美国关门超40天，创历史政府停摆时间最长纪录。上一次被迫关门35天也是现任总统特朗普刷新的纪录。 我认为短期震荡还会继续，向下空间也在被压缩，即使短期无法再重回1000元大关，刷新4400美元的历史高点，反复震荡过程中再次冲高的可能性存在。 一句话，美国政府开门事情担心情绪才能缓解，谈判结果没有出炉，经济数据延后公布，多空情绪人还是有担心，单边延续性不会太久，节奏上注意多空 力量转换。 4小时图显示，低点位置不断抬高，向上挑战4050美元压力点，上周五给出3995-93美元的多完美抵达4025美元，而之后尾盘回踩确认后整体方向偏强，今 天重点关注4050美元的突破，此位置突破后回踩还会再延续向上。 今天，金价回踩后的支撑在4030-20美元的范围内，依托上周五反弹高点回踩确认多，上面突破4050-60美元后延续向上，亚盘上涨若欧盘延续，美盘前还 有一次多的机会。 上周五，本该公布的非农就业数据也没戏了，数据都没人公布，进入到数据的"真空"地带，谁也不知道开门时间。 前面三次美国政府停摆期间，美元指数是先跌后涨，这一次美元指数却不跌反弹，走势和黄金同涨同跌，金价一直压制在4050美元之下震荡，今天早上加 速上涨 ...

Core Insights - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% [1] - The demand for gold jewelry fell by 32.50% to 270.036 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase to 352.116 tons [1] - Industrial and other gold usage increased by 2.72% to 60.578 tons [1] - Spot gold prices surpassed $4,060 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.78% [1] Consumption Trends - The performance of different gold product categories showed significant variance, with high-value jewelry maintaining strong market appeal despite overall consumption decline [1] - The demand for gold bars remains robust, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, highlighting gold's role as a safe-haven asset [1] - The rapid development of industries such as electronics and new energy has contributed to a steady recovery in industrial gold demand [1] Trading Activity - In the first three quarters of this year, trading in gold derivatives was notably active, with total trading volume at the Shanghai Gold Exchange reaching 23,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.45% [1] - The total trading value at the exchange was 17.68 trillion yuan, up 41.55% year-on-year [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a trading volume of 10.36 tons for all gold futures and options, marking a 59.98% increase year-on-year, with a trading value of 61.08 trillion yuan, up 112.60% [1] Production Data - Domestic raw gold production in the first three quarters of 2025 was 271.782 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.39% [2] - Imported raw gold production reached 121.149 tons, up 8.94% year-on-year, leading to a total gold production of 392.931 tons, a 3.60% increase [2] Price Movements - Spot gold prices peaked at $4,381.29 per ounce on October 20, 2025, before experiencing a decline [2] - On October 27, spot gold prices fell below the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time in the month [2] Market Outlook - Analysts have differing views on gold price trends, with some suggesting that recent declines may signal the start of a downward trend [2] - Despite acknowledging short-term risks of price corrections, several institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with Standard Chartered raising its 2026 average price forecast by 16% to $4,488 [2]

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 06 November 2025 Metals Weekly Gold takeaways from Asia Global Commodities Research Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ali A. Ibrahim (44-20) 3493-6438 ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan India Private Limited See page 10 for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{tUDAQ2i_HWies-YTifZuBJMEucqmOBMFsURY4gG ...

Core Insights - Gold spot prices have remained near the $4,000/oz level after experiencing early-week volatility and a brief dip below support [3][4][6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has contributed to investor caution, leading to a weakening of the U.S. Dollar towards the end of the week [5][6] - A significant decline in consumer sentiment, reaching one of the lowest levels in history, indicates that fear and uncertainty may continue to support gold prices as November approaches [5][6] Market Dynamics - Early in the week, gold prices tested a support boundary but traded relatively flat, with a slight increase of $10–$20/oz, indicating institutional interest [3] - A notable sell-off occurred on Tuesday, with prices dropping sharply to $3,930/oz, reflecting market reactions to perceived overvaluation [4] - Midweek, bargain hunters drove prices back up to $3,985/oz, aided by a softening U.S. Dollar and concerns over the prolonged government shutdown [5] Investor Sentiment - The combination of a bleak consumer sentiment survey and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown suggests that gold may remain an attractive asset for investors [5][6] - Despite a late-week rebound in gold prices, traders are cautious about potential downside risks if news regarding the resolution of the government shutdown emerges [6]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the overall impact on trade will be limited, with a predicted decrease in the probability of maintaining tariffs by about 10 percentage points [1] - The Supreme Court's decision is expected between December 2025 and January 2026, and if tariffs are deemed illegal, the government may need months to refund approximately $115 to $145 billion in tariffs [1] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on U.S. Treasuries, noting that the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs could lead to significant market volatility [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - TD Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in November, with a close vote expected at 5-4 [4] - Danske Bank also anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, highlighting the importance of the votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor [7] - The Bank of England's decision-making is influenced by ongoing inflation and labor market conditions, with a cautious approach to further easing [7] Group 3: Commodity and Sector Analysis - CITIC Securities predicts that gold prices will continue to rise, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic performance [8] - CITIC Securities also notes that the white liquor industry is at a bottom, with a recovery expected in 2026, while the beer sector is anticipated to see stable revenue and profit [9] - CITIC Securities reports that the aluminum sector is experiencing high profit expansion, with demand for electrolytic aluminum exceeding expectations [10] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - CITIC Securities highlights that the current market rally is characterized by an increase in total deposits and a need for improvement in total wealth [11] - The firm expects that 2026 will be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms potentially reaching profitability [12] - The outlook for AI capital expenditures remains optimistic, with significant growth expected in 2025 and 2026, despite uncertainties in 2027 [13]

