美联储政策展望 - Bank of America anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and halt quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - The potential US government shutdown introduces uncertainty into the outlook due to data ambiguity [1]

机构分析师评美国9月CPI：新车价格同比上涨0.8%，为2023年以来的最大涨幅，因此可能存在关税影 响。行业分析人士表示，进口关税带来的更大影响可能要从2026款新车开始显现，这些车型通常在10月 份发布。而我们目前尚不清楚10月份的通胀数据何时会公布。 另外由于美联储已进入10月29日政策决议前的静默期，其官员在决策前不会就周五的通胀数据发表评 论。但这份低于预期的数据似乎不太可能阻止市场已广泛定价的25基点降息。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 今日周一(10月27日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于48.27一线下方，今日开盘于48.45美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报48.17美元/盎司，下跌0.75%，最高触及48.67美元/盎司，最低下探47.96美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 据CNBC报道，美国劳工统计局周五发布的报告显示，9月各类商品与服务价格涨幅低于预期。这份在 政府停摆期间获准发布的唯一官方经济数据显示，整体CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比涨幅达3.0%，均低于市 场预期的0.4%和3.1%。剔除食品和能源的核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比涨幅亦为3.0%，分别低于 ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%[3] - Core CPI for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below market expectations[3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a five-month low of 53.6, down from 55.1 in September[3] Market Performance - As of October 24, U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500, rose by 1.9%, while European STOXX600 increased by 1.7%[16] - Japanese stocks surged following the election of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 3.6%[16] - Gold prices experienced their largest single-day drop in five years, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand[14] Global Economic Trends - Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50, while services PMI increased to 52.6, marking a 14-month high[3] - The UK September CPI remained flat at 3.8%, below the expected 4%, with core CPI slowing to 3.5%[3] - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential for interest rate hikes in the near future[12] Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices rebounded, with Brent and WTI crude oil increasing by 7.6% and 6.9%, respectively[21] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.39%, while the Japanese yen and British pound depreciated against the dollar[24]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed strong performance on October 27, with significant gains in Japan and South Korea, where the Nikkei 225 index surpassed 50,000 points [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 2.18%, reaching 50,376.52 points, while the KOSPI200 and KOSPI indices increased by 2.60% and 2.30%, respectively [2] Individual Stock Movements - In Japan, notable stock performances included Kawasaki Heavy Industries, which surged over 6%, and several other companies like Hitachi and Komatsu, which rose by more than 3% [3][4] - In South Korea, Hanwha's stock jumped over 20%, with Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries also seeing gains exceeding 10% [5] US Market Futures - US stock index futures were also on the rise, with the Dow futures up by over 0.58%, S&P 500 futures increasing by 0.69%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.88% [5][6] Economic Context - Recent US economic data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was below expectations, reinforcing market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its upcoming meeting, with a high probability of further cuts in December [9][10] A-Share Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may stabilize after recent volatility, with a focus on the technology sector as a long-term investment theme [11]

大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21100，基差-125，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌3860吨至 118168吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 现货价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has surged to 99% following the release of September economic data, indicating a potential influx of capital into global markets next week [1] Economic Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, down from 0.4% the previous month, suggesting a cooling inflation environment [1] - Energy prices have seen a slight increase, but housing costs and core prices are declining, easing financial pressure on consumers [1] - The current market sentiment is heavily leaning towards a rate cut, with over $100 billion in bets placed on this outcome [1] Employment and Market Dynamics - The unemployment figure for September stands at 227,000, but the unemployment rate remains high, indicating a need for economic stimulus through rate cuts [3] - Historical context shows that a previous rate cut led to a significant rally in the A-share market, but the current market conditions differ, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 4000 points [3][5] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The market is currently characterized by rapid sector rotation and a lack of new capital inflow, making it challenging to replicate past bullish trends solely based on rate cut announcements [5] - Key sectors to watch include gold, commodities, and technology stocks, which are sensitive to interest rate changes, with gold prices recently reaching $2400 per ounce [7] - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued consumer and pharmaceutical stocks, as well as technology firms with strong performance metrics, while avoiding high-priced stocks [7] Valuation and Investment Outlook - There is a notable valuation gap between U.S. and A-share ETFs, with the Nasdaq ETF priced at approximately 1.8 yuan per share compared to the CSI 300 ETF at 3.6 yuan per share, suggesting a potential preference for U.S. assets [8] - While a rate cut may provide a short-term boost to market sentiment, long-term economic fundamentals will ultimately dictate market performance [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. major stock indices have recovered losses and reached new historical highs, with the S&P 500 index touching 6800 points for the first time [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by positive corporate earnings reports and easing consumer price inflation pressures [1][2] - The upcoming week will feature significant events including the Federal Reserve's decision, earnings from major tech stocks, and the APEC leaders' informal meeting, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than August's 0.4%, while the year-on-year increase rose from 2.9% to 3%, still below Wall Street's expectation of 3.1% [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in August, and year-on-year growth decreased from 3.1% to 3% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 53.6 in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about inflation and high prices [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened, with predictions of two 25 basis point cuts this year and two more in 2026 [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to further rate cuts, monitoring labor market risks while noting that there have not been widespread layoffs or spending reductions [4] - Inflation risks are anticipated to gain more weight in the Federal Reserve's policy considerations as economic downward risks diminish [4] Group 4: Sector Performance - The technology sector led the market with a weekly gain of nearly 2.8%, with IBM notably rising by 9.3% after raising its full-year revenue growth forecast [5] - The energy sector increased by 2.4%, driven by a significant rebound in crude oil prices, while industrials and consumer discretionary sectors also saw gains [5] - Only the consumer staples and utilities sectors experienced slight declines, with decreases of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively [5] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Investor risk appetite has increased, with a net inflow of $9.65 billion into U.S. stock funds, ending a two-week streak of outflows [6] - The focus is shifting towards the upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, which are deemed crucial for market performance [6] - Despite ongoing government shutdown concerns, the market remains optimistic, with key catalysts including tech earnings, U.S.-China trade talks, and the Federal Reserve meeting expected to influence market trends [6][7]

