Group 1: Gold Market - The non-farm payroll report released on February 11 indicates strong resilience in the U.S. job market, leading to a decrease in expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in March is 92.2%, with a 7.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut; by April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 25.3% [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold has been in a wide range of fluctuations after a significant drop at the end of last month, with a bearish outlook if it breaks below the support level of $4,980 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with Trump aims to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, warning of potential military action if negotiations fail, which poses risks to global oil supply [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global oil demand growth will be lower than previously expected, with a surplus projected to exceed 3.7 million barrels per day [4] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices fell significantly on February 12, breaking the important support level of $63.70, with a high likelihood of testing the $61.50 level [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained a range of $5.55 to $6.05 after a significant drop at the end of last month, with attention on the potential breakout direction [7] - The immediate resistance level to watch is $5.83 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend, accelerating upward on February 6, and is currently maintaining high-level fluctuations [8] - There is a significant possibility of testing the support level at 56,100, and if it breaks, the next target would be 55,300 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in gold and silver prices has negatively impacted Hong Kong's gold-related stocks, with significant drops observed across various companies due to widespread market sell-offs triggered by investor concerns over AI's impact on corporate earnings [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Gold prices fell sharply, with spot gold dropping to $4,878 and spot silver to $74.4 [1] - The sell-off was exacerbated by commodity trading advisors (CTAs) using computer models to bet on price trends, leading to increased market volatility [1] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's next actions [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Lingbao Gold (03330) saw a decline of 3.80%, with a latest price of 23.800 and a market cap of 30.638 billion [2] - China Gold International (02099) decreased by 3.67%, with a latest price of 191.600 and a market cap of 75.953 billion [2] - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 3.69%, with a latest price of 43.360 and a market cap of 1.15 trillion [2] - Other notable declines include Zijin Gold International (02259) down 2.79%, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) down 2.68%, and Shandong Gold (01787) down 2.44% [2]

美联储仍可能降息 —— 但不急：瑞银 瑞银全球财富管理表示，尽管就业数据强劲，美国通胀降温仍应使美联储保持在降息轨道上。 该机构预计将在6 月和 9 月各降息 25 个基点，从而支撑股票、债券和黄金。 美联储仍可能降息 —— 但不急：瑞银 瑞银全球财富管理表示，尽管就业数据强劲，美国通胀降温仍应使美联储保持在降息轨道上。 该机构预计将在6 月和 9 月各降息 25 个基点，从而支撑股票、债券和黄金。 根据 LSEG 的数据，在劳工报告发布后，市场将今年预期的降息幅度从60 个基点下调至约 50 个基点，并且目 前预计首次降息将在7 月而非 6 月。 根据 LSEG 的数据，在劳工报告发布后，市场将今年预期的降息幅度从60 个基点下调至约 50 个基点，并且目 前预计首次降息将在7 月而非 6 月。 1 月 CPI 数据将于周五公布。 ...

Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% from 4.4% [1][5] - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% [1][5] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [1][5] Employment Data Analysis - The January employment data shows signs of improvement, particularly in the education and health sectors, which contributed significantly to job growth due to adjustments in the NBD model [2][23] - The construction sector also saw job gains, with 33,000 new jobs added, primarily driven by non-residential contractors rather than residential construction [2][23] - The unemployment rate's decline and the increase in labor participation, especially among the 25-54 age group, indicate a rising willingness to work among U.S. residents [2] Future Outlook - Despite the positive January employment figures, there are concerns about potential "water" in the data, suggesting that the employment market remains in a "weak balance" [3] - Short-term risks include tariff impacts and immigration policies that could negatively affect employment [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance in the first half of the year, with attention on upcoming CPI data to gauge inflationary pressures [3] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and stock markets all experienced upward movements, indicating reduced concerns over layoffs [12][18] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 4.2%, reflecting market optimism [12] - Gold prices fell in response to the employment data, aligning with lowered expectations for interest rate cuts [12][21] Data Revisions - The annual benchmark revision indicates that the average monthly job addition for 2025 is now projected at only 15,000, marking the weakest performance since 2003, excluding economic crisis years [9] - The revisions included a downward adjustment of 898,000 jobs for seasonally adjusted non-farm employment for March 2025 [9] Sector Contributions - The education and health services sector added 137,000 jobs, while the construction sector contributed 33,000 jobs, indicating sector-specific growth drivers [23] - Manufacturing managed to add 5,000 jobs in January, breaking a streak of negative growth over the previous 13 months [23]

据美媒最新报道，美国财政部长贝森特在一次闭门会议中，同意由美国参议院银行委员会而非司法部对美联储 主席鲍威尔展开调查。此举旨在争取参议院银行委员会的关键成员放弃对凯文·沃什出任美联储主席的提名阻 挠。 与此同时，美联储的降息前景也面临较大的不确定性。受超预期的就业数据影响，交易员大幅削减了对美联储 降息的押注。但美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，其认为美联储仍有充足的降息空间。美国总 统特朗普也重申，美国利率应当大幅降低。 市场方面，隔夜美股三大指数全线重挫，截至收盘，纳指大跌2.03%，标普500指数大跌1.57%，道指跌 1.34%，金融股集体大跌，花旗集团大跌超5%，高盛、摩根士丹利大跌超4%。目前交易员正密切关注美国经 济数据，包括将于周五公布的重磅CPI数据，以寻找美联储利率路径的线索。 针对鲍威尔的调查，贝森特突然"松口"。 鲍威尔的调查风波 当地时间2月12日，美国财经媒体Semafor报道，有知情人士透露，美国财长贝森特在与参议院共和党议员的闭 门会议中，同意将针对鲍威尔的调查权限由司法部转移至参议院银行委员会。 报道称，贝森特此举旨在争取共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Till ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 2 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（2 月第 6 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-02-13 00:21:07 1 / 3 投资策略|点评报告 广发投资策略研究小组 | 刘 | 晨 | 明 ：首席分析师，南开大学世界经济硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑 | | 恺 ：首席分析师，华东师范大学金融学硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | 许 | 向 | 真 ：（上海）资深分析师，厦门大学硕士，8 年策略研究经验。 | | 倪 | | 赓 ：（上海）资深分析师，中山大学硕士，7 年策略研究经验。 | | 陈 | 振 | 威 ：（上海）资深分析师，香港中文大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 泽 | 蓁 ：（上海）资深分析师，上海财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 清 | 源 ：（上海）高级分析师，西南财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 毕 ...

周四(2月12日)，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.34%，标普500指数跌1.57%，纳指跌2.03%。 科技股集体下跌，思科领跌，股价重挫超13%，最新财报显示，内存价格持续飙升令思科业绩承压，季度毛利率低于预期。此外，苹果跌5%，脸书跌近 3%，特斯拉、亚马逊跌超2%，英伟达跌逾1%。 CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为7.8%，维持利率不变的概率为92.2%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率 25.3%，维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.9%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月12日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国"必须"与伊朗达成协议，否则局势将"非常严重"。此外，特朗普称以色列总理内塔尼亚 胡"没有说过"要求停止谈判，双方也"没有讨论过"这一问题。他强调，"我愿意和他们(伊朗)谈多久就谈多久"，如果无法达成协议，"将进入第二阶段"， 而第二阶段"对他们来说会非常艰难"。特朗普称，如果伊朗不达成协议，"将会是另一种局面"，并警告未来一个月内局势可能迅速发展。特朗普表示，与 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的会谈" ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.34%, the S&P 500 down by 1.57%, and the Nasdaq dropping by 2.03% [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks saw a collective downturn, with Cisco leading the decline, plummeting over 13% due to rising memory prices impacting its performance, resulting in a quarterly gross margin below expectations. Other notable declines included Apple down 5%, Facebook nearly 3%, and Tesla and Amazon both down over 2% [2]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector faced widespread losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreasing by 2.5%. Key players like Micron Technology fell nearly 4%, while Intel, AMD, and Broadcom dropped over 3% [2]. Banking Sector - Bank stocks also fell sharply, with JPMorgan Chase down over 2%, Goldman Sachs declining by more than 4%, Citigroup down over 5%, and Morgan Stanley nearly 5% [2]. Energy Sector - Energy stocks collectively declined, with ExxonMobil down nearly 3%, Chevron down nearly 2%, and Occidental Petroleum dropping over 3% [2]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw a general decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3%. Individual stocks like Tencent Music and Huya fell over 10%, while Beike dropped nearly 6% [3]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling below $5000, closing at $4920.97 per ounce, and spot silver declining over 10% to $75.3 per ounce [3]. Oil Prices - International oil prices also fell, with WTI crude oil futures down 2.77% to $62.84 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures down 2.71% to $67.52 per barrel [5]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw major declines, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 3% to $65,820.2, and over 110,000 traders liquidated positions in the past 24 hours [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - According to the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 7.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 92.2%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 49.9% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The January non-farm employment data significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery primarily driven by the private sector rather than government job recovery, reflecting signs of economic stabilization in the U.S. [5] Group 1: Employment Data - In January, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 70,000, with the previous value revised from 50,000 to 48,000 [4] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4% [4] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.6% and revised from a previous increase of 3.8% [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Employment in professional and business services saw an increase in temporary services jobs from 6,000 to 9,000, indicating strong demand in the part-time market [6] - The construction sector added 33,000 jobs in January, a significant recovery from the previous loss of 4,000 jobs, supported by declining mortgage rates and housing reform initiatives [6] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, up from 62.4%, indicating a rebound in employment willingness among the middle-aged demographic [8] - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 141,000, contributing to the drop in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.3% [8] - Temporary unemployment decreased by 83,000, while permanent unemployment saw a slight increase of 38,000, suggesting increased hiring demand from businesses [8] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Given the strong employment data, the Federal Reserve's focus is expected to shift towards inflation, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [5][8] - The expectation is that the new Fed chair, after Powell's term ends in May 2026, will adopt a dovish stance and potentially initiate 2-3 rate cuts later in the year [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on the software industry and office space demand leading to a sell-off in commercial real estate and tech sectors [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 669.42 points, a decrease of 1.34%, closing at 49,451.98 points; the S&P 500 dropped by 108.71 points, down 1.57%, closing at 6,832.76 points; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 469.32 points, a drop of 2.03%, closing at 22,597.15 points [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks faced pressure, with Apple experiencing a 5% drop, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2025, following claims by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission regarding content suppression [2][3] - Other tech giants also saw declines: Meta Platforms down 2.82%, Amazon down 2.20%, Tesla down 2.62%, Nvidia down 1.64%, Microsoft down 0.63%, and Alphabet (Google) down 0.63% [2][3] Commercial Real Estate Impact - The commercial real estate sector faced a sharp sell-off, with major service companies like CBRE Group down 8.8%, JLL down 7.6%, and Cushman & Wakefield down 11.5% [4] - Analysts noted that the discussion around AI reducing office demand has been ongoing, and the recent sell-off in brokerage stocks has led investors to reassess risks in commercial real estate [4] Transportation and Logistics Sector - The transportation and logistics sector also suffered, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average dropping over 4%, marking its worst day since the U.S. announced tariff increases in April of last year [5] - 17 out of 20 stocks in the Dow Jones Transportation Average declined, with Landstar System and C.H. Robinson falling by 15.6% and 14.5%, respectively, due to concerns over AI reducing labor demand in logistics [6] Economic Data and Interest Rates - Recent labor market data showed a smaller-than-expected decline in initial jobless claims, leading to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts for the year [6] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 8.1 basis points to 4.102%, marking the largest single-day drop since October [7] Commodity Market Performance - International oil prices saw a notable decline, with light crude oil futures dropping by $1.79 to $62.84 per barrel, a decrease of 2.77% [8] - Precious metals also faced pressure, with spot gold down 3.26% to $4,918.36 per ounce and silver down 10.89% to $75.0942 per ounce [8]