Core Insights - Gold prices are struggling to maintain upward momentum, remaining below $4000 despite previous rebounds [1][2] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking clear directional bias [2][3] Market Analysis - Gold has experienced an 11% pullback from its historical high of $4382 reached on October 20, remaining in a consolidation mode for the eighth consecutive trading day [3] - Strong U.S. private sector employment data and earnings reports have countered the dollar's retreat due to the unprecedented government shutdown [3] - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the expected 25,000, while the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.4 [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month are approximately 62%, down from 69% prior to the data release [3] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for gold appears neutral to slightly bearish, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midpoint [6] - Gold is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from its parabolic rise since August 19 [6] - Buyers need a daily close above $4000 to target the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,079, while strong selling pressure is expected around the psychological level of $4000 [6] - Support levels are identified at $3930, with further support at the October 28 low of $3887 and a demand zone between $3865-$3850 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the rising trend of gold ETFs, driven by increased risk aversion due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has reached a record 36 days, impacting economic forecasts negatively [1][2] - As of November 5, 2025, the gold ETF fund has seen a 4.10% increase over the past month, with a trading volume of 6.51 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.76% [1] - The COMEX gold futures price rose by 0.75% to 3990.40 USD per ounce, reflecting market reactions to the ongoing government shutdown and its potential economic impacts [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, with upward movements typically associated with geopolitical chaos and weak U.S. economic performance [2] - Current risks to gold prices, such as a recovering U.S. economy or a hawkish Federal Reserve, are not significantly present at this time, suggesting a favorable environment for gold [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing global liquidity expansion and increased preference for gold as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of continued price increases driven by multiple factors [2] Group 3 - Recent data shows that the gold ETF fund experienced a net outflow of 46.82 million yuan, but over the past 20 trading days, there were 11 days of net inflow totaling 5.099 billion yuan, indicating a strong interest in gold investments [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to $3941.30/oz, and silver futures closing at $46.90/oz [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 36 days, impacting market liquidity and driving asset value rebalancing, which has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index and the decline in international gold prices [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - The prolonged government shutdown has created market uncertainty, leading to a preference for the dollar as a safe asset, which has put downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The market has adjusted its expectations for a December interest rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 70%, which has influenced the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [9] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - New tax regulations regarding gold trading will take effect from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, focusing on VAT exemptions for exchange-traded transactions and physical delivery management [6] - The tax policy is expected to accelerate the centralization of gold trading in China and may shift interest towards gold investment products, although its impact on global gold prices is anticipated to be minimal [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by rising real interest rates and cooling rate cut expectations, with short-term weakness expected if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [10] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the broader trend of dollar credit expansion [10]

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's economy grew at a rate of 3.8% in the third quarter, with exports showing resilience [1] - The number of visitors to Hong Kong has increased significantly, indicating a recovery in the tourism market [4] Capital Market - Hong Kong's IPO financing reached over $500 billion, marking a four-year high [4] - The influx of international capital reflects confidence in Hong Kong's status as a global financial center [6] International Relations - The U.S. is considering providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which may not affect its own weapon stockpile [6] - Russia has expressed discontent, stating that supplying weapons will not resolve the conflict and may escalate tensions [8] U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government has been shut down since last month, marking the second-longest shutdown in history [10] - Over one million U.S. soldiers are not receiving pay, leading to financial difficulties for many families [11] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices may rise if the government shutdown continues, as it typically increases demand for safe-haven assets [11] - Recent tax policies have significantly impacted the gold jewelry sector, potentially reducing profits by over 50% for some companies [25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, breaking the critical support level of $3990, follows three months of continuous increases, raising concerns about the future trajectory of gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold was a leading asset this year, reaching historical highs in March, with a 47% surge in global investment demand in Q3, and Chinese investors purchasing 74 tons of gold, a 19% increase year-on-year [3]. - On November 3, gold prices dropped over 1% during U.S. trading hours, struggling to maintain the $4000 mark, and fell below $3990 on November 4, a significant level previously viewed as a "bullish lifeline" by many institutions [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The primary pressure on gold prices comes from the strengthening U.S. dollar, which surpassed the 100 mark on November 4 for the first time since August, as Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to a rate cut in December, boosting confidence in the dollar [5]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surged to 4.11%, offering higher returns without the volatility associated with gold, prompting large investors to withdraw from the gold market [6][7]. - A decrease in risk aversion due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, compounded by the lack of timely economic data releases due to the U.S. government shutdown, leading to increased gold sell-offs [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are likely to experience "volatile downward movement" due to the strong dollar and reduced likelihood of a December rate cut, with a potential drop to $3900 [11]. - However, the long-term outlook remains positive for gold, suggesting a "value return" despite the current "pressure test," depending on whether investors are focused on short-term trading or long-term positioning [11][13].