南非媒体报道，涉嫌在今年6月绑架一名中国公民的3名犯罪嫌疑人，10月24日在约翰内斯堡被 南非警方击毙。 报道说，南非国家警察局24日晚发布声明说，豪登省警方当天根据关联此前一起绑架案及一起未遂绑架案 的情报展开行动，在约翰内斯堡帕克敦与嫌疑人发生枪战，3名嫌疑人被击毙。警方还在嫌疑人所驾车辆 中缴获两支非法枪支。 媒体援引警方发言人说法报道，上述3人涉嫌于今年6月绑架一名中国公民，并于上周试图在豪登省绑架另 一名商人。 来源：新华社 责编：李丹 校对：苏焕文 版权声明 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 周末突发！茅台集团换帅 丨 中美经贸磋商在马来西亚开始举行 丨 暴增超7100%！A股公司，密 集利好！ 丨 深夜，全线大涨！美国，重磅发布！降息大消息 丨 央行：维护股市、债市、汇市等金 融市场平稳运行 丨 证监会重要会议！五大部署→ 丨 刚刚！半导体领域大消息，又一芯片龙头IPO过 会 丨 突发！金价跳水 丨 巨额压单！600030，尾 ...

转自：央视财经 本周五，美国公布9月消费者价格指数（CPI），因通胀数据降温，投资者乐观认为这份数据为美联储继续 维持降息路径扫清了障碍、从而提振美国经济，并支撑了股市更高的估值水平。当天，美国三大股指均创 下收盘历史新高，其中道指涨1.01%，史上首次突破47000点，标普500指数涨0.79%，纳指涨1.15%。 尽管美国9月通胀数据持续高于美联储2%的通胀目标，但投资者目前更关注美国就业市场的疲软状态，在 贸易局势紧张与政府"停摆"背景下，市场普遍认为美联储渐进式降息几乎已成定局，预计美联储将在下周 以及12月的利率政策会议上分别再降息25个基点。 24日欧洲三大股指涨跌不一 欧洲市场方面，多家大型公司发布的乐观季度财报，继续提振市场情绪，本周五，欧洲股市涨跌不一，其 中英国富时100指数涨0.70%，法国CAC40指数跌0.0018%，德国DAX指数涨0.13%。 24日国际油价小幅下跌 本周布油涨超7% 原油期货方面，本周五，国际油价小幅下跌。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价 格跌0.47%；12月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格跌0.08%。本周，因美国宣布对俄罗斯最大的两家石油 ...

住房通胀显著降温 当地时间10月24日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，9月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨 0.3%，低于8月的0.4%；同比上涨3.0%，略高于前值的2.9%，但仍低于市场预期的3.1%。剔除食品与能 源后的核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，连续第三个月回落，同比涨幅亦降至3.0%。这份数据在政府拨款中断前 完成采集，被视为美联储下周议息会议前最后一份重要通胀报告。 分析人士认为，通胀涨幅温和为美联储再次降息25个基点打开了空间。尽管能源价格短期上扬，但住房 成本的放缓和核心物价的整体平稳显示通胀压力继续缓解。美元及美债收益率在数据公布后小幅下行， 市场对年内再次降息的预期升温。 住房通胀显著降温，关税效应渐显但总体涨幅可控。 9月能源价格上涨1.5%，为推动整体CPI上行的主要力量，其中汽油价格指数跃升4.1%。相比之下，电 力和天然气价格分别下降0.5%与1.2%。过去12个月，能源价格整体上涨2.8%，但汽油价格仍较去年同 期下跌0.5%。 食品价格环比上涨0.2%，较8月的0.5%明显放缓。家庭食品上涨0.3%，外出就餐上涨0.1%。六大类食品 中，谷物与烘焙食品及非酒精饮料上涨0.7 ...