Core Viewpoint - The rapid rise of the "Guzi economy" is becoming a significant growth driver in the consumer sector, but competing on price alone may not expand the market size effectively [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The "Guzi" economy, derived from the English word "goods," refers to merchandise related to the two-dimensional culture [4]. - The market size of China's Guzi economy is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 40.63% increase from 2023, with expectations to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029 [4]. - The current Guzi economy in China is still in its early stages, with a significant portion of the market dominated by Japanese and Korean products [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Since 2020, game developers have begun to explore new avenues, with popular mobile games like "Arknights" and "Genshin Impact" driving the development of derivative products [6]. - The official flagship store of "Genshin Impact" generated approximately 150 million yuan in revenue in 2022, indicating the potential for significant earnings from game-related merchandise [6]. - The integration of game IPs with the Guzi economy is seen as a viable path forward, with a focus on product innovation and collaboration with physical retail [8][12]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The primary challenge for game IPs lies in the willingness of players to spend in-game but not necessarily purchase physical merchandise [14]. - There is potential for game-related products to emphasize their "monetary value" and "practical value," moving beyond simple decorative items to wearable merchandise that appeals to a broader audience [14]. - The industry may adopt strategies similar to Pokémon, utilizing derivative products and unrestricted collaborations to bridge the gap between virtual and real-world markets [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the aggressive growth targets set by Pop Mart, which has achieved a significant revenue milestone of over 10 billion yuan for the first time, with a net profit growth of nearly 200% to 3.4 billion yuan [2][3] - Pop Mart's success is attributed to the frequent emergence of blockbuster IPs and rapid growth in overseas markets, with 17 IPs generating over 1 billion yuan each, and plush toys showing remarkable growth of 12% year-on-year [3][4] - The company's overseas revenue has doubled, rising from 16.9% in 2023 to 38.9% in 2024, with a focus on expanding in Southeast Asia, North America, and Europe [4] Group 2 - Haidilao is diversifying its brand portfolio by launching multiple sub-brands, including 11 new restaurant brands, to alleviate growth pressure as its main brand faces stagnation [5][6] - The company has seen low single-digit growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a decline in average customer spending, prompting a search for new growth avenues beyond hot pot [6][7] - Despite internal entrepreneurial efforts, Haidilao's sub-brands currently contribute only 1% to overall revenue, raising questions about their ability to scale in a competitive market [7] Group 3 - Nongfu Spring's aggressive pricing strategy with its green bottle water has significantly impacted competitors like Yibao and Wahaha, capturing a market share of 9% shortly after launch [11][12] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with Yibao and Wahaha adjusting their strategies in response to Nongfu Spring's market entry, leading to a decline in Yibao's revenue for the first time in three years [12][13] - Despite gaining market share, Nongfu Spring's revenue from bottled water products has decreased by 21.3%, indicating a trade-off between market share and profitability [12] Group 4 - Xiangpiaopiao's attempt to upscale its product offerings has faced backlash due to a significant price increase, reflecting the challenges traditional brands face in transitioning to higher-end markets [15][16] - The pricing controversy highlights the struggle of established brands to redefine their image amidst rising competition from fresh tea beverage brands [16][17] Group 5 - TOP TOY, a brand under Miniso, has announced plans for global expansion, aiming for overseas sales to account for over 50% of its revenue within five years, supported by a budget of 10 billion yuan [25] - Bawang Tea Ji has submitted an IPO application, reporting a GMV of 29.5 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.515 billion yuan for 2024, marking a significant milestone in the new tea beverage sector [26] - China Duty Free Group reported a 36% decline in net profit for 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges in the duty-free industry [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing decline of offline "谷店" (Grocery Stores) in China, highlighting the reasons behind the closures and the shift towards a more cost-effective and consumer-driven market, including the rise of "垃圾堆" (junk pile) stores that sell second-hand goods [3][6][19]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - Nearly a hundred offline "谷店" have closed in the first three months of the year, with some industry experts predicting that the peak of closures is yet to come [3][6]. - The closures are attributed to factors such as poor location choices, rational consumer behavior, and limited product selection freedom, leading to excess inventory [6][12]. - The rental costs for "谷店" have increased significantly, with some landlords raising their revenue share to as high as 30% [7][10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumer enthusiasm for "谷店" has become more rational, with many feeling fatigued by the repetitive offerings and high prices of new products [12][15]. - The rise of "垃圾堆" stores, which sell second-hand goods at lower prices, reflects a shift towards more economical consumption patterns [21][22]. - The popularity of "垃圾堆" stores is driven by their affordability and the availability of unique IP products that are not found in traditional "谷店" [21][22]. Group 3: Business Adaptation and Future Directions - Some "谷店" are adapting by diversifying their offerings, such as incorporating DIY workshops and themed cafes to attract customers [31][34][36]. - The emergence of themed cafes and card game shops within the "谷店" ecosystem indicates a trend towards creating unique consumer experiences to differentiate from competitors [32][36]. - The market is undergoing a significant transformation, with many store owners realizing that the previous model of easy profitability is no longer viable, prompting a need for strategic pivots [31][36].

