受投资者止盈抛售、美元指数走强、美伊地缘紧张局势边际缓和等因素压制； 中国黄金协会指出2025 年黄金消费量有所下降、而产量增加，亦对短期上涨空间形成一定压制。2月5日中国黄金协会数据显 示，2025年我国黄金产量381.339吨、同比上升1.1%，黄金消费量950.096吨，同比下降3.6%。此外，2 月5日晚间上期所发布通知，称自2月9收盘结算时起，将对黄金、 白银 期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度 及交易保证金比例进行调整，其中黄金期货涨跌停板幅度调至17%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调为 18%、一般持仓交易保证金比例为19%。预计短线黄金维持宽幅震荡走势，重点关注2月6日美伊核谈判 进展、以及美国货币政策预期变化等。 ...

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1096.14元/克，下跌1.48%。 国际黄金价格报4689.0美元/盎司，下跌4.1%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 机构坚定看多金价长期上行 摩根大通表示，今年各国央行和投资者的黄金需求足够强劲，将推动金价在2026年底前升至每盎司6300 美元，这一看多预期强化了市场对黄金的长期配置信心，为金价提供坚实的底部支撑，也让投资者在短 期波动中更倾向于持有黄金资产。 美联储政策预期反复扰动短期行情 特朗普提名鹰派倾向的凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席后，又强调降息"几乎没有悬念"。叠加美国1月私营 部门就业数据逊于预期，强化了市场对2026年美联储降息的押注，为无息资产黄金提供支撑。同时非农 就业报告推迟发布，市场失去验证降息预期的关键依据，加剧短期多空博弈。 去美元化深化叠加央行购金托底金价 西班牙《机密报》指出金价走势折射美国霸权公信力崩塌，全球半数央行正增持黄金作为应对美元疲软 的战略资产。中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，全球央行购金趋势延续，为金价提供长期基本面支撑， 削弱短期回调幅度。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎 ...

周四(2月5日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格震荡走弱，目前交投于4857.19美元/盎司附近，现货黄金价格在 最近的盘中交易中下跌，收于5000美元关键阻力位下方，未能重新站上这一心理关口。目前短期看跌修 正波势头强劲，限制了金价在当前阶段快速反弹的可能性。随着交易价格跌破EMA50，这些负面压力 不断增加。 黄金价格大跳水，根据世界黄金协会(2025年)的数据，全球地上黄金储量估计约为216,265公吨。若以此 计算，现货黄金的市值在此时段蒸发1.4万亿美元，约等于蒸发了一个伯克希尔哈撒韦和一个AMD。 日线级别上，金价自1月29日5320美元历史峰值后便步入高位震荡回落通道，今日更是跌破5000美元关 键心理关口，黄昏星形态雏形显现，短期调整压力显着；均线系统层面，5日均线向下拐头与10日均线 形成死叉，价格同时失守20日均线支撑，中期多头排列的格局被破坏，短期行情正式由空头主导 在5100美元关口的失败和随后的下跌为黄金的进一步短期贬值提供了依据。移动平均收敛发散(MACD) 线位于信号线之上且高于零，而收缩的正直方图表明动能正在减弱。相对强弱指数(RSI)为46，处于中 性且低于中线。 然而，200期简单移 ...

Group 1 - Silver and gold experienced significant volatility, with silver futures rising by 10% to around $92 before dropping to $83, ultimately closing up 5% [1] - Gold futures also saw fluctuations, initially rising by 2.72% before falling to a 1% decline, closing at $4980 [1] - The analyst believes that $100 for silver and $5000 for gold represent major resistance levels, which will become more evident over time as market volatility decreases [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that international gold prices will reach $6200 next month, followed by a decline to $5900 by the end of the year [2] - A prominent fund manager from Fidelity International stated that they would significantly buy into gold if there is a 5% to 7% market correction, as they believe the current market has eliminated a lot of excess [2] - The analyst agrees with the Fidelity manager, suggesting that if gold prices drop below $4500, it would present a good buying opportunity, although predicting such a drop is challenging [4] Group 3 - The current technical outlook suggests that a second bottom around $4500 would be favorable, with short-term rebounds above $5000 seen as a selling opportunity [4] - The analyst believes that the risk-reward ratio favors buying around the $4500 level, indicating that opportunities may outweigh risks at that price point [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic selloff of gold was driven by a combination of factors after prices surged above $5,500 per ounce [1] Group 1 - The selloff indicates a significant market reaction to the previously high gold prices [1] - Factors contributing to the selloff include market dynamics and investor sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices, predicting they could reach $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, with significant upward risks [2] - Goldman Sachs highlights that the strong performance of gold in 2025 and early 2026 is driven by structural factors rather than speculative excess, with central bank reserve diversification being a key driver of price movements [2] - The shift of global central banks from the US dollar to precious metals has fundamentally altered the demand structure for gold, making it more sensitive to changes in official sector demand [2] Group 2 - The current trading price of London gold is reported at $5,083.72 per ounce, reflecting a 2.79% increase, with a daily high of $5,091.62 and a low of $4,908.40, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - Technical analysis shows that the 50-period moving average is providing initial support for price corrections, with momentum indicators like MACD and RSI suggesting a mild bullish outlook [3] - The presence of Fibonacci resistance levels may limit further price increases, and maintaining prices above these levels could open up additional upward potential [3]

