新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 节后累库引发消费担忧 氧化铝现货价格：2025-05-07 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2900元/吨，山东价格录得2850元/吨，广西价格录得 2880元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得348美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-05-07氧化铝主力合约开于2686元/吨，收于2704元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨12元/ 吨，涨幅0.45%，最高价达到2738元/吨，最低价为2682元/吨。全天交易日成交457420手，较上一交易日增加 163175手，全天交易日持仓297760手，较上一交易日增加10178手。 市场分析 电解铝：由于今天美元指数跌破98关口，为近三年来首次，日内跌超1%，有色商品普涨，铝价跟随上涨。截至目 前，现货市场实际消费情况并未受到关税影响，库存持续下滑，现货市场升贴水好转，此外终端或存在抢出口的 情况，因此近两个月国内中端加工消费强度存在保证。基本面方面尚未出现利空因素，供应端保持基本稳定，消 费端，下游加工企业开工率基本已经恢复正常，社会库存季节性去库顺利，库存绝对值低于历史5年同期水平。当 前关税对消费的实际影响存在较大争议，但后续 ...

M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤 制利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/04/28 790 485 4210 4265 4220 -16 -720 68.4 62.2 80.0 72 2025/04/29 790 488 4216 4273 4220 -10 -713 68.4 62.2 79.0 72 2025/04/30 790 486 4216 4273 4220 -10 -712 68.4 62.2 79.0 72 2025/05/06 790 488 4190 4235 4188 -36 -738 68.4 62.2 79.0 72 2025/05/07 790 495 4255 4295 4252 29 -673 68.4 62.2 79.0 72 变化 0 7 65 60 64.00 65.00 65 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 商谈价格4159-4272附近，基差对09（+54）附近。 MEG装置变化 上海石化38万吨重启；贵州黔西30万吨检 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company recorded revenue of $423 million, a reduction of 4.2% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced new equipment sales in the Material Handling segment and lower rental revenues from the Construction segment [18][19] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $33.6 million, down just $500,000 compared to Q1 of 2024, indicating resilience despite revenue declines [20] - Gross margins improved, with a 230 basis point year-over-year increase in service gross margin, particularly from the Construction segment [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Construction Equipment segment showed stable operating trends, with increased fleet deployments as construction activity picked up in the Northeast and Midwest regions [6][8] - The Material Handling segment experienced a decline in new equipment sales but saw stronger margins on both new and used equipment sales, which helped offset lower delivery volumes [9][18] - The Product Support business remained strong, contributing positively to overall performance [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The construction equipment market expanded modestly year-over-year, driven by infrastructure-related projects, while some regions experienced softening in private nonresidential construction [8][10] - The Florida construction market remained robust due to ongoing investments from the Florida Department of Transportation and federal government [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has decided to divest substantially all of its aerial equipment rental business in the Chicago area, as it no longer aligns with long-term objectives [11][12] - A strategic shift in capital allocation was announced, with the indefinite suspension of the quarterly dividend to focus on share buybacks, increasing the repurchase program by $10 million to a total of $30 million [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges from U.S. trade policy and tariffs but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate these issues [5][10] - The company reiterated its guidance for adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025, expecting a range of $171.5 million to $186.5 million, driven by stable infrastructure markets and improved operational efficiencies [24][25] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with approximately $290 million in cash and availability on its revolving line of credit, positioning it well for future challenges [22][23] - The divestiture of the aerial fleet rental business is expected to yield approximately $20 million in cash proceeds, which will be allocated to outstanding debt [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are there more assets within the company for potential divestiture? - Management indicated that future divestitures would be more surgical and focused on product lines rather than large-scale divestitures [33][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the parts and service gross margin improvement? - The improvement was primarily driven by operational efficiencies in the Construction segment, focusing on minimizing non-billable time and training technicians [35][36][37] Question: How do you view capital return versus debt reduction? - The company plans to be opportunistic, using excess cash flows for debt servicing while also focusing on share repurchases when the share price is favorable [38][39] Question: What is the outlook for the material handling business? - Stability was noted in the food and beverage sector, with some concerns in the automotive sector, but overall demand remained stable [46][48] Question: Is there tariff exposure in the environmental business? - The company acknowledged direct exposure to tariffs from imported equipment but deemed the current impact manageable [49][50] Question: Any updates on the e-mobility business? - The