——美国突袭委内瑞拉影响快评 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 美委地缘扰动不改中国出海大势 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.c ...

来源：单仁行 01 作为"十五五"规划的起步之年，2026年承载着特殊的发展使命，它不再是过往规划的线性延伸，而是要进入到一个冲刺期，"高质量发展"成为压倒一切的 核心原则。 对我们每个企业来说，开局之年往往是政策密集落地、市场活力迸发、产业机遇集中涌现的关键窗口期，都会给顺应趋势的企业打开成长空间。 值得期盼的机会有很多，寄予厚望的行业有很多，等待变革的企业也有很多。 我们展望2026年的发展，有哪些重点领域的机会值得我们关注，经营的逻辑会如何变化呢？ 02 在单仁行元旦的内容里，我们讲到了AI搜索、GEO，讲到了细分市场的中小企业在2026年品牌建设的核心。 今天我想特别补充两点。 一是关于出海。 根据海关总署发布的数据，2025年的前11个月，中国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿，同比增长3.6%，特别是我们的出口达到了24.46万亿，同比增长 6.2%，是外贸增长的主要驱动力。 而且，有一个特别的数字，我想分享跟大家，什么呢？ 如果以美元计价，中国的贸易顺差突破了1万亿美元，这在整个人类贸易史上都是首次，而且，极难被其他国家超越。 因为第二名的德国，2025年的贸易顺差大概是2600亿-2750亿美元 ...

2025年12月20日，南京商旅（600250.SH）发布公告称，收购南京黄埔大酒店事项终止。消息公布后四 个交易日，公司股价合计下跌17.32%。12月25日，公司在上证路演中心召开投资者说明会，主要对公 司发展战略进行了强调说明。 南京商旅前身为南纺股份，以服装、纺织、机电、化工等产品的进出口为主营业务，同时拥有南京商厦 运营权。后经跨界并购，公司将南京秦淮风光旅游股份有限公司（下称"秦淮风光"）收入旗下，从而获 得了夫子庙-秦淮风光带游船观光的经营权。 2022年至2024年，南京商旅分别实现营业收入8.22亿元、8.56亿元、7.76亿元；扣非净利润-1.22亿元、 0.31亿元、0.06亿元。2025年前三季度，公司营业收入为5.52亿元，同比减少8.07%；扣非净利润为0.18 亿元，同比下降14%。 进一步分析，南京商旅多个核心业务业绩承压。2024年，公司"进出口贸易"业务收入1.94亿元，同比下 降11.75%；"国内贸易"业务收入1.04亿元，同比下降31.34%；零售百货业务收入0.59亿元，同比下降 49.87%。"旅游服务"业务营收为2.8亿元，虽然同比上升29.39%，但对应营收成 ...

两百多年间，制造业始终在全球范围内流动、重组、升级。它像一股持续移动的力量，从欧洲出发，横跨大西洋，又深度 进入亚洲，每一次转移都伴随着技术革命、制度变革与国家命运的更替。回望这条迁徙轨迹，我们看到的不只是"工厂换 了地方"，而是世界生产方式的不断重塑。如今，当智能制造与人工智能成为关键词，新一轮制造业变局正在酝酿。 蒸汽时代的起点：英国率先点燃工业引擎 18世纪末，英国率先完成从手工业向机器生产的跃迁。蒸汽机的广泛应用，使纺织、冶金、造船等行业实现规模化生产， 制造效率被前所未有地释放。 曼彻斯特的棉纺厂昼夜运转，英国布匹一度占据全球市场的绝对主导地位。制造业不仅支撑了国内经济，也成为海外扩张 的重要基础。可以说，工业革命让"制造能力"第一次成为国家实力的核心指标。 但优势并非永恒。随着成本上升、市场趋于饱和，英国逐渐失去制造领先地位，制造业开始寻找新的落脚点。 规模化时代：中国构建"世界工厂" 20世纪90年代以后，中国成为全球制造业迁移的最大承接者。改革开放释放的制度红利、庞大而稳定的劳动力供给，以及 日益完善的产业配套，使中国迅速形成完整制造体系。 沿海城市快速崛起，电子、纺织、机械、消费品制造高度集 ...

