Market News and Important Data - The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that officials were divided on interest rate cuts, with views falling into three camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [1] - The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1st, and an agreement may be reached in the next few days. According to British media, the US and the EU will sign a temporary framework agreement, but the treatment will be worse than that of the UK. Trump sent tariff letters to eight countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 766.82 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 310,838 lots, and the open interest was 181,258 lots. In the night session, it opened at 767.50 yuan/gram and closed at 771.02 yuan/gram, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,940 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,899 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 613,081 lots, and the open interest was 327,567 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,880 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,870 yuan/kilogram, down 0.33% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.42%, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.48%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 9, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,504 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 795 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 439,015 lots, up 79.07% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 95 lots, and the short positions remained unchanged. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contracts on the previous trading day was 921,222 lots, down 28.68% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 947.37 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 31.09 tons to 14,966.24 tons [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 9, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 12.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -590.21 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.17, down 0.61% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 89.67, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 38,972 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,922 kilograms, up 57.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 19,910 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 188,940 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The market is concerned about the uncertain tariff policy, and the US Treasury yield has been rising for five consecutive days and is now gradually slowing down. The market trend is currently tangled, and the gold price is expected to be range-bound in the short term [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The gold-silver ratio is relatively high. If there is a need for hedging in the future, silver may be more favored by investors due to its relatively lower price compared to gold. Therefore, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing increased demand for safe-haven assets due to market volatility, fiscal concerns, and the expanding U.S. deficit, while the strong performance of the U.S. dollar is limiting silver's upward potential [2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The dollar index is trading around 97.30, while spot silver opened at $36.34 per ounce and is currently around $36.40 per ounce [1]. - On July 9, the dollar index closed at 97.49, with spot silver down 0.99% to $36.38 per ounce, while other precious metals showed mixed results [1]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from over two-week highs to 4.34%, providing some support for silver prices [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly seeking silver as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and unclear trade policies [2]. - The strong dollar is reducing silver's attractiveness to overseas buyers, impacting its price potential [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that spot silver may decline to a range of $36.28 to $36.32 per ounce, having breached the critical support level of $36.36 [3].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading at $3309.89 per ounce, an increase of $8.60 or 0.26% from the previous value [1] - The announcement of tariffs on 14 countries by the U.S. starting August 1 has raised concerns about the economy and inflation, impacting gold prices [1] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, boosted by non-farm payroll data, and rising U.S. Treasury yields have increased the holding costs of gold [1] - Despite long-term benefits from central bank gold purchases, there has been a short-term reduction in gold ETF holdings [1] Group 2 - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are slightly opening, with gold prices supported by the lower band, indicating initial bullish momentum [2] - Key resistance is at $3350 per ounce, while $3280 per ounce serves as critical support [2] - The MACD indicator shows a convergence of the death cross, with green bars narrowing, while the RSI indicates oversold conditions with a rebound in the 51-40 range, suggesting strong bullish momentum [2] Group 3 - In the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding slightly, indicating a demand for volatility, with gold prices rebounding from the lower band [2] - The MACD shows a continuous convergence of the death cross, with narrowing green bars, and the RSI indicates a rebound in the 51-44 range, highlighting a clear demand for a bullish reversal [2] - The 1-hour chart shows an expanding Bollinger Band, with a clear short-term bullish rebound, and the MACD indicates a golden cross with increasing red bars [2] Group 4 - For bullish positions, aggressive traders can enter near the $3280 support level, while conservative traders may wait for a bounce at $3250 [4] - For bearish positions, aggressive traders can consider shorting near $3400 resistance, while conservative traders may wait for confirmation at $3450 [4] - The futures market shows varied trends, with the main contract for Shanghai gold initially declining before rebounding, and significant fluctuations in gold T+D [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that after the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, U.S. Treasury yields decreased significantly, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield falling by over 6 basis points and the 2-year Treasury yield declining by more than 3 basis points [1]

金十数据7月9日讯，美债收益率在连续五个交易日上涨后基本持平，市场正在观望特朗普提出的关税威 胁有多大可能真正落地，以及这些政策将对通胀和经济增长造成何种影响。美联储将于美东时间下午2 点（北京时间周四凌晨2点）公布会议纪要。与此同时，白宫正向美联储施压，要求其降息，而特朗普 也在物色接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选。此外，美东时间下午1点将举行10年期国债拍卖，此前一 天的3年期美债标售需求较为疲软。 特朗普关税悬而未决，美债收益率在连续上涨后趋于平稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to decline, reaching a low of $3282, influenced by expectations of high tariffs in the U.S. which may increase inflation and lead the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates, thereby supporting rising U.S. Treasury yields and stabilizing the dollar near a two-week low [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a high early in the day but entered a consolidation phase, eventually breaking below the key support level of $3297 and continuing to decline to around $3287, indicating a weakening short-term trend [3] - The current market sentiment is fragile due to trade tariff concerns, with a focus on the FOMC meeting minutes for insights into the future direction of the dollar and precious metals [1][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action has disrupted the bullish structure of the right shoulder in a four-hour head and shoulders pattern, with the daily candle closing bearish, suggesting potential for further declines [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3300-$3307, while support is found at $3280-$3277, indicating a preference for buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3][4] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on a pullback to $3280 with a stop loss at $3270 and a target of $3300-$3320 [4] - An alternative strategy recommends selling on a rebound to $3320 with a stop loss at $3330 and a target of $3295-$3280 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices testing resistance levels and showing potential for further declines due to a rebound in the US dollar index and changing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of July 9, international spot gold has fallen below $3,300 per ounce, currently trading at $3,287.75 per ounce, down 0.39% [1]. - The COMEX gold is trading at $3,299 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, which have shifted due to recent employment data and economic policies [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [7]. - The "Great Beautiful" fiscal plan signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may have short-term positive effects on the economy but could exacerbate long-term debt burdens [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing trade negotiations and tariff agreements between the US and countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are contributing to market uncertainty, which may support gold prices as a hedge against currency risk [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their potential impact on the economy remains a significant factor influencing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold ETFs and related funds are highlighted as accessible investment vehicles, offering low costs and diverse trading options, which may attract investors looking to hedge against economic volatility [11]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns is emphasized, suggesting that investors may consider regular investments in gold ETFs [11].

