Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in Chinese exports to the U.S. following the adjustment of tariffs, with container orders surging nearly 300% [1][3] - Data from Vizion indicates that container bookings from China to the U.S. rose by 277% to 21,530 standard containers, compared to 5,709 previously, reflecting a nearly threefold increase [1][3] - In Yiwu, a major trading hub in China, local merchants are experiencing a surge in orders as U.S. clients rush to place new orders, indicating a strong demand for Chinese goods [1][3] Group 2 - Despite the increase in exports, there is a lack of corresponding demand for U.S. goods in the Chinese market, as China continues to diversify its import sources, particularly in agricultural products [3][5] - China is investing in infrastructure in South America, such as a major export terminal in Brazil and a deep-water port in Peru, to enhance its agricultural supply chain [3][5] - Historical experiences, particularly in the soybean market, have made China cautious about relying heavily on U.S. agricultural imports, leading to a preference for established trade relationships with other regions [5][7] Group 3 - The article suggests that the current trade dynamics reflect a genuine demand for trade between the two countries, but China's reluctance to increase imports from the U.S. is influenced by past experiences and uncertainties regarding U.S. trade policies [7] - The ongoing instability in U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding high-tech industries, contributes to China's cautious approach in engaging with U.S. products [5][7] - Future developments in U.S.-China economic relations will depend on policy adjustments and cooperation negotiations between the two nations [7]

Economic Outlook - Consumer concerns about the economic impact of tariffs are rising, with inflation expectations for the next year reaching the highest level since 1981 [1][4] - The recent drop in consumer confidence index to 50.8 indicates a continuous decline for five months, reflecting consumer sentiment amid economic uncertainty [3][4] - The U.S. retail sales growth in April was only 0.1%, a significant drop from the previous month's 1.7% increase, suggesting cautious consumer behavior due to trade tensions [3][4] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve may maintain stable interest rates in the short term due to rising inflation expectations, with the potential for price increases driven by tariffs [4][5] - Recent inflation data shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.3% and core CPI at 2.8%, indicating a cooling trend in inflation [3][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to delay any interest rate cuts until September, as indicated by futures markets [5][6] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index recovering losses, driven by positive sentiment from trade talks [1][6] - Technology stocks led the market surge with an 8.1% increase, while consumer discretionary and communication services sectors also performed well [6][7] - Despite the rebound, concerns remain about high valuations, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 22 times [6][7] Credit Rating Impact - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting increased government debt and interest payment ratios, which may raise borrowing costs [7] - The downgrade comes amid heightened uncertainty in financial markets due to tariff policies, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown [7]

在通胀预期方面，消费者预期未来一年价格将以7.3%的年增速上涨，为1981年以来最高水平；而对未 来5至10年的年均通胀预期也上升至4.6%，创1991年以来新高。 此次调查是在4月22日至5月13日期间进行的，恰逢中美达成临时协议，同意在贸易谈判期间暂时互相减 少部分关税。然而，即便如此，密歇根大学消费者调查主管Joanne Hsu指出："临时的暂停并不足以让 消费者相信贸易政策已趋于稳定，从而放心地进行长期消费或投资规划。" 数据显示，接近四分之三的受访者自发提及关税问题，显示贸易政策持续成为消费者经济预期的关键影 响因素。这一担忧跨越党派界线，甚至有大量共和党支持者也表达了类似的忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，美国密歇根大学公布的最新数据显示，美国5月消费者信心指数意外下滑至50.8， 不仅低于4月的52.2，也创下历史第二低水平，仅高于2022年6月创下的最低纪录。这一结果低于外媒对 经济学家调查中几乎所有的预期值，凸显出民众对经济前景的悲观情绪。 尽管消费者对物价上涨的忧虑加剧，近期通胀数据却呈现出放缓迹象。美国政府公布的数据显示，4月 份扣除食品和能源后的核心消费者价格指数连续第三个月涨幅低于预期，表 ...

