每日市场观察 2025 年 7 月 4 日 【今日关注】 上午开盘后，中证全指震荡走弱；十一点后指数转升，最终收涨 0.60%。 成交量较前一交易日略有收缩，但仍处于六月以来的较高水平。两市 上涨家数超 3000 家，呈现出较为明显的普涨局面。本周进入半年报时 间窗口，中证全指走出震荡上行趋势，一定程度能够体现市场持续乐 观的投资情绪。 军工概念股有部分出现回调，但领涨龙头依然表现强势。由于阅兵日 期在九月，距今尚有两月的时间，因此军工概念短期内不大可能立刻 降温。消费电子今日涨幅领先，大概率与美国解除禁令的消息有关。 短期内，国产芯片可能会受到冲击，但长期来看，国产替代仍然是降 低风险的主要选择。 军工的热度有望延续，短线投资者可适当参与。解禁消息短期看是利 好，长期则需观察市场博弈情况。"十五五"计划会重点关注哪些领 域，市场现在已经开始探索。在正式文件发布之前，热门板块均有博 弈机会。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：7 月 3 日，市场全天震荡反弹，创业板指领涨。截至收盘， 沪指涨 0.18%，深成指涨 1.17%，创业板指涨 1.9%。 【消息面】 1.国家数据局局长刘烈宏：深化数据资源流通利用和数据要素市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent IPO applications of two domestic GPU companies, Moore Threads and Muxi, highlighting their potential and challenges in the competitive landscape of the GPU industry in China [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Moore Threads and Muxi submitted their IPO applications on June 30, marking a significant step towards their public listing [1]. - Both companies are led by experienced founders with backgrounds in major global tech firms, enhancing their credibility in the GPU market [1]. - Pre-IPO valuations for Moore Threads and Muxi are reported at 24.62 billion yuan and over 21 billion yuan, respectively [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Moore Threads' revenue projections from 2022 to 2024 are 46.08 million yuan, 124 million yuan, and 438 million yuan, with net losses of 1.84 billion yuan, 1.67 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan [2]. - Muxi's revenue for the same period is projected at 426,400 yuan, 5.3 million yuan, 74.3 million yuan, and 32 million yuan, with net losses of 777 million yuan, 871 million yuan, 1.41 billion yuan, and 233 million yuan [2]. - Combined, both companies have incurred total losses of 8.2 billion yuan over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The GPU industry is characterized by high R&D costs, with Moore Threads investing 3.81 billion yuan in R&D from 2022 to 2024, which is over six times its projected revenue [2]. - The current market environment presents a critical window for GPU companies to seek public listings, especially with recent reforms allowing unprofitable companies to go public [6]. Group 4: Product Development - Moore Threads has developed a comprehensive product line, including four generations of GPU architectures and various applications in AI computing, graphics rendering, and personal entertainment [8]. - Muxi focuses on training and inference integrated GPUs, with products based on self-developed GPU IP and instruction sets, enhancing efficiency and reducing dependency on external IP [11]. - Moore Threads' desktop GPU, MTT S80, is reported to perform comparably to NVIDIA's RTX 3060, although it still lags in driver support [10]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Both companies are positioned in the first tier of the domestic GPU market, but they face challenges in customer retention and dependency on key distributors [13][15]. - The ability to secure production capacity is a significant concern, as both companies rely on foundries for manufacturing, and recent regulations have limited their options [17].

