玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/03 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 27.74% | 46.0% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1350 | 24.40% | 26.3% | source： 南华研究 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 现货 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 | 库存 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | FG250 9 | 卖出 | 50% | 1100 | | 璃 | 管理 | | 卖出看 ...

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月3日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3600 | 18.35% | 28.65% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价 格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做 空沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3500-3600 | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶 | bu ...

5月30日，上海银行联合外汇交易中心在外滩15号大楼成功举 办"新形势下企业汇率避险研讨"活动。本次活动聚焦全球经济 格局演变下的中国企业汇率风险管理议题，来自上海、深圳、 浙江、江苏地区制造、贸易、科创等行业近30名企业代表参 加。国家外汇管理局上海市分局国际收支处处长何念如、外汇 交易中心市场一部总经理华小岳、上海银行业务总监武俊、特 邀专家中信银行金融市场部总经理、中国外汇市场指导委员会 委员、全国外汇市场自律机制银行间市场规范工作组牵头人、 自律机制专家组牵头人孙炜出席本次活动。 作者：上海银行 封图：图片资料室 国家外汇管理局上海市分局国际收支处处长何念如围绕"汇率风险管理"主题，分享了汇率风险中 性理念，阐述了企业汇率风险管理的原则、框架和管理策略，强调了汇率双向波动背景下，企业聚 焦主业、规范化开展汇率风险管理的重要性和现实意义。 特邀专家中信银行金融市场部总经理孙炜以"特朗普关税政策下的国际形势研判"为主题，系统剖 析特朗普政府关税政策对国际秩序重构的传导效应，提出了在美国国家信用受到质疑、全球资产配 置转向多元化背景下，人民币将展现出极强韧性，人民币国际化将加速演进。 在主题分享环节，外汇交 ...

近年来，国内外市场环境复杂多变，丙烯行业发展面临产能结构性过剩，叠加行业处于高端化、绿色化转型期， 产业链企业风险管理需求强烈。丙烯期货和期权上市，有助于为产业链上下游企业提供定价和风险管理工具，提 高我国在化工行业的定价影响力，推动丙烯行业高质量发展。 5月30日，郑州商品交易所（以下简称"郑商所"）就丙烯期货和期权合约及期货业务细则公开征求意见。这意味着 我国产量最大的烯烃品种期货和期权即将推出。 丙烯是重要的基础化工品，上游连接原油、石脑油、煤炭、甲醇、丙烷等诸多原料，在下游可广泛应用于纺织、 化妆品、家电等领域，是石化工和煤化工产业承上启下的中间枢纽品种。 在化学纤维行业，丙烯经过聚合可得到聚丙烯，以聚丙烯为主要原料可生产丙纶（聚丙烯纤维）。丙纶具有轻 质、高强、耐腐蚀、可回收等特点，近几年在绳索、渔网、安全带、包装材料等产业用领域不断拓展应用，同 时，在床上用品、服装、地毯等纺织品领域也有较大市场空间。尤其是在"双碳"目标推动下，低碳、可循环的丙 纶产品市场前景广阔。 在交割方式方面，丙烯期货采用仓库标准仓单交割和厂库标准仓单交割，在保证交割效率和交割灵活性的基础 上，最大程度便利产业客户参与。 在 ...

