A fresh reading Friday showing that inflation cooled slightly in September is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on course for another quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut next week amid continued concerns about the job market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 3% for the month of September, a tenth of a percent lower than expected, but inching up from the 2.9% rate in August. On a core basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the preferred Fed measure, inflation also ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yidu Tech (02158), has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating management's confidence in the stock's future appreciation potential [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Activity - On October 24, Yidu Tech repurchased approximately 21,200 shares for about 120,000 HKD in a single day [1] - The company has completed 10 share buybacks since September 26, totaling over 3.88 million ordinary shares and nearly 22.5 million HKD in total repurchase amount [1] Group 2: Total Return Swap Transaction - Yidu Tech announced a total return swap transaction with a nominal capital amount of approximately 54.4 million HKD, with Goldman Sachs as the counterparty, for a duration of about 3 years [1] - The purpose of this transaction is to hedge against the risk of future stock price appreciation, thereby reducing costs and cash flow risks associated with share purchases [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Analysts believe that the signing of the total return swap indicates management's optimistic outlook on the company's future stock price appreciation [1] - As of October 24, Yidu Tech's stock price closed at 5.74 HKD, reflecting a 2.87% increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yidu Tech (02158), has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating management's confidence in the stock's future appreciation potential [1][2]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Activity - On October 24, Yidu Tech repurchased approximately 21,200 shares for about HKD 120,000 [1]. - The company has completed 10 repurchase transactions since September 26, totaling over 3.88 million ordinary shares and nearly HKD 22.5 million in total repurchase amount [1]. Group 2: Total Return Swap Transaction - On October 23, Yidu Tech announced a total return swap transaction with a nominal capital amount of approximately HKD 54.4 million, with Goldman Sachs as the counterparty [1]. - The transaction is set for a duration of about three years and aims to hedge against the risk of future stock price appreciation [1]. Group 3: Management's Perspective - Analysts interpret the signing of the total return swap as a sign of management's optimistic outlook on the company's future stock price [1]. - The strategy of acquiring shares at a low point to mitigate the risk of increased costs due to stock price appreciation reflects the company's proactive risk management approach [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the future outlook of the palm oil market, focusing on supply, demand, and regulatory dynamics leading up to 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Climate Challenges and Regulatory Impact - Dr. Kian Pang Tan highlighted the dual challenges posed by climate change and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), predicting a 1% year-on-year decline in palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia due to aging trees, slow replanting, and increased pest issues [2]. - Extreme weather events, including droughts and floods, are further affecting harvesting progress, with forecasts indicating regional rainfall variability due to a weak La Niña phenomenon [2]. - The postponement of the EUDR implementation to the end of 2026 has led to mixed reactions within the industry and created confusion in market pricing mechanisms [2]. - However, the CEPA agreement between Indonesia and the EU, along with potential tariff exemptions from the U.S., may significantly boost export volumes in the coming years [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Outlook - Issabelle Cheah from UOB Kay Hian Futures noted that Malaysian palm oil production peaked in August and is now entering a seasonal decline, with October inventories expected to reach a peak [6]. - In China, strong soybean crushing has led to an increase in vegetable oil inventories to 2.4 million tons, with palm oil stocks rising to an 18-month high, indicating an oversupply situation [6]. - Indian port inventories have also reached a 20-month high, limiting import profits and expected to suppress purchasing demand during the festive season [6]. - The biodiesel program in Indonesia remains a key driver for domestic palm oil demand, with the potential implementation of the B45 policy expected to add an additional 1.9 million kiloliters of demand, equivalent to 1.7 million tons of CPO usage [6]. - The U.S. EPA's ruling on small refinery exemptions (SRE) could also significantly impact soybean oil demand [6]. Group 3: BMD's Strategic Positioning - Brandon Chia from the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) discussed the strategy to establish BMD as a global pricing center for edible oils, noting that the FCPO contract has become the most liquid palm oil trading tool globally, accounting for 97% of global futures trading volume [5]. - The FCPO contract serves as a price benchmark for sustainable palm oil trading, with all physical deliveries required to meet MSPO certification [5]. - New products introduced include USD-denominated used cooking oil futures (FUCO) and soybean oil futures (FSOY) authorized by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, providing market participants with additional risk management tools and supporting the transition to renewable energy [5].

