Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices reached record highs for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking at 46,447.13 points, the Nasdaq at 22,801.90 points, and the S&P 500 at 6,698.88 points during intraday trading [1] - At market close, the Dow rose by 66.27 points (0.14%) to 46,381.54 points, the Nasdaq increased by 157.50 points (0.70%) to 22,788.98 points, and the S&P 500 gained 29.39 points (0.44%) to 6,693.75 points [1] - Notable stock movements included Tesla (TSLA.US) rising nearly 2%, Apple (AAPL.US) increasing over 4%, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) climbing nearly 4% with a market capitalization of $4.46 trillion [1] European Market Performance - The German DAX30 index fell by 122.49 points (0.52%) to 23,522.76 points, while the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 6.48 points (0.07%) to 9,223.15 points [2] - The French CAC40 index decreased by 23.48 points (0.30%) to 7,830.11 points, and the Spanish IBEX35 index dropped by 236.93 points (1.55%) to 15,077.37 points [2] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for October delivery fell by $0.04 to $62.64 per barrel (0.06% decline), while Brent crude oil futures for November delivery decreased by $0.11 to $66.57 per barrel (0.16% decline) [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin dropped over 2% to $112,933.10, and Ethereum fell more than 5.6% to $4,195.60 [3] - Spot gold reached a new all-time high at $3,747.06, having increased over $1,105 this year, indicating a potential investor concern despite a generally optimistic market [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested a need for a 1.25 percentage point rate cut within the year to protect the U.S. labor market, indicating that current rates are too high [4] - Milan's estimate for the neutral interest rate is around 2.5%, significantly lower than the Fed's median forecast of 3% [4] International Student Trends - The number of international students in the U.S. fell by 19% year-over-year to just over 313,000, marking a four-year low, with Asian students experiencing the largest decline of 24% [5] - The drop in international students is projected to result in a $7 billion loss for U.S. universities [5] Corporate Developments - Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in a partnership with OpenAI to develop AI data centers, with the first deployment expected in the second half of 2026 [7] - Google announced that its AI assistant Gemini will be available on Google TV, allowing users to interact with AI for content recommendations and queries [8] Analyst Ratings - Wedbush raised its target price for Apple (AAPL.US) to $310 [10] - Citigroup increased its target price for General Motors (GM.US) to $75 from a previous $61 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's policies, but finds himself in the minority within the Fed [1]. Group 1: Milan's Position - Milan calls for a total interest rate cut of 150 basis points this year to bring the policy rate closer to his estimated neutral level of 2.5% [1]. - He argues that current short-term rates are approximately 2 percentage points above the neutral level, leading to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [1]. - Milan emphasizes that his stance is not panic-driven, stating that maintaining rates above neutral will accumulate economic risks [1]. Group 2: Diverging Views within the Fed - Other Fed officials express caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting that inflation remains above the 2% target [2]. - St. Louis Fed President Bullard indicates support for rate cuts only if the labor market worsens without sustained inflationary pressures [2]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester believes the current policy rate is only mildly restrictive and warns against rapid rate cuts that could lead to economic overheating [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is skeptical of Milan's aggressive stance, with RSM's Chief Economist questioning the characterization of current monetary policy as tight [3]. - Observations of loose financial conditions and a labor market near full employment contradict Milan's claims of a highly restrictive policy [3].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for significant interest rate cuts in the coming months to protect the U.S. labor market, arguing that current rates are too high [1][2]. Group 1: Neutral Interest Rate - Miran estimates the neutral interest rate at approximately 2.5%, which is notably lower than the Federal Reserve officials' median forecast of 3% [2]. - He suggests that the neutral interest rate has been overestimated in the past and is currently under downward pressure due to factors like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Rate Cuts - Miran believes that maintaining short-term rates about 2 percentage points above the appropriate level could lead to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [2]. - He opposed the Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower rates by only 0.25 percentage points, advocating instead for a 0.5 percentage point cut [2]. - Miran hopes for an additional 1.25 percentage points reduction in the remaining two FOMC meetings of the year, contrasting with the median forecast of a 0.5 percentage point cut from other officials [2]. Group 3: Inflation Target and Policy Independence - Miran expressed potential support for abandoning the precise 2% inflation target, emphasizing that any adjustment should occur only after achieving and maintaining that target for a period [3]. - He stated that his call for significant rate cuts is not a panic response but a necessary measure to mitigate rising risks associated with prolonged high rates [3]. - Miran's stance aligns with President Trump's requests for aggressive rate cuts, yet he maintains a position of independence within the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Initial reactions to Miran's speech have been skeptical, with observers questioning the assertion that current monetary policy is significantly tight given the still accommodative financial environment and near-full employment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan indicated that interest rates are too high and emphasized the necessity for significant rate cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market [1] Group 1 - Milan's speech marks his first policy address since being appointed by President Donald Trump, where he discussed the reasons for a decline in the neutral interest rate that is neither stimulative nor restrictive [1] - He noted that the previously overestimated neutral interest rate has recently declined due to tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [1] - Milan warned that maintaining short-term interest rates at approximately 2 percentage points is excessively tight, leading to unnecessary layoffs and an increased risk of unemployment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are considered very restrictive, with an appropriate federal funds rate estimated to be around 2% to 2.5% [1] Group 1 - The neutral interest rate is expected to be close to zero [1]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading above 10,185, opening at 9,971 CNY/kg, and are reported at 10,247 CNY/kg, reflecting a 3.11% increase, with a high of 10,277 CNY/kg and a low of 9,964 CNY/kg, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The Shanghai silver market has reached new highs, closing around 10,250 CNY/kg, with trading focused on buying on dips, while support levels are noted at 10,000 and 9,800 CNY/kg, suggesting potential adjustments around the National Day holiday [5] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - New Fed Governor Milan emphasizes his independence in analyzing economic data and will articulate his interest rate views, alleviating market concerns about the Fed's autonomy [3] - Milan supports a 50 basis point rate cut, arguing that current rates are significantly above neutral levels and that there are no evident inflation risks, particularly due to immigration policies affecting housing demand [3][4] - He predicts that rates need to be lowered by over one percentage point by year-end, warning that maintaining high rates could pose significant risks to employment targets [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly falling below 4.0% [1][3] - Since the early 1970s, the Federal Reserve has experienced 12 interest rate cut cycles, with 5 occurring in a soft landing environment and 7 in a hard landing context [5][6] - In soft landing scenarios, the average interest rate cut is about 234 basis points (bps) over an average duration of 9 months, while in hard landing scenarios, the average cut is 647 bps over 20 months [5][6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic logic behind different interest rate patterns is influenced by the nature of the economic landing, affecting the slope and space of U.S. Treasury yields [2][27] - In preventive rate cuts, the decline in Treasury yields is smaller and rebounds sooner, while in recessionary cuts, the recovery in yields occurs later [2][28] - The low point of the 10-year Treasury yield is often associated with the pace of rate cuts, with faster cuts leading to earlier lows [2][28] Group 3 - Despite the restart of rate cuts, the potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield may be limited due to rising long-term nominal neutral rates in the range of 3-3.5% [3][50] - The market has priced in 4-5 rate cuts by the end of 2026, but economic forecasts suggest the Fed may only cut rates once if inflation remains above target [3][50] - The increase in term premium is expected to dominate the direction of long-term Treasury yields, with significant upward pressure from debt supply expansion and policy uncertainty [3][56]