Group 1 - The event "Stable Enterprises and Safe Agriculture - Futures Services for the Cotton Industry" was successfully held in Xinjiang, focusing on risk management strategies in the global cotton market [1] - The conference gathered macroeconomic experts, industry authorities, risk management institutions, and enterprise representatives to discuss practical solutions for the cotton industry [1] - A total of 69 cotton-related enterprises and 87 representatives recognized the event's contributions to risk management [1] Group 2 - Professor He Wenbin from Xinjiang Finance University highlighted three long-term trends affecting the global economy: geopolitical fragmentation, technological transformation, and the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity [3] - China is transitioning from a real estate-driven economy to one focused on technological innovation, with significant growth in trade surplus and high-tech exports [3] - He Wenbin predicts continued policy support for domestic demand through monetary easing and regulatory coordination, while also implementing proactive fiscal policies to counter external challenges [3] Group 3 - Sun Gang, Deputy General Manager of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Cotton and Hemp Co., emphasized the importance of hedging as a common tool for managing price volatility in the cotton market [5] - He proposed flexible use of options, such as "buying put insurance strategies" to lock in profits during price declines and "covered call strategies" to enhance returns [5] - Sun Gang stressed the need for enterprises to follow the "four strong" principles: strong logic, strong systems, strong review, and strong iteration to build a dynamic risk management system [5] Group 4 - Researcher Li Shuaige from Rongda Futures reported that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to grow by 2.93% year-on-year by 2025, with northern and southern Xinjiang increasing by 3.68% and 2.39%, respectively [7] - Favorable climate conditions have improved seedling emergence rates and height indicators, with an estimated total cotton production in Xinjiang for this year ranging from 6.75 million to 6.95 million tons [7] - This data provides essential reference for cotton-related enterprises to anticipate the new year's supply-demand dynamics and supports the application of futures tools [7] Group 5 - Wang Sijia, Assistant General Manager of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry's U.S. branch, analyzed the cotton market fundamentals, indicating a projected cotton production of 6.97 million tons in China for the 2024/2025 season, an increase of 1.02 million tons year-on-year [9] - However, consumption is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, leading to a rise in the inventory-to-sales ratio to 101.4%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The meeting served as a platform for cotton enterprises to exchange insights on macroeconomic assessments, supply-demand data, and risk management tools, addressing challenges posed by global trade restructuring and price volatility [9]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is the largest sugar production area in China, producing approximately 6 million tons annually, accounting for over 60% of the national output. The local government aims to enhance the integration of futures and spot markets to promote the sugar industry and regional economic development [1] Group 1: Market Background - In 2024, domestic sugar prices fluctuated, with the average sales price for sugar enterprises dropping from 6,561 yuan/ton to 6,075 yuan/ton. The total sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to be 11.15 million tons, an increase of about 1.19 million tons from the previous season [2] - The sugar market is influenced by various factors, including low carryover stocks and tight processing sugar sources, leading to strong spot prices initially. However, international market changes have introduced uncertainties, with expectations of increased domestic sugar imports and production, posing risks to future sugar prices [2] Group 2: Implementation Process - In January 2025, a major sugar enterprise in Guangxi adopted a hybrid trading model to lock in production profits amid concerns of falling sugar prices. This model integrated off-market options into their spot trading [3] Group 3: Business Model - The enterprise signed a spot purchase contract with a trading company, embedding structured off-market options into the contract while monitoring futures contract closing prices to confirm transaction volumes [4] Group 4: Pricing Scheme - The contract activates when the Zhengzhou sugar 2505 contract exceeds 5,920 yuan/ton, with a validity of 70 days and a base transaction volume of 50 tons per day. The pricing mechanism allows for premium sales compared to market prices, providing a safety margin against price drops [5] Group 5: Effectiveness Evaluation - The enterprise successfully achieved premium sales, with the 2505 contract price ranging from 5,821 to 6,198 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,170 yuan/ton. The average sales price was approximately 50 yuan/ton higher than the market price during the same period [6] Group 6: Risk Management and Training - The hybrid trading model simplifies the use of options for sugar enterprises, addressing challenges such as lack of expertise and management constraints. It enhances revenue while providing a safety margin against price risks [8] - Training sessions and workshops have been conducted to improve risk management awareness among enterprises, covering market trends, price volatility, and risk assessment methods [11] Group 7: Market Development - The introduction of short-term options in February 2023 is expected to significantly boost hybrid trading, allowing for better alignment with enterprises' short-term turnover needs and reducing costs associated with traditional options [12]

