文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉设计了黄金星级、以及螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，来帮助判断黄金的估值高低。跟股市牛熊信号板类似，定期更新。 每周一，也会在小程序中更新螺丝钉黄金牛熊信号板，方便大家查询。 点击进入「 今天几星 」 小程序，在首页点击「牛熊信号板」按钮，就可以查看到当周最新的黄金牛熊信号板了。 以下是4 月 的黄金牛熊信号板， 长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 黄金价格 黄金的价格， • 内地主要参考上海金。 我们平时说金价多少元一克，指的就是上海金的价格。 两者走势很相似，差距主要是汇率变化引起的。 黄金历史星级 2025年4 月 ，黄金价格在 1.5 星级。 2022年最便宜的时候，黄金有到过4点几星级的低估。 黄金在2011-2016年，走出了长达6年的阴跌熊市。这个长度甚至超过了A股历史最长的熊市。 中间也出现过5星级的机会。 2017年之后，黄金逐渐从低估中走出。 过去10年，主要是2019-2020年，以及2023年至今，是黄金的主要上涨时间。 影响黄金价格的因素 黄金星级，主要参考的是黄金的开采成本、以及同期的美股实际利率。 这也是影响黄金价格最重要的因素。 （1）黄金开采成本， ...

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with London gold hitting $3059.63 per ounce and New York gold reaching $3071.30 per ounce on March 27 [1] - As of March 28, London gold surpassed $3070 per ounce, with current prices at $3079.25 per ounce, reflecting a 0.74% increase, while New York gold is at $3120.13 per ounce, up 0.95% [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with prices for gold jewelry surpassing 930 yuan per gram, including brands like Chow Sang Sang at 934 yuan per gram and Chow Tai Fook at 932 yuan per gram [3] Group 3: Banks Adjusting Gold Accumulation Products - Several banks have raised the minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products due to rising gold prices, with China Construction Bank increasing the minimum from 700 yuan to 800 yuan starting March 31 [5] - China Merchants Bank has also raised the minimum for gold account purchases from 700 yuan to 750 yuan, marking the second increase this year [9] - Ningbo Bank announced an increase in the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation from 700 yuan to 800 yuan effective March 19, 2025 [14] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China raised the minimum investment for its gold accumulation business from 650 yuan to 700 yuan starting March 3 [17] - Bank of China adjusted the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products from 650 yuan to 700 yuan starting February 10 [20] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the adjustments in banks' gold accumulation rules are closely tied to the rising gold prices, which are expected to remain high due to increased market risk aversion stemming from global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [20] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3100 to $3300 per ounce, predicting a potential range of $3250 to $3520 per ounce [22] - There are concerns about market overheating, with some institutions indicating that gold valuations are nearing historical highs, suggesting caution for future investments [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while gold prices have reached a historical high of $3,000 per ounce, there are underlying concerns regarding overvaluation and potential market corrections [1][2] Group 2 - Gold prices have been rising continuously since the beginning of the year, driven by concerns over Trump's tariff policies and fears of a potential recession in the U.S. [1] - The significant premium of New York gold over London gold indicates a supply-demand imbalance, leading to increased gold prices [1] Group 3 - Gold valuation is nearing historical highs, with current prices at the 99.6th percentile, suggesting caution for investors as the safety margin for further price increases is diminishing [2] - Unpriced negative factors include the potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and an exaggerated narrative around U.S. recession, which could negatively impact gold prices if expectations are adjusted [2]