新华社柏林8月6日电（新华社记者李函林）今年4月以来，美国政府挥舞关税大棒，大幅提高自欧盟进 口汽车关税，重创欧洲汽车产业，导致德国主要车企集体陷入利润暴跌的"寒冬"。 欧美日前达成新协议，欧盟输美汽车关税从25%降至15%。分析人士指出，该协议或将暂时避免欧美之 间爆发全面贸易战，但德国制造业的困境远未解除，仍然高企的出口成本与政策反复所带来的不确定 性，正在持续削弱车企信心。 关税冲击车企业绩 宝马、梅赛德斯-奔驰、大众等德国主要车企近日公布的财报显示，2025年上半年，企业利润普遍大幅 下滑。多家企业明确指出，美国高关税政策是造成其财务承压的重要因素。 宝马财报显示，2025年上半年，该集团收入同比下降8.2%，净利润下滑29%。公司指出，高关税是其核 心业务利润率下降的主要因素之一。梅赛德斯-奔驰上半年净利润从去年同期的约61亿欧元"腰斩"至约 27亿欧元。 大众集团2025年上半年销售收入同比下降0.3%，旗下保时捷汽车业绩也受到显著影响。保时捷公司表 示，上半年因关税额外支出约4亿欧元。 与此同时，德国车企现金流状况持续恶化。英国《金融时报》报道，受美国关税政策等因素影响，德国 三大汽车制造商今年 ...

Group 1 - China has imposed a 100% tariff on certain Canadian goods, signaling a strong response to perceived unfair trade practices [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated its first "anti-discrimination investigation," concluding that Canada's trade measures are discriminatory and violate fair competition principles [3][4] - Canada's reliance on imports for its electric vehicle market contrasts with its imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which are favored for their cost-effectiveness and advanced technology [3][4] Group 2 - The retaliatory measures from China highlight the consequences of Canada's trade policies, which have been influenced by U.S. actions, including the imposition of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum [3][4] - Canada's contradictory stance of taxing Chinese electric vehicles while depending on Chinese supply chains for clean energy development raises concerns about its green economy [4][5] - The situation serves as a warning to other countries about the repercussions of protectionist trade policies against China, which has established itself as an indispensable part of the global manufacturing landscape [4][7]

特朗普日前签署行政令，进一步修改4月2日开始的所谓"互惠关税"税率，罗列对数十个贸易伙伴的进口关税税 率，并宣布从8月7日开始正式对60多个美国贸易伙伴国按照新标准征收关税。美国贸易代表格里尔在8月3日播出的一 次采访中表示，特朗普总统发布行政命令后，针对60多个贸易伙伴的关税税率"基本已定"。 然而，以造福美国工人、农民和制造商为名发起的贸易保护主义关税，并不能让美国企业与人民成为赢家。几十 年来高度依赖海外制造的美国公司，已为此承担了巨额成本。苹果公司表示，由于美国的关税政策，在第三财季承担 了约8亿美元的成本损失。沃尔玛和塔吉特等美国大型零售商也表示，由于无力承担关税成本，将调高商品价格。显 然，所有美国消费者都将被裹挟进"伤害的螺旋"。据耶鲁大学预算实验室的最新分析，新一轮关税将导致美国消费者 面临18.3%的总体平均有效关税税率，达到1934年以来的最高水平。此外，关税将使2025年美国家庭平均支出增加 2400美元。谁在承担关税的后果，不言自明。 美国有线电视新闻网指出，新一轮关税是美国"斯姆特-霍利关税法"时代以来征收的最高关税。这一1930年由胡佛 总统签署的关税法案，将2万多种进口商品关税提 ...

