Group 1: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.19% to 839.74 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.41% to 10,043.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.13% to 3,729.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.01% to 42.92 US dollars/ounce [1] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.04%, and the US dollar index was reported at 96.65 [1] - For precious metals, prices and trading volume data for various contracts such as Au(T+D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF, Ag(T+D), London Silver, SLV Silver ETF, etc., showed different degrees of increase or decrease [3] - Detailed data on gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other aspects of COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., were provided, along with changes and historical quantiles [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - The key retail data released yesterday exceeded market expectations, suppressing the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The month-on-month value of US retail sales in August was 0.6%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%. After the data was released, precious metal prices declined in the short term [1] - The most important event currently influencing the Fed's monetary policy is the Fed's interest rate meeting early tomorrow morning. The strong retail data will reduce the probability of an overseas recession in the medium term. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be a "preventive interest rate cut" rather than a "recessionary interest rate cut," which is a more significant positive factor for silver with strong industrial attributes [1] Group 3: Historical Performance and Current Situation - Historically, gold has benefited from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver price increases have been driven by expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy [2] - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting has marked the beginning of a new round of interest rate cut cycles by the Fed. The possibility of Hassett becoming the Fed Chairman means a fundamental change in the nature of the Fed's monetary policy, shifting from a decision based on employment and inflation data to a policy tool of the US President. Both in terms of expectations and reality, the current macro - background is favorable for the price increase of precious metals, especially silver [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 816 - 860 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9,710 - 10,800 yuan/kilogram [2] Group 5: Graphical Analysis - Multiple graphs were presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, actual interest rates; the relationship between Shanghai Gold price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai Gold; the relationship between COMEX silver price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai Silver; the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and prices; the total positions of gold and silver ETFs; and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [7][9][11]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 16, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures varieties had different trends on September 16, including the performance of coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, soybean meal, etc., and their future trends are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [3][4][5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3087.04, up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated and sorted on September 16, closing at 4523.34, down 9.72 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 16, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1748.0, up 70.6 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1248.5 yuan, up 68.0 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, but due to the concession of raw coal, the profitability of coking plants is acceptable, and the supply of coke has increased. For coking coal, most coal mines in Shanxi that stopped or reduced production due to the parade have resumed production, and the supply from the origin has increased [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated widely on September 16, rising first and then falling, and closing slightly higher. At night, it fluctuated slightly lower [5]. - Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the sugarcane output is expected to decrease slightly compared with the previous year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's continuous rainfall has caused supply concerns, and Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on September 16. At night, it fluctuated and sorted [6]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The US soybean crop rating decreased compared with the previous week, and the harvest progress was faster than the five - year average [6]. - Domestically, on September 16, the soybean meal M2601 main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the price maintains a volatile and sorted trend [6][8]. Live Pigs - On September 16, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13160 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the short - term demand is difficult to form a strong support. The futures price of live pigs may maintain a low - level volatile trend [8]. Palm Oil - On September 16, palm oil futures continued to rebound slightly within the range, and the main contract P2601 closed with a small阳线 with an upper shadow line, up 0.64% from the previous day [9]. - Malaysian research institution Kenanga Research said that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The domestic copper concentrate supply and demand are expected to be tight, which will potentially support the price. However, the high copper price restricts the downstream demand [10]. Cotton - On the night of September 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13940 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 130 lots compared with the previous day. Some early - maturing varieties in Xinjiang have started to be picked [10]. Logs - On September 16, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 798.5, with the lowest at 794.5, the highest at 813, and closed at 806.5, with a decrease of 796 lots in positions. Pay attention to the support at 800 and the pressure at 813 [10]. Iron Ore - On September 16, the iron ore 2601 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.82%, closing at 803.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On September 16, the asphalt 2511 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.38%, closing at 3411 yuan. The current demand is not strong in the peak season, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [12]. Steel - On September 16, rb2601 closed at 3166 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3402 yuan/ton. The market is mainly based on supply - demand structure, but there may be policy - driven fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [12]. Alumina - On September 16, ao2601 closed at 2979 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction cannot be resolved, and the continuous expansion of supply suppresses the price. The fundamentals are weak [13]. Aluminum - On September 16, al2510 closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The demand has improved, but the inventory is still in a state of accumulation, and whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [13].

Macro - Trump's intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve is primarily through three avenues: 1) Nominating a Federal Reserve Chair who aligns with his views, expected to be nominated in November this year and take office in May next year; 2) Adjusting the personnel structure of the Federal Reserve Board to exclude "outsiders" like Cook, while appointing "loyalists" like Milan to strengthen his influence; 3) Intervening in the appointment of regional Federal Reserve presidents, whose terms will expire at the end of February next year [1] - With the new Federal Reserve Chair's appointment, 4 out of 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board will be "loyalists," giving Trump greater influence, which implies: 1) On a macroeconomic level, the expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 may exceed the current market pricing of three cuts, with policy rates potentially falling below the neutral level of 3%, leading to a shift from a soft landing to moderate expansion in the U.S. economic cycle; 2) On the asset class level, excessive rate cuts under political pressure may weaken dollar interest rate expectations and widen dollar credit risks, corresponding to declines in 2-year Treasury yields and the dollar index, while the decline in 10-year Treasury yields may be hindered by widening term premiums [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board with a vote of 48 to 47 [1] - Milan, supported by Trump, will participate in the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 16-17 [1] - Concurrently, a federal appeals court ruled to prevent President Trump from removing board member Lisa Cook before the Fed's meeting, allowing her to also attend [1] - The participation of both Trump-supported Milan and Trump-opposed Cook in the upcoming policy meeting is noteworthy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected employment report released by the U.S. Labor Department has created a dilemma for the Federal Reserve ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, causing anxiety among global investors [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The core data from the report indicates that the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 [3]. - The report also revised previous data, notably adjusting June's non-farm employment from an initial 147,000 to -13,000, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [3]. Labor Market Analysis - The current U.S. labor market is characterized by a "distorted balance," reflecting weak supply and demand [6]. - On the demand side, the employment diffusion index stands at 49.6, indicating that more companies are reducing hiring than increasing it, primarily due to high interest rates and previous tariff impacts [7][8]. - On the supply side, the willingness of individuals to seek jobs is also low, with many older workers opting for early retirement and changes in immigration policies reducing the labor force [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The labor market's supply-demand gap fell to -203,000 in August, the first negative value since May 2021, illustrating the dual weakness in both supply and demand [10]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - The employment data is just the first of several key indicators before the September FOMC meeting, including the initial non-farm adjustment on September 9, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 [13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty with two potential scenarios: a "recession trade" if subsequent data shows significant downward revisions and weak inflation, or a "hawkish rate cut" if employment remains weak but inflation stays high [17][20]. - The market's expectation of nearly three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, and if the Fed's actions do not meet expectations, both interest rates and the dollar could reverse course [20].

