•中信证券研报指出，预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息，沃什担任美联储主席后，下半年基准情形降息1-2 次。沃什不会按特朗普诉求大幅降息，仍以经济基本面为主要决策依据，沃什关注通胀风险但并非绝对 鹰派。 转自：新华财经 •Monex：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 •华泰证券：预计美联储在6月会议前将暂缓降息 •中信证券：预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息 【机构分析】 •Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当能消除 市场对3月降息的押注。"不过，Monex目前仍预计美联储将在6月恢复降息。 •华泰证券研报表示，1月非农数据持续性有待观察，但整体佐证了就业市场逐步改善的判断；维持美联 储在6月前暂停降息，待新主席就任后降息1-2次的判断。往前看，由于通胀整体较为温和，就业数据持 续性存疑，预计美联储在6月会议前仍将暂缓降息，强调观察后续数据再做决策。 •对冲基金正出现明显转向，在"买入日本"交易升温的背景下，加大对日元走强的押注。交易员表示， 即便强劲的美国就业数据削弱了市场对今年美联储降息的预期，日元多头情绪仍在升温。周三，日元相 对美元连续第三个交易日上涨，在美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded strongly, maintaining a bullish outlook despite strong non-farm payroll data that cooled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical factors [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 11, gold opened at $5027.38 per ounce, experienced fluctuations, reached a high of $5119.05, then fell to a low of $4964.04, and closed at $5084.54, with a daily range of $155.01 and a gain of $57.16, or 1.14% [1][10]. - The market is currently digesting strong U.S. employment reports, but gold remains above bullish support levels, with long-term buying expected to drive momentum [3][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Although the January non-farm payroll data was strong, it is viewed as insufficient to alter future expectations, with skepticism surrounding the data due to previous ADP reports and potential government shutdown impacts on February's figures [5][14]. - Upcoming economic indicators include initial jobless claims and January's CPI, with expectations leaning towards a bullish outlook for gold [3][12]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold has rebounded from a downward trend, maintaining a bullish outlook above the 5-month moving average, suggesting that the bearish sentiment from January has dissipated [5][14]. - Weekly charts show that gold has returned above the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating a potential for further strength in the market [7][16]. - Daily charts reflect a reduction in volatility but maintain an upward trend, with bullish momentum expected to continue [7][16].

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.33%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.29% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.22%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.74%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.59% [2] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil is down by 0.09%, priced at $64.57 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down by 0.17%, priced at $69.28 per barrel [3] Economic and Market News - David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates "far more than twice" this year, contrary to market expectations, citing political pressure and upcoming leadership changes at the Fed as catalysts for aggressive rate cuts [4] - John Cito from Apollo Asset Management warns that the software industry is entering a "violent technology cycle," with a significant reset in valuation logic as the market begins to aggressively differentiate between winners and losers [5] - The Federal Reserve is reportedly planning to revoke certain non-public corrective orders issued to banks, signaling a potential easing of regulatory burdens [6] Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls report for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000, leading to a delay in rate cut expectations from June to July [7] - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi cautions against overconfidence in the employment data, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile and susceptible to shocks [7] Company-Specific News - Apple (AAPL.US) faces delays in its AI upgrade plan for Siri, with significant features potentially being rolled out in multiple phases rather than all at once [9] - Sanofi (SNY.US) announced a sudden CEO change, with Paul Hudson stepping down amid disappointing R&D results, leading to a drop in stock price by over 6% [10] - Cisco (CSCO.US) reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase to $15.3 billion, but stock fell over 7% due to concerns over future profit margins amid rising storage chip costs [11] - Applovin (APP.US) reported a 66% revenue increase in Q4, with net profit soaring by 84%, indicating strong performance in the AI and digital advertising space [12] - McDonald's (MCD.US) achieved its fastest revenue growth in over two years, with Q4 sales reaching $7 billion, driven by value meal offerings [13] - Confluent (CFLT.US) exceeded expectations in Q4, with revenue rising by 21% to $314.8 million, marking a strong performance before its acquisition by IBM [14] - Albemarle (ALB.US) reported a Q4 revenue of $1.43 billion but faced a net loss of $455.9 million, leading to a drop in stock price by over 2% [15] - Unilever (UL.US) reported Q4 sales of €12.6 billion, slightly down year-over-year, but expects stable growth in 2026, supported by a €1.5 billion share buyback plan [16]

