Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The external geopolitical situation has increased attention on the military industry, which is currently undervalued and under-allocated. The industry is expected to gradually improve due to the ongoing "14th Five-Year Plan" and favorable foreign trade expectations, suggesting a new round of market activity [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve high-quality modernization of national defense and military forces, indicating that the military industry is entering a new cycle of quality and quantity improvement [3]. - The report anticipates that the military industry's fundamentals will continue to improve in the first half of 2026, with a recovery in orders and performance expected to return to normal [3]. - The report highlights the IPO of Blue Arrow Aerospace, which is expected to raise 7.5 billion yuan, marking a golden development period for commercial aerospace [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military sector [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 3.05%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 4.29%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.25% [4][11]. - The defense and military sector's 3.05% increase ranked second among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [4]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Leike Defense: +33.09% - China Satellite Communications: +26.21% - China Satellite: +18.69% - Aerospace Development: +17.22% - Aerospace Morning Light: +14.87% [11]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were: - Tianjian Technology: -18.92% - *ST Aowei: -14.11% - Zhongguang Defense: -8.17% - Jianglong Shipbuilding: -7.10% - *ST Zhisheng: -4.50% [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 91.39, placing it in the 73.38% valuation percentile since January 2014, and in the 99.41% percentile since January 2019. The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [12][13].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a 13-day winning streak, reaching a 10-year high, with the CSI A500 ETF (159338) rising by 1.8% and attracting nearly 14 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 20 days [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The current period is seen as a critical buildup phase for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations of continued loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies in China until 2026, which may lead to a further recovery in total demand [1] - Globally, fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and Japan are progressing simultaneously, contributing to gradual improvements in demand [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The CSI A500 Index, with its overweight in advanced manufacturing, information technology, communications, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials, is positioned to deliver relative returns during the economic recovery phase [1] - Compared to the CSI 300, the CSI A500 emphasizes industry balance and leading companies in specific sectors, offering a more diversified style and higher growth exposure, which can provide a better Beta base during the industrial structure upgrade cycle [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of December 31, 2025, the CSI A500 Index has increased by 464.28% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has risen by 361.15%, resulting in an excess return of 103.13% [1] - The number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF is the highest among its peers, being more than three times that of the second-ranked product, indicating a growing interest from investors [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market continues to show strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day winning streak, reaching its highest level since July 2015, closing at 4083.67 points, up 1.50% [3][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.40% to 14022.55 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.75% to 3319.29 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 283.26 billion, an increase of 26.51 billion from the previous day [3][5] Market Dynamics - The current market trend is characterized as a "short squeeze" rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous highs and maintaining a strong upward momentum [4][5] - Nearly 4000 stocks rose, with only 1210 declining, indicating a broad-based rally. The median increase among stocks was 0.8% [5] Sector Performance - The insurance sector led the market with a gain of over 4%, indicating its role as a core driver of the current rally since early December [5] - The securities sector also performed well, benefiting from prior adjustments, while the banking sector contributed to stabilizing the index despite initial declines [5] - Technology stocks, particularly in communications and semiconductors, faced adjustments, leading to a weaker performance in the ChiNext Index [6] Capital Flow - Significant capital outflows were observed in the communications sector, with approximately 11.1 billion leaving, while the securities sector saw a net inflow of 3.9 billion, indicating a potential shift in market focus [6] - The overall market experienced a net outflow of about 8 billion, despite the strong index performance, suggesting caution among investors [7] Future Outlook - The current market rally is seen as an early start to the spring market, but there are concerns regarding upcoming earnings reports that could impact speculative stock performance [7] - Investors are advised to monitor the performance of the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index, which showed signs of a pullback towards the end of the trading day [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the 2026 policy will focus on investment as a key driver to achieve a strong economic start, with state-owned enterprises playing a crucial role in infrastructure investment [4][5][8]. Investment Policy Focus - The 2026 policy aims to leverage investment to stimulate economic growth, particularly in infrastructure, as fixed asset investment has been experiencing negative growth since the second half of 2025 [5][6]. - The government plans to implement major projects that can drive overall economic activity and support current demand [7]. Infrastructure Investment - The focus for 2026 will be on infrastructure construction, including projects like parking lots, charging stations, and urban renewal, with a significant increase in investment in social welfare sectors such as elderly care and healthcare [7][8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 220 billion yuan for early-stage construction projects, supporting various sectors including urban underground utilities and ecological restoration [7]. Role of State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises are expected to take the lead in implementing major infrastructure projects, ensuring robust support for traditional infrastructure updates and new infrastructure development [8]. Financial Support for Investment - There is substantial financial backing for the investment initiatives, including 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and 200 billion yuan for project construction debt limits [9]. - The government is also focusing on resolving local fiscal difficulties and ensuring that necessary funds are available for investment projects [11]. Local Fiscal Management - The article highlights the shift in local fiscal management from merely ensuring basic services to also addressing debt repayment and clearing outstanding payments to businesses [11]. - The emphasis is on a sustainable fiscal approach that considers local conditions and avoids one-size-fits-all solutions [12][13]. Performance Evaluation and Policy Implementation - The importance of a differentiated evaluation system for local governments is stressed, aiming to ensure that performance metrics align with long-term sustainable growth rather than short-term gains [14]. - The article suggests that local governments will adopt a more balanced approach to development, focusing on their unique strengths and capabilities [15].

