1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased significantly, causing the gold price to strengthen again. If the Fed restarts the rate - cut channel, the gold price will return to a bull market in the medium and long term, but it is in a box - oscillation pattern in the short term [1][6] - Trump's tariff policies may lead to a stagflation effect, and the optimistic sentiment in the market about the impact of these policies on the economy is fading [2][4] - The weakening of the July non - farm payrolls data has increased the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, and the probability has risen from 40% to 75%. Trump is angry about the non - farm data and blames the Bureau of Labor Statistics [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the international gold price rebounded to $3416 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price rebounded to 781 yuan per gram. Affected by the poor non - farm payrolls data on Friday, the gold price rose again [1][6] Fed Interest Rate Policy - At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth time since early 2025. There were two dissenting votes, indicating deepening internal differences. Fed Chair Powell said future policy adjustments depend on all evidence, and his speech was considered hawkish [1] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump imposed additional tariffs of 10% - 41% on imports from multiple countries and regions. These tariffs may penetrate into economic data in the coming months and cause a stagflation effect [3][4] Non - farm Payrolls Data - In July, non - farm employment increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 100,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The three - month growth rate was as low as 35,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month. The weakening of the employment market has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [5]

Core Viewpoint - Danske Bank analysts suggest that if the Bank of England lowers interest rates as expected, the British pound may react mildly due to market anticipation and the potential for a gradual easing policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Expectations - The Bank of England is likely to lower interest rates on Thursday, with the market widely expecting this move [1] - Danske Bank anticipates that the Bank of England may maintain a gradual easing policy guidance [1] Currency Outlook - The British pound is expected to weaken further, as the Bank of England's rate cuts in 2026 may exceed market expectations [1] - The euro is projected to rise against the pound, with an expected exchange rate of 0.89 within the next 6 to 12 months [1] Economic Conditions - Rising uncertainty and signs of slowing economic growth in the UK are likely to put additional pressure on the pound [1] - The positive correlation between the pound and the US dollar may also contribute to the pound's challenges [1]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管 6 月份消费者价格通胀率已升至接近央行 2% 目标的两倍，但市场普遍预计英国央行将 于周四将基准利率从 4.25% 下调至 4%，并在年底前再次下调利率。 但政策制定者对于潜在价格压力缓解的程度，以及如果不进一步降息，劳动力市场放缓和经济增长乏力是否会导 致通胀在中期内低于目标水平，存在分歧。 以下图表展示了政策制定者在周四决议前可能讨论的部分议题。 全球背景与展望 2022年俄乌冲突后，英国通胀飙升幅度超过欧元区和美国，峰值达11.1%，部分源于其对天然气供暖发电的高度 依赖。2023年通胀大幅回落，2024年9月触底1.7%，但此后反弹力度强于美欧。 5月英国央行预测通胀最早2027年初才能回归目标。6月通胀率升至3.6%(2024年1月以来最高)，部分经济学家预计 将很快突破4%。相比之下，欧洲央行预计欧元区通胀将维持在略低于2%的水平。 通胀预期升温 多数英国央行官员将企业和家庭通胀预期调查视为未来物价走势、薪资要求乃至央行公信力的重要指标。 这些指标过去一年持续攀升：花旗/YouGov长期预期指数接近2022年底(当时整体通胀达两位数)以来最高，央行自 身调查也创2019年 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices remain stable around $3,360 per ounce after a significant increase of 2.2% in the previous trading session, influenced by weak U.S. employment data and trade tariff measures [2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 new jobs were added in July, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, leading to market declines [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen over 25%, with expectations of further increases due to ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains stable, while silver, palladium, and platinum prices have seen declines [2]

8月1日，美国非农就业数据大由利多，远低市场预期，失业率达到4.2%，消息一出黄金原地起飞大夜 60多美金，转眼金价重回3360美元上方。 不仅非农数据给力，美联储利率决议中近30年以来首次出现"反水"，两名官员鲍曼和沃乐支持降息，从 鲍威尔"嘴硬派"阵营倒戈，关于降息的预 上周，黄金跌的人心惶惶，尤其金价刺穿3300美元跌至3268美元，从4月份到现在以3300美元为中轴 线，来回反复的行情搞得多空也没脾气。 桂林山水甲天下，久闻其名，今天抽个时间一睹为快。 ...

12月美国联邦基金利率期货上涨6个基点，暗示年底前降息65个基点。 ...

周度报告-黄金 美国 7 月非农爆冷，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.22%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率降至 1.88%，美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，标普 500 指数跌 2.36%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金小幅溢价。 贵 金 属 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，随着 8 月 1 日对等关税生效日的带来， 美国陆续与贸易伙伴达成协议，墨西哥关税协议将延长 90 天，加 拿大关税从 25%升至 35%，韩国加征 15%关税，印度加征 255 关 税，中美搞成谈判意在将关税再度延长 90 天，上午实质进展。整 体而言关税引发的避险情绪有限，当前的不确定性远低于 4 月， 叠加美联储 7 月利率会议按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔表态鹰派， 黄金出现回调，一度跌破 3300 美金以及 60 日均线。但美联储内 部分歧巨大，鲍曼和沃勒两位理事投票降息，后续特朗普也将提 名更加倾向降息的人选。美国经济数据喜忧参半，首先是二季度 GDP 数 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 非农不及预期，美元转向弱势 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.22%。美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.36%，欧元跌 1.34%，英镑跌 1.2%，日元 涨 0.2%，瑞郎跌 1.08%，澳元、新西兰元、比索、兰特、泰铢 均跌超 1%，金价涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司，VIX 指数升至 20.38，现货商品指数收跌，布油涨 2.9%至 71.4 美元/桶。 ★市场交易逻辑 外 汇 期 货 8 月 1 日对等关税落地前美国陆续与韩国等国家达成协议，中美 关税谈判意在延期 90 天。二季度美国 GDP 增速从-0.5%反弹至 3%，好于市场预期的 2.4%，个人消费支出增速反弹至 1.4%，净 进口从一季度对美国经济的拖累转为最大增速贡献来源，同时 企业开始消化此前囤积的库存，库存投资下降，美国大而美法 案通过后，政府发债增加，三季度融资计划超 1 万亿美元，四 季度亦有 5500 亿美元的净发行计划，下半年财政支出预计对经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

第三，昨晚特朗普还说了一句刷新市场认知的话：若鲍威尔不降息，美联储理事会应"接管控制权"。美 联储理事会有7名理事，鲍威尔是其中之一。目前理事会中已有2人公开支持降息，而昨晚一位理事（库 格勒）宣布辞职，其空缺将由特朗普提名，那么理事会中将至少有3人支持降息，形成"3 vs 3"的局面。 只要特朗普再争取过来一人，就可以在会议上主导政策走向。即使鲍威尔不愿降息，只要其他理事联 手，就能形成多数，强行推动降息。但这样的话，市场会担心"美联储不再独立"。一场大乱，已经开始 了。 来源:金融界 第二，新美联储通讯社发文称，"美联储主席鲍威尔的盟友"纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五接受采访时表 示，他将以"非常开放的心态"参加9月份的降息会议。这是其第一次加前缀来称呼威廉姆斯——美联储 主席鲍威尔的盟友——显然是鲍威尔本人不便发声，就让身边人表态。 周五的非农数据公布，引发了降息预期——市场对美联储9月降息的概率从40%飙升至90%，部分交易 员甚至开始押注美联储会直接降息50基点。 第一，降息预期如此迫切的并非7月非农，而是5月、6月非农数据被大幅下修到了个位数——原来你之 前说的"稳健"，现在告诉我是假的。 ...