文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 彭阳 周昀锋 王楠茜 王淦 耶鲁研究 表明若美国平均关税税率提升1%，则PCE会提升0 . 1% 。我们测算对等关税若全部落地（不考虑反制措施），美国加权平均关税税 率将提升1 7 . 9%，对应推升美国PCE 1 . 8%左右，会对美国经济产生较大的负面冲击。对等关税落地的时间差或为各个国家与美国谈判的窗 口，并且白宫公告表明"如果贸易伙伴采取重大措施补救非互惠贸易安排并在经济和国家安全事务上与美国保持一致，则降低关税"。当前泰 国、韩国等国家已表示将与美国就关税问题进行谈判。因而最后对等关税最终是否会全部落地还需观察等待，存在部分国家积极谈判后关税税 率下降或被豁免的可能性。 市场避险情绪浓厚，美联储降息预期升温。 特朗普对等关税落地推动1 0年期美债利率大幅下行，美股期货集体跳水，纳指期货跌幅至4%，市 场预期年内美联储降息次数升至3次。考虑特朗普关税落地后将在一季度后的美国通胀中显现，并且市场通胀预期已经在今年一季度明显上 升，因而此轮美联储降息或将较为被动，或会在就业等经济数据明显恶化后才重启降息。 ▍ 大类资产后续如何演绎？ 北京时间4月3日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在白宫 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the transition patterns of six cyclical growth industries: new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, semiconductors, smartphones, mobile internet, and optical modules, proposing an investment framework of "cash flow improvement → capacity construction → profit release" to identify the conversion nodes from thematic consensus to performance realization [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Framework - Thematic investment focuses on the period from "concept germination" to "narrative consensus," relying on market imagination of long-term prospects to drive valuation increases, emphasizing unrefuted growth expectations [2]. - Cyclical growth investment captures "industry transition momentum" by identifying mismatches between cash flow improvement and low ROE during periods of unclear narrative consensus, establishing an odds advantage [2]. - The article utilizes the Geske option model to quantify the non-linear value of technological generational differences, anchoring the pricing boundaries of thematic investments [2]. Group 2: Industry Review - New Energy Vehicles: The evolution of China's new energy vehicle industry shows a clear three-stage path: feasibility verification starting in 2008, product breakthrough with mass production and battery technology iteration, and penetration explosion leading to a valuation system reconstruction [5][6]. - Photovoltaics: The Chinese photovoltaic industry has experienced three cycles characterized by policy-driven global installation surges, domestic policy support leading to grid parity, and a current phase of high growth driven by carbon neutrality and structural overcapacity [12][19]. - Semiconductors: The Chinese semiconductor industry has undergone three transitions, starting with basic production line construction, followed by accelerated policy-driven autonomy, and currently focusing on advanced process research and development amid US-China tensions [23][24]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - The article suggests focusing on long-term investment opportunities in technology manufacturing fields such as AI+, intelligent driving, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, future energy, and advanced semiconductor processes [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Cathay Biotech Co., Ltd. is conducting a private placement of A-shares, which will significantly increase the control of its major shareholder, Shanghai Yaoxiu, from 20.00% to 35.29% after the issuance, thereby consolidating the actual control of the company by Xiucai Liu's family [2][20]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The total number of shares to be issued is 137,911,755, which does not exceed 30% of the total share capital before the issuance [12][19]. - The issuance price is set at 42.97 CNY per share, adjusted from an initial price of 43.34 CNY due to previous dividend distributions [14][13]. - The total funds raised from this issuance amount to 5,926,068,112.35 CNY, with a net amount of 5,914,724,993.63 CNY after deducting issuance costs [12][26]. Group 2: Shareholder Structure - Post-issuance, the actual control of the company by Xiucai Liu's family and controlled enterprises will increase to 44.04% [20]. - The major shareholder, Shanghai Yaoxiu, will have its shareholding increased significantly, enhancing its control over the company [2][20]. - The shareholding structure complies with the listing conditions as per the relevant regulations [2][20]. Group 3: Lock-up Period and Trading - The shares issued will be subject to a lock-up period of 60 months, during which they cannot be transferred [15][27]. - After the lock-up period, the shares will be listed and traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board [27]. Group 4: Company Overview - Shanghai Cathay Biotech Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of new bio-based materials, primarily focusing on bio-based long-chain dicarboxylic acids and bio-based polyamide products [6][7]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with international firms such as DuPont and Evonik, leveraging its leading position in the global market for bio-based long-chain dicarboxylic acids [7][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant merger and acquisition in the semiconductor sector, highlighting the potential for a new wave of technological growth and investment opportunities in the A-share market, particularly in the context of increasing domestic demand for semiconductor equipment due to Western restrictions [4][6]. Group 1: Market Context - The combined market capitalization of the companies involved in the merger exceeds 250 billion [4]. - The urgency