Group 1 - The company is a leading player in the domestic educational and office supplies market, with significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024, achieving revenue of 1.758 billion yuan and a net profit of 105 million yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 1.45% and 11.41% respectively [1] - The office direct sales industry is experiencing steady growth, with the company focusing on centralized and e-commerce procurement for government and large enterprises, successfully winning several procurement projects [1] - The company is expanding its product supply categories in office direct sales, including MRO and employee welfare products, to capture a larger market share in digital procurement [1] Group 2 - The "millet economy" in China is growing rapidly, with the market size expected to increase from 120.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of approximately 40.63% [2] - The company is actively developing unique cultural and creative products and has obtained multiple IP licenses, including popular franchises, to continuously launch related products [2] - Future plans include promoting proprietary IPs to build a diversified IP matrix and develop distinctive cultural and creative products [2] Group 3 - The company is covered for the first time with a "buy" rating, as it is a leader in the educational sector and is actively developing cultural and creative products [3] - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 141 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 245 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.8%, 30.8%, and 33.2% respectively [3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.26 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.46 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 37.34, 28.55, and 21.44 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese millet economy market is expanding rapidly, projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024 with a year-on-year growth rate of 41%, and expected to surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025. The low conversion rate of domestic IP compared to the US and Japan indicates significant growth potential in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for High Market Prosperity - Supply-side factors include an increase in specialized players such as copyright agents, trendy toy brands, contract manufacturers, millet stores, and second-hand trading platforms, which enhance authorization and sales channels [2]. - Demand-side factors involve the expansion of domestic subculture user base and a shift in consumer perception from entertainment products to emotional values like cultural belonging and social connection [2]. Group 2: IP Value and Monetization Paths - Shanghai Film holds 60 IPs authorized by Shanghai Film Group and Shanghai Animation Film Studio, focusing on revitalizing classic animation IPs through content renewal, commercial authorization, game collaboration, and cultural product development [3]. - Light Media emphasizes content development over derivatives, with the animated film "Ne Zha" grossing $2.1 billion globally, ranking fifth in box office history, and generating over 300 million yuan in merchandise sales within a month of release [3]. - Ao Fei Entertainment centers on developing trendy toys and AI toys based on anime IPs [4]. - Alibaba Pictures operates Alibaba Fish, the largest IP authorization agency in China, collaborating with top global IPs and providing comprehensive development and operation services [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on content IP development with companies like Shanghai Film (revitalizing classic animation IPs), Ao Fei Entertainment (developing trendy toys and AI toys), and Yuewen Group (leading in web literature IP with impressive derivative growth) [5]. - In IP authorization operations, Alibaba Pictures is noteworthy for its extensive IP authorization platform [5]. - For IP derivative product creation and sales, attention should be given to Pop Mart (new IP launches, overseas expansion, and product diversification), Huali Technology, Tom Cat, and Fengyu Zhu [5].

以下文章来源于惊蛰研究所 ，作者惊蛰研究所消费组 惊蛰研究所 . 探索发现新经济。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 棉花娃娃曾经是偶像经济下的产物。 作者丨成昱 来源丨惊蛰研究所 吃饭前先拍下"宝宝"跟食物的合影、旅游时镜头对焦的是可爱"崽崽"、生日时还要和"娃娃"一起在餐 厅切庆生蛋糕……然而这些备受年轻人宠溺的"崽崽"们可不是真正的小孩，而是萌感十足、触感柔软 的棉花娃娃。 坐拥80个棉花娃娃的娃妈"橘子"通常会购买以明星、二次元角色为原型的棉花娃娃，她告诉惊蛰研 究所，"每一只娃我都是当做崽来养的，就像养宠物的人喜欢撸猫撸狗一样，我们也特别喜欢rua娃吸 娃，大家的心态都是'宝宝那么可爱，让妈咪亲亲'，就是比较喜欢可爱或毛茸茸的事物"。 从追星应援产物到二次元同人二创制品，再到无属性棉花玩偶，棉花娃娃凭借可爱软萌的外表、能够 自由装扮的高可玩性，以及能够提供情感陪伴和治愈减压的情绪价值，俘获了大批年轻消费者的心。 与此同时，棉花娃娃的火爆也带火了娃衣、娃包、娃娃妆发等各类衍生品市场。 在"谷子经济"的催化下，棉花娃娃、娃衣等成为潮玩市场中不断增长的热门品类。在柔软的棉花娃娃 之上，愿意为热 ...

