上海大一学生灵灵终于拆完了书桌前堆积的谷子快递盒，这是她的"假期专属犒劳"。不过，在她眼中， 买谷最开心的时刻不是拆快递的时候，而是下单付款的瞬间。"因为这个谷子马上就要属于我了！" 每逢节假日，很多年轻人像灵灵一样"犒劳自己"。他们为自己精心安排一场"情绪假期"，在忙碌的学习 工作之余，为生活充电，也为自我充电。 为热爱买单，为生活充电 "谷子不只是一件商品，更是一份心情、一段体验、一种与喜爱事物紧密相连的感觉。"大二学生琼声 说，平时学习生活忙碌，假期里她会把收藏的谷子拿出来摸一摸，仿佛喜爱的角色就在身边陪伴。"看 到'我推'那张帅脸，就觉得一切都很美好。" 她口中的"谷子"是"Goods"的音译，泛指二次元周边，包含徽章、钥匙扣、亚克力板、流沙麻将等品 类。"我推"则是网络社群中常用的表达方式，用于指代个人所支持的对象。 像琼声这样的年轻人不在少数。他们通过买盲盒、收藏"吧唧"(英语"徽章"音译，为二次元圈层对徽章 类周边的俗称——记者注)、看演唱会等方式，放松心情、调节自我。 "工艺做得实在是太精致了。"珊瑚指着自己的藏品兴奋地说。25岁的珊瑚去南京旅行时，特意带了几枚 徽章，"就像把二次元的人物带进 ...

Core Insights - The "Guzi economy," referring to the consumption culture and economic model surrounding secondary dimension IP peripheral products, is projected to reach a market size of 168.9 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029 [2] Group 1: Market Overview - The "Guzi economy" is rapidly growing, with young consumers increasingly purchasing items like badges, standees, cards, and figurines, indicating a significant new consumption trend [2] - Concerns regarding the quality and safety of "Guzi" products have emerged, as there are reports of health issues linked to these items [2][5] Group 2: Quality Issues - There are widespread complaints about the quality of "Guzi" products, including issues like stains, paint peeling, severe color differences, and material shrinkage [3] - Some consumers have reported health symptoms, such as dizziness, potentially due to harmful substances like excessive formaldehyde in the products [3][5] Group 3: Sources of Poor Quality - Investigations reveal that substandard "Guzi" products often use unqualified materials and lack proper quality certifications, leading to safety risks [6][7] - The presence of harmful chemicals, such as plasticizers and heavy metals, in some products poses significant health risks, especially for children [7] Group 4: Sales and Regulation Challenges - There is a market for "three-no products" (no quality certification, no production license, no manufacturer information), which are still sold due to high demand among minors [8] - The lack of clear regulatory standards for new products, such as AI toys, creates a regulatory blind spot, complicating oversight [9] Group 5: Regulatory Actions - Regulatory bodies in regions like Zhejiang and Beijing are increasing oversight of "Guzi" products to ensure compliance with quality standards [11] - There is a call for the establishment of industry standards and regular inspections to ensure product safety in the rapidly expanding "Guzi economy" [10][11] Group 6: E-commerce and Consumer Awareness - E-commerce platforms are urged to enhance merchant vetting processes and require detailed production and quality assurance documentation from sellers [12] - Consumers are advised to be vigilant about product materials and manufacturers to avoid counterfeit and substandard products [12]

Core Concept - The "Guzi Economy" is emerging as a new consumption engine driven by the preferences of Generation Z, focusing on the consumption culture and economic model surrounding secondary IP-related products [2][3] Market Scale - The Guzi Economy is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size for secondary derivative products expected to reach 1.689 billion yuan in 2024, a 40.6% increase from 2023, and projected to exceed 3 billion yuan by 2029 [3] - The number of Guzi-related products sold online is expected to reach 17 million units in 2024, a nearly fivefold increase year-on-year [3] Product Demographics - The Guzi product categories are diverse, with badges being the most popular, accounting for approximately 40% of the market, followed by card products at 30-40% [4] - The consumer base is predominantly female (61.39%), with a significant portion of consumers aged 18-25, indicating a trend towards younger demographics [4] Driving Factors - The Guzi Economy benefits from the "lipstick effect" and "Disney effect," where low-cost, high-emotional-value products attract consumers [5] - The rise of domestic IP and the maturity of supply chains are crucial for the growth of the Guzi Economy, with local IPs increasingly surpassing Japanese counterparts [6] - The integration of online and offline sales channels is a significant factor in driving traffic and sales growth [5][6] Industry Chain - The Guzi Economy's industry chain is centered around IP development and operation, with domestic IPs gaining prominence [6][7] - The sales channels are diversified, including online platforms, social media, and offline stores, with