"尽管8月汽车产销数据尚未公布，但从协会周度跟踪的经销商零售数据来看，目前测算8月乘用车终端 零售量将超200万辆。"在郎学红看来，去年7月中旬"两新"加码，随后同年8月"两新"市场需求开始释 放，也让去年8月销量基数约200万辆。因此，今年8月车市能够实现同比正增长，是对外释放积极信 号。 虽然市场需求持续释放，但经销商端层面仍持续承压。此前，流通协会发布的《2025年上半年全国汽车 经销商生存状况调查报告》显示，今年上半年汽车经销商亏损比例上升至52.6%；新车的毛利贡献 为-22.3%。流通协会方面表示，新车普遍亏损的状况尚未改善，今年8月流动资金紧张与盈利压力持 续。郎学红表示，今年8月部分经销商集团发布半年报，其中仅一家营收实现增长。 尽管终端经营压力依旧，但对于即将到来的"金九银十"，经销商已全力进入冲销备战状态。数据显示， 今年8月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为57%，同比上升0.8个百分点。据了解，经销商补库现象出现在 8月最后一周。其中，主动补库的经销商是为备战"金九银十"。在郎学红看来，加大库存储备，将加剧 经销商流动资金紧张情况。 不过，对于"金九银十"，流通协会方面给出了乐观预判。流通协 ...

2025.09. 04 本文字数：2709，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑娜 8月原是房地产行业的传统淡季，市场通常会处于低位运行。但随着北京、上海等城市相继在本月出台楼市新政，优化限购、公积金贷款等政策，支持 购房需求的释放，搅动了购房淡季的平静。 受政策利好直接影响，北京、上海8月份的新房、二手房成交环比均有不同程度地增长；上海的二手房成交更是再度迎来单日破千套的表现；虽然深圳 尚无新政加持，但市场仍表现出韧性，二手房成交持续突破5000套的"荣枯线"…… 中指院表示，8月京沪出台的政策组合拳，其政策力度和时点均符合市场预期，也为市场注入信心，后续其他城市预计在需求端继续跟进。随着"金 九"到来，房企推盘节奏与优化力度预计均将提升，同时新一轮房地产支持政策也有望加快推出，借助全年重要的销售窗口，加速激活潜在需求，推动 市场"止跌回稳"。 北上新政立竿见影 政策出台后，市场迅速得到提振。克而瑞数据显示，新政出台后首周，北京新房网签环比上涨44.58%，二手房环比上升13.98%，房源带看量也明显 活跃。记者从开发商处获悉，8月9日、10日龙湖旗下一项目的来访量日均突破110组，环比提升超35 ...

业内预计，新一轮房地产支持政策也有望加快推出。 8月原是房地产行业的传统淡季，市场通常会处于低位运行。但随着北京、上海等城市相继在本月出台 楼市新政，优化限购、公积金贷款等政策，支持购房需求的释放，搅动了购房淡季的平静。 受政策利好直接影响，北京、上海8月份的新房、二手房成交环比均有不同程度地增长；上海的二手房 成交更是再度迎来单日破千套的表现；虽然深圳尚无新政加持，但市场仍表现出韧性，二手房成交持续 突破5000套的"荣枯线"…… 中指院表示，8月京沪出台的政策组合拳，其政策力度和时点均符合市场预期，也为市场注入信心，后 续其他城市预计在需求端继续跟进。随着"金九"到来，房企推盘节奏与优化力度预计均将提升，同时新 一轮房地产支持政策也有望加快推出，借助全年重要的销售窗口，加速激活潜在需求，推动市场"止跌 回稳"。 北上新政立竿见影 8月初，北京利好新政先行，规定符合条件的家庭（京籍家庭、连续缴纳社保或个税满2年的非京籍家 庭）在五环外购买商品住房不限套数，同时优化公积金贷款政策、二套房首付比例统一降至30%等，助 力降低居民的置业成本。 政策出台后，市场迅速得到提振。克而瑞数据显示，新政出台后首周，北京新房 ...

