overview - On November 14, LME copper futures opened at $10,881.5, reached a high of $10,922.0, a low of $10,755.0, and closed at $10,846.0, showing a slight decline of 0.12% [1] - The current trading range for LME copper futures is between $10,800 and $10,850.5 per ton [1] Group 2: Copper Market Data - As of November 14, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is 7.99, with an import loss of 809.1 yuan per ton, slightly improved from a loss of 826.78 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warrants total 126,075 tons, with 9,650 tons canceled, resulting in a net decrease of 475 tons. Total copper inventory stands at 135,725 tons, down by 450 tons [1] Group 3: Chinese Copper Concentrate Inventory - As of November 14, Mysteel reports that the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports is 740,000 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The inventory at seven major Chinese ports is reported at 530,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 32,000 tons [1]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices are experiencing high volatility, opening at $10,851 per ton and currently at $10,813 per ton, with an increase of 0.16% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $10,863.5 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $10,812 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 10, LME copper futures opened at $10,727.5, peaked at $10,903.0, and closed at $10,874.5, reflecting a 1.68% increase [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper shows a ratio of 8.02, with an import loss of -585.37 yuan per ton, compared to -495.82 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip and sheet enterprises is 64.97%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points month-on-month and a significant drop of 7.76 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The operating rates for large, medium, and small enterprises are 71.14%, 57.72%, and 55.9% respectively [2] - On November 10, LME registered copper warrants totaled 124,550 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,725 tons, an increase of 450 tons [2] - Copper inventory stands at 136,275 tons, with an increase of 375 tons [2]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in copper inventory, with the latest level at 134,625 tons, marking a three-month low [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a weekly increase in copper inventory by 10.83% to 116,140 tons, reaching a six-month high as of October 31 [1] - International copper inventory decreased by 1,422 tons to 15,059 tons [1] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventory reached 355,660 tons, the highest level since April 2003 [1][4] - The overall trend of declining inventories in domestic and international exchanges is generally supportive for copper prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are likely to be in a volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [4][38][39] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend with increased price fluctuations, ranging from 82,300 yuan/ton to 89,270 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, operating in the range of 10,253 - 11,200 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - On October 29th local time, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. It also announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting December 1st. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.3%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.7%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 16.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 25.6% [2][11][37] 3. Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous month but a 10.1% year - on - year increase. As of October 30, 2025, the refining fee for Chinese copper smelters was - 4.45 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 42.7 US dollars/kiloton [15] - **Scrap Copper Spread**: As of October 31, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaom was 87,565 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 78,800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 885 yuan/ton [21] 4. Demand Side - As of September 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 437.8 billion yuan, with a 9.9% year - on - year growth rate [23] 5. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 116,140 tons, an increase of 11,348 tons from the previous week. As of October 29, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 135,350 tons, a slight increase of 775 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 10.51%. As of October 30, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 348,662 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 106,600 tons, with a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous week, and the inventories in Guangdong and Wuxi were 19,200 tons and 40,300 tons respectively [29] 6. Outlook - **Price Trend Factor Analysis**: Key factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies (PMI has declined), US policies (uncertainty in the Fed's December rate cut), supply (refined copper processing fees at the bottom, high copper production), demand (slowing power grid investment growth, increasing copper product output), and inventory (significant cumulative inventory of COMEX copper) [36] - **Market Outlook**: Considering various factors such as the Fed's policy, copper supply, demand, and inventory, copper prices are likely to be in a volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [37][38][39]

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced narrow fluctuations, opening at $10,929.5 per ton and currently trading at $10,947.0 per ton, reflecting a 0.27% increase [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $10,970 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $10,927 per ton [1] Group 2 - On October 30, LME copper futures opened at $11,123.0, peaked at $11,125.5, and closed at $10,924.0, marking a decrease of 2.09% [2] - Indonesian copper miner AMMAN MINERAL reported a copper concentrate production of 310,143 tons and cathode copper production of 41,052 tons with sales of 39,805 tons for the first nine months [2] - As of October 30, the LME registered warehouse receipts totaled 120,725 tons, with canceled receipts at 14,225 tons, a reduction of 450 tons, and total copper inventory at 134,950 tons, down by 400 tons [2]

Core Insights - LME copper futures prices are experiencing high volatility, with the opening price at $10,974 per ton and a current price of $11,028 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - The trading session saw a peak price of $11,050 per ton and a low of $10,974 per ton [1] Group 1: Market Overview - On October 27, LME copper futures opened at $10,995 per ton, reached a high of $11,094 per ton, and closed at $11,004 per ton, marking a 0.52% increase [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai-London ratio is 7.99, with an import loss of -¥785.85 per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of -¥798.09 per ton [2] - As of October 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 35,392 tons, an increase of 321 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 126,000 tons, with 9,975 tons of canceled receipts, a decrease of 375 tons [2] - Total copper inventory at LME stands at 135,975 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 375 tons [2]