面对美国的强硬立场，部分国家愈发意识到美国政策的不可预测性，转而加速贸易多元化与区域合作的 步伐。马来西亚总理安瓦尔日前呼吁，面对外部压力，东盟国家需要巩固自身基础，加强彼此贸易并增 加相互投资。这不仅体现了马来西亚的应对策略，也反映了发展中国家在动荡中寻求南南合作的新路 径。 文章指出，美国发起的关税战让全球南方国家再次感受到当前国际秩序中的结构性不公，进一步凸显了 人类命运共同体理念的重要性与现实价值。这一理念试图打破传统的零和博弈思维，推动不同发展阶段 国家之间的合作对话，强调在多边框架下谋求共赢、共治的全球合作体系。 当前单边主义与保护主义抬头，以金砖国家为代表的多边合作平台，正尝试以多元包容的发展模式回应 全球不平等的格局。金砖国家新开发银行推动本币结算与基础设施投资，为发展中国家提供金融替代路 径，减少对西方体系的依赖。这种南南合作的新探索，展示了发展中国家共赢发展的可能性。 新华社吉隆坡8月5日电（记者王嘉伟 毛鹏飞）马来西亚《星洲日报》网站4日刊登《从关税战反思全球 共赢的出路》一文。文章指出，美国政府一意孤行地推动关税战，背离当前多边合作与共同发展的全球 共识。各国唯有携手加强协作、构建公平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the U.S. government's decision to impose high tariffs on imports from over 180 countries, marking a critical moment in modern trade history and raising concerns about the stability of the global trade system [1][3]. Trade Policy and Economic Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs to an average of 15%, with only a few allies like the UK and Japan receiving a lower rate of 10% due to special agreements [1]. - Major trading partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada are excluded from a 90-day grace period, facing immediate tariff impacts [3]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 75,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 100,000, and previous months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [3][5]. Economic Forecasts and Predictions - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% and increased the probability of a U.S. recession from 27% to 40% [7]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the increase in effective tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2025 [7]. - A study from Yale indicates that U.S. households may face an additional $2,400 in annual expenses due to tariffs, with clothing prices potentially rising by 38% [7]. Global Reactions and Supply Chain Changes - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% and is focusing on internal adjustments [8]. - The European Union is preparing retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. tech companies and is seeking to strengthen ties with China [8]. - Emerging economies like Cambodia and Vietnam are warned to face severe impacts due to their reliance on the U.S. market [10]. Financial Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion [13]. - Gold prices surged, while cryptocurrencies also faced substantial drops, indicating a flight to safety among investors [13]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Economists draw parallels to the 1930s, warning that high tariffs could lead to a repeat of the disastrous trade wars that exacerbated the Great Depression [15][17]. - The article suggests that the current trade policies may signal the end of the golden age of free trade, leading to a more fragmented and regionalized trade order [17].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented new tariffs on over 60 trade partners, effective from August 7, as part of a unilateral trade strategy [1][3] - The U.S. trade representative indicated that the tariff rates have been largely finalized, reflecting a strong stance in ongoing trade negotiations [1][3] - The tariffs are seen as a tool for political leverage, with the U.S. using economic measures to influence other countries' policies [3][4] Group 2 - European businesses express dissatisfaction with the recent tariff agreement, feeling that the EU has emerged as the loser in the negotiations [4] - Canadian companies face a significant 35% tariff rate, highlighting the burden placed on U.S. allies [4] - The new tariffs are expected to increase costs for U.S. consumers, with estimates suggesting an average effective tariff rate of 18.3%, the highest since 1934 [5] Group 3 - Major U.S. retailers like Walmart and Target are likely to raise prices due to the increased costs from tariffs, impacting consumers directly [5] - The tariffs are projected to increase average household spending by $2,400 by 2025, indicating a significant financial burden on American families [5] - The current tariff situation is compared to the historical Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which led to severe economic consequences during the Great Depression [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to implement a new round of tariffs on various countries, including 35% on goods from Canada, 50% from Brazil, 25% from India, and 39% from Switzerland, effective August 7 [1] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934 [3] Group 2 - The new U.S. tariff policy is expected to reduce trade volume as it increases costs for imported goods, leading to a decrease in exports to the U.S. from other countries [4] - The tariffs are likely to raise domestic prices of goods in the U.S., contributing to inflation, although the extent of this impact remains uncertain [4] - The U.S. is predicted to experience a decline in its position in global trade due to the establishment of high trade barriers, which will reduce trade interactions with other countries [4] - Countries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. will face significant impacts on their trade [4] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. has oscillated between protectionism and liberal trade policies, with current shifts being driven by perceived national interests and challenges faced by the U.S. [5] - The U.S. has reverted to protectionist policies after a long period of advocating for trade liberalization, which may be detrimental to both the U.S. and the global economy [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy showed strong resilience in the second quarter, and with the central government's ongoing "anti-involution" policy, the A-share market continued its upward trend in July, suggesting a shift towards growth-oriented fund allocation while emphasizing the importance of stock selection and risk control by fund managers [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - **Equity Mixed Funds**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal trends. The long-standing economic transformation pains and high risk-free returns have hindered stock market performance and investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, stock prices reflect investor expectations for the future, and there is potential for new highs in stock indices. It is recommended to increase Chinese equity positions during market pullbacks, focusing on technology growth, cyclical consumption recovery, and high-dividend sectors [2]. - **Bond Funds**: With narrowing trend trading opportunities, there is a need to focus on trading opportunities in the bond market. This includes short-term adjustments driven by market sentiment and structural strategies involving 30-year and 10-year government bonds to enhance portfolio returns. As the equity market recovers, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value [3]. - **QDII and Commodity Funds**: Looking ahead, global central bank gold purchases indicate a long-term trend reflecting changes in the global monetary system. The rise of trade protectionism and global economic restructuring will increase economic differentiation, supporting demand for gold. The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle. Therefore, it is advisable to consider allocating to gold ETFs for long-term and hedging investments [3].