Group 1 - The automotive market is experiencing a consumption surge with the arrival of the traditional sales peak season, "Golden September and Silver October," as various automakers launch new models to capture market share and meet diverse consumer demands [1][10] - New energy vehicle (NEV) companies are expected to face intensified competition in the next six months, with safety and stability becoming critical competitive factors [1][10] - In September alone, at least 16 new car models were launched or upgraded, with over 70% being new energy vehicles, showcasing a vibrant market with diverse offerings [2] Group 2 - Major automakers are introducing new models tailored to the Chinese market, such as Audi's AUDI E5 Sportback and BMW's iX3, both aiming to attract younger consumers with competitive pricing [4][5] - The introduction of advanced technologies in new models, such as the Lynk & Co 10 EM-P and BYD's Fangchengbao, highlights the importance of technological innovation as a selling point [2][5] - Various automakers are targeting different market segments, from luxury to budget-friendly options, to cater to a wide range of consumer preferences [7] Group 3 - Government policies and automaker incentives are significantly driving consumer purchases, with new financial support measures like the personal consumption loan subsidy scheme set to lower economic costs for buyers [8][9] - Local governments are also implementing unique subsidy programs, such as cash incentives for purchasing new energy vehicles, further stimulating market demand [8] - Automakers are enhancing their promotional strategies, with companies like XPeng Motors and Buick offering attractive financing options and trade-in bonuses to boost sales [9] Group 4 - Economic experts express optimism about the automotive market's performance during the sales peak, attributing it to supportive policies and a recovering stock market that boosts consumer confidence [10] - The collaboration of various subsidies is effectively lowering the purchase threshold for consumers, particularly those sensitive to pricing [10] - To sustain sales momentum, automakers are encouraged to offer differentiated services and explore innovative use cases for vehicles, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou land market is becoming active as it enters the traditional "golden September and silver October," with significant transactions indicating confidence in the city's real estate sector [1][3]. Group 1: Land Transactions - Xiamen Guomao Real Estate successfully acquired a residential land parcel in Guangzhou's Liwan District for 506 million yuan, marking the first residential land transaction in September 2023 [1]. - The land parcel has a floor price of approximately 21,500 yuan per square meter and a total construction area of about 23,500 square meters, with a plot ratio of 3 [1][3]. - This transaction is notable as it represents a new player in the Guangzhou market, contrasting with previous acquisitions predominantly by local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Guangzhou land market is accelerating the release of new land parcels, with multiple announcements made in early September, including several high-quality plots [6][7]. - The market is expected to see more advantageous residential land offerings, which could invigorate market activity [7][8]. - The overall performance of the Guangzhou real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with new home transactions increasing by nearly 17% year-on-year in the first half of 2023 [9]. Group 3: Company Performance - Guomao Real Estate has been actively investing in Guangzhou, with a notable acquisition in May 2023 for 2.482 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% premium and a floor price of 24,700 yuan per square meter [4]. - The company reported a significant sales increase, achieving 25.41 billion yuan in sales in the first eight months of 2023, placing it among the top 20 real estate firms [4]. - As a member of the "three swordsmen" of Fujian state-owned enterprises, Guomao Real Estate's aggressive land acquisition strategy indicates strong confidence in the city's development [4].