随着米兰就任美联储理事，特朗普总统对于美联储货币政策的干预能力在提升，但是特朗普总统尚未获 得对于美联储的完全的掌控权。不过，随着美联储重启降息，美元的走软趋势大概率会延续，而且走软 的强度会加深。目前，美元指数已经降至97附近。笔者认为，美元指数仍然有相当的下降空间。这会在 美国资本市场，乃至全球资本市场掀起不小的波澜，引发一系列的动荡。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 据媒体9月16日消息，由美国总统特朗普提名的斯蒂芬-米兰的美联储理事一职已经获得美国参议院投票 通过批准。这意味着，米兰可以参加本周三（9月17日）的美联储9月议息会议，并拥有投票权。 一段时间以来，特朗普总统一直在向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，希望美联储尽快降息。市场普遍认为，在 即将召开的美联储9月议息会议上，美联储会重启降息进程，不过降息的幅度可能为25个基点。 不过，就在昨天（9月15日），特朗普总统预测，美联储本次降息幅度可能会达到50个基点。但是，从 美联储主席鲍威尔一贯在货币政策方面的谨慎态度 ...

与此同时，美国参议院15日批准白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事，填补阿德里安 娜·库格勒8月辞职留下的空缺，完成其将于明年1月结束的任期。 米兰计划在担任美联储理事期间继续担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席。（完） 据美国媒体报道，哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院当日作出上述裁决。美联储将于16日至17日召开货币政策 会议。如最高法院未裁决，库克将参加美联储此次议息会议并投票。 新华社华盛顿9月16日电 美国联邦上诉法院15日阻止总统特朗普解除美联储理事莉萨·库克职务，允许她 暂时继续担任美联储理事。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board with a vote of 48 to 47 [1] - Milan is expected to participate in the Federal Reserve meeting starting on September 16, which is anticipated to discuss a new round of interest rate cuts [2][3] Group 1 - Stephen Milan previously served as a senior economic policy advisor at the U.S. Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University [2] - The Federal Reserve announced on August 1 that Governor Kugar would resign, effective August 8, and Trump nominated Milan to fill the vacancy [2] - The Federal Appeals Court ruled to prevent Trump from dismissing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the monetary policy meeting [3] Group 2 - Lisa Cook faced allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denied, and has filed a lawsuit against her dismissal [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on September 16 and 17 is widely expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts [3]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the US economy in August was weak, with rising unemployment and inflation, but consumer spending is expected to be a bright spot, with retail sales projected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month [1] - High-income households are playing a crucial role in supporting consumer spending despite economic weaknesses, as increased household wealth from a bull market and rising home prices allows for continued spending [1] - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, with a significant downward revision of nearly 1 million jobs in employment estimates for 2023-2024 [1] Group 2 - Retail sales have shown resilient growth over the past year, with consumer spending in August increasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer resilience [2] - There is a divergence between weak job growth and strong consumer spending, which may not be sustainable in the long term; the future economic direction will depend on whether consumer spending or the labor market adjusts first [2] - Executives from major companies express optimism about consumer resilience, suggesting that as long as the right products or services are available, consumers will continue to spend actively [3] Group 3 - Future months will require attention to tariff policies and their impact on consumer behavior, especially with the holiday shopping season approaching, as rising prices due to tariffs could challenge consumer spending [3] - The upcoming retail sales data is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, with a strong or weak retail sales report likely to influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant discrepancy in the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, with actual job additions at 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, marking a deviation of -2.68 standard deviations [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating increasing pressure in the labor market [3][5] - The labor market showed a stark contrast with a reduction of 357,000 full-time jobs while part-time positions surged by 597,000, suggesting a shift in employment dynamics [5] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.3%, with the participation rate for the prime age group (25 to 54 years) rising to 83.7%, reflecting potential changes in workforce engagement [5] - The unemployment rate among the Black community reached 7.5%, the highest since 2021, with slight increases in unemployment rates for White, Asian, and Hispanic groups, indicating structural issues within the labor market [5] - The weak employment data has led to heightened expectations for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, with predictions of a 25 basis point cut in September and December [7][8] Group 3 - Following the release of the non-farm data, the market reacted sharply, with significant declines in U.S. stocks and the dollar index, while gold prices surged [11] - The unexpected employment data has shifted market expectations, with the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut now being considered, complicating the economic outlook [11][13] - The overall market atmosphere has become tense and uncertain, with investors needing to reassess their strategies in light of the new data [11][13]