over 3,239 Guzi stores across at least 39 cities in China [8] Competitive Landscape - The global Guzi Economy is thriving, with Japan leading the industry, but Chinese domestic IPs are increasingly competing and differentiating themselves in the international market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the booming second-hand trading market within the ACG (Anime, Comic, Game) community, highlighting the impulsive buying behavior and the subsequent need for selling items at a loss, driven by the popularity of various IPs and merchandise [4][6][62]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The second-hand market for ACG products has seen significant growth, with items experiencing drastic price fluctuations, such as a character figure dropping from 3000 yuan to hundreds within six months [4][6]. - The rise of IP economy has led to an increase in merchandise releases, with brands frequently launching new collaborations and products, creating a vibrant trading environment [6][7]. - The impulsive buying behavior is prevalent, with consumers often purchasing items at inflated prices during initial releases, only to later sell them at a loss on platforms like Xianyu [7][16]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers in the ACG community exhibit a "buy high, sell low" mentality, often relying on second-hand sales to recoup costs from impulsive purchases [16][34]. - The phenomenon of "blind box" purchases has become common, where consumers buy mystery boxes with uncertain outcomes, leading to increased spending driven by the thrill of potential high-value items [35][40]. - Social media platforms like Xiaohongshu play a crucial role in influencing consumer behavior, where users showcase their collections and engage in community discussions before making purchases on trading platforms [57][58]. Group 3: Platform Analysis - Xianyu remains the dominant platform for second-hand ACG transactions, boasting a user base of 105 million and a 75% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [53]. - The emergence of niche platforms like Qindao and Jihuan She caters to specific segments within the ACG community, offering tailored services and community engagement [52][51]. - Xiaohongshu has unexpectedly benefited from the trading boom, becoming a preferred platform for users to showcase and discuss their collections before transitioning to sales on Xianyu [57][58]. Group 4: Challenges and Concerns - The influx of underage users in the second-hand market has raised concerns about impulsive buying and refund requests, complicating transactions for sellers [58][59]. - Issues such as counterfeit products and the need for better regulatory measures have emerged as significant challenges for the trading platforms [60][61]. - The sustainability of the second-hand market is questioned, as it heavily relies on the ongoing popularity of ACG IPs, with potential risks if new hits do not emerge [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the "Guzi" economy, driven by multiple factors on both demand and supply sides, with a projected market size increase from 537 billion yuan in 2017 to 1689 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 17.79% [3][21] - The demand for "Guzi" products is expected to benefit from the rise of emotional consumption and changing consumer attitudes, particularly among younger demographics [12][56] Summary by Sections 1. Emotional Consumption Rise and Market Outlook - The "Guzi" economy is positioned within the broader context of the expanding ACGN subculture, which includes animation, comics, games, and related merchandise [12] - The market for the broader "pan-second dimension" and related products is projected to grow from 221.2 billion yuan in 2017 to 597.7 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 15.26% [12][19] 2. Demand Side Analysis - The user base for "pan-second dimension" products in China is substantial, with an expected growth to 503 million users by 2024, indicating a strong willingness to purchase "Guzi" products [2][42] - Approximately 88.71% of anime/manga viewers express a willingness to buy "Guzi," with 81.78% having made purchases [45][50] - The average single purchase amount for "Guzi" products is 102 yuan, with consumers increasing their purchase frequency from 2.3 to 2.9 times per month [62][64] - The market penetration in lower-tier cities is still low, presenting opportunities for expansion due to the price advantages of "Guzi" products [68][72] 3. Supply Side Analysis - The "Guzi" economy's supply chain encompasses IP production, authorization, and product sales, with a notable rise in domestic IPs stimulating consumer interest [73][76] - The domestic IP authorization market is growing, with retail sales of authorized products expected to reach 1550.9 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11% [86][90] - The report notes that the sales of domestic IPs have surpassed those of Japanese IPs on platforms like Xianyu, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [80][81]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and challenges in the "Guzi Economy," particularly focusing on the two-dimensional peripheral industry, highlighting both the flourishing of stores and the recent wave of closures [4][7][54]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The "Guzi Economy" is gaining momentum, driven by strong IPs like "Nezha: The Devil's Child" and a solid foundation laid in previous years [4]. - A surge in the number of "Guzi" stores has been observed across the country, with major chains like Pop Mart and Card Game Center expanding into lower-tier cities [4][10]. - Despite the growth, a wave of store closures has occurred, with nearly a hundred stores shutting down in the first three months of the year, indicating an inevitable industry adjustment after rapid expansion [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market features around 50 active two-dimensional peripheral brands, with leading companies like Pop Mart, Card Game Center, TOPTOY, and Trendy Planet holding a strong market position due to their extensive store networks [12][13]. - The top four brands have opened over 100 stores each, with Pop Mart and Card Game Center also utilizing vending machines to increase consumer access [15][16]. - Newer brands like Guzi House and March Beast have quickly established themselves, with March Beast achieving over 220 million yuan in sales in its first month [20]. Group 3: Investment Landscape - The investment landscape for two-dimensional peripheral brands is currently sparse, with only two new brands emerging in 2024: HEYZAKKA and MUMULAND [40][45]. - Investment activity has been limited, with only two notable financing events in 2024, indicating a cautious approach from venture capitalists [46][49]. - The market shows a preference for AI toys over traditional two-dimensional products, with several AI toy companies successfully securing funding [52][53]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The two-dimensional peripheral market is characterized by both opportunities and challenges, with established companies dominating and internet giants seeking to enter the space [54]. - A market adjustment is anticipated, which may lead to a new wave of growth for two-dimensional peripheral brands once weaker players are filtered out [54].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the rapid growth of the "Guzi economy," a derivative of the ACG (Animation, Comic, and Game) culture, which is becoming a new engine for economic growth in China, particularly in cities like Zhengzhou [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Guzi economy, which refers to merchandise related to IP (Intellectual Property) from the ACG culture, has seen a significant market expansion, with the market size projected to grow from 120.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, and potentially reaching 308.9 billion yuan by 2029 [1]. - The market was historically dominated by Japanese IPs, but the rise of domestic IPs like "Genshin Impact" and "Mo Dao Zu Shi" has shifted the market dynamics, increasing the share of domestic products [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The resurgence of the Guzi economy is linked to the social needs of ACG enthusiasts, leading to the establishment of dedicated stores and commercial spaces that cater to this demographic [3][9]. - The introduction of new product categories and collaborations with well-known brands has diversified the Guzi offerings, making them more integrated into everyday life [10]. Consumer Behavior - The primary consumers of Guzi products are fans of content-driven IPs, who view these products as emotional and social symbols, enhancing their identity and community belonging [9]. - The trend indicates a growing willingness among consumers to purchase practical items that also serve as expressions of their fandom, such as headphones and passport holders [10].

