分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3,870.28 | 1.19 | | 深证成指 | 13,224.51 | 2.40 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,579.88 | 1.83 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 4,441.29 | 1.74 | | 中证 500 | 7,137.83 | 1.95 | | 中证 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 2000 | ...

在行情短线切换剧烈的背景下，部分基金的 减仓 或调仓的动作随之显现，部分产品在震荡市中波动有限， 不难推测有的基金经理"见好就收"， 减仓 保存年内收益，也有基金经理旗下产品与三季度重仓风格背道而 驰，或调仓布局跨年行情。 对于后市行情，基金经理多数保有乐观展望。有基金经理表示，估值偏高后的调整对市场是健康的，为后续行 情"跌出"新的操作空间，此外还有不少高位股通过震荡夯实了基础，也会考虑重新买入。 部分基金疑似 减仓 保收益 以广发鑫益为例，12月16日，A股各大指数大幅回调，然而该基金跌幅仅0.22%。拉长时间来看，这只产品在 相当长的时间里净值表现非常平稳，自从10月27日创下历史新高后至今回撤幅度仅有2.57%，与三季报中的持 仓数据并不契合。数据显示，截至三季度末，该基金股票仓位超过了九成，且重仓股中包括了立讯精密、兆易 创新、天孚通信、中际旭创等高弹性个股，此外，基金经理费逸管理的广发聚瑞、广发瑞安精选等与广发鑫益 均有类似走势。 此外，益民基金旗下多只权益类产品在10月末至今波动均不如此前明显，个别产品近期净值甚至拉成了一条直 线。如益民服务领先的基金经理关旭就在三季报中表示："从市场情绪来看， ...

12月以来，在行情短线切换剧烈的背景下，部分基金的降仓或调仓动作明显，也有基金经理旗下产品与 三季度重仓风格背道而驰，或调仓布局跨年行情。 对于后市行情，基金经理多数持乐观展望。有基金经理表示，估值偏高后的调整对市场是健康的，为后 续行情跌出新的操作空间，另外还有不少高位股通过震荡夯实了基础，也会考虑重新买入。 年末部分基金降低仓位 以广发鑫益为例，在12月16日指数重挫的交易日中，该基金跌幅仅为0.22%，拉长时间来看，这只产品 在相当长的时间里净值表现非常平稳，自从10月27日创下历史新高后至今回撤幅度仅有2.57%，与三季 报中的持仓数据并不契合。截至三季度末，该基金股票仓位超过了九成，且重仓股中包括立讯精密 （002475）、兆易创新（603986）、天孚通信（300394）以及中际旭创（300308）等高弹性个股。此 外，基金经理费逸管理的广发聚瑞、广发瑞安精选等与广发鑫益均有类似走势。 灵活配置型基金更显"灵活" 值得注意的是，前述基金多为灵活配置型基金，某公募投研人士介绍，相较于普通股票型基金需严格遵 循基金契约、维持不低于80%股票仓位的要求，灵活配置型基金在仓位管理上具备显著的灵活调整空 间 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The computer industry is expected to see overall performance improvement in 2025, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth, primarily due to cost-cutting measures by software companies [1][4][5] - Large-cap companies are performing better than small and mid-cap companies, demonstrating stronger cyclical resilience and earlier recovery times [1][5] - Public fund holdings in the computer sector are approximately 2.6%, indicating a significant underweight position compared to the standard allocation of 5% to 6% [1][6] AI Technology and Market Trends - AI technology is entering enterprise-level applications and integrating with software, which is expected to create a long-term bullish market lasting 2 to 3 years, although the exact timing remains uncertain [1][7] - Deepseek is driving AI technology development with its free and open-source model, offering a cost of $1-2 per million tokens, significantly lower than competitors like OpenAI and Gemini [1][8] - GPT-5.2 Pro is positioned for the enterprise market, priced at $168 per million tokens, making it suitable for large enterprises and significantly reducing costs in legal services [1][10][11] Market Dynamics and Financial Performance - The overall return in the computer sector is expected to be in the mid-range of 10% to 15%, with some stocks potentially reaching returns of 40% to 60%, although operational challenges remain [3] - The AI computing power industry chain is anticipated to face supply shortages in various segments, particularly in storage and optical components [4][27] - The rapid growth in token consumption is expected to drive demand for computing cards by 3 to 5 times [2][19] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The scaling law remains effective, with North American cloud vendors expected to reach a peak in capital expenditure in 2025 and 2026, while China will follow a year later [1][18] - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion RMB in computing power over the next three years, potentially increasing investment to ensure sustained growth [1][18] - The enterprise-level AI deployment is rapidly advancing, with significant cost reductions in private deployments [1][16] Emerging Technologies and Innovations - The development of domestic chips is progressing, with new generations supporting FP8 precision, marking a significant year for domestic computing cards in large model inference [4][20] - The AI programming landscape is seeing AI-generated code accounting for 30% to 40% of total code volume, impacting the IT industry significantly [15] - Liquid cooling technology is at a pivotal point, with expectations for market share growth and improved profitability for companies involved [36] Future Outlook - The AI computing power industry is expected to remain in a high-growth phase, with demand outpacing supply in 2026, particularly in optical components [27] - The integration of AI technologies into various sectors is anticipated to drive significant changes and create new investment opportunities [24] - The IDC industry is facing challenges due to pricing pressures from excess supply but is seeing strong demand growth, particularly in the domestic market [37] Conclusion - The computer and AI sectors are poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and market dynamics, with investment opportunities emerging in various segments, particularly in enterprise applications and computing power infrastructure [1][24][27]