e-mobility business remains nascent, with no material impacts from the bankruptcy of a key OEM, and the company is evaluating other potential vendors [59][60][62] Question: Are there favorable pricing conditions for potential acquisitions? - While pricing may not change significantly, there could be more opportunities for strategic acquisitions due to management succession issues in the current macro environment [63][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Orders increased by nearly 22% in the quarter, resulting in a record backlog of $932 million [16] - Sales grew by 6.6% in the quarter, with all three segments contributing to the increase [16] - Adjusted EBIT margins were at 18%, with incremental margins on sales growth at 56%, leading to adjusted earnings per share of $1.35, a 24% increase compared to the previous year [17] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Aerospace and Defense**: Orders were up 5% with nearly 8% sales growth, driven by commercial aerospace and Navy orders. Adjusted EBIT margins increased by 400 basis points, with EBIT dollars up 28% due to favorable pricing and mix [18][19] - **Utility Solutions Group**: Orders grew nearly 17%, with sales growth of 4%. Adjusted EBIT margins improved to 23%, up 290 basis points from the previous year [20] - **Test Business**: Orders surged by 75% compared to last year, with sales up 9%. Margins improved to 12.4%, benefiting from volume leverage and price increases [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The aerospace and defense market is expected to continue growing despite macro uncertainties, with strong demand for commercial and defense aircraft [9] - The utility market is experiencing a favorable business cycle, driven by increased electricity demand and aging infrastructure [12] - The renewable energy market is recalibrating, but order activity is improving compared to the previous year [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed a major acquisition of SMMP, rebranding it as ESCO Maritime Solutions, which is expected to enhance margins and growth profile [11] - The strategic planning process assessed end markets and strategies to deliver above-market growth, focusing on long-term dynamics [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in navigating macroeconomic challenges and highlighted strong operational performance and strategic developments [5][6] - The company anticipates continued growth in key markets, with a favorable mix of businesses to mitigate risks [28] Other Important Information - The company updated its earnings guidance for 2025, projecting adjusted earnings per share in the range of $5.85 to $6.15, factoring in potential tariff impacts [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the sale of VACCO - The company is in an involved process to potentially sell VACCO, with active interest but no conclusion expected until May [31] Question: Performance of the underlying business - The overall business has stabilized with improved performance compared to last year, although margins remain lower than other segments [33][34] Question: Clarification on tariff impacts - The estimated tariff impact of $2 million to $4 million is a net number, with actions being taken to mitigate this [35][36] Question: Cash generation from Maritime Solutions - The strong cash profile is expected to continue, with ongoing details being worked through as the integration progresses [44] Question: Thoughts on shipbuilding budgets and orders - The company feels positive about the shipbuilding budget and order flow, particularly for submarines, which are high on the Department of Defense's priority list [75] Question: Insights on commercial aircraft orders - There has been a moderation in commercial aircraft orders, but the company remains confident in Boeing's recovery and backlog management [72][73] Question: Pro forma capital structure and leverage profile - The pro forma leverage ratio is expected to drop below 2 as the company continues to grow EBITDA and pay down debt [81]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, while continuing to reduce its holdings of Treasury and MBS at the current pace [6]. Economic Conditions - The unemployment rate has stabilized, and the labor market remains resilient, but risks of high unemployment and inflation have increased. Economic uncertainty has further risen, although economic activity continues to expand at a "steady pace" despite fluctuations in net exports [7]. Interest Rate Outlook - The current uncertainty requires the Federal Reserve to remain patient, with all members supporting this wait-and-see approach. There is no immediate need to adjust rates, and the Fed can act swiftly if circumstances change [8]. Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation expectations have risen, while long-term expectations remain aligned with targets. The persistence of inflation will depend on the scale, timing, and expectations surrounding tariffs [9]. Employment Outlook - Wage growth has continued to slow, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment levels. Consideration of the distance and time to bridge any gaps between dual objectives is necessary [10]. Economic Slowdown - There are no signs of economic slowdown in actual data, and the economy remains robust. However, uncertainty is high, and the risks of economic downturn have increased [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariffs have been larger than expected, but no significant economic impact has been observed from tariff data so far. The inflation effects of policies may be temporary, and ongoing trade negotiations could substantially change the situation [12]. Market Reactions - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates varying probabilities for future interest rate changes, with a notable percentage expecting the Fed to maintain rates or implement a 25 basis point cut [14][15]. Institutional Analysis - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, with good employment data supporting the current stance. There is a consensus that a more significant rate cut may be necessary if the Fed waits too long [16][19][21].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales decreased by 6% year over year, with metal cutting sales declining 4% organically and infrastructure declining 2% organically [9][25] - Adjusted EPS increased to $0.47 compared to $0.30 in the prior year quarter, driven by restructuring benefits and an advanced manufacturing tax credit [12][28] - Adjusted EBITDA and operating margins were 17.9% and 10.3% respectively, compared to 14.2% and 8.1% in the prior year quarter [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metal cutting sales were down 7% year over year, with a 4% organic decline and unfavorable foreign currency exchange of 3% [29] - Infrastructure sales declined 4% year over year, with an organic decline of 2% and unfavorable foreign currency exchange of 2% [32] - Aerospace and defense sales increased by 28%, while energy declined by 3% mainly in The Americas [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - EMEA remained the slowest market, down 4% on a constant currency basis, while The Americas and Asia Pacific both declined by 1% [9][30] - General engineering and transportation were largely impacted by market conditions in EMEA and The Americas [11][30] - Aerospace and defense showed slight improvement as supply chain constraints eased [49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing growth initiatives in aerospace and defense, despite overall market weakness [8][10] - A restructuring action was announced to lower structural costs by reducing employment costs and consolidating manufacturing operations [7][10] - The company aims to fully mitigate the impact of tariffs through various actions, including optimizing product flow and evaluating alternative supply options [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while there are short-term pressures across end markets, long-term trends for industrial production remain positive [11][12] - The company expects to achieve a $15 million annualized run rate savings from restructuring actions by June 30 [40] - Management remains committed to executing value creation initiatives to deliver a strong finish to fiscal 2025 [43] Other Important Information - The company returned $40 million to shareholders through share repurchase and dividend programs [36] - The estimated annual impact of tariffs is approximately $80 million, with ongoing mitigation actions in place [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the outlook for the fourth quarter and demand trends? - Management indicated steady improvement in demand trends, with general engineering and transportation remaining flat, while aerospace and defense showed slight improvement [48][50] Question: Can you provide more details on tariff mitigation actions? - Management confirmed that they are confident in fully mitigating the direct impact of tariffs and have already begun implementing several actions [54][56] Question: What were the biggest surprises in the quarter relative to previous guidance? - The advanced manufacturing tax credit was a significant driver of performance, with tungsten prices expected to impact costs moving forward [66][68] Question: How is the competitive landscape affected by tariffs? - Management noted that they are performing better than peers and are well-positioned to utilize their global footprint to mitigate tariff impacts [73][74] Question: Are there any opportunities for M&A or portfolio optimization due to the changing trade situation? - Management acknowledged ongoing discussions regarding strategic priorities and potential portfolio actions in light of the tariff situation [81] Question: What is the pricing outlook for the final quarter of the year? - Management confirmed that the pricing outlook remains at approximately 2%, excluding tariff impacts [107]