周四，美元在一系列美国经济数据公布后出现下滑。这些数据包括一项衡量消费者健康状况的指标，显 示由于经济前景不明朗影响了消费者信心，4月份零售销售增长放缓。美国商务部称，上月零售销售微 升0.1%，3月增幅上修为1.7%，而路透访查的经济学家的预期是保持不变。此前公布的3月份零售销售 增长1.5%，部分原因是消费者在特朗普宣布加征关税之前提前购买了汽车等商品。 零售销售增长放缓 4月份零售销售增长放缓，显示出消费者信心受到经济前景不明朗的影响。美国商务部的数据显示，上 月零售销售微升0.1%，低于经济学家预期的保持不变。这一数据反映了消费者在当前经济环境下的谨 慎态度，尤其是在贸易政策不确定性增加的背景下。 生产者物价指数下降 美国劳工部的另一份报告称，最终需求生产者物价指数（PPI）在上个月下降了0.5%，而3月份经向上 修正后为保持不变。这一下降主要归因于航空旅行和酒店住宿需求的减弱，这与特朗普的贸易保护主义 政策、打击移民以及一些争议性言论导致游客人数急剧下降有关。 衡量美元兑一篮子货币汇率的美元指数在盘中最多下跌0.43%之后，纽约尾盘下跌0.11%至100.89。欧元 兑美元上涨0.02%，报1.11 ...

博斯蒂克：预计今年降息一次，美国不会陷入衰退 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储博斯蒂克表示，他预计美国经济今年将放缓，但不会陷入衰退，并重申他 预计2025年将降息一次。博斯蒂克说，"由于不确定性和对前景的担忧给消费者带来压力，今年的经济 增长率可能达到0.5%或1%。波动的贸易政策也使企业更不愿意做出重要决定。我预计今年仅降息一 次，部分原因是，我认为不确定性不太可能很快自行解决。"虽然贸易形势有所降温，但博斯蒂克认为 谈判的最终结果仍不明朗。 ...

业内人士预计，未来90天中美两国之间的贸易将大幅增长。因为在双方谈判人员努力达成进一步协商进 展的同时，企业将竞相加大力度储备库存，尤其是美国进口商可能将再度发起一轮新的抢购潮。鉴于美 国进口商未来三个月将迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，高盛分析师Philip Sun表示，"未来90天， 中国的出口将爆火。'抢先'(Frontrunning)将成为关键词"。 2. 高盛预计四季度，中国央行再次"双降" 国外 1. 高盛预言：未来90天中国出口将爆火 5月13日，高盛在最新发布的研报中上调了对中国出口增长的预测，预计2025年实际出口增速与2024年 基本持平，此前的预测则是同比下滑5%；经常账户盈余占GDP比重也从1.7%上调至2.3%。货币政策方 面，高盛在同日发布的另一篇研报中认为，继中国央行近期"双降"（降准与降息）后，预计第四季度将 再次"双降"（50个基点降准+10个基点降息），2026年或追加两次各10个基点降息。综合对中国2025年 出口增速以及货币政策的假设，高盛还上调了中国今年二季度及下半年的GDP环比增速，并上调2025年 全年实际GDP增速。（证券时报） 3. 高盛：维持对中国股票的超 ...

美联储巴尔：供应链中断或导致通胀上升 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储巴尔表示，美国经济基础稳固，但他警告称，与关税相关的供应链中断可 能导致经济增长放缓和通胀上升。巴尔强调了小企业的重要性，以及它们在供应链和整体经济中的作 用。他表示，贸易政策给前景蒙上了阴影，增加了不确定性。对小企业来说，潜在的供应链中断"尤其 严重"，部分原因是它们获得信贷的机会较少。他补充道，小企业通常提供不易从其他地方获得的专业 投入，而企业倒闭可能会进一步扰乱供应链。 ...