Core Insights - THPX signal source utilizes AI-driven quantitative signals to assist XAGBTC traders in identifying optimal trading opportunities in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency market [1][5][10] - The system enhances trading success rates and supports strategy optimization through advanced signal data processing and complex algorithmic calculations [5][6][9] Signal Data Processing - Signal data processing is crucial for accurately capturing market dynamics, enabling the identification of potential trading opportunities and risk factors through efficient analysis of real-time market data [5][6] - Machine learning algorithms underpin the signal data processing, providing a solid foundation for optimizing trading strategies [5] Algorithmic Mechanism - The algorithmic mechanism of THPX signal source employs complex mathematical models and real-time data analysis to efficiently predict market trends and optimize trading strategies [5][6] - By continuously updating and adjusting algorithm parameters, the system adapts to market changes, maximizing traders' profit potential [5][6] Market Trend Analysis - Market trend analysis plays a vital role in financial markets, helping traders make informed decisions by studying past data and predicting future trends [6][9] - THPX signal source leverages big data analysis and machine learning models for real-time monitoring and analysis of market trends, allowing traders to seize trading opportunities during market fluctuations [6][9] Risk Management Strategies - Integrated risk management modules within THPX signal source aim to reduce the impact of risk events by continuously monitoring market volatility and adjusting trading parameters accordingly [6][10] - The system employs AI models to predict potential risk events, providing preventive strategies to safeguard investors' capital [6][10] Trading Psychology and Emotional Management - Effective emotional management is essential for traders to maintain composure during market volatility, thereby avoiding impulsive decisions [8] - Developing a stable trading mindset is crucial for improving trading success rates [8] Technical Indicators and Trading Strategy Optimization - Technical indicators, such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), are vital tools for traders to identify market trends and potential trading opportunities [8] - Combining various technical indicators can enhance the accuracy of buy and sell timing, thereby increasing trading success rates [8] Overall Performance of THPX Signal Source - The application of THPX signal source in XAGBTC trading has significantly improved the precision of investment decisions, enabling traders to effectively capture market fluctuations and optimize entry and exit timing [10] - Data indicates that portfolios utilizing THPX signal source demonstrate superior performance in terms of return and risk control [10]

Core Insights - The article explores the lives and strategies of some of the most famous futures traders, highlighting their innovative methods, risk management techniques, and discipline, which provide valuable lessons for traders and investors [1][13]. Group 1: Richard Dennis - Richard Dennis, known as the "King of Trading," turned a small loan into over $200 million by his early 30s and is famous for the "Turtle Traders" experiment, proving that trading can be taught [2][4]. - His breakout strategy involves buying when prices break above a certain level and selling when they fall below, based on the assumption that trends tend to continue [4]. - Dennis emphasizes strict risk management, typically risking only 1-2% of his capital on any single trade, which helps him survive consecutive losses [4]. - He adjusts position sizes based on market volatility, increasing positions in low-volatility markets and decreasing them in high-volatility ones [4]. - Quick stop-loss orders are a key rule for Dennis, ensuring that losses are kept to a minimum [4]. Group 2: Paul Tudor Jones - Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp, is renowned for predicting and profiting from the 1987 stock market crash, reportedly tripling his funds that day [2][6]. - His global macro trading strategy involves making large bets across multiple asset classes based on macroeconomic trends, including futures [6]. - Jones values technical analysis alongside macroeconomic analysis, looking for chart patterns and signals for entry and exit points [6]. - He often takes contrarian positions, betting against prevailing market sentiment, believing that the best investment opportunities arise when market consensus is wrong [6]. - Dynamic risk management is central to his strategy, involving strict stop-losses and adjusting position sizes based on market volatility and confidence in trades [6]. Group 3: John W. Henry - John W. Henry, a legendary futures trader and owner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool FC, is known for his systematic, algorithm-driven trading approach [3][8]. - His trading strategy is based on systematic trend following, focusing on a wide range of futures markets to diversify risk and capture various market trends [8]. - Henry implements strict risk management rules, including capital allocation limits per trade and using stop-loss orders to protect against significant losses [8]. - He adopts a long-term perspective, willing to hold positions through drawdowns, believing in the long-term profitability of his strategies [8]. - Continuous research and development are crucial to his success, as he adapts his trading systems based on historical data and market behavior [8]. Group 4: Ed Seykota - Ed Seykota, an influential futures trader, is recognized for developing and implementing computerized trading systems in the 1970s [3][10]. - His strategy combines systematic trend following with emotional discipline, using automated systems to generate trading signals based on technical indicators and historical data [10]. - Seykota emphasizes the importance of position management in risk control, adjusting trade sizes based on market volatility to prevent significant damage to the overall portfolio [10]. - He is known for his focus on trading psychology, stressing the need to manage emotions and adhere to trading systems even during losing periods [10]. - Quick stop-loss orders are central to Seykota's strategy, allowing for rapid exits from losing trades to prevent small losses from escalating [10]. Group 5: Larry Williams - Larry Williams, a renowned commodity and futures trader, is famous for his short-term trading strategies and winning multiple trading competitions [3][12]. - His strategy focuses on short-term trading and precise market timing, particularly in commodity futures [12]. - Williams utilizes seasonal patterns in commodities as part of his trading approach [12]. - He emphasizes risk control, likening traders to warriors who need shields to protect themselves from losses, advocating for strong capital management [12]. - Williams believes that trading strategies should be personalized, akin to finding the right pair of shoes that fit well, rather than adhering to universally accepted methods [12].

