什么意思？以前大家更担心通胀，但是现在，就业的下行风险在加大。这种情况一旦持续下去，美联储 就可能要考虑降息了。 他讲得很直接，说劳动力市场看起来还算平衡，但这个平衡不是健康的，是因为劳动力供给和需求都在 放缓。换句话说，企业招人的劲头没以前大了，工人也没那么多。这种情况下，就业数据表面上稳，但 背后其实隐藏着压力。 鲍威尔的逻辑是，如果失业率和其他指标都还算稳定，美联储就可以更谨慎地考虑怎么调整政策。但别 忘了，现在的利率区间还是偏紧的，这本身就在压制经济。所以风险一旦转向，就得重新思考立场。 再说到通胀。他提到关税的影响。鲍威尔的观点是，关税会让物价有一次性上涨，但这个过程不是立刻 体现，而是慢慢渗透进经济。 他强调，这种影响是有限的，不会形成长期的高通胀趋势。也就是说，关税带来的物价压力可能会有， 但不至于让美联储长时间担心通胀失控。 大家好，今天咱们来聊聊美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上说了些什么。这个讲话，市场都盯 得很紧，因为里面可能藏着接下来降息的信号。 综合来看，现在的局面很棘手：短期内通胀风险还是在上行，但就业的风险在下行。这就让美联储陷入 两难。你要说只盯通胀，那可能继续保持紧政策； ...

铝类产业日报 2025/8/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,770.00 45.00 | +140.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,184.00 -11.00 | +46.00↑ -19.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 248,343.00 | +11056.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 193,845.00 | +10870.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 13,250.00 | -800.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 103,364.00 | +14952.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,622.00 | +29.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 478,725.00 | -800.0 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【美元指数早盘微升，9月降息概率飙升】欧洲早盘交易中，美元指数对一篮子货币微升0.1%，至 97.762，在周五急挫至近四周低点97.556后企稳。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 讲话，为9月降息打开政策窗口，引发降息押注激增和美元跳水。 数据显示，利率期货市场定价表明， 9月降息概率从鲍威尔讲话前的约70%飙升至84%。德意志银行分析师在研报中指出，投资者会继续聚 焦美联储官员表态，其内部政策分歧或"仍然显著存在"。 ...

金融界8月25日消息 截至收盘，港股恒生指数涨1.94%，报25829.91点，恒生科技指数涨3.14%，报 5825.09点，国企指数涨1.85%，报9248点，红筹指数涨0.99%，报4388.5点。 个股方面，中华国际大涨超145%，东风集团股份大涨超54%；蔚来-SW涨15.17%，洛阳钼业涨 10.47%，紫金矿业涨6.38%，百度集团-SW涨6.25%，贝壳-W涨6.04%，网易-S涨6.04%，金沙中国有限 公司涨5.85%，银河娱乐涨5.59%，阿里巴巴-W涨5.51%，快手-WR涨5.4%，百度集团-SWR涨5.21%， 快手-W涨5.14%，阿里巴巴-WR涨4.98%，联想集团-R涨4.36%，京东集团-SW涨4.28%，创科实业涨 4.27%，联想集团涨4.1%；欧康维视生物-B跌15.19%，西锐跌16.91%；长飞光纤光缆涨26.76%。 8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化， 当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策处于紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转变可能意味 着需要调整政策立场。鲍威尔讲话后，市场加大对美联储9月降息的押 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to price fluctuations in the crude oil market, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for risk - avoidance [1]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech, the probability of a September interest rate cut is high, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities [2][3]. - The supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations of various commodities such as base metals, energy, and agricultural products vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine have increased, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the US sanctions on Iran, fuel oil futures rose. Global inventories showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals were relatively bullish [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized. Domestic imports and refinery outflows have increased, and the market is expected to remain volatile [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After Powell's speech, the dollar fell, and precious metals rose. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in a volatile range [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price of copper rose. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September is high, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels flexibly [3]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate of aluminum has increased seasonally, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price of aluminum is testing the upper resistance of the shock range [4]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and short - allocated in the medium - term [7]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a support level [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions actively [9]. - **Tin**: The price of tin has recovered. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has fallen, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to control risks [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has risen slightly, and the market is expected to remain volatile [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in excess, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and the spread with AL may narrow [5]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price of steel has rebounded. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price is volatile. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is rising. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weakly volatile. The demand is good, and the price is affected by policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is weakly volatile, following the trend of manganese silicon and affected by policy expectations [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: After the export news was released, the futures price fell. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and exports [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased slightly, and the inventory may accumulate to a historical high in the third quarter. The current situation is weak, and the future expectation is strong [25]. - **Styrene**: The futures price is in a consolidation state. The cost is weakly volatile, and the supply and demand are in a wide - balance state [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene has been boosted by supply and demand. The supply pressure of polyethylene exists, and the demand for polypropylene is slowly recovering [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and the price of caustic soda is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and limited in the long - term [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX has strengthened, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The supply and demand are expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The medium - term focus is on policies and peak - season demand [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the demand for bio - fuels may drive up soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to enter long positions [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US policy on bio - fuels and the Indonesian government's policy on palm oil are the main drivers of price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the bio - fuel field is expected to increase, and the domestic supply and demand are tight [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure, and the price difference with imported soybeans has rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to weather, policies, and trade [38]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn may adjust upward in the short - term, but it may continue to run weakly at the bottom in the long - term [39]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of pigs is slightly stronger. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded slightly. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [41]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton is in a narrow - range shock. The domestic market is worried about new - cotton pre - sales, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are good. The price is expected to be volatile [43]. - **Apples**: The price is volatile. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Timber**: The price is volatile. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price is in a weak shock. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the market will follow the spot price to decline [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen, and the external macro - liquidity is stable. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of treasury bonds is falling. The A - share market is rising, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].