2026年1月5日，中国共产党宝鸡市金台区第十六届委员会第十一次全体会议暨区委经济工作会议召开。全会以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指 导，深入学习贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会及中央经济工作会议精神，贯通落实习近平总书记历次来陕和来宝考察重要讲话重要指示，认真落实省委 十四届九次全会、省委经济工作会议和市委十三届九次全会暨市委经济工作会议精神，回顾总结"十四五"和2025年工作，研究部署"十五五"和今年工作。 全会由区委常委会主持。区委书记王宏强代表区委常委会向全会作工作报告并讲话，区委副书记、区长王润军部署经济工作并就《宝鸡市金台区国民经济 和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要（讨论稿）》向全会作说明。区人大常委会主任王启、区政协主席张炜、区委副书记闫启东参加会议。 全会充分肯定2025年区委常委会的工作。一致认为，一年来，全区上下深化开展"三个年"活动、聚力打好"八场硬仗"、协同落实"十项重点任务"，发展动 能持续增强，经济回升态势巩固，新区建设成效明显，城乡发展协同联动，群众福祉真切可感，社会大局安全稳定，管党治党全面从严，奋进合力更加凝 聚，经济社会发展和党的建设取得新成效。 全会指出，奋进"十五五" ...

Economic Outlook - 2026 is crucial for the "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming for a strong economic start with significant long-term implications[2] - The focus will be on investment-driven growth, particularly in infrastructure, healthcare, and urban renewal[2][4] Fiscal Policy - Central and state-owned enterprises will lead infrastructure investments, with a focus on addressing local fiscal challenges[2][7] - The shift from "three guarantees" (people's livelihood, wages, and operations) to "five guarantees" (including debt repayment) highlights the need for sustainable fiscal policies[2][11] Budget and Spending - The general public budget expenditure for 2026 is expected to increase by over 1 trillion yuan compared to 2025, with a deficit expansion contributing 220 billion yuan[2][14][16] - The 2026 deficit rate is projected to remain similar to 2025, with efforts to enhance tax collection and streamline fiscal policies to boost revenue[2][14] Investment Strategy - Investment recovery is critical, with a focus on major projects that can stimulate demand and stabilize the economy[5][6] - The government plans to allocate 220 billion yuan for early-stage construction projects, emphasizing urban infrastructure and public services[6][7] Risks and Challenges - There is a risk of misinterpretation of policies, which could hinder investment recovery[3][18] - Local governments face significant debt pressures, potentially limiting their ability to drive investment growth[18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the digital transformation of enterprises in 2026 is at a critical juncture, driven by a significant increase in AI-enhanced SaaS penetration and the number of companies recognizing data assets [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides a strategic framework for digital transformation, helping companies align their goals with national policies, thus gaining advantages in resource allocation and cross-departmental collaboration [2] - AI-native applications are set to redefine operational paradigms, moving from passive responses to proactive problem-solving, with a focus on intelligent decision-making [4] Group 2 - The concept of data assetization has evolved from mere compliance to becoming a core driver of intelligence, with companies recognizing the value of data as fuel for AI models [6] - Lean growth has emerged as a response to budget cuts, with over 70% of companies reducing digital investment, leading to a focus on high-value scenarios and precise breakthroughs [8] - Emotional value is identified as a key factor in overcoming resistance to digital transformation, emphasizing the importance of trust and recognition within organizations [9] Group 3 - Talent restructuring is essential as the shift in technology creates a gap in skills, necessitating a transformation from technical roles to value integrators [11] - The article concludes that the digital leap in 2026 represents a "logical revolution," where