Core Viewpoint - The LPR has remained unchanged for three months since its reduction in May, with industry experts suggesting that there is little necessity for short-term policy adjustments, although further declines in LPR are still possible in the future [1][8]. Group 1: LPR Stability and Market Expectations - The LPR quotation has remained stable for three consecutive months, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year [5]. - The recent stability in policy rates has maintained the pricing foundation for LPR, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming the new pricing anchor [5]. - The current low levels of corporate and personal loan rates, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, indicate a decline of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [5]. Group 2: Future LPR Adjustments - Analysts predict that the LPR linked to housing loans may be adjusted downward in the second half of the year to stabilize the real estate market [2][13]. - Despite the potential for future adjustments, the necessity for a short-term reduction in LPR is considered low, with any adjustments likely to be postponed [8][10]. - The overall monetary policy remains supportive, but the likelihood of aggressive easing measures in the short term is low, as the economy shows signs of recovery [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, suggesting that the pressure to meet annual growth targets is manageable [7]. - The People's Bank of China is in a "comfortable zone" regarding multiple economic targets, indicating no immediate need for aggressive monetary easing [7]. - The potential for further easing measures, such as interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, may be influenced by external factors, including actions by the Federal Reserve [12][11].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision was influenced by stagnant economic recovery in Q2 and anticipated further cooling of inflation [1] - Current inflation is near the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range (1% to 3%), with expectations of a decline to around 2% by mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cumulatively reduced interest rates by 250 basis points, one of the largest reductions among major Western economies [2] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with various central banks taking different stances on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rates but is widely expected to initiate its first rate cut of the year in September [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's exports in July experienced a significant decline, marking the largest year-on-year drop in four years, primarily due to weakened exports to the United States, raising concerns about the country's economic growth prospects [1][3][4]. Export Performance - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of a 2.1% decline, and representing the largest drop since February 2021 [1][4]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a notable decrease of 10.1%, although this was an improvement from June's 11.4% drop [4][6]. - The automotive sector was particularly hard hit, with exports of cars and parts plummeting by 28.4% and 17.4%, respectively, further exacerbating the decline in overall export figures [3][4]. Trade Agreement Impact - A trade agreement reached on July 22 between Japan and the U.S. included a 15% tariff on certain goods, with automotive tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%. However, the impact of these tariffs will be reflected in August's data, while July's figures still show the ongoing pressure from tariffs [4][6]. Economic Growth Challenges - The decline in exports poses new challenges for Japan's economic growth, which had previously shown resilience with a GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year in Q2, driven by net exports [5][6]. - Continued export weakness raises concerns about Japan's ability to sustain economic expansion, especially as domestic consumption remains sluggish [6]. Monetary Policy Implications - The persistent decline in exports is expected to influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions, with market expectations leaning towards a cautious stance in the upcoming policy meeting on September 19 [6].

"从根本上说，LPR报价连续三个月保持不动，主要源于上半年宏观经济稳中偏强，短期内通过引导 LPR报价下调强化逆周期调节的必要性不高，当前处于政策观察期。"王青说。 期货日报网讯(记者曲德辉见习记者肖佳煊)中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心今日公布，2025 年8月贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为：1年期LPR为3.0%，上月为3.0%；5年期以上LPR为3.5%，上月为 3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 中国人民银行日前发布的《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》显示，上半年货币政策逆周期调节 效果较为明显，金融总量平稳增长，社会融资成本处于低位，信贷结构不断优化，人民币汇率在合理均 衡水平上保持基本稳定。报告同时明确了下一阶段货币政策的主要思路：落实落细适度宽松的货币政 策。 "8月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受期货日 报记者采访时表示，8月以来政策利率(央行7天期逆回购利率)保持稳定，意味着当月LPR报价的定价基 础没有变化，已在很大程度上预示8月LPR报价会保持不动。另外，受反内卷牵动市场预期等影响，近 期市场利率有所上行，在商业 ...

