2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 5 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 观点与策略 | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注正极实际减产情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息发酵 | 6 | 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 132,850 | 460 | 4,850 | 1 ...

流动性方面，刘晨明团队指出，"2026年多数国家货币和财政双宽松，流动性宽松或迟早出现。一旦流 动性出现反转，来自全球资本活水的重新注入与境内流动性渠道的拓宽，港股有望开启新一轮上涨。尤 其要注意是否会出现流动性反转+春季躁动共振，形成向上贝塔的机会。" 广发证券刘晨明团队看好港股市场补涨，"港股正从传统的顺经济周期，逐步转向AI应用、新能源等代 表硬科技的主赛道。恒指新经济相关的权重从17%提升至接近50%"。 刘晨明团队表示，前期压制港股的主要是流动性/情绪因素（日本息交易平仓、美联储鹰派降息表述、 基石投资者解禁等），市场情绪可能已经调整到位，恒科在120~250日均线随时有反弹可能性。 恒生指数高开，恒生科技指数涨0.33%，国证港股通科技指数涨0.36%，快手-W涨近6%，阿里巴巴、中 芯国际、哔哩哔哩-W、百度集团-SW、小米集团-W涨幅靠前。 华夏基金建议关注国证港股通科技指数，选股范围为港股通标的，不受QD额度限制，因而相对恒生科 技更具备流动性优势，同时在高端制造、生物科技及互联网行业分布相对均衡，"软硬兼备"。国证港股 通科技指数PE估值目前为26.45倍，位于过去10年的41%分位左右的 ...

Satellite Internet - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been accepted, aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan, with a focus on reusable rockets [1] - Starlink announced it will provide free broadband service to the people of Venezuela for one month [3] Artificial Intelligence - Wall Street is seeing active IPOs and financing, with companies like Biran Technology experiencing a significant stock price increase, and Suiyuan Technology completing IPO guidance [4] - Google and Anthropic reported strong demand for TPU, while there are rumors of significant price increases for NVIDIA and AMD GPUs starting next month [4] Semiconductor - The Big Fund has increased its stake in SMIC H-shares, and TrendForce has revised upward its expectations for DRAM and NAND contract price increases in Q1 2026 [5] - TSMC has received U.S. permission to transport equipment to its Nanjing plant and plans to raise prices for advanced processes [6] Robotics - Reports suggest that Tesla's Optimus V3 mass production review has been completed, with seven Chinese companies as core suppliers, targeting a production capacity of 50,000 to 100,000 units by the end of the year [7] New Energy - Tianci Materials has released an annual forecast, confirming that Q4 performance is on track [9] Nuclear Fusion - The all-superconducting tokamak experiment has achieved significant physical breakthroughs, providing a basis for high-density operation [10] - The first nuclear fusion conference of the year will be held from January 16 to 17 in Hefei [11] Autonomous Driving - Tesla owners have achieved "full self-driving across the United States" for the first time [13] Digital Currency - State-owned banks will start paying interest on digital RMB real-name wallet balances at current account rates from January 1 [14] Market News - The New Year speech mentioned advancements in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, aerospace, and robotics across multiple sectors [15] - Companies are required to disclose annual performance forecasts by January 31 [16] - Market pricing clues for 2026 indicate sustained high growth, broad recovery, U.S. inflation, and Chinese domestic demand [17] Market Observation - On the last trading day before the holiday, the transaction volume reached 2.05 trillion yuan, with indices closing in the green but not reaching 4,000 points [18] - The satellite internet sector successfully crossed the year-end, with funds remaining in the market, and there is potential for healthy pullbacks to provide better entry opportunities [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance its role in supporting green low-carbon transformation and the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, aligning with national strategies for high-quality development and green finance [1][3][4] Group 1: Green Development Initiatives - In 2025, the company successfully launched futures and options for platinum and palladium, expanding its offerings in the new energy metal futures sector [2] - The correlation of spot prices for industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon reached 0.99, 0.97, and 0.94 respectively, indicating strong market integration [2] - The introduction of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) for trading in industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon marks a significant step in opening up the market [2] Group 2: Market Function and Risk Management - The company has been recognized as a qualified central counterparty (QCCP) by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, enhancing its operational standards and risk management capabilities [2] - The focus will be on innovation in product offerings, particularly in new energy, new materials, and carbon emissions, to better meet industry needs [3] - The company plans to deepen market services and expand its coverage of industrial bases, ensuring that futures tools are accessible to more enterprises [3] Group 3: Future Goals and Strategies - The company is committed to high-quality implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and aims to contribute to the construction of a financial powerhouse and the modernization of China [4] - There is a focus on enhancing international collaboration, including exploring overseas settlement price authorization and building overseas delivery warehouses [3] - The company emphasizes maintaining a strong risk management framework to ensure stable market operations while promoting high-quality development [3]