美联储巴尔：美国经济基础稳固，通胀率有望降至2%，但贸易政策的不确定性影响了前景展望。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - T1 Energy generated revenue of $64.4 million in Q1 2025, primarily from initial deliveries under the Trina cost-plus offtake contract [30] - The company revised its 2025 EBITDA guidance down to a range of $30 million to $50 million from a previous range of $75 million to $125 million due to lower sales outlook [26][27] - T1 expects to have cash and liquidity of more than $100 million at year-end 2025, which includes a payment of $71 million related to debt services [27][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The production guidance for G1 Dallas was lowered to a range of 2.6 to 3 gigawatts from a prior guidance of 3.4 gigawatts, reflecting lower sales due to market uncertainty [24][25] - The company has 1.7 gigawatts of contracted sales at a cost-plus basis for 2025, with an expected 800 megawatt inventory financing facility being finalized [25][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - T1 is experiencing near-term headwinds due to tariff uncertainty, which has affected visibility into bill of materials costs for pricing [10][11] - The company is actively engaging with local, state, and federal lawmakers to promote interests in the U.S. solar production industry [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - T1 Energy is focused on building a domestic solar and battery supply chain to provide scalable, reliable, and low-cost energy [5][12] - The company is pursuing a vertically integrated U.S. solar supply chain with a target of producing modules with over 70% domestic content by 2027 [36] - T1 is advancing the development of G2 Austin, a planned U.S. solar cell manufacturing facility, which is expected to be a cash flow engine for the company [22][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that the fundamentals of the U.S. solar industry remain healthy despite near-term uncertainties [11] - The company is committed to pursuing margin sales that are attractive and will only engage in merchant sales when conditions are favorable [48][50] - Management expressed optimism about the long-term demand for domestic content and the execution of the U.S. vertical integration strategy [29][40] Other Important Information - T1 has signed a new 253 megawatt module sales agreement for 2025 with a utility-scale developer, marking a new customer acquisition [34] - The company is in advanced discussions with other utilities and developers regarding similar contracts [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Was the new 253 megawatt sales agreement with an existing customer or a new one? - The new agreement was with a new client developed with the help of the Trina sales team, not previously in the backlog [44][45] Question: What is the expected timing for the ramp in production? - Management indicated that production is designed to run at five gigawatts, and the focus is on securing attractive sales rather than overproducing [46][49] Question: Does the $100 million liquidity outlook include potential asset sales? - The liquidity outlook does not include asset sale proceeds, which would be incremental to the projected cash position [52] Question: What is the structure of the heads of agreement with the Saudi partner? - The agreement is still in early stages, but it is expected to involve a minority investment into G1 and G2 assets [54]

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's economic recovery faces unexpected disruptions, with GDP growth forecasted to slow down to 1.8% in 2025, down from previous expectations of 2.5% for 2024, due to multiple adverse factors impacting the economic outlook [2][9]. Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, up from 2.0% in 2023, driven by a 5.4% increase in goods exports, a 26.3% rise in international tourist arrivals, and a 4.4% growth in private consumption [8][9]. - The IMF has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.8%, highlighting the challenges posed by external factors such as U.S. tariffs and domestic political instability [9][10]. Policy Regulation - The Thai government has introduced an economic stimulus plan exceeding 500 billion THB (approximately 15 billion USD) to counteract slowing growth, focusing on consumption stimulation and investment [3][21]. - The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy interest rate from 2.25% to 1.75% to enhance market liquidity, with additional measures including debt relief programs and digital wallet initiatives aimed at supporting indebted households [3][21]. Trade Dynamics - U.S. tariff policies present uncertainties for Thailand's exports, with a trade surplus of 35.4 billion USD expected in 2024, and a corresponding tariff rate of 36% [4][30]. - In Q1 2025, Thailand's exports grew by 15.2%, supported by strong demand from the U.S. and China, but ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. remain stalled, posing risks to future trade performance [4][31]. Tourism Industry - The tourism sector is under scrutiny due to security incidents and the impact of the March earthquake, with international tourist arrivals increasing by only 1.9% in Q1 2025 [5][37]. - High-spending tourists from Western countries are partially offsetting the decline in Chinese visitors, but the overall recovery in tourism is expected to be slower than anticipated [5][38]. Capital Markets - The Thai stock market (SET Index) has fallen by 14.5% year-to-date, reaching a five-year low, driven by global market volatility and domestic economic challenges [6][46]. - Recommendations for investment strategies include diversifying into high-dividend blue-chip stocks, tourism-related sectors, and utilities, as well as taking advantage of potential stock buyback programs [6][47].