市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.68%，深成指收 跌 1.62%，创业板指收跌 1.92%。沪深两市成交额 11522.45 亿元；申 万行业方面，美容护理、煤炭、公用事业领涨，计算机、通信、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，NMN 概念、合成生物、宠物经济概念涨幅居前， 华为盘古、DRG/DIP、华为昇腾概念跌幅居前；港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.79%，恒生科技指数收跌 1.56%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指收涨 0.65%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收跌 0.18%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会】国务院总理李强在会上强 调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在 做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国 际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 【我国城市更新顶层设计出台】中办、国办近日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].

美联储主席鲍威尔在演讲中表示，随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高。他警告称："我们 可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、可能更持久的时期——这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑 战。"美联储将重新审视政策框架。 美国与卡塔尔签署超2435亿美元经济及军事合作协议。卡塔尔投资局计划在未来十年内向美国追加5000 亿美元的投资。 特朗普：希望苹果停止将iPhone产业转移到印度。 李强：把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 美股方面，三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.65%，标普500指数涨0.41%，纳指跌0.18%。 大型科技股多数下跌，亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%，苹果、英伟达、谷歌小幅下跌；奈飞涨 超2%，微软、英特尔小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.37%。网易大涨超14%，股价逼近历史新高；向上 融科跌超8%，阿里巴巴、文远知行跌逾7%，富途控股跌超5%，京东、百度、蔚来跌逾3%。 | | | 隔夜美股概览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 道琼斯 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to stabilize and promote long-term economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce urges the U.S. to correct its restrictive measures on Chinese chips, asserting that such actions hinder sustainable cooperation between enterprises [3] - The Ministry of Commerce reiterates that all parties involved in the sale of the port by CK Hutchison must not evade regulatory scrutiny, highlighting the importance of fair market competition [4] Group 2 - Bridgewater's latest holdings report reveals significant changes, including a substantial increase in positions in Alibaba and a new investment in JD.com, while reducing its stake in Nvidia [6] - The Federal Reserve is reassessing its policy framework to adapt to post-pandemic inflation dynamics, with potential adjustments expected to be announced in August or September [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on the use of raised funds by listed companies, emphasizing dedicated use for core business and supporting the real economy [8] Group 3 - Alibaba's latest financial report shows a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 7% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA rising by 36% [21][22] - Xiaomi announces the upcoming release of its self-developed SoC chip named "Xuanjie O1," which is expected to enhance mobile performance [20] - Wahaha responds to production issues due to capacity constraints, indicating adjustments in production and outsourcing to meet market demands [23][24]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, indicating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that there is a need to reconsider the language around labor market slack and average inflation rates, with an expectation that April PCE will drop to 2.2% [8] - Coinbase reported that customer data was compromised, and the company rejected a $20 million ransom from hackers, while the SEC is investigating its alleged misreporting of user numbers [10] - Alibaba's fourth fiscal quarter revenue reached 236.45 billion yuan, and the company plans to distribute $4.6 billion in dividends, while also forecasting that profits may be impacted by investments in instant retail [10] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 0.65%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.18% [4] - European stock indices experienced gains, with Germany's DAX 30 rising by 0.72% and the UK's FTSE 100 increasing by 0.57% [4] - The Hong Kong stock market faced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.79% at 23,453.16 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 1.56% [4]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. misuse of export control measures against Huawei's Ascend chips, stating that it will take resolute measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [3] - Alibaba reported a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for the fourth fiscal quarter and announced a dividend of 4.6 billion USD, while forecasting that profits from Taobao and Tmall may be impacted by investments in instant retail [3] International News - Japan is seeking to hold a third round of trade negotiations with the U.S. next week, while the U.S. is considering modifying the U.S.-Japan trade agreement. The EU and the U.S. will accelerate trade negotiations, with the EU hoping for a greater reduction in tariffs compared to the UK [4] - Coinbase reported that customer data was compromised and rejected a 20 million USD ransom from hackers, while the SEC is investigating the company for allegedly misreporting user numbers [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, stating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that the wording regarding employment shortfalls and average inflation rates needs to be reconsidered. The April PCE is expected to drop to 2.2% [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly raised its forecast for average oil demand growth in 2025 to 740,000 barrels per day and adjusted the supply growth expectation to 1.6 million barrels per day [6]