8月20日，中国人民银行公布最新LPR报价。 据中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年8月20日贷款市场报价报价利率(LPR)为：5年期以上LPR为3.5%，前值为 3.5%;1年期LPR为3%，前值为3%。 以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 央行数据显示，7月利率低位运行，新发放企业贷款利率约3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利率约3.1%，分别较去年同期下降45、30个基点。 这也是央行本月内第二次开展的买断式逆回购。 资料显示，买断式逆回购是央行2024年10月推出的新工具，是在央行每日根据一级交易商需求连续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外 投放的中长期资金。 买断式逆回购可以使央行可以更加及时、精准地调节市场流动性。 值得一提的是，今年以来，央行已经数月公开市场进行了买断式逆回购操作，还实现了连续3个月加量续作。 其中，8月有4000亿3个月期和5000亿6个月期买断式逆回购到期。 月内两次开展买断式逆回购 8月15日，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月 (182天)。 也就是在今年5月，LPR迎来了年内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of August 20, 2025, indicating a stable monetary policy stance by the People's Bank of China [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections LPR Rates - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, effective until the next announcement [1][3]. - The LPR has remained stable for three consecutive months following a 10 basis point decrease in May [3]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary policy measures since May, aimed at boosting confidence and stabilizing expectations in the economy [5][6]. - The central bank's report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning financing growth with economic growth targets [6][7]. Economic Context - Analysts suggest that external uncertainties and domestic demand issues necessitate a supportive monetary policy to counter economic downward pressures [7]. - There is an expectation of potential further reductions in policy rates and LPR in the upcoming months, influenced by both domestic conditions and external factors such as U.S. monetary policy [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The LPR rates for both 1-year and 5-year terms remain unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, indicating a stable monetary policy environment as of August 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR has not changed for three consecutive months following a 10 basis point reduction in May 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented 12 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 9 policy interest rate reductions since 2020, leading to a decrease of 115 basis points for the 1-year LPR and 130 basis points for the 5-year LPR [3]. - The PBOC's monetary policy has shown effective counter-cyclical adjustments, with stable growth in financial totals and low social financing costs in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity is sufficient and aligning social financing growth with economic growth and price level expectations [4]. - Analysts suggest that the emphasis will be on implementing existing policies effectively rather than introducing new aggressive measures, with a potential delay in further rate cuts [5]. - External factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may create favorable conditions for further monetary easing in China [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Challenges - The current economic environment faces challenges from external shocks and insufficient domestic demand, necessitating a supportive monetary policy to counteract downward economic pressures [6]. - It is anticipated that the PBOC will maintain a loose monetary stance throughout 2025, with expectations of a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut and a 20 basis point interest rate reduction [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual varieties, ratings are as follows: Gold - ★ (suggesting long - term strategic allocation), Silver - ★ (short - term attention to support level, long - term long), Copper - ★ (long - term bullish), Zinc - ★ (short - term bearish, long - term wait for shorting opportunity), Lead - ★★ (short - term bearish), Tin - ★ (short - term rebound), Aluminum - ★★ (short - term bearish), Nickel - ★★ (short - term bearish), Industrial Silicon - ★ (short - term bearish), Polysilicon - ★ (high - level shock, callback to buy), Lithium Carbonate - ★ (high - level shock, hold long positions) [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term, due to the significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue and the decline of risk - aversion sentiment, the disk lacks upward momentum. Long - term, with the loose monetary policies of major countries, central banks' continuous gold purchasing, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern, there is a need for asset allocation in gold, so it should be strategically allocated [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term, there are concerns about liquidity, and it is more elastic. It is affected by gold fluctuations. Long - term, with strong global liquidity and re - industrialization demand and limited supply increase, the upward trend is unchanged. Short - term, pay attention to the performance around 9150, and long - term, go long [1]. - **Copper**: Short - term, the upcoming global central bank annual meeting and the possible hawkish statement of Powell may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, causing the US dollar to rebound and copper prices to be under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Long - term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, with the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, it is bullish [1][7]. - **Zinc**: Short - term, due to insufficient demand and inventory accumulation, the Shanghai zinc is under pressure and in a weak shock. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, waiting for shorting opportunities on rebounds [1][11]. - **Lead**: Short - term, with the recovery of primary lead production and the weakening impact of environmental protection on secondary lead in Anhui, supply is relatively loose, and downstream battery consumption is poor, so lead prices are under pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and a slight increase in the domestic refined tin smelting industry's start - up, and the tin ingot inventory reaching a high level in the off - season, tin prices show a short - term rebound [1]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term, with stable bauxite supply at home and abroad, inventory accumulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas during the off - season, and poor performance in terminal consumption and exports, aluminum prices are under pressure [1][15]. - **Nickel**: Short - term, with the weakening price of nickel ore in the Philippines and the accumulation of domestic refined nickel social inventory, and the weakening of inventory reduction driven by stainless - steel production cuts, nickel prices are under pressure [1][19]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term, affected by the new energy sector's fluctuations, with no major supply - demand contradiction in itself, it is under obvious pressure from the top and tests the lower support [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Despite a bearish fundamental outlook and expected inventory accumulation in August, due to the photovoltaic industry symposium held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is expected to be in high - level shock, and buy on callbacks [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply contracts unexpectedly, and with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, wait for the strengthening of the de - stocking drive. Hold long positions. It is in high - level shock in the short term [1][23]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Global parties are seeking a geopolitical cease - fire, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting may have a radical stance, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold and silver prices [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The market expects Powell to have a radical stance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The US housing starts in July reached a five - month high, contrary to expectations. There is progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire. Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low, while long - term, gold may continue a long - bull trend due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may have support around 766 in the short term. Pay attention to long - order entry after stabilization. Silver has greater short - term emotional fluctuations and is adjusting downward. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 9000. Also, pay attention to the tri - party meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper lost the 9700 - level mark, and Shanghai copper was under pressure and declined. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Recently, there have been disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. With the increase in smelting maintenance in August - September, refined copper production may decline marginally. It is currently the off - season, and downstream demand is weak, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas exchange copper inventory has increased slightly, and domestic social inventory has rebounded slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the approaching central bank annual meeting, the US dollar rebounds, and copper prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and then go long lightly after the price stabilizes. Long - term, copper is bullish. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [77500, 79500] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is in a weak shock, testing the lower - level support [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The production of refined zinc in China has increased significantly. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has been rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. However, due to the tariff increase on galvanized steel in Vietnam and the domestic off - season, the demand of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market transaction is dull, and inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, due to the off - season and inventory accumulation, zinc is in a weak shock. Hold previous short positions, and some can take profit on dips. Pay attention to the support at the 22000 - level. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range [21800, 22400], and LME zinc focuses on [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling back [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - trade policies are still uncertain. The cost has decreased, and inventory has increased. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and the inventory accumulation speed of mainstream ports is expected to slow down. Domestic alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. Short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are running weakly, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure and falling back [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion and losses. Domestic refined nickel production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The production cut of stainless - steel has weakened, and the inventory reduction effect is weakening. The terminal market is still in the off - season, and stainless - steel still faces over - supply pressure [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a slight reduction in positions, and closed down 1.79% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals have not shown obvious improvement. The total inventory and production have decreased slightly, but the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed the shutdown, the market expects the synchronous shutdown of other mines in Jiangxi. With the approaching peak season of terminal demand, downstream material factories start to stock up. The vulnerability of the inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Hold long positions in the range [86500 - 88000] [23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current US labor market has weakened significantly, and inflation still faces risks brought by tariffs, which allows the Fed to make relatively cautious statements on monetary policy in the near term. However, the Trump administration's interference with the Fed's independence is more significant, and Fed officials' statements on inflation vary greatly. After the release of non - farm data lower than expected, the objectivity of US economic data will be weakened, and Fed officials' views on monetary policy will have a greater impact on market expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting this week, and the precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. US July PPI Data Shows Inflation Concerns, but Fed Officials' Statements Differ - US July CPI and PPI data show concerns about imported inflation. The overall CPI was lower than expected due to the decline in oil prices in July, while the core CPI was higher than expected mainly due to the sharp increase in used - car inflation and the impact of home - furniture prices. The US July PPI and import price data far exceeded expectations, indicating that the Trump administration's tariff policy has begun to have a significant impact on US prices [4]. - Fed officials' statements on inflation vary. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes that the data shows an "unsettling trend" in inflation, but he hopes to wait for more economic data and advocates further interest - rate cuts under the conditions of slowing inflation and a stable labor market. St. Louis Fed President Musalem believes that tariffs are being transmitted to inflation, and a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September does not match the currently announced economic data [5]. II. The US Labor Market Has Weakened, Focus on Powell's Statement This Week - The US July seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls change was 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The non - farm payrolls data for May and June were significantly revised downward, and government employment growth was almost "eliminated." In addition, the US manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were both lower than expected [8][11]. - After the release of the non - farm data, Trump fired the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on the evening of August 22. His speech will have a significant impact on the trend of gold and silver prices. The market currently expects an 83.1% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, and there is also a pricing for another interest - rate cut in December. The precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to buy gold and silver on dips [11].

中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年8月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR 为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。1年期LPR及5年期以上LPR均已经连续3个月持平。 央行在8月15日发布的《2025年第二季度货币政策执行报告》中明确指出，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势 和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配。 报告提到，进一步完善利率调控框架，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用， 持续强化利率政策的执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，推动社会综合融资成本下降。 报告还提到，畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转，把握好金融支持实体经济和保持自身健康性的平衡。发 挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，用好结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，尽管上半年宏观经济稳中偏强，但综合考虑各类国内外因素，下半年货币政策还会 ...