来源：红星新闻 11日，美国三大股指集体收跌。其中，道指下跌0.13%，标普500指数跌幅接近于零，纳指跌幅为 0.16%。 11日美国三大股指集体收跌 当地时间周三，美国劳工统计局公布了今年首份非农就业报告。经季节性调整后，1月美国非农业部门 新增就业人数13万人，大幅高于市场预期，当月失业率为4.3%，为去年8月以来新低。强劲的非农就业 报告促使投资者重新评估美联储的政策路径，今年首次降息的预期时间从6月推迟至7月，一定程度上打 击了市场风险偏好。叠加市场对软件行业将受到人工智能冲击的担忧再起，软件股遭到抛售，美国三大 股指盘中转跌，收盘时全线下跌。其中，道指下跌0.13%，标普500指数跌幅接近于零，纳指跌幅为 0.16%。 11日欧洲三大股指涨跌不一 原油期货方面，有媒体报道称，美国总统特朗普正私下评估退出《美墨加协定》的可能性，为三方谈判 注入了不确定性，引发市场对北美能源贸易前景的担忧。此外，欧佩克当天发布的月度原油市场报告显 示，受哈萨克斯坦、委内瑞拉及伊朗供应中断影响，OPEC+ 1月日均原油产量环比减少43.9万桶，远超 市场预期，进一步加剧了供应紧张局面。受以上因素影响，国际油价周三上涨。 ...

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 来源 | 金十财经 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）表示，1月就业数据表现强劲确实出人意料，但这不意味着政策制定者应当推迟进一步降息。 米兰指出，放松商业监管等供给端改革计划已经提上日程，加上住房通胀预计放缓，这些因素将为决策层继续下调基准利率创造条件。自去 年9月加入美联储理事会以来，米兰在历次政策会议上均投下反对票，主张比同僚更大规模的降息。 "出于多种原因，我希望看到利率走低，" 米兰在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，"今天的就业数据确实令我对经济前景感到乐观，但坦率 地说，在供给端持续释放潜力的背景下，货币政策仍有空间采取配合姿态。" 米兰周三还表示， 如果被要求长期留任美联储，他将"非常乐意" ， 但决定权不在他。 米兰的任期已于1月31日届满，尽管在新任人选获得确认之前他仍可留任，但他所持的美联储理事席位，是目前唯一一个能让特朗普提名凯文 ·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席的席位——除非现任主席鲍威尔在5月中旬其主席任期届满时同时辞去理事职务。鲍威尔尚未透露他 将怎么做，他的美联储理事席位要到2028年1月才会到期。 金十财经 ...

如何抓住黄金波段机会？聪明钱的选择，黄金+股票一键搞定>> 格隆汇2月12日｜瑞银全球财富管理在报告中指出，尽管1月非农就业报告强于预期，但未来数月美国通 胀回落的证据应能使美联储维持进一步降息的计划。首席投资官马克·海菲尔表示，该机构基准情景仍 是6月及9月各降息25个基点，这"将为股票、债券及黄金创造有利环境"。伦敦证券交易所数据显示，非 农数据公布后，货币市场将美联储全年降息总幅度预期从之前的约60个基点下调至约50个基点，并将下 一次降息的定价从6月推迟至7月。 ...