Core Insights - The "Guzi Economy," emerging from the secondary cultural derivatives of anime and gaming, is becoming a new engine for economic growth in Zhengzhou, driven by the central government's focus on boosting consumption [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Development - Zhengzhou is witnessing a rapid expansion of the "Guzi Economy," with major shopping centers like Daxinghai City and Xintian TK360 leading the way in attracting Guzi stores [5][8]. - The number of Guzi stores in Daxinghai City has reached approximately 50, primarily located on the first and second floors, indicating a significant concentration of this market [5][8]. - The overall Zhengzhou market is estimated to have over 100 Guzi stores, showcasing a multi-point flowering development pattern [8]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are drawn to Guzi products for their emotional and social value, with many expressing joy in collecting items like figurines and badges [10][11]. - Events such as character birthday celebrations attract hundreds of fans, highlighting the community aspect of the Guzi Economy [10][11]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The Guzi Economy is undergoing a competitive reshuffle, with many stores facing closure due to increased competition and a decline in IP popularity [11][13]. - In 2023, the highest monthly sales for a store in Daxinghai City dropped from over 500,000 yuan to around 200,000 yuan, reflecting the industry's challenges [11][13]. - The industry is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a more rational development stage, with a focus on differentiation and building competitive advantages [13][14].

Core Insights - The "Millet Economy" is transitioning from a niche market to a mainstream market, showing strong growth potential with a market size approaching 1.7 trillion yuan in 2024, expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025 [1][44] - The user base for the "Millet Economy" has reached 500 million, with Generation Z being the primary consumer group, and female consumers' share increasing significantly from 67% in 2023 to 78% in Q1 2025 [1][16] - The industry is characterized by a clear supply chain structure, with upstream focusing on IP development, midstream on production, and downstream on diversified sales channels including e-commerce and physical stores [1][19] Industry Definition - "Millet" refers to merchandise related to the two-dimensional culture, including various products derived from IP such as badges, standees, and paper products [5] Industry Development - The "Millet Economy" has evolved from relying on imported products to a robust domestic production model, with significant growth in local IP development since 2010 [8][9] - The market has seen a surge in innovative product forms like blind boxes and trendy toys, with companies like Pop Mart leading the way [8] Product Types - The most popular product type is badges, which dominate the second-hand market with a 64% share, followed by paper products at 19% and standees at 12% [10][11] Industry Scale - The market size of the "Millet Economy" is projected to grow significantly, with a 40% year-on-year increase expected in 2024, reaching nearly 1.7 trillion yuan [12][44] Industry Outlook - The low derivative product rate of domestic IP indicates substantial growth potential, with only 10% of film-derived income coming from merchandise compared to higher rates in the US and Japan [2][15][58] User Insights - The consumer demographic is predominantly female, with a notable increase in purchasing frequency and willingness to pay premiums for limited edition products [35][37] - Generation Z is a key driver of the market, with a significant portion of their spending directed towards "Millet" products, reflecting a shift towards emotional and social value in consumption [16][67] Industry Chain - The industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream IP development, midstream production, and downstream sales channels, with a focus on maximizing sales efficiency through a well-integrated supply chain [19][23]

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the "Goods Economy" driven by secondary IP derivatives, transitioning from niche markets to mainstream appeal, with a projected market size exceeding 2000 billion yuan by 2025 [1][2][47]. Industry Definition - "Goods" refers to secondary products related to two-dimensional culture, including badges, paper products, and standees, with the term "eating goods" denoting the purchase of these items [7]. Industry Development - The "Goods Economy" in China showcases a blend of cultural consumption and industrial upgrading, with a significant shift from overseas IP derivatives to domestic production, particularly in the last decade [10][11][12]. Product Types - Badges are the most popular product type, accounting for 64% of the second-hand market sales, followed by standees and other merchandise [13][15]. Market Size - The market size for the "Goods Economy" is expected to reach approximately 1689 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 40% [47]. Industry Outlook - The domestic IP derivative market is currently underdeveloped, with only 10% of film revenues coming from merchandise, indicating significant growth potential compared to mature markets like the US and Japan [22][48]. User Demographics - The core audience for the "Goods Economy" is primarily the Z generation, with a user base projected to reach 5 billion, and a notable increase in female consumers from 67% in 2023 to 78% in early 2025 [23][42]. Industry Chain - The industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream IP development, midstream production and design, and downstream sales channels, which include online platforms and physical stores [26][32][36]. Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces challenges such as homogenization, weak copyright protection, and dependency on IP, but also benefits from rapid market expansion and the rise of domestic IPs [2][45].