Overnight Market - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.41%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.37% [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation may become more volatile, presenting challenges for the economy and the central bank [2] - International gold prices rebounded, with spot gold up 1.98% to $3,239.63 per ounce [2] - International oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude down 2.31% to $61.69 per barrel [2] Domestic Economic Initiatives - The State Council emphasized strengthening domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties and promote high-quality development [3] - The central government will support urban renewal actions through diversified financing methods and encourage local governments to increase fiscal investment [4] Health Sector Investigation - The National Health Commission reported on the investigation of a medical professional involved in a public incident, resulting in severe penalties [5] Financial Regulation - The Supreme Court and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued guidelines to strictly regulate securities enforcement to avoid illegal stock reductions [6] Technology and Finance Collaboration - The People's Bank of China and other departments held a meeting to enhance support for technological innovation through financial mechanisms [7] Financial Market Opening - The People's Bank of China announced plans to enrich the "Swap Connect" product types to promote high-level financial market opening [8] Trade Relations and Export Controls - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to US export control measures against Huawei's Ascend chips, asserting the need to protect Chinese enterprises' rights [9] Corporate Developments - Alibaba reported a 18% increase in cloud revenue, driven by strong AI demand, with core business growth accelerating [15] - Wahaha addressed media concerns regarding production adjustments and labor disputes, stating that it is optimizing production capacity [17] - Pony.ai announced plans to eliminate safety drivers in its autonomous taxi fleet and aims to deploy thousands of vehicles within three years [18][19] - General Motors confirmed restructuring its high-end import vehicle platform in response to changing economic conditions [22] - Apple faced pressure from former President Trump to halt its manufacturing plans in India [23] - Huawei announced the upcoming launch of new products featuring its HarmonyOS [24] - Xiaomi is set to release its self-developed mobile SoC chip "Xuanjie O1" later this month [25]

5. 俄乌会谈-俄代表团抵达土耳其准备讨论妥协方案，泽连斯基据悉不会与其会面。特朗普：如果合适 将于周五前往土耳其参加俄乌会谈；在普京与我会面之前，任何事情都不会发生；我不去普京也不会 去。克宫：普京目前没有前往土耳其的计划；未做普京与特朗普会唔的准备。泽连斯基：在技术层面达 成停火协议，就可以跳过与普京的会晤。 6. 美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架，零利率下限已不再是一个基本情况，需要 重新考虑就业不足和平均通胀率的措辞，预计4月PCE降至2.2%。 1. 李强在做强国内大循环工作推进会上强调，把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 2. 商务部：长和集团出售港口交易各方不得规避审查。 3. 自2025年6月1日起至2026年5月31日，中国对巴西等5国试行免签政策。 4. 央行：拟进一步丰富"互换通"产品类型，延长利率互换合约期限至30年。 5. 央行等四部门联合召开科技金融工作交流推进会，全方位支持科技创新。 6. 商务部：中美双方将依据中美日内瓦会谈共识，就经贸领域各自关切保持沟通。 7. 最高法、证监会：对于"小作文"损害他人权益且构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。 8. ...

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis is on strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable and sustainable economic growth, aligning with Xi Jinping's economic thought and the decisions of the Central Committee [2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Circulation Strategy - The focus is on enhancing domestic demand and internal circulation as unique advantages of a large economy, aiming to counter uncertainties in international circulation [3]. - The strategy involves four key aspects: efficient allocation of resources, deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, self-sufficiency in industrial and supply chains, and dynamic balance between supply and demand [3]. Group 2: Economic Support Measures - There is a call to address key issues and weaknesses that restrict economic circulation, including support for foreign trade enterprises and stabilizing employment, particularly for graduates and migrant workers [4]. - Efforts to boost consumption include upgrading major consumption sectors and stimulating service consumption, alongside expanding effective investment and promoting private investment [4]. - The importance of fostering local development highlights the need for technological innovation and brand creation based on regional resources [4].

以下为晚报正文： 1、李强：把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举 重要程度：★★★★★ 5月15日，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会。李强指出，内需为主导、内部可循环是大国经济的独 有优势。要围绕加快构建新发展格局，把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，不断提升经济循环的质量 和层次。 做强国内大循环重点要体现在四个方面：一是资源要素的高效配置；二是科技创新和产业创新的深度融 合；三是产业链供应链的自主完备；四是供给和需求的动态平衡。 2、中办、国办：推进城镇老旧小区整治改造 重要程度：★★★★ 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》。《意见》明确提到，到2030 年，城市更新行动实施取得重要进展，城市更新体制机制不断完善，城市开发建设方式转型初见成效，安 全发展基础更加牢固，服务效能不断提高，人居环境明显改善，经济业态更加丰富，文化遗产有效保护， 风貌特色更加彰显，城市成为人民群众高品质生活的空间。 重点任务方面，《意见》首先提到，强既有建筑改造利用。稳妥推进危险住房改造，加快拆除改造D级危 险住房，通过加固、改建、重建等多种方式，积极稳妥实施国有土地上C级危险住房和国 ...