光伏主链盈利承压、减值改善，辅材业绩承压持续分化 --新能源行业24年及25Q1报告总结 ◆ 24年光伏板块收入同减21%，归母净利润同减118%；25Q1收入同减17%，归母净利润同减155%。光伏板块 2024年收入10143亿元，同比减少21%，归母净利润-208亿元，同比下降118%。24Q4光伏板块收入2552亿 元，同减22%，环增1%，归母净利润-252亿元，同减1046%，环减8091%。25Q1光伏板块收入1952亿元， 同减17%，环减24%，归母净利润-35亿元，同减155%，环增86%。 ◆ 25Q1主链减值减少环比改善，辅材业绩持续承压。25Q1归母净利润环比增速看：EPC(476%)>设备(284%)> 胶膜(278%)>支架(132%)>石英坩埚(117%)>其他辅材(96%)>玻璃(93%)>金刚线(88%)>电池(85%)>银浆 (66%)>硅片(58%)>组件(54%)>硅料(34%)>逆变器(8%)；归母净利同比增速看，逆变器(74%)>硅片(11%)> 支架(-18%)>EPC(-20%)>设备(-32%)>胶膜(-37%)>银浆(-38%)>石英坩埚(-73%)>玻璃 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price expected to yield over 20% relative return within six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.563 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.90% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.47% to 2.793 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of no less than 10% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company has made significant progress in project planning, which lays a foundation for sustainable development, including the approval of multiple power generation projects [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 145.63 billion yuan, with a decline in thermal power revenue by 4.45% to 77.55 billion yuan, while wind power revenue increased by 10.33% to 37.92 billion yuan [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 26.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased wind power utilization hours [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 30.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.31%, and a net profit of 7.52 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 42.83% [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 3 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 3.7 billion yuan [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 9, 8, and 7 times respectively [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total installed capacity reached 6.096 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.00 yuan, with a growth rate of 6.54% expected for 2025 [4][12]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 37.78% [6]. Market Position - The company operates in the public utility and power generation sector, with a focus on sustainable energy projects [5]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 26.97 billion yuan [6].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening on May 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.66%, and the ChiNext Index by 2% [1][5] - The total market turnover reached 866.5 billion yuan, an increase of 138.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,800 stocks rising [1][5] Sector Performance - The controllable nuclear fusion sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhongzhou Special Materials and Jiusheng Electric hitting the daily limit [3] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks also performed well, with companies such as Shenghe Resources and Tianhe Magnetic Materials reaching the daily limit [3] - The banking sector lagged behind, with stocks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank dropping over 3% [3] Key Concepts and Trends - The market is showing strong momentum, with a healthy price-volume relationship, indicating potential bullish trends [5] - The expectation of monetary easing measures, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, is contributing to market optimism [7][8] - The end of the annual report season has led to a cleansing of underperforming stocks, reducing the risk of unexpected losses for investors [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to recover steady growth in 2025, with a significant increase in energy storage sales [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.993 billion, a slight decrease of 1.63% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 344.22 million, down 32.75% year-on-year [1] - The company anticipates a 30% increase in shipments for the year, with energy storage business expected to double in growth [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 3.062 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.62% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 505.79 million, an increase of 46.94% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 4.08 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.55 [1] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 40.57% in 2025, down from 42.36% in 2024 [10]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.663 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.54%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 46.90% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of 0.47% [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 383 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.11% [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 73.76 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.34% [1] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 40.70% and 22.48%, respectively, both showing year-on-year improvements [2] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin and net margin were 37.68% and 19.16%, respectively, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline primarily due to changes in product structure [2] Business Growth - The company experienced high-quality growth in its three main business segments: magnetic powder cores, chip inductors, and soft magnetic powder, driven by strong demand in AI, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles [2] - Revenue from metal soft magnetic powder cores reached 1.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, solidifying the company's market leadership [2] - Chip inductors generated sales of 386 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 275.76%, indicating strong growth potential [2] - Revenue from metal soft magnetic powder was 399.4 million yuan, up 47.31% year-on-year, driven by demand from emerging applications [2] Project Development - The company announced plans to invest up to 100 million yuan to establish a high-end metal soft magnetic materials and magnetic components production base in Thailand [3] - A new project for high-end integrated inductors is planned with an investment of 454 million yuan, aimed at addressing capacity bottlenecks [3] - The company is also expanding its production capacity with a new modern powder production base expected to reach an annual capacity of 6,000 tons by 2025 [3] Investment Outlook - The company's core business in magnetic powder cores is positioned to benefit from the new energy sector and is extending its reach into the upstream chip inductor segment [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.08 billion yuan, 2.54 billion yuan, and 3.05 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 25.1%, 21.9%, and 20.5% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 451 million yuan, 558 million yuan, and 684 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.1%, 23.7%, and 22.6% respectively [4]