沃什获新任美联储主席提名，短期不改美联储宽松基调。国内1月PMI回落，内需仍需政策呵护。权益 市场ETF流出或告一段落，风险偏好维持高位，看好后续行情。 海外方面，沃什获新任美联储主席提名，主张降息+中长期缩表，短期不会改变美联储宽松基调，亦难 无序降息。金融条件友好托底海外制造业，美国1月标普制造业PMI超预期，未来一段时间海外增长维 持韧性。 国内方面，2026年1月制造业PMI再度回落至收缩区间，供需分项均较季节性水平走弱，而购进价格指 数高位进一步上行、出厂价格回升至景气度区间，或显示上游原材料价格的快速上涨短期对制造业供需 产生一定抑制。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周（1月26日-30日）黄金、白银冲高后巨震，股市震荡回调，债市走势分 化，短端利率上行、长端利率下行。近期商品和权益市场调整，风险偏好下降对债券市场偏友好，但1 月中旬国新办发布会邹行长提及十年期国债在1.8%-1.9%稳定运行，叠加近期银行配债已较为积极，后 续长端利率向下突破1.8%关键点位阻力加大。1月PMI重回收缩区间但出厂价格指数回暖，通胀预期下 货币宽松预期不足，债市向下突破或需看到风险偏好的全面回落和货币政策的明确宽松。 ...

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1045.0元/克，下跌3.86%。 国际黄金价格报4834.5美元/盎司，上涨3.91%。 凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，其长期鹰派立场及"降息+缩表并行"的政策倾向，动摇了市场对美 元单边贬值的押注。市场预期未来流动性收紧，美元走强，黄金作为无息资产吸引力下降，引发多头集 中平仓，直接触发黄金40年来最大单日跌幅，后续仍将影响市场对美联储政策的定价逻辑。 2. 前期暴涨后获利盘集中平仓与杠杆踩踏 2026年开年黄金累计涨幅超24%，白银涨幅超60%，市场积累大量获利盘。叠加全球交易所紧急上调贵 金属交易保证金，高杠杆投机盘被强制平仓，形成"下跌→强平→加剧下跌"的负反馈循环，放大短期跌 幅，推动黄金短期内回撤超11%。 3. 地缘局势缓和削弱黄金避险需求 特朗普称正与伊朗进行对话，此前支撑黄金上涨的中东地缘避险情绪边际降温，资金从黄金等避险资产 中撤离。尽管全球央行购金等长期支撑逻辑未变，但短期避险买盘收缩，加剧了黄金价格的回调幅度， 后续地缘动态仍将成为黄金波动的重要触发因素。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant volatility in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, but mainstream institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, macroeconomic uncertainties, and structural growth in investment demand [1][3][6]. Group 1: Recent Price Volatility - Gold and silver prices have recently experienced a sharp decline, with international gold prices nearing $4,400 per ounce [1]. - The volatility is driven by profit-taking, a shift in macroeconomic narratives, and concentrated trading positions, which have led to a chain reaction of sell-offs [3][4]. - The market's previous confidence in a dovish monetary policy was shaken by a sudden shift towards a hawkish stance with the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair [3][4]. Group 2: Institutional Outlook on Gold Prices - UBS Wealth Management has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of the year from $5,000 to $6,200 per ounce, expecting a drop to $5,900 by the end of 2026 [6]. - The long-term bullish sentiment is supported by strong demand driven primarily by investment rather than central bank purchases [6][7]. - Analysts emphasize that while short-term volatility may increase due to profit-taking, the long-term trend remains positive, with potential price targets ranging from $4,600 to $7,200 per ounce [6][7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Future Gold Prices - The sustainability and stability of central bank gold purchases are crucial, with a notable increase in gold holdings by central banks indicating a shift in asset allocation [7][8]. - Macroeconomic conditions and policy uncertainties, particularly regarding the Fed's independence and interest rate trends, are expected to influence gold prices [7][8]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as concerns over Iran, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to upward price pressures [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Demand and Market Sentiment - The World Gold Council projects global gold demand to reach 5,002 tons in 2025, driven by record investment demand, particularly through ETFs and physical gold purchases [8]. - The concentration of positions in the gold market, influenced by both institutional and retail investors, is expected to amplify short-term price volatility [8].

（责任编辑：郭健东 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每经AI快讯，2月2日，现货黄金跌幅进一步收窄至1.20%，收复4800美元，现报4801.83美元/盎 司。 每日经济新闻 ...