点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 需求：本周线缆开工率环比-3pct，5月国内家用空调产量低于预期 （1）线缆：约占国内铜需求31%，线缆企业2025年6月19日当周开工率为73.26%，环比上周-3.05pct。（2）空 调：约占国内铜需求13%，据产业在线6月18日更新，2025年5月中国家用空调产量为2081.2万台，同 比-1.8%（4月预计的5月排产同比增速+9.9%）；销量2203.4万台，同比+2.3%。（3）铜棒：约占国内铜需求 4.2%，黄铜棒2025年5月开工率50.6%，环比-4.4pct、同比+0.05pct。 截至2025年6月20日，SHFE铜收盘价77990 元/吨，环比6月13日-0.03% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market remains tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the tense situation in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are at a low level, and LME copper inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, the off - season characteristics are evident, with a decline in power grid orders and weak performance in new energy, photovoltaics, and home decoration. The demand for copper tubes from the air - conditioning industry has weakened, but lower prices can still attract downstream restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tightening, the spot processing fee TC is continuously weakening, and the supply of recycled copper is in short supply. The probability of future production cuts or shutdowns of overseas smelters is increasing. [6] - Due to the fluctuations in US tariff policies and the tense situation in the Middle East, investors are becoming more cautious about global trade and economic growth. The macro and micro logics lack resonance, and it is expected that the price will not show a trend. However, the low domestic and overseas inventories indicate that there is still upward elasticity when the copper price is low. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage, but the large B - structure of LME will lead to losses for short - position roll - over. At the same time, the low - level depletion of domestic inventories allows the Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage to continue to be held. [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The copper price volatility in the four markets continues to be weak. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 17%, and the LME copper price volatility is around 5%. [10] - **Term Spread**: The term B - structure of Shanghai copper has widened, and the LME copper spot premium has increased. The spread between Shanghai copper 07 - 08 has risen from 210 yuan/ton on June 13th to 240 yuan/ton on June 20th. The LME 0 - 3 spread has expanded from a premium of 73.41 US dollars/ton to 274.99 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed. [12][14] - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, COMEX, LME copper, and international copper have all decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 20,700 lots to 531,200 lots. [15] - **Fund and Industrial Position**: The net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased. The net short position of LME commercial has decreased from 67,300 lots on June 6th to 67,000 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased from 24,100 lots on June 3rd to 26,300 lots on June 10th. [21] - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has expanded, rising from a premium of 35 yuan/ton on June 13th to 120 yuan/ton on June 20th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded to 40 US dollars/ton. The US copper premium remains at a high level, the Rotterdam copper premium has risen to 190 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained stable at 107.5 US dollars/ton. [25][27] - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has declined from 491,300 tons on June 12th to 487,600 tons on June 19th. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, slightly rising from 144,800 tons on June 12th to 145,900 tons on June 19th. The bonded - area inventory has increased from 59,700 tons on June 12th to 64,300 tons on June 19th. The COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. [34] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 07 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating relatively tight overseas spot markets. [35] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, with China importing 2.3952 million tons of copper ore and concentrates in May 2025, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The port inventory has decreased from 632,000 tons on June 13th to 514,000 tons on June 20th. The processing fee has continued to be weak, with the spot TC at - 44.78 US dollars/ton in the week of June 20th, and the smelter loss is about 3,712 yuan/ton. [38][41] - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year. In May, the import of recycled copper was 185,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%, and the domestic production of recycled copper was 