Group 1 - The U.S. Commerce Department is set to release the November core PCE index year-on-year, which was delayed due to government shutdown impacts on statistical work [1] - Financial institutions expect the core PCE to be 2.8%, above the moderate inflation standard of 2% [1] - The accuracy of the November data is in question due to the ongoing government shutdown affecting data collection [1] Group 2 - The long-term trend indicates that PCE data is stabilizing, with expectations for the core PCE to drop below 3% by May 2024, marking the arrival of the "2" era [3] - The November core CPI year-on-year is reported at 2.6%, down from 3% in September, suggesting a potential decline in the PCE data as well [3] - There remains a possibility that the final PCE value could be below the expected 2.8% [3] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index continues to show a volatile trend, with a range between 96.34 and 100.23, and has not effectively broken through these levels [6] - Recent price movements indicate that the dollar's rebound is being replaced by a downward trend, complicating bullish sentiment [6] - Gold and silver prices are influenced by the PCE data, primarily through fluctuations in the dollar index, with gold reaching a new high of $4888.39 and silver at $95.86 [6][7] Group 4 - The weak state of the dollar provides an opportunity for gold and silver prices to rise, with expectations that if the PCE data does not significantly exceed expectations, the upward trend in precious metals will likely continue [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged during the upcoming meeting, with a significant reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts this quarter, potentially delaying monetary easing until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May [1] - A survey of 100 economists indicated that all respondents expect the Fed to keep the benchmark rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% during the January 27-28 meeting, with 58% predicting rates will remain unchanged throughout the first quarter [1] - This marks a notable shift from last month, where most economists anticipated at least one rate cut in March [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Shenwan Hongyuan, U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, with potential core PCE year-on-year rates of 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% depending on the tariff transmission rate [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for the first half of the year suggests resilient growth, stable employment, and peak inflation, leading the Fed to potentially pause rate cuts, while the second half may see a resumption of rate cuts as deflation begins [2] - Key economic data to watch includes the UK CBI retail sales balance, U.S. Q3 GDP final annualized rate, initial jobless claims, personal spending, and PCE price index for November [2] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to a new historical high, driven by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions, although recent comments from President Trump eased some of these tensions, limiting further gains [3] - The current trading price for gold is around 4820, with resistance expected near 4870 and support at approximately 4770 [3] Group 4 - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, trading around 158.70, supported by short covering and a rebound in the dollar index due to easing trade tensions, although concerns over potential Bank of Japan intervention limited upside [4] - Resistance is noted around 159.50, with support at approximately 158.00 [4] Group 5 - The USD/CAD pair rebounded slightly, trading at around 1.3820, supported by short covering and technical buying near the 1.3800 level, while rising oil prices constrained further gains [5] - Resistance is expected near 1.3900, with support around 1.3700 [5]

【环球网财经综合报道】1月22日，国际贵金属市场在周二凌晨迎来剧烈波动，黄金价格在地缘政治紧张局势和美联 储货币政策不确定性的双重推动下，首次突破每盎司4800美元大关，创下历史新高；而白银价格则在触及历史高位后 回落，呈现宽幅震荡格局。 黄金狂飙突破 4800 美元，避险需求成核心驱动力 据《环球邮报》报道，全球地缘政治形势推动下，黄金价格首次突破每盎司4800美元，铂金创纪录高位，钯金微跌， 白银价格一度触及历史高点。 分析称，白银期货合约的推出以及贵金属市场供需结构的变化是导致价格剧烈波动的原因之一。 尽管短期出现回调，但机构对白银后市依然乐观。ANZ商品策略师Soni Kumari表示："考虑到我们看到的价格动力， 白银涨至三位数看起来是可能的。"不过她也提醒投资者，价格不会单向移动，未来可能会出现价格修正，且市场波 动性可能更高。 高盛一月内两度上调目标价，看涨情绪高涨 市场分析人士指出，全球地缘政治形势的复杂变化是推动金价飙升的主要原因。RJO Futures高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示："市场存在一些担心错过这波交易的风险（FOMO），鉴于全球地缘政治形势，目前黄金和白银价格 的 ...

