Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan may hinder Pakistan's access to external financing channels and put pressure on its foreign exchange reserves [1]

下周重要事件与数据预告——中国外储、贸易帐、CPI数据，英美央行利率决议 1. 周一：①数据：欧元区5月Sentix投资者信心指数，美国4月标普全球服务业PMI终值，美国4月ISM非 制造业PMI；②沙特阿美在每月5日左右公布官方原油售价；③中日韩英股市休市。 2. 周二：①数据：中国4月财新服务业PMI，法国3月工业产出月率，法德英和欧元区服务业PMI终值， 欧元区3月PPI月率，美国3月贸易帐，美国4月全球供应链压力指数；②欧洲央行举行中央银行论坛，至 5月7日；③日韩股市休市；④德国新政府就职；⑤美股盘后财报： AMD、Lucid。 3. 周三：①数据：美国API原油库存和EIA原油库存，法国3月贸易帐，欧元区3月零售销售月率，中国4 月外汇储备（待确定）；②EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告；③选举梵蒂冈新教皇的枢机秘密会议开 始；④美国身份证件新规实施；⑤美股盘后财报：迪士尼、Arm、西方石油。 4. 周四：①数据：德国3月季调后工业产出月率，英国4月Halifax季调后房价指数月率，美国初请失业金 人数，美国3月批发销售月率，美国4月纽约联储1年通胀预期；②美联储公布利率决议；③英国央行公 布利率决议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan holds a significant amount of US Treasury bonds as part of its foreign exchange reserves, which is intended to ensure sufficient funds for foreign exchange interventions when necessary [1] Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, confirmed the country's substantial holdings of US Treasury bonds [1] - The purpose of holding these bonds is to maintain adequate funds for potential foreign exchange interventions [1]

Group 1 - China has maintained its position as the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves for nearly 20 years, while the US has been increasing its debt and engaging in financial warfare against countries holding US dollars [1][19] - The US is attempting to strengthen the dollar by raising interest rates, which could lead to economic stagnation if not managed properly [3][11] - Other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, are also affected by US monetary policies, with Japan providing significant financial support to the US despite the risks involved [7][9] Group 2 - China is strategically reducing its foreign exchange reserves and has stopped purchasing gold to counteract US financial maneuvers [1][9] - The US's approach to increasing interest rates is seen as a double-edged sword, potentially leading to financial crises in smaller nations while temporarily stabilizing its own economy [5][16] - The financial conflict is characterized as a battle of interests, with the US trying to alleviate domestic inflation through external financial pressure [11][16] Group 3 - The US's financial strategies are perceived as attempts to pressure China, reflecting a broader geopolitical struggle [19][21] - China's economic resilience is highlighted by its substantial foreign exchange reserves and gold holdings, which provide a buffer against external shocks [23][25] - The current global economic landscape is marked by China's growing influence and the need for cooperative relationships among nations to mitigate unilateral pressures [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China is monitoring recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market and emphasizes that the country's foreign exchange reserves are managed with a focus on safety, liquidity, and value preservation, achieving effective diversification in investment portfolios [1] Group 1 - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market has been noted by the People's Bank of China [1] - China's foreign exchange reserves aim for safety, liquidity, and value appreciation [1] - The investment strategy follows market-oriented and professional principles, allowing for effective diversification [1] Group 2 - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited [1]

马来西亚央行：马来西亚4月15日的外汇储备为1184亿美元，3月28日为1175亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has initiated substantive trade negotiations with Japan, aiming to establish Japan as a model case for agreements with other countries following the recent tariff delay announcement [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan is the first country to engage in substantial trade negotiations with the U.S. after the tariff delay, indicating a strategic choice by the U.S. [1][2]. - The U.S. intends to use Japan as a template for future agreements with other nations, highlighting the importance of this negotiation [2]. Group 2: Potential U.S. Demands on Japan - The U.S. may push Japan to set explicit trade surplus targets, which could force Japan to reduce exports and increase imports, impacting its trade balance [3]. - Other potential demands include pushing for yen appreciation, which could harm Japanese export-oriented companies and hinder economic recovery [3]. - The U.S. might also request Japan to extend the maturity of its U.S. Treasury holdings, limiting Japan's foreign exchange reserve flexibility [3]. Group 3: Japanese Government's Stance - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the importance of not compromising too quickly for a deal, advocating for a careful approach to negotiations [4]. - The potential U.S. demands could significantly impact Japan's financial markets, with warnings of a rapid depreciation of the dollar and a substantial appreciation of the yen [4]. Group 4: Impact on Japanese Economy and Bond Market - A stronger yen could reduce the competitiveness of Japanese exports, adversely affecting manufacturing firms that rely heavily on exports [5]. - Increased fiscal spending, as suggested by the U.S., would require Japan to issue more government bonds, exacerbating supply pressures in the bond market [5]. - The Japanese long-term bond market is already showing signs of instability, with recent spikes in yields indicating market volatility [5]. Group 5: Global Market Implications - Nomura warns of a global bond market imbalance and tightening liquidity risks, which could lead to broader credit contractions [7]. - The recent fluctuations in global stock markets and the widening of high-yield bond spreads indicate ongoing credit tightening [7].

尽管印尼盾贬值，印尼外汇储备仍创历史新高 金十数据4月14日讯，在全球市场动荡重创印尼盾之际，印尼外汇储备上月增加26亿美元，再创历史新 高。印尼央行周一在一份声明中称，3月份外汇储备攀升至1571亿美元，税收和服务收入以及政府收回 外国贷款提振了外汇储备。从上个月开始，印尼还要求自然资源出口商必须将100%以美元计价的利润 留在国内至少一年。外汇储备的增加为货币当局提供了额外的支持，以捍卫今年受到多种因素严重打击 的印尼盾，包括特朗普的关税。上周，印尼盾兑美元汇率跌至有史以来最低水平，超过了1998年亚洲金 融危机时创下的低点。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信称，日本外汇储备的适当规模没有预设标准。我们持有外汇储备，以备需要时进 行外汇干预。 ...