来源：市场资讯 来源：晨明的策略深度思考 本文作者：刘晨明/余可骋 报告摘要 日积跬步：（1）本轮港股资产上涨具备基本面支撑，由于较A股更少的传统经济板块，自2024年下半 年开始，在内外需共同企稳、宏观政策发力托底的背景下，港股盈利已经出现结构性修复迹象，只是阶 段性被外卖补贴战打破。（2）中美战略性关键科技领域中，绝大部分核心公司在港股有上市。高端制 造业、科技的成长正从"单点突破"迈向"多点爆破"。映射至资本市场，港股正从传统的顺经济周期，逐 步转向AI应用、新能源、半导体等代表硬科技的主赛道。恒指新经济相关的权重从17%提升至接近 50%。（3）随着外卖补贴战退坡以及AI驱动的广告及云服务成为新的增长点，恒指2026年业绩增速有 望回升至10.8%，港股上涨可能从流动性驱动转向盈利和流动性共同驱动。 水涨船高：一是港股汇聚的优质企业如停泊其中的巨轮，估值相对较低，坚实的船体（全球竞争力）与 满载的货物（成长潜力）在低水位下尤为突出，二是目前压制港股的主要是流动性/情绪因素（日本息 交易平仓、美联储鹰派降息表述、互联网高新技术税传言、基石投资者解禁、IPO抽水、公募新规 等），市场情绪可能已经调整到位， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：广发期货研究 证监许可【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月4日 星期日 事件导读： 国内元旦假期尚未结束，1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉 总统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞拉。总统特朗普接受媒体电话采访并在海湖庄园举行新闻发布会， 会议中他直白地表示，接下来美国要控制委内瑞拉，也要一并控制委内瑞拉的全球最大石油储备。据 Statista统计，委内瑞拉有约3000多亿桶的石油储备，占该资源全球总量的近五分之一。委内瑞拉的石油 储量不仅多于石油王国沙特，还差不多能达到美国的6.7倍。联合国秘书长古特雷斯对委内瑞拉近期局 势升级深感震惊。联合国安理会将于当地时间1月5日10时就美国对委内瑞拉军事行动举行紧急会议。 （一）宏观金融展望：市场风险偏好或承压，贵金属避险需求或重启 元旦假期间，全球权益市场表现出现一定分化，欧洲及亚太包含港股、中概股指数多数收涨，而美元指 数及美股则多回调（图1），同时离岸人民币汇率破7后续创2024年以来新高。这一方面是由于特朗普将 在1月任命新美联储 ...

Government Initiatives - The State Council is accelerating the introduction of comprehensive management measures for the recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries, as part of the Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan [2] - Ten departments, including the State Administration for Market Regulation, have released the "Green Product Certification and Labeling Management Measures," defining green products based on their resource, energy, environmental, and quality attributes [2] Transportation and Data Integration - The Ministry of Transport is promoting the integration of transportation data with resources from public security, energy, tourism, satellite remote sensing, and other sectors to enhance public services and support traditional industry transformation [3] Technological Advancements - Beijing has published an updated directory of green low-carbon advanced technologies, which includes 168 technologies aimed at promoting their application [4] - Shanghai aims to cultivate and attract ten leading enterprises in eVTOL, industrial-grade drones, and new energy aviation by 2028, targeting a core industry scale of approximately 80 billion yuan [4] Energy Sector Developments - China's largest oil and gas field, Changqing Oilfield, has maintained a natural gas production of over 50 billion cubic meters for four consecutive years, with an expected annual output of 51.42 billion cubic meters in 2025 [7]

因此，不少相关产业的大型企业选择参与杉杉集团及其全资子公司实质合并重整一案。据悉，此前消息参与杉杉集团二次重整投资人招募的意向投资人 共有12组，大部分为联合体，涉及企业总数超20家，包括 方大炭素、中国宝安、天齐锂业、TCL科技、京东方、湖南盐业集团 等。彼时知情人士透 露："述标前，方大炭素、湖南盐业集团、天齐锂业等5组意向投资人退出了，最终是7组意向投资人提交方案进入述标。" | 2026未来产业新材料博览会 | （FINE），围绕机器人、汽车、无人机、数据中心、航空航天、AI、新能源等未 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 来产业共性需求特设6大展区， | N3 先进电池与能源材料展区 固态 | | 聚焦 | | | 电池 | 、钠电池、钙钛矿 | 等 | | ， | | 欢迎咨询：18957804107 | | | | | 【DT新材料】 获悉 ，1月4日， 方大炭素 披露《关于终止参与杉杉集团及其全资子公司实质合并重整的公告》。 方大炭素称，公司按照杉杉集团有限公司（简称"杉杉集团"）管理人发布的公告要求，提交了报名材料，缴纳了尽职调查保证金5000 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

【导读】回顾假期大事，汇总十大券商最新研判 兄弟姐妹们啊，回顾一下元旦假期的大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判。 假期大事 1.灰犀牛！美国抓获马杜罗及其夫人并带离委内瑞拉 当地时间1月3日凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯等多个地点发动代号为"绝对决心行动"的军事空袭 与地面突击，并推翻了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其夫人西莉亚·弗洛雷斯，且将会接管该政权进 行交接。 美国总统特朗普对美国媒体称，美国将深度介入委内瑞拉的石油产业。特朗普称，美国将"管理"委内瑞 拉直至实施"安全"过渡。他还表示，马杜罗及其妻子都将面临美国司法审判。特朗普没有为美国的占领 设定时间限制。他声称何时将委内瑞拉交还给委内瑞拉，将由美国决定。 中方呼吁美方确保马杜罗总统夫妇人身安全，立即释放马杜罗总统和夫人，停止颠覆委内瑞拉政权，通 过对话谈判解决问题。 2.港股开门红！ 1月2日，港股全线大涨，截至收盘，恒生指数涨2.76%，恒生科技指数涨4%。受到港股开年大涨的提 振，美股市场的中概股也集体大涨。作为市场焦点，纳斯达克中国金龙指数单日大涨4.38%，创去年5 月12日以来的最大单日涨幅。 3.公募三阶段降费改革全部平稳落地 《 ...