Core Viewpoint - The new real estate policies in Shanghai aim to stimulate the housing market by relaxing restrictions on home purchases, allowing families to buy unlimited properties outside the outer ring, and enabling the use of public housing funds for down payments [2][3]. Policy Adjustments - The new policies optimize housing purchase limits, public housing funds, housing credit, and housing taxes [2]. - Families meeting certain criteria can now purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring [2]. - The differentiation in commercial loan interest rates between first and second homes has been eliminated [2]. Market Response - Following the announcement of the new policies, the Shanghai housing market showed signs of recovery, with new residential sales increasing significantly [3]. - In the week following the policy announcement (August 25 to August 31), the transaction area for new residential properties reached 113,400 square meters, a 35.25% increase month-over-month [3]. - The total transaction area for new residential properties in August was 401,000 square meters, reflecting a 17.5% month-over-month increase [3]. Sales Performance - The average price of new homes in Shanghai rose to 80,937 yuan per square meter, marking a 13.4% increase from the previous month and a 9.6% increase year-over-year [5]. - The outer ring areas experienced a notable increase in buyer interest, with project visits rising over 40% compared to before the policy changes [5][6]. Buyer Behavior - The new policies have led to increased buyer activity, with a reported 1,103 second-hand homes signed on August 30, the highest in three months [7]. - There was a 20% increase in inquiries for second-hand homes, and some sellers adjusted prices upward by 3% to 5% [7]. Future Market Outlook - The upcoming months, particularly September, are expected to see a boost in both transaction volume and price stability, as confidence among developers and homeowners increases [9][10]. - The market is anticipated to maintain a positive trajectory, with significant activity in both outer and inner ring areas [9][10].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，美国 7 月 JOLTS 就业人数录得 718.1 万人，低于市场 | | | 预期 738.2 万人和前值 743.7 万人，低靡的就业数据继续强化了 9 月降息预期。美联储 | | | 理事沃勒表示未来 3 到 6 个月可多次降息。基本面方面，"金九银十"是国内传统消费 | | 铜 | 旺季，在国内进口连续不及预期及废铜政策不明朗下开工率偏低下，精铜消费有望得 | | | 到较大提振，关注国内去库速度。海外部分国家债市的抛售潮及金价的异动使得市场 | | | 避险情绪走高，铜价表现偏谨慎，但基本面继续改善下，应仍偏乐观看待，重心有望继 | | | 续抬升，但也需要注意美衰退预期及高铜价对下游需求也形成制约，价格上行高度或 | | | 受限。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2959 元/吨，跌幅 2.15%，持仓增仓 13870 手至 26.2 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AL2510 收于 20725 元/ ...

新政出台当月，北京新房市场表现如何？中指研究院根据北京市住建委网签数据统计，8月份，北京新房成交面积38万 平方米，环比小幅增长4%，同比下降34%；二手商品住宅成交14123套，环比增长10%，同比小幅下降2%。而从周度数 据来看，新政出台后的3周里，北京新房网签量呈现"三连升"态势。 对于新政落地后的市场反应，中指研究院分析师王建梓分析指出："北京出台楼市新政后，对提升市场活跃度有一定带 动作用，部分新房楼盘到访和二手房小区带看略有增加。" 当前，房地产传统销售节点"金九银十"已正式到来，叠加前期出台的楼市新政，北京新房市场能否延续向好态势？对 此，合硕机构首席分析师郭毅判断："新政与'金九银十'销售节点形成双重助力，楼市热度是值得期待的。" 8月份，北京新房成交面积38万平方米，环比小幅增长4%。图/中指研究院 新政出台后新房成交量持续上涨 "8月8日出台的楼市新政属于微宽松范畴，对成交量的影响也是'微拉动'，集中显效期是在新政之后的3天时间，但是我 们发现，最近每个周末的成交量都比新政之前提升了20%-30%。"郭毅如是说。 除限购调整外，北京持续加大公积金支持力度也是此次新政的重要看点，包括二套房公 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX supply is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and good short - process benefits. Demand has some support but limited upside. PX11 is under observation, with support around 6600 and attention on oil price trends [2]. - PTA supply - demand is near a tight balance in September. Although the device maintenance execution is not as expected, the low absolute price is supported, but the driving force is limited. TA is under observation, paying attention to the support around 4600 and oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol has a "strong reality, weak expectation" supply - demand pattern. Short - term futures have limited downside, but the fourth - quarter supply - demand is weak. Attention is paid to the support of EG2601 around 4300 [2]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve in September, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows raw material fluctuations, with the disk processing fee oscillating between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip supply and procurement may both decrease in September, with inventory expected to increase. PR follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee has limited upside [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices fell due to weak demand and high - supply pressure. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export demand is also under pressure. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may be under pressure. Attention is paid to the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [8]. Methanol Industry - Methanol supply is expected to increase with the return of inland maintenance devices and high - level imports in September. Traditional downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure due to significant inventory accumulation, and attention is paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [10][11][12]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about increased OPEC+ supply in the fourth quarter. The disk may run weakly, with support levels for WTI at [62, 63], Brent at [65, 66], and SC at [470, 480]. Options can wait for opportunities to expand after increased volatility [19]. Polyolefin Industry - PE supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term, and PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation. Downstream industry开工率 has increased, but new orders have limited support. In September, the market shows a "supply - decrease, demand - increase" pattern, and it is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda market is supported by rigid demand, with low inventory in Shandong. The spot price may remain firm, and the disk callback space is limited. Attention is paid to downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [48]. - PVC supply - demand remains oversupplied. Supply is expected to increase in September, while demand remains weak. It is expected to continue weak and volatile, with cost - end support [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, while demand support is weak. Short - term absolute price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not fall deeply [53]. - Styrene supply is high in the short - term, with weak driving force. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement later. EB10 can be lightly long at low positions, and mainly short on rebounds later [53]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, WTI crude oil (October) was at 63.97 dollars/barrel, down 1.62 dollars or 2.5% from the previous day. Various polyester product prices and spreads changed, such as PTA, MEG, and different polyester fiber prices [2]. - **Inventory and Expected Arrival**: MEG port inventory was 44.9 million tons on September 1, down 10.2% from August 25, and the expected arrival was 4.4 million tons, up 122.7% [2]. - **Industry开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 75.6% on August 29, down 0.7% from August 22; PTA开工率 was 70.4%, down 1.2% [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 3, the 01 - contract futures price was 1714 yuan/ton, down 1.83% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 18.80 million tons on September 5, down 0.93% from September 4. Factory inventory increased slightly, and order days decreased [8]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. There were also changes in various price spreads and regional price differences [10]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 34.1083%, up 2.31%; port inventory was 142.8 million tons, up 9.88% [11]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.19% on Thursday, down 1.12% from the previous value; downstream MTO device开工率 was 78.56%, up 2.13% [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at 67.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.31% from the previous day; WTI was at 63.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.34% [19]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB was at 200.90 cents/gallon on September 4, down 0.15% from the previous day. Refined oil cracking spreads had different changes [19]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. There were also changes in price spreads and basis [23]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory on Wednesday was 45.1 million tons, up 5.57%; PP装置开工率 on Thursday was 80.2%, up 2.6% [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. PVC prices and price spreads also had changes [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.4% on August 29, down 0.8% from August 22; PVC total开工率 was 73.3%, down 2.3% [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at 734 dollars/ton, up 0.8% from the previous day. Styrene - related prices and spreads also changed [53]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 1.10 million tons on September 1, up 8.0% from August 25; domestic pure benzene开工率 was 79.2% on August 29, up 0.2% from August 22 [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The finished product is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting down and a weak performance [2][4] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a production resumption time around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished product continued to fluctuate downward, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing little price support [4] - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation. Factors to be concerned about are macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum - Macroscopically, the number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million, which supported investors' expectations of the Fed's monetary policy relaxation [3] - In September, the spot price of alumina is weakly running. The supply side has a slight increase in operating capacity and output, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise in September. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry changes little, and the high profit remains. The demand side shows signs of recovery in the downstream weekly start - up rate as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches [4] - As of September 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from Monday and 6,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - The view is that the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term. Factors to be concerned about are macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5][6]