国外 道明证券将美联储下次降息时间点的预测从此前的3月推迟至6月，仍预计今年将累计降息75个基点，降 至终端利率3%。道明证券预计美联储将在6月、9月和12月各进行一次25个基点的降息。该机构首席美 国宏观策略师Oscar Munoz领衔的团队表示，预期中的政策宽松并非源于经济状况恶化，而是随着通胀 逐步回到目标水平，货币政策走向"正常化"的结果。就业前景改善应能让美联储把注意力转向通胀任 务。该机构同时预计，美债收益率今年将会继续下行，10年期收益率至年末将降至3.75%（此前预计为 3.5%）。 3. 野村：高市早苗政府有望加强财政纪律，日元走强 日元相对其他G10及亚洲货币走强。野村外汇研究分析师在报告中指出，日本首相高市早苗在财政政策 上可能变得更加"负责"，这将为外汇市场带来了一定缓解。分析师指出，有关如何为日本的消费税暂时 减免提供资金的讨论正在升温。分析师补充称，政府可能会利用"外汇基金特别账户"的盈余来支持此次 消费税减免。 4. Monex宏观研究负责人：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees在报告中表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当 ...

新华财经上海2月12日电 美国1月新增非农就业人数超预期、失业率则低于预期水平，强劲的就业数据 促使市场重新评估美联储的政策路径。交易员普遍将2026年美联储首次降息时点从此前预期的6月推迟 至7月。 1月非农数据公布后，市场对美联储3月降息的预期概率从21.7%降至8%，6月前降息的概率也由75%下 滑至48.6%，市场预期美联储降息窗口或将进一步后移。 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘表示，1月非农数据持续性有待观察，但整体佐证了就业市场逐步改善 的判断，维持美联储在6月前暂停降息，待新美联储主席就任后降息1-2次的判断。 美联储内部"鹰声连连" 美联储官员近期发表的言论，也令市场降息预期进一步推迟。堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德当地时间 11日警告称，考虑到经济增长依然强劲且通胀居高不下，美联储应维持紧缩的货币政策。他进一步强 调，在通胀仍高于目标水平的背景下，美联储应将利率维持在"略具有限制性"的区间，过早或进一步降 息可能导致高通胀持续更长时间。 多位分析师接受新华财经采访时表示，美国1月非农就业数据大超预期，可能会促使美联储进一步推迟 降息。但美国非农就业整体依然保持下修的态势，就业市场未来面临的下行风 ...

隔夜，现货黄金一度冲高至5118美元附近，最终收盘仍实现超过1%的涨幅，最终收报于5084.34美元。 今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅走弱，目前在5073美元附近徘徊。 与此同时，现货白银盘中站上86美元关口，最终收涨4.34%，报84.3美元。今日欧市盘中，白银小幅走 弱，目前在83.75美元附近徘徊。 降息预期降温！ 隔夜，美股三大指数小幅收跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.13%，纳指跌0.16%，标普500指数微跌0.01%。 消息面上，美联储降息预期大幅降温。 美东时间2月11日，美国劳工统计局发布了美国2026年1月就业报告，其中显示，美国1月季调后非农就 业人口增加13万人，大幅高于预期的7万人，前值为增加5万人。 报告显示，美国1月失业率为4.3%，创2025年8月以来新低，低于预期的4.4%，前值为4.4%。 数据修订方面，美国2025年就业人数下修86.2万，经季节性调整后为89.8万，高于预期的82.5万，凸显 美国就业市场在过去一年的疲弱态势：2025年前几个月月均新增就业人数仅1.5万，远低于往年水平。 数据发布后，交易员已将下次美联储降息的预期时点从6月推迟至7月。据CME"美联储观察"，截至发 稿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed stronger-than-expected performance in January, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000 and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, impacting market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1]. Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding market expectations [1]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 94.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March [1]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have shifted from June to July following the strong employment data [1]. - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a cautious approach to further rate cuts, with a preference for patience in assessing economic conditions [1]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed a preference for maintaining current rates while evaluating the impact of recent rate cuts [1]. - Kansas City Fed President Esther George emphasized the need to keep rates in a "slightly restrictive" range due to inflation remaining above target levels [1]. - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that despite the strong employment report, the job market remains fragile and susceptible to shocks [2].