美联储将于当地时间5月7日（北京时间5月8日2:00）发布5月的利率决议。目前市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动。 市场普遍预计今晚美联储将维持利率不变。CME美联储观察的数据显示，此次决议降息的概率仅为1%，维持当前利率不变的概率为99%。 CME美联储观察利率 即使当天维持利率不变，市场仍然希望能从会议声明以及新闻发布会上获得更多信息，特别是关税影响以及未来降息路径的指引上。 美联储主席鲍威尔将于决议公布30分钟后举行新闻发布会，预计关税和通胀问题将是他回答的重点，同时投资者也在期望他如何解释不急于调整利率的主要 原因。 市场上，美股三大股指小幅高开，其中，道指涨0.36%，纳指涨0.06%，标普500指数涨0.15%。 宏观数据坚挺美联储难降息 预计美联储在会后声明中将对经济状况描述进行调整。由于第一季度GDP受进口驱动出现萎缩，委员会将无法重申整体经济活动"继续稳步扩张"。摩根大通 预计，美联储将下调对经济活动的评估——表明经济活动已"放缓"，而非"继续以稳健的速度扩张"。 但目前美国各项经济数据尚属坚挺，除了一季度GDP出现萎缩外，3月通胀数据有所缓和，4月失业率保持稳定。数据显示，美联储最爱的通胀指标降 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for the first quarter of 2025 were $195 million, exceeding the top end of guidance by $5 million, but still below prior year levels due to ongoing end market weakness [9][18] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.3%, with cash from operations increasing by 7% year over year to $19 million despite sales contraction [10][24] - Diluted EPS was $0.22, down 21% from the previous year, primarily due to an 8% decline in sales [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hydraulic sales declined by 11% year over year, reflecting weakness in agriculture, mobile, and industrial end markets [21] - Electronics sales remained relatively unchanged, with growth in health and wellness and recreational markets offsetting declines in industrial and mobile sectors [23] - Gross margin for hydraulics contracted by 170 basis points, while electronics gross margin held steady [19][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia Pacific sales in the electronics segment increased by 24% year over year, driven by growth in the health and wellness end market [18] - Overall, sales declined in all regions compared to the previous year, highlighting persistent weakness in most end markets [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is refocusing on customer-centric initiatives to drive business success and improve shareholder returns [7][8] - A strategy to mitigate tariff impacts includes localizing production and leveraging existing manufacturing capabilities in China and the APAC region [30][31] - The company aims to capitalize on market share opportunities created by competitors relying on Chinese manufacturing [60][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the downstream effects of prolonged tariff escalations, including rising costs and pricing pressures [9] - Despite challenges, there are positive trends in order intake, with a focus on improving customer relationships and product offerings [12][13] - The company expects second quarter sales to range from $198 million to $206 million, indicating a sequential increase from the first quarter [35] Other Important Information - The company has reduced debt by 15% over the last twelve months and has a strong liquidity position with nearly $400 million available [11][27] - Capital expenditures for 2025 will focus on maintenance and productivity enhancements with evident returns on investment [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights from the listening tour and specific actions taken - Management highlighted the importance of customer engagement and accountability, emphasizing a shift from a passive to a more aggressive sales approach [44][45] Question: Impact of tariffs on manufacturing and costs - The company is transferring manufacturing to mitigate tariff impacts, with minimal investment required due to existing operations in the region [49][50] Question: Competitive positioning around tariffs - Management sees market share gain opportunities due to competitors' reliance on Chinese imports, particularly in hydraulics and electronics [59][60] Question: Demand changes and guidance for Q2 - Management noted positive order intake trends and expects to see some revenue from tariff-related opportunities in Q2, but significant impacts are anticipated in the back half of the year [65][66] Question: Portfolio assessment and potential divestitures - The company is open to evaluating its portfolio for strategic fit and financial performance, focusing on debt reduction before considering acquisitions [85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for Q1 2025 were $195 million, exceeding the top end of guidance but below prior year levels due to continued end market weakness [10][19] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.3%, with cash from operations increasing by 7% year over year to $19 million despite sales contraction [11][25] - Diluted EPS was $0.22, down 21% from the previous year, primarily due to an 8% decline in sales [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hydraulic sales declined by 11% year over year, reflecting weakness in agriculture, mobile, and industrial end markets [22] - Electronics sales remained relatively unchanged, with growth in health and wellness and recreational markets offsetting declines in industrial and mobile sectors [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia Pacific sales in the electronics segment increased by 24% year over year, driven by a return to growth in the health and wellness end market [19] - Overall sales declined in all regions compared to the previous year, with foreign exchange negatively impacting sales by $2.3 million [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is refocusing on customer-centric initiatives to drive business success and improve shareholder returns [7][8] - A strategy to mitigate tariff impacts includes leveraging regional manufacturing capabilities and