先聊政策面。有两个信号特别关键：一是7月下旬的政治局会议临近，市场对稳增长政策的期待升温，尤其是科技（AI、半导体）和新消费（智能家居、服 务消费）可能成为政策催化的重点。二是特朗普政府取消了部分对华芯片设计软件出口限制，这对半导体行业是个实打实的利好，尤其是芯片设计公司，今 儿开盘可能会有反应。另外，超长期特别国债的增加和消费品以旧换新补贴的扩大，对消费电子板块也是个强心针，立讯精密、歌尔股份这些果链龙头最近 订单量明显在往上走。 技术面来看，昨天沪指缩量微涨0.18%，收在3461点，没能有效站稳3463点，而且15分钟级别MACD出现了顶背离，这得小心回踩3440 - 3450点的支撑。创 业板表现相对强势，日线MACD金叉，突破2150点后技术形态转强，如果量能配合，可能冲击2180 - 2200点区间。科创50指数昨天收了小阳线，但疑似下跌 中继形态，要是接下来两天不能拉出中大阳线，后市可能得谨慎。 资金动向方面，北向资金昨天沪股通净流入8.7亿，但深股通净流出32.3亿，显示外资对科技股还是有分歧。主力资金则明显在往高景气赛道集中，消费电子 和半导体分别净流入50.6亿和31.9亿，而汽车零部件、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies from Shanghai and the National Medical Insurance Administration signify a transformative shift in China's healthcare payment system from a "single cost control" model to a "multi-coordination" approach, which is expected to benefit innovative medical devices and pharmaceuticals significantly [1][2][12]. Policy Changes - Shanghai's new regulations allow high-priced innovative products to enter the medical insurance reimbursement framework after patients pay a certain percentage out-of-pocket, breaking the previous "solely centralized procurement" model for coronary stents [1][2]. - The National Medical Insurance Administration released two policy documents supporting the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, reinforcing the shift towards a multi-coordinated payment system [2][14]. Market Dynamics - The coronary stent market in China has completed domestic substitution due to multiple rounds of centralized procurement, and the new payment policies are expected to foster industry growth [4][10]. - The demand for coronary stents is projected to grow, driven by an aging population and changes in dietary habits, with the number of coronary artery disease patients expected to rise from 25.27 million in 2020 to 31.67 million by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 2.28% [5]. PCI Procedure Insights - Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a key treatment for coronary heart disease, with a significant gap in procedure penetration rates compared to the U.S. (690.9 procedures per million in China vs. 3022.1 in the U.S.) [7][9]. - The number of PCI cases in China grew by 26.44% in 2023, indicating a rising acceptance and demand for these procedures [7]. Competitive Landscape - Following centralized procurement, the domestic market for coronary stents has achieved an 80% localization rate, with leading domestic companies like MicroPort, Lepu, and Jiwei holding a combined market share of 45% [10][12]. - The policies encourage companies to focus on high-end innovation, with a shift from merely reducing prices to ensuring quality and sustainability in the industry [12][13]. Company Performance - MicroPort, a leading player in high-value medical consumables, has diversified its product lines across various medical fields and reported a research and development investment of $115 million in 2024, with expectations of revenue growth of 10%-11% in 2025 [15][16]. - The company anticipates a recovery in growth rates in the second half of 2025, with international business expected to grow by 80%, reaching over $170 million [16].

Core Viewpoint - The FFKM sealing ring industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by increasing downstream demand, technological advancements, and favorable policies, with the market expected to reach over 17.5 billion yuan by 2029, growing from 3.44 billion yuan in 2020 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.5% [1][9]. Industry Overview - FFKM sealing rings are high-performance sealing materials with excellent temperature resistance, chemical corrosion resistance, wear resistance, and tear strength, widely used in semiconductor, LCD panel, photovoltaic, aerospace, and oil and gas extraction industries [1][5]. - The FFKM sealing ring market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from 3.44 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.01 billion yuan in 2024, outpacing the global market growth rate of 9.37% [1][9]. Global Market - The global FFKM sealing ring market is also on an upward trend, with the market size expected to grow from 2.692 billion USD in 2019 to 4.408 billion USD in 2024, and projected to reach 6.878 billion USD by 2028 [7]. Domestic Market - In the domestic market, the semiconductor sector is the largest application area for FFKM sealing rings, accounting for 81% of the market share, with a market size of 5.68 billion yuan in 2024 [11]. - The growth in the domestic market is attributed to technological advancements and increased procurement from semiconductor equipment manufacturers and wafer fabs [13][20]. Competitive Landscape - The FFKM sealing ring market in China is currently dominated by foreign companies such as DuPont, GT, and PPE, but domestic companies like Chipmi Technology are making significant progress in technology and product quality, leading to a trend of domestic substitution [13][20]. - Chipmi Technology, a key player in the market, has seen its revenue grow from 41.59 million yuan in 2022 to 208 million yuan in 2024, indicating strong market performance [14]. Development Trends - The industry is focusing on green and sustainable development, with companies adopting bio-based materials and clean production processes to reduce environmental pollution [19]. - The trend of domestic substitution is expected to continue, with domestic companies increasing their market share as they improve product quality and performance [20]. - There is an acceleration in technological innovation and performance enhancement, driven by the growing demands of high-end manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace [21].

内容概要：硬脑（脊）膜补片是指用于硬脑膜和/或硬脊膜缺损暂时或永久性修补的片状材料类产品。 近几年来，随着人口老龄化程度的加深、脑血管疾病发病率的攀升、国民疾病认知水平提升，我国颅脑 肿瘤、颅脑创伤、脑出血等脑部疾病外科手术治疗选择率不断上升，带动硬脑（脊）膜补片应用需求持 续增加，行业规模再度进入增长通道。数据显示，2024年我国硬脑（脊）膜补片市场规模达到11.8亿 元，预计2029年将达到18.41亿元。 相关上市企业：冠昊生物（300238）；正海生物（300653）；迈普医学（301033）；佰仁医疗 （688198）等 相关企业：天新福（北京）医疗器材股份有限公司；深圳市沃尔德外科医疗器械技术有限公司；苏州希 普生物科技有限公司；北京桀亚莱福生物技术有限责任公司；重庆润泽医药有限公司；江西光至金辉医 疗制品有限公司；上海白衣缘生物工程有限公司；陕西佰傲再生医学有限公司等 关键词：产业链；硬脑（脊）膜补片行业规模；竞争格局；重点企业；发展趋势 一、行业概况 硬脑（脊）膜介于颅骨和脑组织之间，具有保护大脑、防止脑脊液漏出的作用，硬脑（脊）膜损伤会导 致脑脊液持续性漏出，进而引发脑膜炎、颅内感染等问题， ...