Overview - The BOPP capacitor film market in China is experiencing significant growth, with production expected to reach 193,900 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.60% [1][11] - Demand for BOPP capacitor film is projected to be 181,800 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.83% [1][11] - The market size is anticipated to reach 7.994 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 15.67% increase compared to the previous year [1][11] Development Background - Recent government policies have supported the development of the electronic industry, creating a favorable environment for the BOPP capacitor film sector [5] - The rapid growth of industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power has led to an increasing demand for capacitor films [5] - Rising household income levels are boosting consumer demand for various electronic products, further driving the growth of the BOPP capacitor film market [5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the BOPP capacitor film industry includes suppliers of polypropylene and additives, while the midstream involves the production of BOPP capacitor films [7] - The downstream market primarily consists of film capacitor manufacturing, with increasing applications in emerging fields like 5G communication and the Internet of Things [7] Current Market Status - The BOPP capacitor film market is closely tied to the film capacitor market, which is projected to reach a market size of 25.1 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 15.67% [9][11] - BOPP capacitor films are essential materials for film capacitors, which are widely used in various sectors including new energy vehicles and household appliances [9] Competitive Landscape - The BOPP capacitor film industry is characterized by high technical and equipment barriers, with a limited number of international equipment manufacturers [13] - Domestic companies have developed significant production scales and R&D capabilities, with key players including Hebei Haiwei Electronic New Materials, Zhejiang Dadongnan, and Aerospace Rainbow [13][16] - Hebei Haiwei is recognized as a leading company in the BOPP capacitor film sector, having developed ultra-thin capacitor films with advanced properties [14][16] Future Trends - The demand for high-end BOPP capacitor films, such as ultra-thin and high-temperature resistant types, is expected to grow as industries evolve [20] - Companies will increase R&D investments to enhance technology and develop products that meet high-end application requirements [20] - There will be a greater emphasis on green production practices and recycling of used capacitor films to promote sustainable development in the industry [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has turned from a loss to a profit in Q1 2025, with expectations for gradual improvement throughout the year [1] - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was approximately 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29%, but a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.01% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 106 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 86% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 137% [7] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the photovoltaic glass market due to its production capacity and ongoing overseas expansion [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 21.524 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 39.21% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is projected at 2.75969 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is estimated at 1.18 yuan per share [1] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2023A is 12.44 [1] Production and Market Position - As of April 2025, the company has a total production capacity of 19,400 tons per day, with ongoing projects in Vietnam and plans for new facilities in Indonesia [7] - The company’s market share, combined with its competitor, exceeds 50%, indicating a strong competitive advantage [7] Cost and Inventory Management - The company reported a decrease in inventory by approximately 15% as of Q1 2025 [7] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 167 million yuan, down from the previous year [7]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 中信博（688408） 2025 年一季报点评：在手订单充沛，海外优 势突出 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,390 | 9,026 | 11,255 | 13,775 | 16,405 | | 同比（%） | 72.59 | 41.25 | 24.69 | 22.39 | 19.10 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 345.04 | 631.52 | 832.75 | 1,059.09 | 1,282.01 | | 同比（%） | 676.58 | 83.03 | 31.86 | 27.18 | 21.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.58 | 2.89 | 3.81 | 4.85 | 5.87 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.47 | 16.10 | 12.21 | 9.60 | 7.93 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q1 2025, with revenue of 4.08 billion RMB, surpassing expectations of a loss, and achieving a profit of 106 million RMB compared to a loss of 289 million RMB in Q4 2024 [6][7]. - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass increased by 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, contributing to improved gross and net profit margins, which rose by 8.8 and 9.6 percentage points to 11.7% and 2.6%, respectively [6]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in profitability in Q2 2025, despite adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 15%, 10%, and 9% due to increased production from second and third-tier companies and the impact of tariffs on Vietnamese production [6][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21,524 million RMB in 2023, 18,683 million RMB in 2024, and 18,433 million RMB in 2025E, with a projected growth of 39.2% in 2023 followed by a decline of 13.2% in 2024 [5][12]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 2,760 million RMB in 2023 to 893 million RMB in 2025E, reflecting a significant drop of 63.4% in 2024 [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 21.8% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2025E, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [12][8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a strong rebound in photovoltaic glass prices, which have recently started to decline as inventory levels increase following a surge in demand due to new policies [6][8]. - The company’s production capacity in Vietnam is affected by "reciprocal tariffs," but the overall impact is deemed limited due to the ability to redirect exports to other countries [6][12]. - The anticipated increase in supply from June 2025 is expected to put pressure on glass prices, as the company has not yet confirmed the production timeline for its new capacity of 7,200 tons [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, upgraded from a previous "Hold" rating [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.391 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 508 million yuan, down 44.24% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 919 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.22% [1][2]. - The decline in net profit for 2024 was primarily due to intense industry competition and significant price reductions for some products, leading to a decrease in gross margin from 37.51% to 31.55% [2]. - The company is focusing on the new energy vehicle market, with IGBT and SiC modules seeing continuous growth. In 2024, the company delivered car-grade IGBT modules in large quantities to leading Tier 1 brands in Europe and secured multiple projects for IGBT/SiC MOSFET motor controllers [2][3]. - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 354 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.27%, aiming to expand into various fields and enhance its market presence [3]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.224 billion yuan, 5.086 billion yuan, and 6.202 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 514 million yuan, 727 million yuan, and 1.037 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s PE ratios for the next three years are projected to be 38x, 27x, and 19x, indicating a potential for growth despite the current challenges [3][4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, with forecasts of 32.3% in 2025 and 33.0% in 2026 [4].