Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and retreated, but remain above the mid-range and short-term moving averages, indicating a bullish advantage and potential re-entry opportunity for bullish positions [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,495.54 per ounce, reached a high of $4,500.27, then fell to a low of $4,423.39, ultimately closing at $4,456.29, with a daily range of $76.88 and a decline of $39.25, or 0.87% [3]. - The price drop was influenced by profit-taking at the $4,500 resistance level, but support buying and weaker-than-expected "non-farm payroll" data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][5]. Market Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish despite recent price fluctuations, with limited pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar index [5]. - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including jobless claims and trade balance, is expected to lean bearish for gold prices, but recent data suggests potential support for gold [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly following the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and U.S. plans regarding Venezuelan oil, are expected to sustain risk-averse sentiment, further supporting gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold is maintaining strength above trendline resistance, recovering most of the previous month's losses, which could lead to a new bull market with potential gains exceeding 30% [7]. - Weekly trends show gold recovering from previous declines and maintaining above key moving averages, suggesting increased bullish potential [7]. - Daily charts indicate a potential for further strength, with support levels identified at $4,440 and $4,410/$4,385, and resistance at $4,480 and $4,530 [10].

【#ADP止跌职位空缺却下滑# ，#非农将如何影响美联储降息预期# 】 作为今年首个重磅经济数据，随着本周五去年12月非农报告的揭晓，投资者将结束假日模式正式迎接 2026年新行情。数据显示，年末美国就业市场出现部分回暖，但并未完全摆脱困境。联邦基金利率期货 定价显示，今年美联储首次降息节点指向二季度，如果非农不及市场预期，美联储或将选择提前下调利 率稳定经济。 ...

2026.01.08 本文字数：2123，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 作为今年首个重磅经济数据，随着本周五去年12月非农报告的揭晓，投资者将结束假日模式正式迎接 2026年新行情。数据显示，年末美国就业市场出现部分回暖，但并未完全摆脱困境。联邦基金利率期货 定价显示，今年美联储首次降息节点指向二季度，如果非农不及市场预期，美联储或将选择提前下调利 率稳定经济。 数据喜忧参半 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，2025年最后一个月，美国企业新增就业岗位4.1万 个，疲软的劳动力市场在步入新一年之际出现小幅改善。虽然岗位止跌回升，数据依然不及机构预期的 新增4.8万。与此同时，招聘放缓的影响还体现在员工薪资议价能力的下降上。留任员工的薪资同比涨 幅为4.4%，与疫情以来的最低水平持平。而在几年前，这一同比涨幅曾一度飙升至7.8%的高位。 值得注意的是，新增岗位高度集中于少数几个领域，主要是医疗保健机构、餐饮及酒店行业。这种就业 增长缺乏行业普遍性的现象，凸显出过去一年间美国劳动力市场的疲软程度。 就业市场的景气程度是美联储权衡今年是否再次降息的最大考量因素。自2025年春季以来，美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market as it enters 2026, highlighting a slight recovery in employment but ongoing concerns about economic stability and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Labor Market Data - In December 2025, U.S. businesses added 41,000 jobs, which was below the expected 48,000, indicating a weak labor market [4][5]. - Wage growth for retained employees was stagnant at 4.4%, matching the lowest level since the pandemic, down from a peak of 7.8% in previous years [5]. - Job growth was concentrated in a few sectors, particularly healthcare and hospitality, reflecting a lack of broad-based recovery in the labor market [5]. Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated that the labor market's deterioration may be stabilizing, with two out of the last three months showing job growth [5]. - The JOLTS report revealed a decline in job openings from nearly 7.5 million in October to about 7.1 million in November, with the job vacancy rate dropping from 4.5% to 4.3% [6]. - The number of involuntary job losses remained stable, with approximately 1.7 million people unemployed in November, down from 1.9 million in October [6]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data on January 9 is expected to significantly influence market direction, with the last reported non-farm job increase of 64,000 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in over four years [8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have shown a tendency to lower interest rates due to concerns about the weak labor market, with a nearly 50% probability of a 25 basis point cut in March [8][9]. - Despite a generally optimistic economic outlook for 2026, there are concerns about stagnant inflation and a weakening labor market, which could lead to further adjustments in monetary policy [9][10]. Economic Perspectives - Economists express caution regarding the labor market, noting that the current job growth is slowing and wage pressures are easing, which may indicate underlying economic stress rather than confidence in future prospects [9][10]. - The "low hiring, low firing" model in the labor market is seen as unsustainable, with potential consumer spending cuts leading to increased layoffs if economic conditions worsen [10].