点阵图惊现两大阵营：分歧表面化 2025年9月的最新点阵图清晰地展示了FOMC内部的分裂。这种分裂并非首次出现，在2025年3月和6月的点阵图中也曾显现。 具体来看，两大阵营以"年内降息75个基点"为分界线： 大摩报告认为，美联储内部对2025年降息路径存在显著分歧，19名官员中有10人支持降息75个基点或更多，另9人持反对意见。这种分歧的核心并非传 统的鹰鸽之争，而是源于对长期"中性利率"水平的不同认知。近期美国劳动力增长停滞，潜在经济增长或将放缓，进而对中性利率构成强大的下行压 力。 最新的点阵图显示，在19名FOMC成员中，有10人认为今年降息75个基点或更多是合适的政策路径。与此同时，另外9名成员则认为降息幅度应低于75 个基点。 然而，将这种分歧简单地标签化为"鸽派"与"鹰派"之争，可能会忽略更深层次的动态。据追风交易台消息，大摩的在19日的报告中指出， 这两个阵营的 根本分歧在于对"中性利率（r*）"水平的认知不同。尽管双方都认同应在2026年或最晚2027年中期将政策利率恢复至中性水平，但"中性"究竟在何 处，他们并无共识。 更关键的是， 报告观察到美国劳动力增长已陷入停滞，这预示着潜在经济增长 ...

Core Insights - The anticipation of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving optimism in the stock market, with major indices reaching historical highs [1][2][6] - Wall Street is betting on a faster and more substantial rate reduction, with futures markets predicting the benchmark short-term interest rate to fall below 3% by the end of next year [1][5] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index for August is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into inflation trends and the potential impact of tariff policies on prices [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expects the year-on-year PCE inflation rate to rise by 2.7% and the core PCE to increase by 2.9% [2] Federal Reserve Communications - Federal Reserve officials are set to make several public statements next week, which may provide further clarity on future monetary policy directions [3][4] - New Fed Governor Stephen Milan is expected to discuss his differing views on interest rate adjustments, advocating for a 50 basis point cut to reach neutral rates [3] Market Reactions - The stock market's bullish sentiment is reflected in the performance of cyclical stocks outperforming defensive stocks, driven by expectations of continued rate cuts [2][6] - Investors are closely monitoring short-term interest rate expectations, as they directly influence borrowing costs in the U.S. economy [6] Political Influences - President Trump's pressure for significant rate cuts and attempts to reshape the Federal Reserve's decision-making body are contributing to aggressive market expectations [6][7] - The labor market's slowdown and concerns over rising unemployment are prompting many investors to believe in the necessity of continued rate cuts [7]

来源：前主编 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到4.00%至4.25%之间。 投资者确信美联储将在周三进行今年首次政策利率下调。近期数据支持适度降息，但美联储明智的做法 是避免暗示未来将进一步降息或果断转向宽松政策。就目前而言，数据过于混乱，不适合任何此类转 变，央行需要保持开放心态。 劳动力市场比美联储政策制定者上次开会时所认为的要更为疲软。近期的数据修正大幅下调了截至三月 份的年就业人数预估，而最新一周的初请失业金人数显示增加至26.3万人，为四年来的最高水平。这些 数字众所周知波动很大，但就业市场显然正在走弱。 这似乎需要强有力的货币刺激。问题在于，通胀尚未可靠地朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。八月份，剔除 食品和能源的消费者价格指数（即所谓的核心CPI）环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨3.1%。这与预期大致相 符，并未给投资者任何理由怀疑本周政策利率会被下调。但事实仍然是：高于目标的通胀顽固地拒绝回 落。 美联储继续假设，当前4.25%至4.5%的政策利率正在温和地抑制需求，足以在适当时候使通胀回归目 标。也许是这样。但再次强调，需要保持谨慎。中性利率——即既不增加也不减少需求的水平 ...