for domestic semiconductor replacement is increasing due to Western restrictions, leading to a rise in the sector's overall market sentiment [4]. - A national venture capital fund with a lifespan of 20 years and a target size of 1 trillion yuan will be established to support strategic areas such as AI, quantum technology, and 6G [4]. Group 2: M&A Dynamics - Mergers and acquisitions have historically been a breeding ground for significant stock price increases, with examples like Giant Network's acquisition of Century Cruise leading to over a 10-fold increase [7][8]. - Since the introduction of the "M&A Six Guidelines" in 2024, there has been a noticeable acceleration in M&A activities, resulting in substantial stock price increases for companies like Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical and Zhiguang Technology [9]. Group 3: Company Profiles - The target company specializes in providing comprehensive semiconductor equipment and process solutions, holding a leading position in the domestic photoresist coating and developing machine sector, with a market capitalization of approximately 18 billion [9]. - The acquiring company is a leading domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment enterprise, recognized by major players like SMIC and Huawei, and aims to fill product gaps in areas such as coating and advanced packaging through this acquisition [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Lukang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 6.233 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 60.30% to 395 million yuan [2][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached 6.233 billion yuan, up from 6.147 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth of 1.41% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 395 million yuan, significantly increasing from 246 million yuan in 2023, representing a growth of 60.30% [4]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains was 209 million yuan, which is a 19.32% increase from 175 million yuan in the previous year [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 33.31% to 403 million yuan compared to 604 million yuan in 2023 [4][5]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 8.49% to 3.918 billion yuan from 3.612 billion yuan at the end of 2023 [4]. Product and Market Performance - The growth in sales revenue was driven by the enhancement of the "two strongest and six characteristics" product structure, with rapid increases in revenue from diabetes and cardiovascular products [4]. - The company improved its market share, with 16 products ranking first in the domestic market [4]. - International trade also contributed to the overall performance improvement [4]. Non-Recurring Gains and R&D Investment - The increase in net profit was partly due to non-recurring gains from land compensation related to the South District's urban redevelopment, which contributed 152.2 million yuan to asset disposal income [5]. - The company increased its R&D investment to 402 million yuan, achieving technological breakthroughs in innovative drugs, biomanufacturing, and high-end formulations [5]. - The company aims to expand its product lines and strengthen its biomanufacturing sector in the future [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current job market challenges and opportunities, highlighting the contrasting experiences of individuals in declining industries versus those in emerging sectors like AI. It emphasizes the importance of adaptability and leveraging new tools for job searching in a rapidly changing environment [21][22][25][39]. Group 1: Job Market Challenges - The job market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in industries like e-commerce and enterprise services, where profit margins are shrinking and job opportunities are limited [22]. - Individuals like Mi Lan and Wendy face difficulties in finding suitable positions, with many applications yielding little to no response, reflecting a saturated job market [8][12][22]. - The pressure of age and career gaps is influencing hiring decisions, with companies favoring younger candidates [14]. Group 2: Emerging Opportunities - Despite the challenges, sectors such as AI are witnessing a hiring boom, with high salaries being offered for positions like deep learning researchers, where annual salaries can reach 1.26 million [25]. - The government is focusing on nurturing emerging industries, including low-altitude economy, biomanufacturing, and AI, which are expected to replace traditional sectors and create new job opportunities [27]. - The article suggests that individuals should explore opportunities in less saturated markets, such as cross-border e-commerce, to find growth potential [23]. Group 3: Job Search Tools - The introduction of "Job Elevator AI" aims to assist job seekers in navigating the job market by providing access to a curated list of high-potential companies and roles [31][39]. - The platform includes a comprehensive database of over 10,000 companies, including unicorns and emerging startups, to help users find suitable job matches [35][41]. - Features like resume evaluation and personalized job recommendations are designed to enhance the job search experience, making it easier for candidates to identify their strengths and areas for improvement [46][52].