91,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.23%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, and the import profit has expanded. [42][48] - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased, with 74,000 tons imported in April, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, the processing fee was at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 800 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [53] - **Refined Copper**: The production of domestic refined copper has increased more than expected. In May, the production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. The import volume has increased, with 253,100 tons imported in May, a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. Attention should be paid to the profitability of copper exports. [56] 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of June 19th, the operating rate of wire and cable declined. [59] - **Profit**: The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the copper tube processing fee has remained stable. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened. [62][65] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level. [66] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level. [69] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual copper consumption has performed well, with the cumulative consumption from January to May at 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and the apparent consumption at 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. The power grid investment has accelerated, with a cumulative investment of 140.8 billion yuan from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%. [74] - **Air - Conditioning and New Energy Vehicles**: In May, the domestic air - conditioning production was 20.812 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%, and the production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.11%. [76]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78665，基差355，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月19日铜库存减4025至103325吨，上期所铜库存较上周减5461吨至101943吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运 行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that copper prices are expected to decline to around $9,100 per ton in the third quarter of 2025 due to the reversal of tight supply conditions caused by preemptive imports in the U.S. and slowing demand from China [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the copper market was significantly tightened due to two main factors: pre-imports in the U.S. before potential tariffs and the early release of demand in China [2] - The report anticipates that the U.S. will import approximately 430,000 tons of excess refined copper in the first half of 2025, which is equivalent to about six months of normal import demand [2] Group 2 - The report suggests that as the certainty of copper tariffs approaches, the situation of preemptive imports will reverse, leading to a potential de-inventory period in the U.S. where refined copper imports may drop to very low levels [2] - China's copper demand growth rate is projected to be around 7% year-on-year, but this growth momentum has shown signs of slowing since April 2025 [2][3] - Despite strong demand from the power grid, the report predicts that demand for air conditioning and white goods will face headwinds, leading to a potential stagnation or slight contraction in overall copper demand in China in the second half of 2025 [3] Group 3 - The overall copper supply growth remains challenged, but prices are expected to find basic support around $9,000 per ton or slightly above this level, as price corrections may attract buying interest from investors, companies, and stockpilers [3] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East pose a downside risk to basic metal demand, although they may have a more significant positive impact on aluminum supply [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78755，基差-105，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月18日铜库存减200至107350吨，上期所铜库存较上周减5461吨至101943吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运 行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 期现价差 自然灾害 1 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [铜早报 Table_ReportType] 走势评级： 铜——高位盘整， 后续看跌 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20 楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: 宏观与行业消息：【伦敦金属交易所铜库存锐减，买方面临供应吃紧】据 报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜买方面临供应吃紧，随着交易员争夺交易 所仓库中不断下降的铜库存，现货铜价飙升。周二，将在一天内到期的合 约较次日到期合约一度溢价每吨 36 美元，为 2021 年历史性供应吃紧以来 最阔。尽管这一所谓的明日/次日价差临近收盘出现回落，但其他中长期限 价差继续收紧。现货合约价格飙升，即所谓的现货升水，表明交易所仓库 中的库存不足以满足交易商的需求。此前，LME 可交割库存今年已减少 80%。（华尔街见闻） 品种逻辑:宏观角 ...