贸易创新发展是全面推动高质量发展的内在要求，是加快构建新发展格局的重要支撑，亦是应对国 际经贸局势变化的主动作为。"十五五"规划建议提出"推动贸易创新发展"，要求"提升贸易促进平台功 能，支持跨境电商等新业态新模式发展"。中央经济工作会议对"鼓励支持服务出口，积极发展数字贸 易、绿色贸易"作出重要部署。跨境电商是我国外贸发展的有生力量，也是国际贸易发展的重要趋势。 更好发挥跨境电商在赋能中小外贸企业、促进产业国际化发展、维护供应链安全等方面的独特作用，进 一步推动贸易创新发展，是做好明年外贸工作的重要内容。 "十四五"时期，我国跨境电商在"卖全球"方面的潜力进一步释放，在"买全球"方面的优势也在持续 发挥。 跨境电商成为拉动贸易增长的重要引擎。2024年我国跨境电商进出口约2.7万亿元，比2020年增长 67%。2025年前三季度，我国跨境电商进出口约2.06万亿元，同比增长6.4%。据初步统计，到2024年上 半年，全国跨境电商主体已超12万家，建设海外仓超2500个、面积超3000万平方米。跨境电商也是畅通 国内国际双循环的重要载体。我国跨境电商平台由B2C(企业对消费者)向B2B(企业对企业)模式发展， ...

12月18日，2025泉州跨境电商供应链焕新大会正式启动。泉州发展集团供图 当天，政企学界代表携手发布《跨境电商出海倡议书》，倡议各方秉持共生共荣理念，加强产业链上下 游协同联动，构建安全韧性、高效协同的现代化产业生态，打造开放包容的跨境电商产业共同体。 来源：中国新闻网 12月18日，海外客商在2025泉州跨境电商供应链焕新大会上洽谈对接。泉州发展集团供图 中新网泉州12月18日电 (记者 孙虹)2025泉州跨境电商供应链焕新大会18日启动，来自中国、美国、巴 西、西班牙等多个国家和地区的海内外采购商、平台代表、行业专家在此共商供应链升级之道，共话跨 境出海新机遇。 在跨境电商领域，"七分靠选品，三分靠运营"是广为流传的成功法则。为切实破解选品难题，本次大会 深度整合泉州九大千亿产业集群与全市的优势资源，汇聚了鞋服、箱包、建材、卫浴、陶瓷、家居、电 子、户外、纺织、个护、母婴等全品类的"泉州优品"制造商。大会不仅集中展现了"泉州制造"的硬核实 力与创新成果，更通过联动晋江、石狮、丰泽等地打造的"泉州跨境产业会客厅"，为全球采购商提供了 高效、便捷的一站式选品平台。 作为侨乡泉州首个聚焦跨境电商供应链的专题大 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Quanzhou Cross-Border E-Commerce Supply Chain Renewal Conference has commenced, gathering international buyers, platform representatives, and industry experts to discuss supply chain upgrades and new opportunities for cross-border expansion [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The conference features a diverse range of products including footwear, bags, building materials, sanitary ware, ceramics, home goods, electronics, outdoor gear, textiles, personal care, and maternal and infant products, showcasing "Quanzhou Quality" manufacturers [3] - The event aims to create a one-stop selection platform for global buyers, enhancing efficiency and convenience in sourcing [3] Group 2: Industry Significance - Quanzhou has established itself as a global supply chain center for footwear, textiles, and food industries, with products like men's and sportswear being particularly favored in the cross-border market [3] - The local government expresses intentions to leverage the conference to expand sales channels for "Quanzhou Quality" products and facilitate global market access for local manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Mexico has approved a proposal to impose tariffs on products from non-free trade partners, which will take effect on January 1, 2026, potentially impacting trade relations with countries including China [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Proposal Details - The Mexican Senate voted to impose tariffs ranging from 5% to 50% on over 1,400 products, including footwear, textiles, clothing, metals, and automotive parts [3]. - Some tariffs on specific automotive parts, light industrial products, and textiles have been slightly reduced compared to the initial proposal submitted by the Mexican government [2][3]. Group 2: China's Response - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico in response to the tariff proposal, emphasizing the need to protect Chinese industry interests [2][4]. - China opposes unilateral tariff measures and urges Mexico to correct its protectionist approach [2]. Group 3: Broader Trade Context - The new tariffs come amid ongoing negotiations between Mexico and the United States regarding trade issues, particularly concerning water resource obligations [3][4]. - The U.S. currently imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, with temporary exemptions for products compliant with the USMCA, which may be extended as negotiations continue [4]. Group 4: China-Latin America Relations - China aims to deepen trade relations with Latin American and Caribbean countries, promoting cooperation in high-value products and technology-intensive goods [5][6]. - The Chinese government encourages participation in various international trade fairs and forums to enhance bilateral trade and investment cooperation [5][6].

