拉长时间线来看，开年以来国际金价表现亮眼，伦敦现货黄金自2625美元/盎司位置启动，一举在今年3 月中旬冲破3000美元历史性关口，更在4月下旬涨至3500美元，年内最高涨幅超33%，远超2024年27% 的全年涨幅。 不过，在狂飙之后，黄金进入震荡整理区间，截至目前，伦敦现货黄金年内涨幅回吐至25.7%。对此， 中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英分析指出，一方面，全球地缘军事冲突趋于缓和，且美 国政府与包括欧盟、日本在内的部分国家达成贸易关税协议，抑制了整体黄金的避险情绪。另一方面， 短期内美元处于强势状态，压制了黄金价格进一步上涨的趋势，致使目前黄金处于震荡整理的价格状 态。消息面上，当地时间7月30日，美联储公布了最新的利率决议，仍将基准利率维持在4.25%—4.50% 区间不变，未实施降息。 在上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚看来，金价的起伏和变化，最核心的原因在于市场情绪和 多空因素的相互作用。最直接的驱动力，是投资者对于宏观经济环境的预期不断变化。现在全球经济还 处在复苏和调整的阶段，很多数据出来后都会影响投资者的信心。另一个因素，是市场对于美联储和其 他主要央行货币政策的揣测。 " ...

【导读】特朗普再次抨击鲍威尔，称其不适合担任美联储主席 中国基金报记者 张舟 7 月 31 日，美联储公布 7 月份货币政策会议决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50% 之间不变。 CME" 美联储观察 " 数据显示，美联储 9 月维持利率不变的概率达 60.8% ，降息 25 个基 点的概率为 39.2% ；美联储 10 月维持利率不变的概率为 37.5% ，累计降息 25 个基点的 概率为 47.5% ，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 15% 。 对于美联储未来降息预期，德国商业银行分析师 Volkmar Baur 在一份报告中表示，如果美 联储在不久的将来更加愿意降息，美元可能会走弱。德国商业银行仍然预计美联储将在 9 月 份开始新一轮降息。他表示，美联储应该会在未来几周发出降息信号。 据悉，特朗普还提到关税，称如果国家不能通过关税来保护自己，就会 " 死亡 " ，没有生存 或成功的机会。 版权声明 《中国基金报》对本平台所刊载的原创内容享有著作权，未经授权禁止转载，否则将追究法律责任。 授权转载合作联系人：于先生（电话：0755-82468670） " 特朗普在社交媒体上表示： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has significantly reduced expectations for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood dropping from over 65% to around 40% following Chairman Powell's comments [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased risks to employment goals [7]. - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [8]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, supporting the view that the labor market is gradually cooling [9]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's future monetary policy remains uncertain, heavily reliant on upcoming employment and inflation data [11]. - Powell highlighted the importance of timing in policy actions, warning against acting too late or too early in response to inflation [12]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may delay rate cuts longer than the market expects, with potential cuts occurring later in the year [12][13]. Group 4: Political and Economic Influences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with concerns about political interference potentially impacting monetary policy decisions [14]. - Historical precedents suggest that a lack of independence can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain its autonomy [14].