世界贸易组织在1995年正式成立，标志着全球多边贸易体制迈入新阶段。以自由贸易为核心的经济 全球化为诸多发展中国家带来发展机遇。作为全球最大经济体的美国，如今却高举贸易保护主义大旗， 频频以关税作为外交和经济施压手段。这不仅扰乱了全球贸易秩序，也对众多依赖出口的国家，特别是 发展中国家的农产品与制造业领域造成沉重打击。 当前单边主义与保护主义抬头，以金砖国家为代表的多边合作平台，正尝试以多元包容的发展模式 回应全球不平等的格局。金砖国家新开发银行推动本币结算与基础设施投资，为发展中国家提供金融替 代路径，减少对西方体系的依赖。这种南南合作的新探索，展示了发展中国家共赢发展的可能性。 文章指出，美国发起的关税战让全球南方国家再次感受到当前国际秩序中的结构性不公，进一步凸 显了人类命运共同体理念的重要性与现实价值。这一理念试图打破传统的零和博弈思维，推动不同发展 阶段国家之间的合作对话，强调在多边框架下谋求共赢、共治的全球合作体系。 新华社吉隆坡8月5日电（记者王嘉伟 毛鹏飞）马来西亚《星洲日报》网站4日刊登《从关税战反思 全球共赢的出路》一文。文章指出，美国政府一意孤行地推动关税战，背离当前多边合作与共同发展的 ...

印度外交部没有回应置评请求。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】美国彭博社8月5日报道称，据知情官员透露，尽管美国总统特朗普近日因印度购买俄罗斯石油而加大了对 印加征关税的威胁，印度总理莫迪的高级助手仍将按计划访问俄罗斯。 彭博社称，匿名印度官员表示，印度国家安全顾问多瓦尔将于本周访问俄罗斯，印度外长苏杰生也将在本月晚些时候前往访问。这两 次访问均属于年度例行磋商的一部分，并已提前安排好。 特朗普8月4日在其社交媒体发文表示，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟取暴利，他将大幅 提高印度向美国缴纳的关税。对此，印度外交部发言人表示，印度进口俄罗斯石油"是为了确保印度消费者能够获得稳定且负担得起 的能源供应"，"与任何主要经济体一样，印度将采取一切必要措施，维护国家利益和经济安全。"克里姆林宫也就特朗普上述言论抨 击称，"主权国家有权选择自己的贸易伙伴"，"迫使各国断绝与俄罗斯贸易关系"是不正当的行为。 ...