Group 1 - Recently, two medical devices from Suzhou have entered the national special approval channel for innovative medical devices, allowing for prioritized review and faster clinical application [1] - Suzhou has a total of 65 innovative medical devices in this fast-track approval process, accounting for 10% of the national total and 60% of Jiangsu province [1][2] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has announced that 14 innovative medical devices have been approved for special review, including a near-distance radiation therapy planning software and a catheter-based radiofrequency ablation system [1] Group 2 - The near-distance radiation therapy planning software is designed to dynamically guide equipment for improved treatment outcomes [1] - The catheter-based radiofrequency ablation system aims to address the treatment challenges of hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy and has received breakthrough device designation from the FDA [1] - The special review process for innovative medical devices is intended to accelerate the domestic replacement of high-end medical devices and break the import monopoly [1][2]

聚光科技子公司普育科技在质谱仪领域取得突破，值得关注；生产端耗 材方面，培养基赛道的奥普迈近年来切入管线项目数量快速增长，填料 赛道的纳微科技和赛分科技质地优良，值得重点关注。 策略对话医药：生命科学服务 - 医药领域上游"卡脖子" 环节 20250703 摘要 生命科学服务板块是生物科学领域的基础，其自主可控至关重要，但目 前国产替代率不足 30%，高端科研仪器领域甚至为 0%，与赛默飞、丹 纳赫等国际巨头相比，国内企业规模明显偏小。 实现国产替代需多方面入手，包括加强基础科学教育以提高高端人才培 养，以及通过中央政府的政策支持，将高端科研仪器设备研发制造纳入 国家规划。 国产企业需与上下游产业链形成正反馈，通过低端市场反馈加速产品升 级，进而突破高端市场。同时，国际贸易环境的不确定性也推动跨国企 业加快本地化供应链布局，带动国内产业发展。 生产端耗材的国产替代已在部分细分领域取得进展，但因其为创新药商 业化生产必需且不易更换的原材料，替代过程需从早期阶段逐步推进， 培育周期较长。 新冠疫情期间进口原材料供应链短缺加速了国产工业生产端耗材的替代， 促使药企在早期研发阶段倾向使用国产耗材，并在临床三期和商业化 ...

摘要 中国大陆半导体掩膜板市场规模约为 18 亿美元，年增速约 10%，国产 化率低于 5%，自主可控需求驱动未来增长，龙图光照有望受益于国产 替代。 龙图光照 2020-2024 年营收复合增速达 47%，2024 年营收近 2.5 亿 元，归母净利润 9,200 万元，复合增速 58%，毛利率稳定，净利润率 维持高位，估值相对较低。 公司股权集中，董事长、总经理及领导合计持股 57%，下游客户施兰控 股等参股，反映客户对公司技术实力认可，客户资源强大。 半导体掩膜板是光刻核心材料，价值量占比约 12%，为前道半导体材料 第三大领域，每款芯片均需一套掩膜板，保证生产工艺精度。 晶圆厂和 IDM 厂将成熟产线掩模板外包第三方以降低成本，第三方掩模 板厂具备规模效应，但 28 纳米以下先进制程仍依赖内部生产。 龙图光照主要覆盖 130 纳米及以上功率器件领域，客户包括中芯集成等， 计划拓展 90 纳米、65 纳米及更先进制程，初期重点仍是功率半导体。 公司木头项目主要用于购买设备，包括八台电子束直写光刻机，预计 2027 年下半年实现满负荷生产，2028 年营收有望达 8-9 亿，净利润 2.8-3.2 亿。 ...

康基医疗 20250703 摘要 全球微创外科耗材市场规模庞大，2024 年约为 320 亿美元，但年复合 增速仅为 5%，主要受欧美老龄化及欠发达地区开胸手术影响。中国市 场增速显著，预计未来五年复合增速达 12%，2024 年市场规模预计为 260 亿元，2028 年将达 407 亿元。 微创外科手术量在中国持续增长，预计从 2023 年的 1,400 万台增至 2028 年的 2,400 万台，耗材单价略有提升。集采政策导致穿刺器等产 品价格大幅下降，外资企业因成本压力退出，为康基等国产企业提供了 巨大的替代空间。 康基医疗的市场份额显著提升，从 2019 年的 2%-3%增长至 2023 年 的 14%左右，受益于国产替代加速。国际巨头如美敦力因成本问题退出 部分产线，其原副总裁也转投康基，进一步增强了康基的竞争力。 康基医疗在一次性穿刺器、高分子结扎夹、电凝钳等领域占据领先地位， 并积极拓展超声刀、吻合器和缝线等产品线。同时，康基也在腹腔机器 人领域进行布局，其子公司正在开发相关产品。 Q&A 康基作为中国微创耗材的龙头企业，在手术机器人领域的发展前景如何？ 康基发布了其第一款腹腔镜手术机器人，预计 ...