Group 1 - The announcement by President Trump to withdraw the tariff threat against Europe led to a significant market reaction, with traders quickly covering their positions and a notable drop in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by nearly 4 basis points [1] - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a rebound, with yields across various maturities declining; the 10-year yield fell to 4.2528%, and the 30-year yield decreased to 4.8765% [1] - The strong demand for the recent $13 billion 20-year Treasury auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86, indicates robust market interest despite previous concerns stemming from a major Swedish pension fund's sell-off of U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 2 - Trump's shift from a confrontational stance to a cooperative approach regarding tariffs and discussions with NATO signifies a change in market sentiment, moving from headline risk to negotiation risk for investors [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to downplay the impact of Danish pension funds selling U.S. Treasuries, labeling the scale of investment as insignificant [2] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have stabilized, with a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting [2] Group 3 - A recent Reuters survey of economists indicates that a majority expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate within the current range of 3.50%-3.75% until at least the first quarter of 2026, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, with the first half being influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, and the second half potentially experiencing a deflationary trend [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Effects on Inflation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," the risk of re-inflation in the U.S. has been manageable, and it has not become a major issue for monetary policy or capital markets [2]. - The inflation effect of tariffs has been systematically lower than expected, with the core inflation driven mainly by core goods while core services continue to cool down [2]. - As of October 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. was only 12.4%, below the theoretical rate of 15.7%, indicating limited room for tariff increases due to various factors [3]. Group 2: Cost Accounting of Tariffs - Companies have been absorbing more tariff costs, which has helped keep inflation pressures manageable. As of September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers bore 6%, 37%, and 57% of the tariff costs, respectively [4]. - The uncertainty of tariff policies and weakening domestic demand in the U.S. have constrained price increases, with companies delaying price hikes due to excess imports [4]. - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the momentum for companies to pass on tariff costs has increased, with expectations for further transmission in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Future Inflation Risks - The report predicts that if the tariff transmission rate approaches 70%, inflation may show stronger "stickiness," with core PCE year-on-year expected to be 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% under different transmission rate scenarios of 90%, 70%, and 50% respectively by the end of 2026 [5]. - Potential risks beyond tariffs include cyclical and metal inflation on the upside, and productivity improvements and tariff exemptions on the downside [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely linked to inflation risks, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts in the first half of 2026, followed by 1-2 rate cuts in the second half as deflation begins [5].

综合新华社、央视新闻等报道，美国总统特朗普21日在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲时表示： "上周我们从委内瑞拉获取了5000万桶原油。" 美国正在大力发展核能。 汽油价格很快就会低于每加仑2美元。 欧洲的"方向不对"。 批评欧洲某些地方已经面目全非了。 格陵兰是北美洲的一部分。正寻求立即就收购格陵兰岛事宜展开谈判。除了美国，没有哪个国家有能力确保格陵兰岛的安全。 批评丹麦在格陵兰岛问题上"忘恩负义"。 格陵兰岛是美国的"核心国家安全利益"。美国并不打算、也不需要通过武力手段解决格陵兰问题。 此外，特朗普当天还表示，美国一直受到北约的不公平对待。另据智通财经报道，特朗普谈北约时还称，美国从不索取任何东西，也从未得到任何东西。 市场方面，现货黄金瞬间短线下挫约40美元，随后又继续上涨，在高位震荡，最新报4849.49美元/盎司。 1月21日晚，美股三大指数高开高走，截至发稿，道指涨418点，纳斯达克指数涨超1%，标普500指数涨0.99%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，一度涨超2.0%，最新报7750.95点。截至发稿，百度涨7.12%，爱奇艺涨7.03%，万国数据涨5.66%，哔哩哔哩涨5.05%，金 ...

每经编辑｜程鹏 综合新华社、央视新闻等报道，美国总统特朗普21日在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲时表示： "上周我们从委内瑞拉获取了5000万桶原油。" 美国正在大力发展核能。 汽油价格很快就会低于每加仑2美元。 欧洲的"方向不对"。 批评欧洲某些地方已经面目全非了。 格陵兰是北美洲的一部分。正寻求立即就收购格陵兰岛事宜展开谈判。除了美国，没有哪个国家有能力确保格陵兰岛的安全。 批评丹麦在格陵兰岛问题上"忘恩负义"。 格陵兰岛是美国的"核心国家安全利益"。美国并不打算、也不需要通过武力手段解决格陵兰问题。 此外，特朗普当天还表示，美国一直受到北约的不公平对待。另据智通财经报道，特朗普谈北约时还称，美国从不索取任何东西，也从未得到任何东西。 当地时间1月21日，特朗普在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上发表讲话。图片来源：视觉中国 市场方面，现货黄金瞬间短线下挫约40美元，随后又继续上涨，在高位震荡，最新报4849.49美元/盎司。 1月21日晚，美股三大指数高开高走，截至发稿，道指涨418点，纳斯达克指数涨超1%，标普500指数涨0.99%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，一度涨超2.0%，最新报7750. ...

