法国5月制造业PMI初值录得49.5，为28个月来新高。 ...

法国5月制造业PMI初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

印度5月制造业PMI初值 58.3，前值 58.2。 ...

日本5月制造业PMI初值 49，前值48.7。 ...

Economic Events and Data Summary - The National Office will hold a press conference regarding technology finance policies at 15:00 [1] - France's preliminary manufacturing PMI for May will be released at 15:15 [1] - Germany's preliminary manufacturing PMI for May will be available at 15:30 [1] - The Eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI for May will be published at 16:00 [1] - The UK's preliminary manufacturing PMI and services PMI for May will be announced at 16:30 [1] - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for May will be released at 16:00 [1] - The European Central Bank will publish the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting at 19:30 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 17 will be reported at 20:30 [1] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for May from S&P Global in the U.S. will be available at 21:45 [1] - The annualized total of existing home sales in the U.S. for April will be released at 22:00 [1] - The EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending May 16 will be published at 22:30 [1]

Report Summary Core Views - In April, both sides of foreign exchange settlement and sales volume increased, with the scale of settlement and sales rising simultaneously, and the overall deficit slightly expanding. The significant growth of forward net settlement reflects the improvement of enterprises' settlement expectations and more proactive hedging behavior [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the Federal Reserve maintained a wait - and - see stance. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate increased [3]. Data Core Highlights Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Structure - In April 2025, the bank foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit was $4.257 billion, slightly expanding from the previous value of - $1.967 billion. The scale of both settlement and sales increased, indicating higher activity in enterprises' foreign exchange transactions. The surplus of bank customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from $96 million to $589.3 million, while the deficit of banks' own foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from - $2.063 billion to - $10.15 billion [4]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose 0.34% month - on - month, and the market trading activity declined slightly, with the average spot inquiry trading volume falling to $42.234 billion [4]. Forward Transaction Structure - In April, the forward market continued to recover. The forward settlement signing amount increased by $4.358 billion month - on - month, and the forward sales signing amount decreased by $2.193 billion, driving the cumulative outstanding forward net settlement amount to expand from $903 million to $5.231 billion. The forward purchase performance amount increased by $7.519 billion, much higher than the increase in settlement performance [5]. - The forward settlement hedging ratio rose to 8.59%, the highest point this year, while the forward purchase hedging ratio dropped to 4.3% [5]. Securities Investment - In April, the foreign - related receipts and payments under securities investment changed from a surplus of $7.37 billion to a deficit of $12.493 billion. The trading volumes of both the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased, and the two - way difference narrowed. However, the bond custody volume of overseas investors in RMB bonds rose to 29,781.5 billion yuan [6]. Goods Trade - In April, the goods trade surplus narrowed, dragging down the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 52 in March to 50.8 in April, and China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, returning to the contraction range. The US manufacturing PMI remained at 51.2, while Japan and the Eurozone were still in the contraction range [6]. Exchange Rate Views - The US inflation shows an initial slowdown trend, but the Fed maintains a cautious policy stance. The US core CPI in April fell to 2.8% year - on - year, and the PPI also declined month - on - month. However, the Fed did not adjust its policy, and the US dollar index fell to around 100 [8]. - The easing of tariffs boosted expectations, and the exchange rate fluctuated more after the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor. In May, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.20. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the exchange rate was more driven by market supply and demand, and the short - term fluctuation range increased. The 1 - year USDCNY swap point dropped to - 2160, and the RMB exchange rate may show a two - way shock pattern in the short term [8].