3月18日，话题#上海黄浦区对8岁以下禁售二次元#冲上热搜。 近年来，二次元产业快速发展，"谷子经济"渐成热潮（注："谷子"是英文goods的音译，指二次元 相关产品）。在不少商场、购物中心都能看到不少二次元商品和顾客。 据人民日报，为推动二次元新兴产业在合规框架内健康发展，上海黄浦区市场监管局日前发布 《黄浦区二次元衍生商品和服务经营合规指引》。《指引》第五章明确， 经营者不得向8周岁以 下未成年人销售二次元衍生商品和服务 。向8周岁以上未成年人销售时，应当通过线上或线下等 方式确认已取得相关监护人的同 意 。经营者应当确保商品和服务内容符合未成年人保护要求， 保护未成年人身心健康，避免涉及暴力、恐怖、色情等不良内容。 图片来源：视觉中国 图片来源：黄浦市场监管公众号 二次元衍生商品和服务是指基于动画、漫画、游戏、轻小说等二维文化内容开发的周边产品、运 营和组织各类二次元衍生商品销售活动的相关服务。比如，在主题快闪活动、二次元主题店、主 题餐饮、电商、直播带货、动漫展等场景下的经营活动。 近年来，二次元产业呈现出快速发展态势，市场规模不断扩大，用户群体持续增长，技术创新与 商业模式也在不断演进，受到不少年轻 ...

价值星球Planet . 以下文章来源于价值星球Planet ，作者方歌 透视内容本质，解锁商业价值 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 巨大的热度引来了贪念。 作者丨方歌 编辑丨 计然 来源丨价值星球Planet 上周，李明参加了一场特别的微信群聊。 晚上七点左右，管理员在群里艾特所有人，让超过50个群成员排队上麦，依次提供自己的订单日 期、闲鱼ID、银行卡号、真实姓名。 寂静的群聊一瞬间炸了。这是一个维权分群，成员全是购买了某位卖家的现货谷子却几个月都没收到 货的人。大群总共有500多人，被骗金额加起来有十几万块。 李明是倒数第十五个上麦的。在群聊里，他见到了半个多月没回消息的骗子本人，以及他的父母。意 外的是，退款进行得很顺利，从报信息到收款到账只花了不到一分钟。 谷子成风，已经是2024年的市场共识。艾媒咨询《2024-2025年中国谷子经济市场分析报告》显示， 近五年内，中国泛二次元及周边市场规模从2983亿元迅速提升至5977亿元，2029年则有望达到8344 亿元。 淘宝数据显示，2024年，"谷子"相关商品销量达到1700万件，同比增长近5倍。"吃谷"跨越次元壁， 成为年轻人的年度消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging cultural awakening to actively shape China's IP economy, achieving mutual empowerment between culture and economy through creativity and business [1]. Group 1: IP Economy and Cultural Impact - The film "Nezha" has surpassed a total box office of 14 billion yuan, leading to a surge in IP derivative products, creating a phenomenon where products are in high demand [1][3]. - The IP economy is characterized by the development, licensing, and production of derivative products around influential original content, representing a fusion of culture and economy [1][3]. - As China's GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, consumer spending is increasingly focused on spiritual needs, driving the growth of the cultural industry, particularly among Generation Z [3][10]. Group 2: Development of IP Industry in Guangdong - Guangdong has established a global toy production cluster, attracting significant foreign investment and evolving into a hub for IP economy development [5][18]. - Successful children's animation IPs like "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" and "Boonie Bears" have emerged from Guangdong, demonstrating effective long-term IP management and content iteration [7][9]. - The "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy) reflects a cultural consumption trend among youth, with the market size projected to grow from 221.2 billion yuan in 2017 to 652.1 billion yuan by 2025 [9][10]. Group 3: Market Potential and Global Influence - The global licensing market reached $356.5 billion in 2023, with China's licensing market growing to $13.77 billion, marking a 9.6% increase from 2022 [14][15]. - China's low market penetration in the licensing sector indicates significant growth potential, especially with the rise of traditional cultural IPs [15][20]. - Guangdong's strong supply chain and manufacturing capabilities position it as a dual hub for animation and toy industries, with the potential to transition from a "world factory" to a "cultural trendsetter" [18][20].

行 业 研 究 | 第1 海 证 学 | | --- | | Bohai Securities | [Table_MainInfo] 文化纸温和上涨可期，上海推动 IP、宠物消费发展 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 推荐组合：欧派家居（603833）、索菲亚（002572）、探路者（300005）、 森马服饰（002563）、乖宝宠物（301498）。 风险提示 宏观经济波动；原材料成本上涨；新产能无法及时消化；大客户流失。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 12 行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | SAC NO： S1150521120002 | | | 2025 | 年 月 2 | 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | |  行业要 ...