enhancing local production to reduce costs [31][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about prolonged tariff escalations affecting costs and end market demand but remains committed to long-term strategic decisions [9][30] - The company anticipates a sequential sales increase in Q2 2025, projecting sales between $198 million and $206 million [36] Other Important Information - The company has reduced debt by 15% over the last year and has maintained a strong liquidity position with nearly $400 million available [12][27] - The company is prioritizing capital expenditures for impactful projects with quick payback periods [12][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights from the listening tour and specific actions taken - Management highlighted the importance of customer engagement and aggressive market strategies, moving from a passive to a more proactive approach [44][46] Question: Impact of tariffs on manufacturing and costs - Management indicated that transferring manufacturing to local regions is already in progress, with minimal investment required due to existing capabilities [49][51] Question: Competitive positioning around tariffs - Management sees significant market share gain opportunities due to competitors relying on Chinese manufacturing, which is now less cost-competitive [60][62] Question: Guidance for Q2 and demand changes - Management noted that order intake has exceeded sales for five consecutive months, indicating positive demand trends despite uncertainties [100][104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $233 million, up 3% year-on-year, with EBITDA margins expanding by 40 basis points to 6.5% [30][31] - Consolidated sales decreased to approximately $3.6 billion, a decline of $139 million compared to Q2 fiscal year 2024, primarily due to lower customer volumes and foreign exchange impacts [32][33] - Free cash flow for Q2 was an outflow of $90 million, consistent with internal expectations reflecting normal seasonality [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, sales increased due to favorable comparisons with the previous year, driven by key customer programs reaching full run rates [33][34] - EMEA experienced lower production volumes but began to see improvements from restructuring efforts, with a recorded non-cash goodwill impairment of $333 million due to market value declines [22][30] - Asia's performance was flat year-on-year, with expectations for growth driven by new business with local OEMs [23][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas outperformed industry volumes, while EMEA faced headwinds from weaker market demand [33][34] - In Asia, sales in China underperformed due to lower volumes from traditional luxury OEM customers, but new customer launches outside China are expected to drive growth [33][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating tariff impacts through resourcefulness and leveraging its global footprint to create value for customers [13][17] - Adient aims to capitalize on growth opportunities by focusing on more profitable business and investing in innovation and efficiency measures [10][17] - The company is committed to maintaining operational excellence and solid execution to navigate macroeconomic volatility [9][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage tariff exposure and emphasized the importance of USMCA compliance [15][17] - The outlook for the second half of fiscal year 2025 remains positive, with expectations for continued strong business performance despite potential volume headwinds from tariffs [45][46] - Management highlighted the resilience of the operating model and the ability to mitigate external pressures [30][31] Other Important Information - Adient received multiple awards for supplier excellence, including recognition from GM and Toyota for quality and performance [11][12] - The company has a strong cash balance of $754 million and total liquidity of $1.6 billion, with no near-term debt maturities [41][42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify the progress on tariffs and the roadmap for recovery? - Management indicated that the roadmap includes ongoing price negotiations and cost offsets, with 75% of the gross position already resolved [57][58] Question: How is the EMEA region performing relative to expectations? - Management noted that while EMEA showed positive business performance, it is still subject to variability and should not be seen as a trend [60][62] Question: What is the outlook for margins and cost efficiency actions? - Management expects significant opportunities for margin improvement, particularly in the Americas, while cautioning that EMEA may not see inflection until 2026 [71][74] Question: How are FX assumptions impacting guidance? - Management maintained previous FX assumptions due to volatility, indicating potential translational upside if rates hold [77][78] Question: What is the current mindset on capital allocation? - Management reiterated a measured approach to capital allocation, focusing on investments in the business and potential share repurchases based on cash generation and market clarity [80][82]