six key themes interconnect to form a new growth logic that integrates strategy, technology, and organization [12] - Companies like Dateng Intelligent are exemplifying the practical application of these six key themes, aligning with national policies and enhancing operational efficiency through AI and data integration [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][25]. Core Insights - The outlook for 2026 marks the beginning of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, with a focus on high-quality development driven by regulatory requirements. The current new housing market, valued at 8 trillion RMB, shows some capacity for sales, emphasizing the importance of fiscal efforts and the timing of blue-chip competition [5][30]. - In December 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a monthly sales amount of 3.13 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.0%, but a narrowing of the decline by 0.9 percentage points compared to November 2025. Equity sales reached 2.46 trillion RMB, down 20.1% year-on-year, with an equity ratio of 79% [5][30]. - The report highlights that most top 100 companies experienced negative year-on-year sales growth in December 2025, with the highest sales recorded by China Overseas Land & Investment at 38 billion RMB [19][30]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2025, the top 100 real estate companies' sales amounted to 324.65 billion RMB, up 39.3% month-on-month but down 26.1% year-on-year. Equity sales were 261.53 billion RMB, up 42.0% month-on-month and down 28.7% year-on-year [7][19]. - The top 50 companies recorded sales of 273.41 billion RMB, down 18.6% year-on-year, with equity sales of 211.44 billion RMB, down 18.8% year-on-year [7][19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: 1) Development: A-Shares - China Vanke, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Beijing Urban Construction, Hangzhou Binjiang, Gemdale; H-Shares - China Overseas Land, C&D International [25][30]. 2) Commercial Residential: China Resources Land, Longfor Group [25][30]. 3) Property: Onewo, China Resources Mixc, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Property, ChongQing New DaZheng [25][30]. 4) Cultural Tourism: Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town [25][30]. Monthly Sales Trends - In December 2025, the top 11-20 companies had a sales threshold decrease of 4.3%, while the top 51-100 companies saw a more significant decline of 28.5% [16][30]. - Among the top 50 companies, 9 achieved positive year-on-year growth, with China State Construction Development leading at 213.2% [19][30].

行业表现来看，中证1000ETF前几大重仓行业中，电子上涨0.03%，电力设备上涨0.06%，医药生物下跌0.02%， 计算机上涨0.46%，机械设备下跌0.03%。 资金面来看，中证1000ETF（159845）近五个交易日资金净流入12.82亿元，近十个交易日净流入22.73亿元。最 新规模达514.35亿元，近一个月规模增长70.9亿。今日盘中成交额7.81亿元，近一周日均成交高达13.13亿元，流动性 在同类产品中表现突出。 1月6日上午，A股三大指数走势分化，其中沪指上涨0.49%。截止10点39分，中证1000ETF（159845）上涨 0.28%。其他宽基指数中，上证50涨0.93%，沪深300涨0.40%，中证500涨0.72%。 中证1000ETF（159845）紧密跟踪中证1000指数。中证1000指数由全部A股中剔除中证800指数成份股后，规模 偏小且流动性好的1000只股票组成，综合反映中国A股市场中一批小市值公司的股票价格表现。 每日经济新闻 个股表现来看，中证1000ETF前50只权重股中，涨幅靠前的有，道氏技术涨6.08%，江丰电子涨5.54%，中钨高 新涨4.53%，芯源微涨4 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，去年12月内地主要城市二手房价格持续环比下跌，但跌幅有所放缓，同期销售 额同比降幅也趋于温和;该行认为未来数月住房政策可能保持低调，而二手房挂牌量居高不下仍可能抑 制买家情绪，从而对房屋销售和价格构成压力。 大摩重申其观点，认为随着居民信心进一步减弱，预计实体房地产市场的下行趋势将延续至今年，但步 伐会较为放缓，二手房价格预期同比跌幅为高个位数，相对于2025年跌13.7%。若宏观环境保持韧性， 一线及主要二线城市的房价可能在2027年下半年趋于稳定。 尽管大摩对房地产实体市场复苏保持谨慎看法，但预见今年的整体行业与具备可靠自救能力的优质企业 之间的股价表现将进一步分化。该行看好稳健的商场营运商华润置地(01109)和新城控股（601155） (601155.SH)，相信其受益于"十五五"规划对消费的重视及REITs政策的强劲顺风。 大摩亦看好建发国际集团(01908)和中国海外发展(00688)，其优化的土储将支持利润，并推动盈利恢复 正增长。 ...