Core Viewpoint - Strong economic growth and persistent inflation data are reshaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with a significant likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting and delaying any rate cuts until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May [1] Economic Growth and Inflation - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience, with a third-quarter growth rate of 4.3%, leading economists to revise the growth forecast for the year from 2.2% to 2.3%, which is notably above the Fed's estimated non-inflation growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The preferred inflation measure of the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is expected to remain above the 2% target for the remainder of the year and for each calendar year until 2028 [2] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at an average of 4.5% for the year [2] Interest Rate Outlook - Some analysts suggest that the Fed may even consider raising rates based on current economic data, but the baseline forecast still points to maintaining the status quo [3] - Following the leadership change at the Fed, there may be an attempt to implement an additional 50 basis points cut later in the year [3] Political Factors - Political factors are increasingly interfering with the Fed's decision-making process, with significant internal disagreements among policymakers and external pressures remaining high [4] - The ongoing criminal investigation against Powell and Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook are contributing to market uncertainty [4][5] - The selection process for the next Fed chair is expected to face unprecedented challenges due to the criminal investigation, complicating the appointment of candidates inclined towards rate cuts [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance, showing a structural differentiation. The lithium carbonate futures limit - up became the market focus, and the precious metals sector was strong, while the coking coal and coke futures led the decline, and most energy - chemical products fell. The overall market fluctuations revolved around the reconstruction of the supply - demand of sub - industries and macro - risk sentiment [14]. - The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool, consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, and the Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June [14]. - In China, policies focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, corporate loans and bond financing in social financing data were stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure were weak due to seasonality, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - In the short term, there is a risk of continued adjustment of risk assets; in the medium term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4708.6, with a daily decline of 0.5%, a weekly decline of 0.31%, and a monthly increase of 2.37%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had different price changes and fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed certain price increases and fluctuations on January 20, 2026 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.0423, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 63 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 3.42 bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 0.31 bp [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 20, 2026, different industries had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a monthly increase of 12.65%, while the defense and military industry had a daily decline of 3.21% [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - On January 16, 2026, overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, NYMEX natural gas had a monthly decline of 16.22%, and COMEX silver had a monthly increase of 26.72% [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - Various domestic commodities such as crude oil, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations on January 20, 2026. For example, lithium carbonate had a daily increase of 8.93% and a monthly increase of 31.86% [11]. 3.5 Macro - Essentials - **Today's Market**: The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance. The rise of lithium carbonate was driven by the rise of energy - storage demand and the reversal of the supply - demand pattern, and precious metals were supported by geopolitical risks [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy expanded moderately, inflation cooled, consumption was "K - shaped", industrial production rebounded, and the Fed postponed the interest - rate cut expectation to June [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: Chinese policies focused on new fields, exports were resilient, social financing data showed strong corporate financing, but real estate and infrastructure were weak, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - **Asset Views**: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January, and the first interest - rate cut is postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while mid - term long positions in some assets are recommended [14]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, waiting for incremental funds; stock index options and treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [15]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile, focusing on factors such as shipping company's resumption of flights and cargo volume [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies [18]. - **Agriculture**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise or decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policies [18].

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 ● 本报记者葛瑶 金价后市仍有上涨空间 Teves表示，黄金市场正经历结构性变化，多元化配置已成为推动金价上涨的核心动力。这一趋势体现 在机构投资者、零售投资者和官方部门等各类需求主体。在宏观环境充满不确定性、政策可预测性下降 的当下，投资者迫切需要分散风险，而黄金正是这一趋势的最大受益者。 从价格走势看，瑞银对今年年末金价的基准预测为45 ...