截至2025年6月13日，SHFE铜收盘价78010 元/吨，环比6月6日-1.2%；LME铜收盘价9648 美元/吨，环比6月6 日-0.24%。（1）宏观：贸易冲突对经济负面影响尚未完全显现，仍会压制铜价涨幅。（2）供需：供给端铜矿 扰动增加，5月国内废铜产量同比下降20%；需求端出口备货效应减弱以及国内逐步进入淡季，需求有走弱风 险，预计铜价短期维持震荡，铜价有望在国内刺激政策出台以及美国降息后逐步上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-3%，LME铜库存环比-6% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：看好宏观预期改善后铜价上行 （1）国内港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年6月13日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存81.3 万吨，环比上周+8.8%。 （2）全球电解铜 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper futures price fluctuated downward and returned to the previous trading range. The monthly spread on the futures market widened, and the tightness in the spot market remained unchanged. The domestic social inventory decreased by 0.47 thousand tons compared to Monday. With the reduction in domestic smelting production and imports, the domestic copper supply decreased. However, the current off - season for downstream demand and the strengthening of the spot - futures price spread suppressed demand. Under the short - term situation of weak supply and demand, the social inventory is expected to continue to decline slightly [6]. - The LME copper inventory dropped to 117 thousand tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 58.3%. The LME inventory is expected to continue to decline. The high back structure of LME0 - 3 will keep the domestic import window closed and the export window open. Both Shanghai and LME copper face the risk of low inventory [6]. - The Kamoa copper mine lowered its 2025 annual production guidance by 150 thousand tons. Given the current tight supply of copper ore, the reduction in large - mine production will make the global copper ore market more tense in the second half of the year, and the tightness at the raw material end is expected to be transmitted to the smelting end, leading to production cuts by smelters. Fundamentals are still favorable for copper prices [6]. - The US CPI in May was lower than expected, opening up the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. However, the tense situation in the Middle East and the progress of Sino - US negotiations have increased market caution. In the short term, copper prices will continue to fluctuate under the influence of sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market showed a downward trend, with the monthly spread widening. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the spot premium remained flat. The supply decreased due to smelting cuts and reduced imports, while demand was suppressed by the off - season and the strong spot - futures spread. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the high back structure affects import and export windows. The reduction in Kamoa copper mine's production guidance will tighten the copper ore market, and the fundamentals support copper prices, but market sentiment causes short - term fluctuations [6]. 3.2. Industry News - Cobalt Blue completed the feasibility study of its Halls Creek project in Western Australia, with a phased development plan for copper and zinc production. The Onedin deposit will be mined through open - pit methods and processed to produce copper, while zinc will be recovered as monohydrate zinc acid. The Sandiego deposit will be mined underground to produce copper and zinc concentrates. The project will use a photovoltaic solar grid with battery energy storage for power supply [9]. - Ivanhoe's Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper complex in Congo resumed operations in its western area on June 7 after flood control measures, and the eastern area's mining is expected to start soon [9][10]. - On June 11, the government of Guixi City held a project promotion meeting, inspecting multiple copper - related projects such as the regeneration copper - based new material industrial park, copper production and recycling projects, and semiconductor and electronic material projects, and coordinating to solve project - related problems [10].

一、行情回顾 周三晚，沪铜期货2507合约下跌0.77%收于78570元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 SMM预计2025年6月中国阳极铜企业整体开工率将环比上升1.57个百分点至54.56%，其中矿产阳极铜企 业开工率为74.60%，环比上升1.91个百分点；废产阳极铜企业开工率为45.03%，环比上升1.41个百分 点。（仅指非自用阳极铜部分） 5月底卡莫阿生产扰动加剧原料矛盾，铜精矿目前延续供应紧缺，叠加冶炼厂亏损加深，40%企业均将 不同程度减产，预计预计6月国内电解铜产量环比下降0.72万吨降幅为0.63%。 6月11日，上期所铜期货仓单33373吨，环比上个交易日减少373吨。 三、机构观点 新湖期货：近期LME库存持续下降，LME市场BACK结构扩大；目前COMEX与LME价差仍在1000美元 以上，美国市场虹吸效应仍在，LME大概率将延续降库，LME现货偏紧。6月国内消费进入淡季，5月 下旬以来国内小幅累库，出口窗口打开，炼厂积极布局出口，短期基本面对铜价支撑减弱。但中期来 看，铜矿短缺的形势依然较为严峻；铜消费在电网高增长提振下韧性较强。铜基本面偏强。短期受 LME现货偏紧影响，铜价或震荡偏强运行， ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 11 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜冲高回落，日内一度站上 7.9 万，但受到中美关税谈判消息扰动，沪铜在尾 盘涨幅回落，国内期现价差平稳，LME 市场因昨库存大降 1 万吨，LME0-3back 结 构再度扩大至 95.78 美金/吨，LME 市场库存紧张趋势凸显，这也令沪伦比值下降， 出口窗口打开，短期 COMEX 铜价>LME 铜>沪铜，这将令国内铜及 LME 铜低库存持 续，基本面对铜 ...