上周前几个交易日美股市场行情低迷，大型科技股遭到市场抛售，但8月22日美联储主席鲍威尔发表重 磅讲话，暗示美联储对降息持开放态度，市场对9月降息的预期升温，美股大幅反弹。从全周来看，道 指涨1.53%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳指跌0.58%。 上周国际油价显著上涨 贵金属期货方面，部分投资者在金价连续下跌后逢低买入，市场对美联储降息预期升温，美元走软支撑 金价，上周国际金价涨幅超1%。 本周市场重点关注美国7月PCE价格指数 本周五，美国将公布美联储关注的关键通胀指标——7月个人消费支出价格指数，也就是PCE价格指 数。经济学家普遍预计，美国7月核心PCE指数环比涨幅将保持在0.3%不变，同比涨幅小幅反弹至 2.9%。分析认为，本周公布的这份通胀数据可能不会成为美联储9月降息的阻碍，但高于预期的通胀数 据将会打压9月之后的降息预期。花旗集团分析认为，关税政策对美国消费价格的冲击比市场预期的有 所延迟，8月份至9月份将是关键窗口期，PCE价格指数同比涨幅或将在今年第四季度达到3.2%。 本周，英伟达将公布最新财报，其业绩指引将成为市场关注焦点。此外，惠普、迈威尔科技、戴尔科技 等科技企业也都将在本周公布最 ...

Group 1 - The current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail investors, with a focus on industrial trends and earnings [2] - The market's settlement funds relative to circulating market value remain in a reasonable range, indicating ongoing profit accumulation [2] - Future market performance will depend on new allocation cues rather than just liquidity and abundant funds [2] Group 2 - Recent market highs are supported by ample liquidity, with positive signals from the movement of household deposits indicating improved domestic liquidity [3] - The consensus on an upward market trend is strengthening, with key factors such as domestic fundamentals and liquidity showing positive changes [3] - Strategic allocations should focus on sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and large financial institutions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance suggests a likely interest rate cut in September, which may improve dollar liquidity and benefit Hong Kong stocks [4] - The current market phase is characterized by a funding-driven environment, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and domestic AI [4] - Analysts have revised upward profit forecasts for various sectors, indicating potential strong performance in those areas [4] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, with a focus on technology growth leading the way [9] - There are opportunities in low-valuation cyclical sectors that align with positive economic expectations [9] - Key areas for investment include Hong Kong internet, semiconductor equipment, software applications, and new consumption [9] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to maintain an optimistic outlook, with liquidity indicators still favorable for equities [6] - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors like semiconductor materials and biomedicine, while avoiding lagging industries [6] - The market sentiment is improving but has not reached overly optimistic levels seen in previous bull markets [6] Group 6 - The current bull market is supported by various sources of incremental capital, including long-term funds and active private equity [12] - The "migration of deposits" trend may become a significant source of new capital for the market [12] - Focus areas for investment should include new technologies and growth sectors, such as domestic AI applications and robotics [12]