Core Insights - Velos Markets provides a comprehensive trading ecosystem that connects global capital markets, catering to the increasing demand for professional and convenient trading tools among investors [1] Group 1: Function Analysis - The trading ecosystem is structured around three main pillars: Forex, Contracts for Difference (CFD), and cryptocurrencies, offering over 50 currency pairs and various commodities and stocks [3][4] - The platform supports high leverage up to 1:200 for CFDs, appealing to risk-tolerant traders, and includes major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum [3] - Velos Markets utilizes MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5, offering over 30 technical indicators and automated trading features, enhancing data-driven decision-making [4] - The deep liquidity ECN model connects to top liquidity providers, reducing spreads to 0.1-0.3 pips, facilitating high-frequency trading [4][5] Group 2: User Guide - New users can create accounts through identity verification, with a simulated account offering $100,000 in virtual funds for practice [7] - The trading interface features a "cockpit" design, allowing for real-time trading and strategy orders to automate trades based on market conditions [8][9] - Fund management options include credit cards, wire transfers, and e-wallets, with a recommended "pyramid" position management strategy to mitigate risks [10] Group 3: Advanced Techniques - A family office case study demonstrates a three-phase strategy achieving an annualized return of 15%, utilizing macro hedging and algorithmic trading [12] - The strategy involves adjusting leverage based on market volatility, optimizing returns while managing risks [12] Group 4: Trend Insights and Tool Synergy - Market data from 2024 indicates an increasing negative correlation between gold and Bitcoin, suggesting potential hedging strategies for investors [13] - The introduction of "carbon credit CFDs" opens new opportunities in green finance, linking carbon prices to energy company stock performance [13] - Velos Markets continues to evolve its platform to simplify complex trading processes for both novice and professional investors [13]

Group 1 - The core event involved Minmetals Futures conducting lectures on "Application Practices of Black Industry Derivatives" and "Application of Lithium Carbonate Industry Futures" at the University of International Business and Economics, aimed at educating and protecting investors [1][6] - The lectures featured insights from industry professionals, including Chen Bingkun and Jiang Quan, who provided a blend of theoretical depth and practical value to students [1][6] Group 2 - In the "Application Practices of Black Industry Derivatives" session, Chen Bingkun discussed the development of the Sino-US black industry chain and the critical role of financial derivatives in international market rule-making [3] - He introduced a price analysis framework based on industry cycles, macro policies, and economic operation laws, sharing practical methods for risk management, capital allocation, and trading strategy formulation [3] - Techniques such as spread resonance and dynamic position management were revealed, showcasing the investment wisdom of professional institutions [3] Group 3 - In the "Application of Lithium Carbonate Industry Futures" session, Jiang Quan analyzed the entire lithium element industry chain, emphasizing the strategic position of lithium carbonate as a core material for new energy vehicles and ternary lithium batteries [5] - He discussed the rapid expansion of market scale and the inherent logic behind price volatility, along with the operational mechanisms of lithium carbonate futures contracts [5] - Jiang Quan shared practical skills for risk assessment and hedging strategy design, based on years of experience serving real enterprises, focusing on the core goals of "locking in profits" and "optimizing profits" [5] Group 4 - The initiative reflects Minmetals Futures' commitment to integrating industry and education, fostering financial talent, and enhancing the rational investment level in the market [6] - The company plans to deepen cooperation with universities and conduct more diverse investor education activities to cultivate well-rounded financial professionals and contribute to a healthy, stable, and sustainable financial market environment [6]