免责声明: | | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 华东液化 | | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷 | CP预测合 | | | 纸面进口 | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 气 | 山东液化气 | 南 | 本 | 现货 | 同价 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 利润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/04/2 8 | 5130 | 4880 | 4830 | 633 | 534 | 96 | 591 | 4960 | 8000 | -148 | 571 | | 2025/04/2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9 | 5090 | 4925 | 4830 | 618 | 512 | 98 | 575 | 4920 | 7900 | -57 | 626 | | 2025/04/3 0 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The spot price of container shipping in the second half of May is basically the same as that in the first half. The supply pressure may increase due to the re - allocation of vessels from the US route. The June freight rate contract is likely to remain weak, while the August peak - season contract may be boosted by improved sentiment. It is recommended to participate based on short - term oversold rebound and pay attention to the progress of talks [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The online quotes for the second half of May are basically flat compared to the first half. The lowest price for Maersk's large container is $1480, and in the first half, the price was $1647 due to better demand. Other airlines' prices are mostly in the range of $1650 - $2000 [8]. - Supply: Affected by the sharp decline in US - route demand, airlines are re - allocating vessels to other routes, increasing supply pressure, especially in late May [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Although there is a short - term relaxation in Sino - US relations, it will still take a long time to reach an agreement. The June freight rate contract is hard to reverse its decline, while the August peak - season contract may be more positively affected. It is advisable to focus on short - term oversold rebounds and monitor the progress of talks [8]. 2. Industry News - Market in late April: From April 28th to 30th, the China Export Container Shipping Market declined slightly. Transport demand was weak before the holiday, and most route freight rates fell, dragging down the composite index [9]. - Manufacturing PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in April was 49, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [9]. - European Route: The eurozone's April composite PMI was 50.1, slightly above the boom - bust line, mainly dragged down by the service industry. The future European economic outlook is uncertain due to tariff issues [9]. - North American Route: In March, the US merchandise trade deficit reached $162 billion, a record high. The consumer confidence index in April continued to decline. The North American route's transport demand remained low, and the spot booking price increased slightly [10]. - Diplomatic News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant from May 9th to 12th at the US request. China firmly opposes US tariff abuse and advocates equal and reciprocal dialogue [10]. - Other News: Talks on a Gaza cease - fire are close to completion. The US plans to charge additional fees for Chinese ships docking at US ports. Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | May 4, 2025 | April 28, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1379.07 | 1429.39 | - 50.32 | - 3.5% | | SCFIS: US - West Route (Base Ports) | 1320.69 | 1230.28 | 90.41 | 7.3% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1312.2 | 1325.0 | 1288.2 | 1331.4 | - 24.0 | - 1.83 | 53581 | 39510 | 3642 | | EC2508 | 1503.6 | 1560.0 | 1559.6 | 1595.5 | 56.0 | 3.72 | 39237 | 36138 | 3696 | | EC2510 | 1272.4 | 1259.9 | 1287.9 | 1311.8 | 15.5 | 1.22 | 11837 | 17426 | 1332 | | EC2512 | 1457.6 | 1439.4 | 1460.7 | 1481.4 | 3.1 | 0.21 | 1893 | 4091 | 101 | | EC2602 | 1297.0 | 1263.8 | 1291.4 | 1317.2 | - 5.6 | - 0.43 | 982 | 2735 | 132 | | EC2604 | 1192.2 | 1166.0 | 1182.6 | 1194.0 | - 9.6 | - 0.81 | 849 | 1144 | 372 | [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European - route futures, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base - port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][19][20]

金十图示：2025年05月07日（周三）美盘市场行情一览 | 现货铂金 XPTUSD | 988.120 | +1.100 | +0.11% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货钮金 XPDUSD | 979.547 | +6.822 | +0.70% | | 黄金(COMEX) GC | 3401.300 | -40.500 | -1.18% | | 白银(COMEX) SI | 32.980 | -0.455 | -1.36% | FOREIGN EXCHANGE 欧元/美元 1.135 -0.11% EURUSD 英镑/美元 1.336 -0.06% GBPUSD 美元/日元 III +0.62% 143.273 USDJPY 澳元/美元 -0.42% 0.647 AUDUSD 美元/瑞郎 0.822 +0.04% USDCHF | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.598 | -0.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ... | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | 191.419 | +0.56% | | | | 虚拟货币 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The silicon market is currently experiencing a stalemate with no transactions reported for rod silicon, while the price for n-type granular silicon has decreased by 2.70% compared to the previous week [1] Industry Summary - No transactions have occurred in the rod silicon market this week, indicating a lack of activity and potential market stagnation [1] - The price range for n-type granular silicon is reported between 35,000 to 37,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 36,000 yuan per ton [1] - Due to the extreme market conditions, some polysilicon companies are considering advancing their scheduled maintenance from the third quarter to the second quarter, or may adjust their operational load based on actual order conditions [1]