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry chain is experiencing a surge in investment sentiment, particularly in optical module stocks, leading to significant gains in related companies and ETFs [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Optical module stocks, particularly leading companies like LianTe Technology and XinYiSheng, saw substantial price increases, with LianTe Technology hitting a 20% limit up and XinYiSheng rising over 9% to a new closing high [1][2][7]. - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) also performed well, rising 5% with a trading volume of 779 million yuan and a net subscription of 162 million units in a single day [2][8]. Group 2: Industry Drivers - The demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to grow significantly, driven by the needs of high-performance GPUs from companies like Moer Thread and Muxi Co., which are essential for AI training and inference scenarios [4][9]. - LightCounting predicts that the global optical module market could exceed $37 billion by 2029, with 800G module shipments expected to reach 18-19 million units by 2025, doubling year-on-year [4][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The optical module and related supply chain are anticipated to enter a new growth phase, with significant infrastructure investments expected to continue, particularly in North America [10]. - The ChiNext AI ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, focusing on leading optical module companies, with over 70% of its portfolio allocated to computing power and over 20% to AI applications [10].

得注意的是，中国上榜企业呈现多元发展特征，金融服务、能源和消费品三大行业稳居前列，宁德时代领衔全球 储能行业，小米跻身消费电子领域全球领先阵营，腾讯、字节跳动则与国际巨头共同主导全球娱乐行业发展，在 多个细分领域占据全球领先地位。 本次榜单还呈现出诸多值得关注的行业与区域趋势：从行业分布来看，金融服务以 249 家上榜企业居首，能源 （119 家）、生命健康（73 家）紧随其后，而人工智能相关领域的企业价值增长最为显著，目前榜单上已有 11 家 价值万亿美元的人工智能相关企业，远超 2020 年的 4 家；从城市维度来看，北京以 53 家上榜企业的规模蝉联全 球第一，较上年新增 5 家，东京（47 家）与纽约（40 家）分列二三位，上海（16 家）、深圳（15 家）、孟买 （17 家）等亚洲金融中心通过显著的价值增长巩固了自身地位；从企业属性来看，千强企业中有 10% 为非上市 公司，OpenAI、字节跳动、SpaceX 等成为全球最具价值的未上市企业代表，展现了非上市企业在创新领域的强 劲活力。 此外，榜单还反映出全球企业价值创造的 "头部聚集" 特征：价值超 1000 亿美元的企业从 5 年前的 115 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Global Traders Conference and the 7th National Futures Trading Competition Award Ceremony were held, focusing on the transformation of the capital market and the importance of companies that can adapt to the new global industrial and financial order [1][2] - The chief economist of Zhongjia Fund, Deng Haiqing, emphasized that the core trend of China's economic transition towards high-end manufacturing and technological innovation is clear, and companies that can represent China in this new order will become valuable assets [1] - Ping An Fund's equity investment manager, Zhou Sicong, highlighted that sectors like AI, computing power, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals are at a critical moment, with the Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry expected to experience a beta market in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Li Chenyang, director of Ping An Futures Research Institute, noted that the long-term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, and the pressure on bulk commodities is easing due to economic transformation and policy guidance [2] - The changing political and economic landscape has led traders to seek assets that can provide hedging, as traditional assets no longer meet their needs [2] - Participants shared their experiences and strategies, emphasizing the importance of flexible tool application and long-term investment principles in navigating market volatility [2][3] Group 3 - Nearly 500 traders attended the conference, aiming for collaborative evolution in trading practices [3] - Ping An Futures is committed to customer-centric risk management services, adapting to market changes while creating value for clients [3]

