Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward trend of Shanghai copper has slowed down, and the rebound momentum since the bottom last week is weakening. Although the short - term Shanghai copper needs to pay attention to the pressure near 76,470, considering the widening of the COMEX spread again, it is expected that the copper price is also difficult to break the downward space [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's upward trend slowed down and closed with a negative line. On the last trading day of the 04 contract, the total position decreased by 7,610 lots, and the price difference between the 05 - 06 contracts widened to 100. The macro situation lacks new positive factors, and the positive effect brought by the suspension of US counter - tariffs is almost over [9]. - On the spot market's delivery day, the premium rebounded, but the trading volume was mediocre. The Shanghai - London ratio slightly recovered, but the market trading was still mediocre. The premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained unchanged. The COMEX - LME price difference widened to $1,010/ton, and the COMEX inventory continued to increase. The logic of the US imposing tariffs on copper has returned to the market's focus [9]. - Both domestic and foreign copper prices are hovering near the multi - empty line. The domestic spot market's procurement has slowed down under the influence of rising copper prices. The short - term Shanghai copper needs to continue to pay attention to the pressure near 76,470, but considering the re - widening of the COMEX spread, it is difficult for the copper price to break the downward space [9]. 3.2 Industry News - Osisko Metals' preliminary drilling results of its Gaspé copper project in eastern Quebec exceeded expectations. The company is working to expand the resources of the Gaspé copper system, aiming to reopen the former Noranda mine in Murdochville. It plans to obtain a license and start construction in the early 2030s, with an estimated initial capital expenditure of about C$1.8 billion [10]. - Chile's state - owned mining company Enami is negotiating with manufacturers and trading companies interested in financing a smelting project worth over $1.4 billion. Although it seems to have no commercial significance to invest in smelting due to global supply glut, the project is considered feasible because it will use more efficient technology and produce by - products such as gold and sulfuric acid [10][11]. - Jintian Co., Ltd. reported that its operating income in 2024 was 124.161 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.36%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 462 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.29%. From 2021 to 2024, the company's copper product output had an annual compound growth rate of 8%. In 2024, its total output of copper and copper alloy materials was 1.9162 million tons, accounting for 9% of China's total copper processing materials output. Its overseas main business income was 12.161 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.75%, accounting for 10.76% of the company's main business income. The overseas sales volume of its copper products such as copper tubes, magnet wires, and copper strips was 169,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.58% [11].

期货热点追踪 分析师认为目前铜价格已反映大部分利空消息，且Comex铜期货对LME三个月期铜的溢价已经下降了 52%，未来铜价最有可能得路径是…… 相关链接 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sentiment surrounding trade conflicts has a greater impact than the actual effects, with expectations for copper prices to stabilize after sentiment dissipates [1][4]. - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tight balance in 2025, with supply constraints expected to gradually materialize, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 78,860 CNY/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week, while LME copper closed at 8,780 USD/ton, down 10.4% week-on-week [1][17]. - The report notes a significant drop in copper prices due to the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners [1]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 6.2%, while LME copper inventory fell by 1.0% [2][25]. - As of April 3, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 648,000 tons, down 18.3% week-on-week [2][46]. Supply - In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1,122,100 tons, up 6.0% month-on-month and 12.3% year-on-year [3][65]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 917 CNY/ton as of April 3, 2025, down 1,528 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][54]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 8.2 percentage points to 81.06% as of April 3, 2025 [3][75]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, is expected to see production increases of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% in April, May, and June 2025, respectively [3][94]. Futures Market - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions also fell by 12.0% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices in 2025, recommending stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Minmetals Resources [4][5].