Core Insights - The ADP National Employment Report for December 2025 indicates a moderate recovery in the U.S. job market, with private sector non-farm employment increasing by 41,000 jobs, reversing a decline of 29,000 jobs in November [1][2] - The report highlights that job growth is concentrated in the service sector, particularly in education, healthcare, leisure, and hospitality, while some sectors like professional services and information services experienced job losses [1][2] Employment Growth - Private sector job growth in December 2025 was primarily driven by small and medium-sized enterprises, with small businesses (1-49 employees) adding 9,000 jobs and medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) adding 34,000 jobs, while large businesses (500+ employees) only added 2,000 jobs [2] - The South and Northeast regions saw job increases of 54,000 and 40,000 respectively, while the West experienced a significant decline of 61,000 jobs, indicating regional disparities in employment growth [2] Wage Growth - Wage growth remains moderate, with average annual salary increases for employees staying in their current positions at 4.4%, while those changing jobs saw an increase of 6.6%, reflecting a slight uptick from the previous month [2] - The manufacturing sector saw a wage growth of 4.8%, and the financial services sector experienced a 5.2% increase, indicating stronger wage growth in these industries [2] Economic Indicators - The ADP report serves as a key forward-looking indicator of the U.S. private sector job market, based on anonymous weekly payroll data from over 26 million employees across more than 500,000 businesses, providing insights into employment dynamics across industries, company sizes, and regions [3] - Following the release of the ADP data, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 3.9 basis points to 4.14%, while spot gold and silver prices fell by 1% and nearly 5% respectively [3] Market Expectations - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, expected to show an increase of 73,000 jobs for December 2025, will be closely watched, especially after previous data collection disruptions due to government shutdowns [4] - Analysts suggest that the ADP data, despite its softness, confirms a trend of "orderly cooling" in the labor market, which may reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle in the first half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ADP National Employment Report indicates a moderate recovery in the U.S. job market, with private sector non-farm employment increasing by 41,000 in December 2025, reversing a decline of 29,000 in November 2025, although it fell short of the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 48,000 [2][4]. Employment Growth - The employment growth is primarily concentrated in the service sector, with education and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality adding 24,000 jobs, and trade, transportation, and utilities increasing by 11,000 jobs. However, some sectors experienced job losses, including professional and business services, which decreased by 29,000 jobs, and the information services sector, which lost 12,000 jobs [2][3]. - The overall job market showed regional disparities, with the South and Northeast adding 54,000 and 40,000 jobs respectively, while the West saw a significant decline of 61,000 jobs, particularly in the Pacific region, which lost 59,000 jobs [2]. Business Size Impact - Job growth was predominantly driven by small and medium-sized enterprises, with medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) adding 34,000 jobs and small businesses (1-49 employees) contributing 9,000 jobs. Large enterprises (500+ employees) only added 2,000 jobs [3][4]. Wage Growth - Wage growth remains moderate, with average annual salary increases for employees staying in their positions at 4.4%, unchanged from November. The manufacturing sector saw a 4.8% increase, while the financial services sector experienced a 5.2% increase [3][4]. - Employees who changed jobs saw a salary increase of 6.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a cooling labor market [4]. Economic Indicators - The ADP report serves as a key forward-looking indicator of the U.S. private sector job market, based on anonymous weekly salary data from over 26 million private sector employees. It provides insights into employment dynamics across industries, business sizes, and regions [4]. - Following the release of the ADP data, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 3.9 basis points to 4.14%. Gold and silver prices also fell, with spot gold down by 1% and spot silver down nearly 5% [4][5].