Core Insights - The long-held belief of "insufficient consumption" in China is fundamentally misinterpreted, as actual consumption levels are comparable to or exceed those of developed economies in key categories [1][2] - The primary constraint on China's consumption performance is not the absolute consumption volume but rather the extremely low price levels and structural competitive pressures [1][3] Consumption Quantity - Quantitative research indicates that China's consumption is not inferior when compared to developed markets, challenging the perception of a significant gap [2] Price Dynamics - Despite adequate consumption volume, nominal consumption totals remain low due to pricing issues, with Chinese goods and services priced significantly below global averages, often less than 40% of U.S. prices [3][4] - Factors contributing to low pricing include declining inflation, weak income expectations, efficient supply chains from China's "world factory" status, excessive industry competition, and price controls in service sectors [3][6] Macro Consumption Disparity - The commonly cited metric of household consumption as a percentage of GDP shows China at approximately 40%, significantly lower than the U.S. at 68%, Japan at 54%, and South Korea at 48% [4] Impressive Consumption Volumes - Data from organizations like FAO indicates that per capita consumption in essential goods, particularly protein, eggs, seafood, and vegetables, has surpassed global averages, even exceeding that of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea [5] - In housing, the per capita living space in China reached 49 square meters in 2021, surpassing the UK and France, though still below the U.S. [5] Structural Factors - China's dominant position as a global manufacturer in sectors like electric vehicles and home appliances provides significant cost advantages, resulting in lower consumer prices [6] - Intense competition and disruptive innovation, driven by industry policies and rapid technological advancements, have led to aggressive pricing strategies [6] - Price controls in critical service sectors, such as healthcare and education, ensure affordability but contribute to lower nominal consumption figures [6] Misinterpretation of Consumption Gaps - The perceived macro consumption gap is overstated, with potential for consumption upgrades focusing on higher quality and experiential goods and services [7] Investment Opportunities - The coexistence of high consumption volumes and low prices suggests that companies must enhance operational capabilities to achieve superior returns, leading to the introduction of the E2SG investment framework to identify competitive winners [8] Comparative Analysis - Comparing China to culturally and economically similar East Asian economies like Japan and South Korea may provide a more accurate perspective on consumption dynamics [10] - Adjusting for the inclusion of "social transfers" in GDP calculations could significantly improve China's consumption-to-GDP ratio, narrowing the gap with South Korea and Japan [10] Strategic Focus Areas - Companies should focus on efficiency through cost control and operational speed to capture market share in a low-price environment [11] - Enhancing consumer experience through unique products and emotional value can drive premium pricing and market share growth [11] - Seizing opportunities in service sectors with high demand and low supply can lead to significant growth [11] - Global expansion may be a viable strategy for companies facing intense domestic competition, as seen with successful cases like Geely and Midea [11]

Export Performance - In October, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous month, and below the Wind consensus expectation of 3.1%[1] - The export decline is attributed to a high base effect and weakening external demand, with the new export orders PMI falling to 45.9, down nearly 2 percentage points from last month[1] - Exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed significant declines, with exports to Japan down 5.7% and to South Korea down 13.0%[2][3] Product Categories - Labor-intensive products saw a sharp decline, with exports of bags, textiles, and footwear down by 25.7%, 16.0%, and 21.0% respectively, collectively dragging down exports by approximately 2.1 percentage points[3][4] - High-tech products, however, supported export growth, with integrated circuits and automobiles growing by 26.9% and 34.0% respectively, contributing 5.1 percentage points to overall export performance[4][5] Import Trends - Imports grew by only 1.0% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a clear structural divergence[5] - Agricultural imports remained resilient, with a 7.0% increase, particularly driven by a 11.4% rise in soybean imports due to increased procurement from Brazil[5][6] - Energy and machinery imports faced declines, with coal and crude oil imports down by 27.5% and 0.3% respectively, reflecting ongoing price pressures[5][6] Market Outlook - Despite the short-term pressures on exports, structural resilience remains, particularly from non-US markets like ASEAN and Africa, which continue to support export growth[6] - The easing of US-China trade tensions may provide a temporary boost to exports, while high base effects and order depletion could pose challenges in the fourth quarter[6][7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected global economic recovery, which could further impact export performance[7][8]