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI for May, which reflects the economic climate of strategic emerging industries, increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, indicating a slight rebound beyond seasonal expectations due to recent financial policies and positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The EPMI's May reading of 51.0 is the third lowest for the same period historically, only better than May 2022 and May 2023 [7]. - The production, product orders, and export orders indices increased by 1.8, 2.9, and 10.8 points respectively, indicating a recovery in demand [2][8]. - The employment index saw a slight increase of 1.1 points, while the investment activities in emerging industries remained cautious, with R&D and new product launches declining by 2.1 and 0.1 points respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - New generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved performance, largely driven by external demand and domestic policy support [14][15]. - The export orders for high-end equipment rose by 13.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection saw a 22.7-point increase, indicating strong sectoral recovery [15]. - Conversely, the biological industry experienced a decline in export orders, continuing a downward trend from April [14][15]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate demand and address market distortions, as indicated by recent statements from the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. - The focus on completing the 'two重' construction project list by the end of June suggests a proactive approach to economic recovery [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Multiple liner companies have announced a price increase for early June, leading to a significant rise in the near - month contracts of US - bound shipping rates, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point. Attention should be paid to the capacity allocation of US - bound routes within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Content a. Shipping Rate Index - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1302.62 points, a 5.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1455.31 points, a 10.2% increase from the previous period. - On May 9, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 952.32 points, a 2.37% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 756.79 points, a 0.94% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1471.92 points, a 0.41% decrease from the previous period. - On May 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1345.17 points, a decrease of 4.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1161 USD/TEU, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2347 USD/FEU, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1106.38 points, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1445.24 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 857.65 points, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month; the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.2, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, reaching a four - month high. - In April, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9). - In April, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [2][3]. c. Trade and Policy - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainty to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments within 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided. - On May 14, China and the US reached multiple positive consensuses in their Geneva economic and trade talks, agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also cancelled 91% of counter - tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs, with both sides retaining 10% of tariffs. - Starting from June 1, 2025, multiple liner companies announced a new round of freight rate increases for major routes from the Far East to Europe [4]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the impact of tariffs, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long with a light position when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 400 points) and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 300 points), and it is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point [4]. e. Contract Information - On May 15, the closing price of the main contract 2506 was 1787.3, with a gain of 8.72%, a trading volume of 108,800 lots, and an open interest of 38,600 lots, an increase of 61 lots from the previous day. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%, and for the 2508 contract, it is 19%. - The company's margin requirements are 26% for contracts 2506 - 2604 and 29% for the 2508 contract. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that identifying the performance turning point is crucial for the market to move out of the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically leading performance turning points by 1-2 quarters [2] - The report highlights the importance of combining leading indicators with coincident indicators for better economic bottom assessments, as relying solely on coincident indicators may lead to delayed confirmations [2] - The key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with household medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [2] Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI significantly dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction for the first time since February, down from 50.5% [4] - M1 showed a slight year-on-year decline, while M2 increased, and the total social financing stock rose year-on-year, indicating a rebound in excess liquidity [7] - The total social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 12.243 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a slight recovery in new government bonds but a negative year-on-year change in new RMB loans [9] Leading Indicators - The report notes that M2 leads M1, which in turn leads the stock market bottom, with M2 showing a year-on-year increase of 8% in April, up from 7% [7] - The social financing pulse increased to 26.16% in April, up from 25.41%, with new government bonds showing a slight recovery while new RMB loans turned negative [9] - The report indicates that the decline in household medium and long-term loans is closely related to the real estate sales cycle, with April showing a year-on-year decrease of 12.97% for household medium and long-term loans [12] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The report discusses that the narrowing of the decline in household and corporate loans is essential for market recovery, with the April average DR007 rate marginally dropping to 1.73% [15] - The central bank's recent decision to lower the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates is aimed at stabilizing the market [15] - The report mentions that the recovery in social financing and M2, along with improved export performance, reflects a resilient Chinese economy despite the macroeconomic downturn [18]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on Shanghai Lead, written on May 6, 2025, with a daily review cycle [1] - The researcher is Cao Baiquan with consulting certificate number Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Due to the weak performance on the demand side, there is a possibility of continued correction in lead prices in the short term [3] Group 3: Macro Aspect - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.8 from the previous value, reaching the lowest level in the past three months [3] Group 4: Supply Side - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production with an increasing operating rate, but there was a month - on - month production cut in April due to partial maintenance; the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries has limited the supply of recyclers, causing some smelters to suspend production due to cost issues and thus reducing the operating rate [3] Group 5: Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for consumption. The willingness to stock up before the holiday is low, downstream purchases are limited, and the order volume is relatively low [3] Group 6: Inventory Aspect - As of April 30, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 44,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from April 28 and 4,500 tons from April 24 [3] Group 7: Technical Aspect - From the hourly line, the futures price has fallen below the oscillation range; from the daily line, the price has fallen below the support level [3]