Market Performance - The market experienced a significant increase in the afternoon, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a transaction volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.39%. The computing power sector saw substantial gains, with the communication ETF rising by 5.56% and the AI ETF on the ChiNext increasing by 5.10% [1]. Factors Driving the Increase - Following the release of Google's Gemini 3 series models, market expectations for computing power in 2026 have risen. In addition to GPUs, ASICs are becoming a significant incremental component in upstream computing chips, which may continue to drive the acceleration of optical modules and other accessories [2]. - Concerns about Japan's interest rate hikes affecting global market liquidity have eased. Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masazumi Wakatabe, indicated that Japan must enhance its neutral interest rate through fiscal policy and growth strategies. While a rise in the neutral rate could lead to natural interest rate hikes, the Bank of Japan should avoid premature tightening of monetary policy [2]. Future Outlook - The demand for computing power is expected to continue growing, particularly in the training segment, with projections for increased requirements in 2024. The performance breakthroughs of Google's Gemini 3 Pro have exceeded expectations, challenging previous beliefs about diminishing returns in pre-training. Major model manufacturers are expected to invest more in pre-training [3]. - Innovations in video models, such as Google's use of autoregression for generating images and videos, may enhance content consistency and could be adopted industry-wide. The inference segment of large models is already demonstrating significant utility, with advanced overseas models typically offering both standard and premium versions, indicating substantial scaling potential in inference [3]. - By 2026, computing power is anticipated to remain one of the most promising sectors in technology. Google's comprehensive AI ecosystem and decades of development may accelerate advancements in the AI industry, with computing chips still in an upward trend. Although there are currently no blockbuster AI applications, large models are enhancing traditional business growth for cloud providers, which have shown high performance since 2023. This revenue growth may support ongoing capital expenditures without excessive concerns in the short to medium term [4]. Investment Focus - The optical module market is expected to double in size by 2026, with continued high growth rates anticipated beyond 2027. The communication ETF is highlighted as a key area of interest, as it holds core stocks from the overseas computing power industry chain, with optical modules, servers, optical fibers, and copper connections making up over 76% of its components. This ETF is seen as a good representation of the fundamental performance of the overseas computing power sector, suggesting a strategy of continued attention and opportunistic investments [4][5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has been reignited by technology stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.39% [1] - There is a coexistence of weak index performance and strong structural excitement in the market, indicating a complex investment environment as the year-end approaches [1][6] Group 2: Tesla and SpaceX Developments - Tesla's stock price has rebounded significantly after a 36% drop in the first quarter, reaching a new closing high of $489.88, up 3.1% recently [3] - Elon Musk's wealth has surged, making him the first person in history to surpass $600 billion, currently at $684.2 billion, with projections for SpaceX to reach a valuation of $1.5 trillion upon its IPO [2][3] - The potential for Tesla's full self-driving technology to be commercialized could push its valuation towards $2 trillion, solidifying its position as a global tech leader [2] Group 3: Autonomous Driving Developments - The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the first batch of L3 autonomous driving licenses, marking a shift from "technical validation" to "commercial pilot" for autonomous driving in China [5][9] - Companies like Changan and BAIC Blue Valley have received L3-level licenses, indicating a significant advancement in the domestic autonomous driving sector [5][9] - Tesla's progress in Robotaxi technology is influencing the domestic industry, pushing for faster iterations and advancements in autonomous driving technology [9][10] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market environment is characterized by a focus on sectors with "from 0 to 1" technological breakthroughs, particularly in L3 autonomous driving and commercial aerospace [6][8] - Companies like Zhejiang Shibao and BAIC Blue Valley are becoming focal points for investment due to their roles in the L3 project and potential for industry restructuring [10] - The commercial aerospace sector is also gaining attention, with a shift in focus from broad launch capabilities to more specific components that ensure performance and reliability [10]

贵州省政府新闻办17日举行"十四五"时期数字经济发展成就新闻发布会。记者会上获悉，贵州将持续挖 掘算力潜能，进一步发挥数据中心价值，成为推动行业转型的"车间"和"工厂"。 贵州凭借气候、地理位置、产业生态等优势，建成了全国领先的算力底座，已有50个重点数据中心。在 数据中心网络连接方面，已建成三层时延圈，与42个主要城市直连，还有全球首条400G算力通道建成 投用。 贵州省大数据局副局长、新闻发言人江阳介绍，贵州将把算力底座打得更牢更绿色，加快推动已有的互 联网头部大厂、央国企等数据中心项目扩产上量，继续招引更多项目落地，做大数智产业集群规模；深 化算电协同，提升数据中心绿电使用占比；推动先进节能技术应用和老旧设备更新换代，进一步降低运 行能耗。 围绕数据中心所需，贵州将聚焦算力产业链薄弱环节开展延链补链强链，招引更多服务器、机架、运 维、大模型训推等上下游企业，推动更多项目落地，培育更多专业园区，不断完善数据中心从建设到投 用的配套保障。同时，把"贵州算力"的市场做得更大，让算力真正赋能实体经济。 目前，人工智能对公共语料的需求尤为强烈。贵州省大数据局党组成员、副局长向彪说，贵州将谋划建 设贵州语料中心，打 ...