Group 1 - A500 Index ETF (159351) experienced significant net subscriptions, with over 500 million shares net subscribed in a single day, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] - The trading volume of A500 Index ETF reached 3.075 billion yuan, maintaining high investor interest despite a slight market adjustment, with a turnover rate of 20.82%, the highest among similar products with over 10 billion yuan in size [1] - The fund has seen a cumulative net inflow of over 850 million yuan over four consecutive trading days, indicating strong demand [1] Group 2 - Major institutions predict that attention on leading companies will continue to rise as the earnings report disclosure period approaches, with a shift from "liquidity bull" to "fundamental bull" expected in 2025 [2] - The A500 Index ETF is positioned as a tool for investors to capture structural opportunities in the A-share market, focusing on new productivity sectors such as AI, smart transportation, and biomanufacturing [2] - The A500 Index, tracked by the ETF, consists of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, providing a balanced industry distribution and serving as a means for investors to access representative A-share companies [2]

2019年，科技部批复支持天津市人民政府和中国科学院共建国家合成生物技术创新中心，促进合成生物 科技成果产业化。在创新中心的支持下，产业化之路越跑越顺。李德茂团队与天津瑞普生物技术股份有 限公司签订了技术许可合同，目前，企业已开展1.5万吨级生产线的建设。 微生物蛋白"跑"上生产线 8年前，天津工业生物技术研究所提出"向微生物要蛋白"的设想。微生物蛋白是以葡萄糖、淀粉等为原 料，利用微生物发酵方式生产的蛋白。在发酵过程中，细胞犹如一个微型工厂，微生物则是"活体机 器"，在精准设计的生物程序下完成复杂合成任务。经过微生物菌种选育优化、发酵生产、食品化加工 等环节，微生物能"化身"蛋白粉、蛋白肉、蛋白能量棒等产品，生产效率是植物的500倍、动物的2000 倍。 生物制造，是以生物质或者二氧化碳等为原料，利用生物体机能生产人类所需要的食品、药 品、化学品、材料、能源等产品的先进生产方式，具有原料可再生、生产过程清洁高效等特 点，被称为工业可持续发展最有希望的技术。 如何快速将科技成果推向生产线？ 实验室里的微生物，怎样走上老百姓的餐桌？ 这是中国科学院天津工业生物技术研究所研究员李德茂和团队成员研究的课题。这几年， ...

Domestic Policy News - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, maintaining the same target as 2024, with a budget deficit rate of 4% [9][10][12] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds and 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support state-owned commercial banks in capital replenishment [10][12] - The monetary policy aims for "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" to maintain ample liquidity in the economy [10][22] Support for Private and Technology Enterprises - The central bank and five departments support private enterprises in capital market development, emphasizing equal treatment for all types of ownership enterprises [2][8] - The government is expanding the scale of re-loans for technological innovation and technical transformation, increasing from 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan [38] - The establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology is planned [40] Real Estate Sector - The financial regulatory authority emphasizes support for stabilizing the real estate market, including expanding financing coordination mechanisms and ensuring project delivery [3][24][42] - The government is implementing measures to support the transformation of urban villages and the renovation of dilapidated housing [42] Consumer and Employment Policies - The government is promoting consumption through initiatives like expanding the range of subsidies for trade-ins and encouraging financial institutions to increase personal consumption loans [4][26] - Employment support plans are being organized to release job opportunities in advanced manufacturing and new consumption hotspots [41] Local Policies - Local policies focus on emerging industries, promoting investment and consumption, and providing childbirth subsidies [45]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a series of catalysts, with traditional core assets in A-shares accelerating their clearance, potentially leading to operational turning points as the economy recovers [2][3] - Companies planning dual listings are anticipated to see their market performance improve following the successful launch of their Hong Kong listings [3] Group 2: Investment Themes - Focus on sectors with high certainty in performance, particularly in AI and high-energy density batteries, which are seen as unique industrial themes in A-shares [3][6] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in advanced technology sectors such as AI, smart driving, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, future energy, and advanced semiconductor processes [4][6] Group 3: Specific Industry Insights - The lawn mowing robot industry is entering a golden period of development, driven by technological changes and price reductions, with significant market potential in Europe and the US [8] - The demand for magnesium alloys in China is expected to grow due to rich domestic production, continuous penetration of lightweight needs in downstream industries like automotive and robotics, and favorable pricing [10] Group 4: Policy Impact on Birth Rate - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies is seen as a key measure to address low birth rates, which could enhance birth rate-related sectors such as maternal and infant chains, dairy products, and reproductive health services [12][16] - The expected rollout of child-rearing subsidies by 2025 could lead to significant fiscal implications, with projected funding requirements reaching 901 billion, 1363 billion, and 1825 billion from 2025 to 2027 [19]