Group 1 - US stock market shows mixed performance with small-cap stocks outperforming, while the Dow Jones lagged behind [2][8] - Nvidia reached a new high with a market capitalization approaching $4 trillion [2][8] - Freeport-McMoRan, a copper mining company, saw its stock price surge over 8.8% after Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports [2][14] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index closed down 4.46 points, a decrease of 0.07% [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 165.60 points, a decline of 0.37% [4] - The Nasdaq Composite index increased by 5.95 points, a rise of 0.03% [5] Group 3 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.81% [10] - AMD shares increased by 2.24% [11] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.71%, outperforming the major US indices for two consecutive days [12] Group 4 - Energy sector ETF increased by 2.69%, while financial sector ETF decreased by 0.89% [7] - Solar stocks, including SunRun, fell over 11% due to tightening clean energy tax regulations proposed by Trump [15]

机构分析认为，法案进一步提升美国未来债务压力，预计这将导致中长期长端美债利率中枢上行。 受关税方面消息影响，美国股市主要股指7日全线下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.94%，标准普尔500 种股票指数下跌0.79%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.92%。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔7日表示，欧盟仍在争取于7月9日前与美国达成一项原则性的双边贸易协 议，目前欧盟与美国仍在继续接触。 吉尔说，欧盟始终致力于达成一项有利于欧盟企业、消费者和全球经济的协议。此外，欧盟也已准备好 应对所有结果的选项，包括反制清单，但暂不打算启动该程序。 新华财经北京7月8日电美国国债收益率周一（7月7日）延续涨势，10年期美债收益率涨3.36个基点，报 4.38%；2年期美债收益率涨1.46个基点，报3.89%。2年期与10年期美债利差走阔约2个基点。超长期美 债收益率涨幅超过4个基点，收益率曲线趋向陡峭。 特朗普7月4日签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，标志着这一备受争议的法案正式成为法律。 美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40% 不等的关税。特朗普在信中警告上述国家领导人称，如果想 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" and maintained [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] 2. Core Views - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the US medium - and long - term fiscal pressure. The act, a tax reform bill, includes reducing corporate taxes, cutting social welfare, canceling clean energy subsidies, and increasing the national debt scale. It may further expand the US fiscal pressure [1] - The June non - farm payroll data shows resilience, but structural issues need attention. The labor market remains resilient overall, but the increase in government employment is unsustainable, and the resilience of the non - farm data is still to be observed, with a risk of weakening in the future [2] - The derivatives market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts in September and December. The strong non - farm payroll data has increased the possibility of the Fed continuing to wait and see and reduced the probability of an interest rate cut this month [2] - The US Treasury bond interest rate first decreased and then increased, and the term spread narrowed slightly. It is recommended that investors mainly allocate short - and medium - term US Treasury bonds, preferably 2 - 5 - year varieties, and be cautious about allocating long - duration bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Bond Benchmark Interest Rate - The US Treasury bond interest rate curve first decreased and then increased in the past two weeks. The 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bond interest rates changed by - 3/-6/-5/-4/-3/-2/-2bp respectively. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.35% and 3.88% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed slightly to 47bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding market expectations. Private employment decreased by 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, lower than expected. The non - farm data for April and May was revised up by 16,000 [2] - The derivatives market expects two interest rate cuts in September and December. The probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged in July is 95%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5%, the probability of a cut in September is 73%, and the probability of a total 50 - bp cut by December is 90% [2] 3.3 Exchange Rate - No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only chart information about non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, etc. 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US Treasury bond yield increased in the past week, mainly affected by the strong June non - farm payroll data. The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" is expected to add $3.4 trillion in deficits to the US in the next decade, which may put upward pressure on the medium - and long - term US Treasury bond yields [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade, 3 initial ratings, and 1 rating withdrawal [93] 3.6 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, there were 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers by three major international rating agencies. For example, on July 6, 2025, Fitch gave an initial rating of BBB - to Minsheng Commercial Bank International Holdings Co., Ltd.; on June 26, 2025, Fitch downgraded Longfor Group Holdings Limited from BB to BB - [93][94]