Economic Indicators - The June PCE price index in the US increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February, with the previous value also revised up to 2.8% [3] Inflation Trends - Service sector inflation is accelerating, with rising costs for durable goods also noted [4] - Prices for household goods have surged due to the impact of the trade war [6] - Healthcare costs are beginning to rise [8] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation grew by only 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the decline from the previous month [10] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest downturn since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [10] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [10] - The savings rate is steady at 4.5%, reflecting household caution amid economic uncertainty [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with rising core inflation raising concerns, while weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt calls for interest rate cuts [12] - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions [12] - Recent trade policies and potential tariffs proposed by former President Trump are viewed as risks that could further elevate inflation [12] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock index futures maintained an upward trend, while Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, indicating market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [13] - The June PCE data has intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence is rooted in its strict institutional design, which prevents political and interest group interference in its decision-making process [4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Structure and Independence - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913, with Jewish capital accounting for only 7% of the shares among the seven major financial groups [4] - Shareholders do not have decision-making power and can only receive a fixed dividend of no more than 6% [4] - This structure allows the Federal Reserve to base its policy decisions on economic data, ensuring professionalism and transparency [4] Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - As the world's most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy not only determines the direction of the U.S. economy but also affects global capital flows and market sentiment [4] - There is a widespread market expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice in the second half of the year, which would reduce global financing costs [4] - Such a reduction in rates is anticipated to drive the U.S. stock market to new highs and transmit effects to the Chinese A-share market through Hong Kong [4] Group 3: Opportunities for China - For China, the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts represent not only an external opportunity but also a chance to deepen financial reforms and optimize the market environment [4] - Maintaining a commitment to reform and opening up will enable China's capital markets to leverage this situation, showcasing greater resilience and vitality [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a balance of structural factors between bullish and bearish sentiments, with short-term profit-taking and the Federal Reserve's unchanged policy contributing to the current consolidation phase [1][3][6]. Price Movement - After reaching a peak of $3438.80 per ounce, gold prices have retreated below $3300, with a low of $3268.02 on July 30 and a recovery to $3295 by July 31 [1][3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have shown a significant increase, starting from $2625 per ounce and peaking at $3500, reflecting a maximum gain of over 33% this year, although the current year-to-date increase has decreased to 25.7% [3][5]. Investment Demand - Despite the recent price volatility, global demand for gold investment remains strong, with a reported 477 tons of gold investment demand in Q2 2025, a 78% year-on-year increase [5]. - The inflow into gold ETFs reached 170 tons, with the Chinese market showing record performance, contributing 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion) in inflows and an increase of 61 tons in holdings [5]. Central Bank Activity - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, indicating sustained high levels of gold purchases despite a slight slowdown in pace [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures are expected to maintain central banks' interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment is influenced by changing expectations regarding the macroeconomic environment and monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and other central banks [4]. - Analysts suggest that gold prices are likely to maintain a strong medium to long-term support due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, although short-term price movements may remain volatile [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The July FOMC meeting was characterized by a lack of suspense regarding interest rates, as a rate cut was deemed unlikely based on inflation and employment data, yet it was filled with notable developments regarding internal divisions within the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The July FOMC meeting revealed significant internal dissent, with two members voting against maintaining the interest rate, a rare occurrence in nearly 30 years, indicating growing divisions within the Fed regarding economic risks and political pressures [5][6]. - Powell's language regarding economic forecasts has shifted, acknowledging a slowdown in economic activity while emphasizing the importance of labor market indicators, suggesting a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Inflation - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has been a major concern for the Fed, with Powell indicating that without tariffs, the Fed might have already moved to cut rates further [9][12]. - Recent trade agreements have reduced tariff uncertainties, allowing the Fed to better assess inflationary pressures, with a target tariff range of 10-20% established, which is expected to mitigate inflation impacts compared to previous worst-case scenarios [12][13]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision-making may shift focus to economic growth if inflation remains moderate in the coming months, despite pressures from import costs and rising tariffs [15][16]. - Employment indicators will gain importance in Fed decisions, as labor market growth has slowed, influenced by both demand factors and immigration restrictions, necessitating close monitoring of unemployment rates and wage growth [16][18].

Group 1 - The gold market is maintaining a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, reflecting uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction amid a weakening economic outlook [1][3] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, slightly downgrading its economic assessment compared to previous statements [3] - There is an emerging division within the Federal Reserve, with two members voting in favor of a rate cut, indicating a widening gap in opinions on future policy direction [3] Group 2 - Market analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve's policy path may be more hawkish than current market expectations, with a potential rate cut of 25 basis points possibly occurring in December [5] - Current market expectations suggest that investors anticipate two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the earliest cut potentially in September, although this expectation lacks sufficient support from policy levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate policy have significantly shifted, with traders now believing that the ECB will maintain the 2% benchmark rate until the end of the year, reducing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut to less than 50% [1][2] Group 1: ECB Rate Policy - Since initiating the rate cut cycle in June last year, the ECB has lowered the benchmark rate by a total of 200 basis points to the current level [1] - The ECB's decision to pause the rate cut cycle is supported by recent economic data, including a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth and a 1.4% year-on-year increase in the Eurozone's GDP [1] - The Eurozone's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, slightly up from the previous value of 1.9%, aligning with the ECB's target inflation rate [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy direction significantly impacts the ECB's decisions, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that future policy will be "fully data-dependent" [2] - Recent inflation indicators from parts of France and Germany have shown slight rebounds, contributing to the adjustment of market expectations [2] - There are internal divisions within the ECB regarding further rate cuts, with dovish officials advocating for cuts if economic growth underperforms, while hawkish officials believe the current inflation slowdown is in line with expectations [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%[3] - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[6] - The assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace"[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with half of the new jobs contributed by the government, indicating a slowdown in private sector job growth[7] - The labor force participation rate has declined, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market[11] - Consumer spending may have started to decline, with Q2 private domestic final purchases showing the lowest annualized growth rate since Q1 2023[13] Group 3: Inflation and Market Reactions - Inflation showed signs of rebounding in June, driven by rising energy and core commodity prices, while core services inflation remained stable[11] - Following the press conference, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped from over 60% to below 50%[14] - The uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high, with short-term inflation risks persisting due to tariff policies[14] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and greater-than-expected economic downturns[15] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued slowing growth in the U.S. economy, influenced by policy and economic uncertainties[13]