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煤炭 2025 年 5 月 7 日 潞安环能(601699.SH) 煤价下行至底部区间，静待耗煤旺季拐点来临 推荐（维持） 股价：10.97 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 煤炭 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.luanhn.com | | 大股东/持股 | 山西潞安矿业集团 / 61.44% | | 实际控制人 | 山西省国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | -- | | 总市值（亿元） | 328 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 328 | | 每股净资产(元) | 15.79 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.27 | 行情走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 潞安环能 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潞安环能(601699.SH)公司首次覆盖报告：资金 增厚 债务收窄，价有弹性量增可期》2024-11-18 ...

煤炭 2025 年 5 月 7 日 潞安环能(601699.SH) 煤价下行至底部区间，静待耗煤旺季拐点来临 推荐（维持） 股价：10.97 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 煤炭 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.luanhn.com | | 大股东/持股 | 山西潞安矿业集团 / 61.44% | | 实际控制人 | 山西省国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | -- | | 总市值（亿元） | 328 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 328 | | 每股净资产(元) | 15.79 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.27 | 行情走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 潞安环能 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潞安环能(601699.SH)公司首次覆盖报告：资金 增厚 债务收窄，价有弹性量增可期》2024-11-18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's coal production was 57.57 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, and coal sales were 52.25 million tons, down 5.0% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 645.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the sales cost increased to 390.76 yuan/ton, up 43.1 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for coal mining was 39.48%, down 12.74 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.968 billion yuan, down 19.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 48.95% year-on-year [1][3] Production and Sales - The company has 18 operational mines with an advanced capacity of 49.7 million tons/year and plans for additional capacity of approximately 8.5 million tons/year [3] - In Q1 2025, coal production slightly increased to 13.57 million tons, up 2.49% year-on-year, while coal sales were 11.87 million tons, up 0.51% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 542.8 yuan/ton, down 146.6 yuan/ton year-on-year, with a sales cost of 340.2 yuan/ton, down 37.6 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading producer of injection coal in China, maintaining relatively stable production and sales amid a challenging coal market [4] - Current coal prices are at a low point, with potential for recovery as summer demand increases and inventory levels decrease [4] - The company has improved its financial structure and cash flow, providing support for potential acquisitions and capacity expansion [4] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.754 billion yuan for 2025, 3.251 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.592 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 11.9, 10.1, and 9.1 respectively [4]

金十图示：2025年05月07日（周三）亚盘市场行情 | 现货铂金 XPTUSD | 984.060 | -2.960 | -0.30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货钮金 XPDUSD | 969.731 | -2.994 | -0.31% | | 黄金(COMEX) GC | 3376.800 | -65.000 | -1.89% | | 白银(COMEX) SI | 33.105 | -0.330 | -0.99% | FOREIGN EXCHANGE | | 欧元/美元 | 1.134 | -0.28% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EURUSD | | | | | 英镑/美元 GBPUSD | 1.334 | -0.18% | | E | 美元/日元 USDJPY | 143.055 | +0.47% | | | 澳元/美元 AUDUSD | 0.649 | -0.06% | | = | 美元/瑞郎 USDCHF | 0.827 | +0.57% | | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.600 | -0.05% | | --- ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) increased by $23.140, or 2.40%, reaching $985.970 [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) rose by $20.237, or 2.15%, to $962.500 [2] - Gold (COMEX) saw an increase of $57.300, or 1.71%, reaching $3400.800 [2] - Silver (COMEX) increased by $0.720, or 2.20%, to $33.395 [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) rose by 0.27% to 1.135 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) increased by 0.67% to 1.338 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) decreased by 0.73% to 142.642 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) increased by 0.06% to 0.647 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) rose by 0.24% to 0.824 [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) decreased by $781.000, or 0.82%, to $93952.680 [4] - Litecoin (LTC) fell by $1.420, or 1.71%, to $81.830 [4] - Ethereum (ETH) dropped by $51.990, or 2.86%, to $1768.200 [4] - Ripple (XRP) decreased by $0.032, or 1.49%, to $2.099 [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.803% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.934%, with a slight decrease of 0.009% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.354%, increasing by 0.011% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.863%, increasing by 0.034% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.591%, increasing by 0.092% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.551%, increasing by 0.031% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.274%, increasing by 0.036% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.648%, increasing by 0.032% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.270%, decreasing by 0.011% [7]