中证报中证网讯(记者魏昭宇)1月7日晚，万家工业有色ETF基金经理贺方舟做客中国证券报"ETF点金 汇"直播间。谈及对工业金属板块的后市预判，他表示，随着美联储降息预期将陷入"胶着"，铜、铝等 资产进入"供需验证期"。在他看来，工业金属板块是受逻辑切换影响最大的板块，其定价将高度依赖于 微观数据。 谈及铜，他表示，这一资产宏观属性强。预期"胶着"时，其金融溢价会受到压制。但当前的核心矛盾在 于其自身极低的全球显性库存和长期供应短缺。因此，价格将在"宏观情绪的摇摆"和"现货紧张的硬约 束"之间剧烈博弈。任何大型基建项目(如"平急两用"设施)或电网投资的超预期，都可能成为突破震荡区 间的催化剂。 谈及铝，他表示，国内对这一资产的定价权更强，其成本(主要是电价)和国内供给侧"天花板"是核心。 需求更依赖于地产竣工和汽车轻量化的实际进度。海外降息预期的摇摆对其影响相对间接，更多通过全 球增长预期和汇率渠道传导。 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜美元走势保持稳健，尽管美国私营部门就业数据略逊于预期。根据周三公布的ADP数 据，12月私营部门雇主增加了41,000个工作岗位。《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家此前预期就业人数将 增加48,000人。然而，上月数据被上修为显示雇主裁减了29,000个工作岗位，而最初报告的就业人数下 降了32,000人。美元指数在数据公布后基本无变动，稳定在98.601。这些数据是在周五关键的美国非农 就业报告公布前发布的，该报告可能会影响市场对美联储下次降息时机的预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core factors influencing the Japanese yen include concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, rising risk appetite, and uncertainty regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which continues to exert pressure on the yen's exchange rate [1] - The Japanese Cabinet recently approved a record annual budget of 122.3 trillion yen, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and impacting market sentiment towards the yen [1] - Market risk appetite remains relatively high, diminishing the yen's appeal as a traditional safe-haven currency, while there is significant disagreement among investors regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's policy direction has not fundamentally changed, with the Governor indicating that as long as economic and inflation trends align with expectations, the central bank will continue to pursue interest rate hikes [2] - The hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan has led to a rise in Japanese government bond yields, narrowing the interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, which has made market participants more cautious about aggressive short positions on the yen [2] Group 3 - The US dollar's upward momentum is limited by ongoing expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a more conservative approach among dollar bulls [3] - Investors are awaiting key macroeconomic data from the US, including ADP private sector employment data and the non-farm payroll report, which will be crucial for assessing the dollar's future trajectory [3] Group 4 - Technically, the USD/JPY pair is showing a strong oscillating pattern, with key support at 156.15, which corresponds to the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart [4] - The MACD indicator shows a gradual decrease in bearish momentum, while the RSI is in a neutral zone, indicating a current state of consolidation in the market [4] - Key price levels include 156.10 as a critical support level, with potential for a new downward trend if breached, while resistance is focused around 157.15, which could open further upward movement if surpassed [4]

数据来源: Wind,北京大学国民经济研究中心 美联储降息预期下降,人民币震荡前行 预计 2026年 1 月在 6.90~7.05 区间波动 (北大国民经济研究中心) 2025 年 12 月，人民币汇率总体 6.9755 至 7.0794 区间内震荡升值。12 月公布数据显示 美国失业率上涨、通胀率下降, 12月主要发达国家货币政策分化,叠加年底集中结汇是影 响 12月美元兑人民币汇率走势的主要因素。展望未来,中国经济社会相对稳定,国际政治 大环境相对平稳,1 月美联储继续降息预期下降,国内"反内卷"经济增速或阶段性下调, 外部环境在大国博弈下愈发复杂,投机机会增加,资本市场宽幅波动。综合考虑,预计 2026年 1 月人民币汇率在 6.90～7.05 区间双向波动震荡前行。 一、市场回顾 2025 年 12 月，人民币汇率震荡前行,总体 6.9755 至 7.0794 区间内震荡升值。其中, 人民币在岸汇率在 6.9890 至 7.0725 间波动；人民币中间价在 7.0288 至 7.0794 间波动; 人民 币离岸汇率则是在 6.9755至 7.0720 间波动。第一,最新数据显示,美国失业率上涨、通胀 ...