8月25日，钢材现货市场以涨为主，期货市场主要品种主力全部上涨，其中螺纹、热卷涨0.9%左右，铁 矿涨2.27%，焦炭涨4.36%，焦煤涨6.48%。因煤矿端安全生产事故再发带动市场做多情绪，今日焦煤大 涨，此外，鲍威尔暗示美联储或在9月降息，市场情绪转强，不过淡季钢市供需仍有压力，明日钢价... 一、多空因素分析 1．国常会：听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策情况汇报 会议指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得明 显成效。要在对政策实施情况进行认真总结评估的基础上，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对 扩大内需的推动作用。要严厉打击骗补套补行为，确保补贴资金用到实处、见到实效。要进一步强化财 税金融等政策支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环境，综合施策释放内需潜力。会议有利于提振 市场信心，利好钢材价格走势。 https://www.cls.cn/detail/2123420 2．8月中旬21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存843万吨，环比增加40万吨 据中钢协，8月中旬，21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存843万吨，环比增加40万吨，上升5.0%。8月中 旬 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上发出强烈的降息信号，但即将公布的就业和通胀数据仍可能改变 9月降息的既定路径。 鲍威尔在周五的讲话中明确表示，劳动力市场面临的下行风险可能"需要调整我们的政策立场"，这为美 联储结束长达八个月的暂停期铺平了道路。美国国债和股市闻讯大涨，2年期和30年期国债收益率利差 扩大至近四年来最高水平。期货市场定价暗示，目前9月降息25个基点的概率约为75%-80%。 但多位美联储官员和华尔街经济学家警告，9月5日和11日公布的8月就业和CPI数据才是决定9月降息的 关键因素。波士顿联储主席Susan Collins公开表示"在下次会议上我们要做什么还不是板上钉钉的事"， 而圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则指出，目前通胀更接近3%而非美联储2%的目标。 关键数据将决定降息节奏 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话为下月降息扫清了道路。他强调高借贷成本带来的风险日益增长，可 能损害就业市场，这意味着最早9月就可能降息。 Capital Economics的Stephen Brown表示，鲍威尔关于"政策处于限制性区间，基准前景和风险平衡的转 变可能需要调整政策立场"的结论清楚表明 ...

财经评论员、专栏作家，2013年度搜狐最佳行业自媒体人。香港大公财经特约评论员、每经智库专栏作家，并多次受邀广东省人民政府发展研究中心等权 威机构撰写多篇学术文章。其作品刊登于香港文汇报、新华社《瞭望》、人民日报海外版等数十家权威报刊。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：郭施亮 以下文章来源于郭施亮 ，作者郭施亮 郭施亮 . 今年9月份 ， 虽然美联储采取降息动作的概率很高 ， 但与去年9月份的降息力度相比 ， 今年可能会采取单次25个基点的降息力度 。 即使如此 ， 当美联储再次开启新一轮降息周期时 ， 将会对以A股 、 港股为代表的新兴市场股市构成积极性的提振影响 。 8月22日 ， A股成功突破了3800点 ， 距离4000点已经不足200点的空间 。 在美联储很可能步入新一轮降息周期的影响下 ， 只要A股政策环境 、 资金面环境保持稳定 ， 那么很可能会在今年冲上4000点 。 美联储宣布降息 ， 可能会成为A股向上突破的催化剂 。 站在当前的市场环境分析 ， 目前A股市场有着多项利好因素的刺激 。 第一项 ...