Core Insights - The total funds in China's futures market surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024, indicating a significant growth in market scale and maturity [1][2] Group 1: Funding Expansion - The continuous increase in total funds is driven by three main factors: policy empowerment, product adaptation, and demand upgrade, reflecting a fundamental optimization of the market ecosystem [2] - Regulatory policies have laid a solid foundation for development, with the State Council's guidelines promoting "safe regulation, steady development, and gradual opening" [2] - The expansion of the product system has provided a core vehicle for growth, with 157 futures and options products currently listed, enhancing the alignment with real demand [2][3] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The comprehensive upgrade of real demand has activated funding momentum, with a record number of companies engaging in hedging activities, indicating a rising need for risk management [3] - The participation rate of listed companies in hedging reached 29.9%, up 1.3 percentage points from the end of 2024, showcasing the increasing importance of futures for risk management [3] Group 3: Structural Optimization - The leap in funding scale is accompanied by systematic improvements in market structure, including upgrades in client structure, trading structure, and service structure [4] - The client structure is increasingly characterized by institutional and international drivers, with effective client numbers exceeding 2.7 million, a 14% year-on-year increase [4] - The trading structure has shifted towards rational trading, with a 24.11% year-on-year increase in cumulative trading volume, driven by hedging and long-term investment [4] Group 4: Service Transformation - The service structure has transitioned from a mere transactional role to a comprehensive ecosystem, enhancing the precision of financial services to the real economy [5] - Futures companies are now offering integrated services that combine on-exchange and off-exchange, domestic and international, and technology and service [5] Group 5: Future Challenges and Pathways - The ongoing inflow of funds and structural optimization are crucial for the effective functioning of the futures market in price discovery, risk management, and asset allocation [6] - The market's milestone of 2 trillion yuan represents both an achievement and a new starting point, necessitating continued innovation in products and systems to address service gaps [7] - Strengthening technology and talent support is essential for enhancing service precision, with a focus on utilizing big data, blockchain, and AI [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of $16.9 million for Q3 2025, an increase of 8.3% compared to Q2 2025, resulting in a return on assets (ROA) of 1.41% and a return on equity (ROE) of 15.1% [8][9] - Total assets surpassed $5 billion for the first time, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.3% since the IPO in November 2021 [6] - The efficiency ratio improved to 53.05% for Q3 2025, indicating better operational efficiency [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income increased by $1.5 million, or 3%, primarily due to a better-than-expected net interest margin and growth in average earning assets of $229 million [9] - Average loans rose by $158 million compared to Q2 2025, while period-end loans increased by $85.4 million [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits increased by $92 million for the quarter, resulting in a loan-to-deposit ratio of 95% [9] - The yield on the investment securities portfolio was 6.07% as of September 30, 2025, with total investment securities rising to $583 million [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a definitive merger agreement with Keystone Bancshares, expected to close in Q1 2026, which will create a combined entity with total assets exceeding $6 billion [14] - The merger aims to enhance market presence and leverage shared commitment to relationship banking and customer service [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting loan growth targets of $50 million to $100 million in Q4 2025, supported by strong loan pipelines [15] - The company remains disciplined in underwriting and portfolio management practices to ensure high-quality growth [15] Other Important Information - The company achieved new records in book value and tangible book value, reaching $32.25 and $30.91, respectively [6] - The successful completion of the bank's first and second securitization transactions received international recognition, winning the SCI Risk Sharing Award for North American Transaction of the Year [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Integration process timeline for the Keystone merger - The integration is expected to be straightforward due to operational compatibility, with a core conversion planned for early Q2 2026 [19][20] Question: Loan growth expectations for Q4 - The company is comfortable with the $50 million to $100 million loan growth target, although year-end paydowns may affect final figures [21][22] Question: EPS accretion expectations from the merger - EPS accretion estimates are based on consensus, with expectations that the number may change following the current earnings report [29][30] Question: Near-term securitization strategy - A third securitization is being considered, likely in Q1 2026, but it will depend on customer demand [33] Question: Future M&A opportunities - The company is open to additional deals but will maintain a high bar for any future acquisitions, focusing on cultural fit and financial rewards [50][51] Question: Fee income growth and expectations - Fee income has shown strong momentum, with expectations for a slight step down in Q4 due to seasonal factors [42][44] Question: Hiring efforts to support loan growth - The company is selectively hiring top talent to support growth, focusing on high productivity and quality candidates [46][48] Question: Geographic expansion plans - The company aims to build around the Texas Triangle and is open to opportunities that enhance shareholder value [73][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company surpassed $5 billion in total assets for the first time, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 19.3% since its IPO in November 2021 [5] - Net income for the third quarter was $16.9 million, an increase of 8.3% compared to the second quarter of 2025, resulting in a return on average assets (ROAA) of 1.41% and a return on equity (ROE) of 15.1% [8][9] - The efficiency ratio improved to 53.05% for the third quarter, indicating better operational efficiency [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income increased by $1.5 million, or 3%, primarily due to a better-than-expected net interest margin and growth in average earning assets of $229 million [9] - Average loans rose by $158 million compared to the second quarter, while period-end loans increased by $85.4 million [9] - Non-interest expenses remained stable, with salary and employee benefits rising but legal and professional expenses declining [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits increased by $92 million for the quarter, resulting in a loan-to-deposit ratio of 95% [9] - The yield on the investment securities portfolio was 6.07%, with total investment securities rising to $583 million [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a definitive merger agreement with Keystone Bancshares, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, which will create a combined entity with total assets exceeding $6 billion [14] - The merger aims to enhance market presence and leverage shared commitment to relationship banking and customer service [15] - The company remains focused on organic growth, targeting loan growth of $50 to $100 million in the fourth quarter [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting loan growth targets, citing strong demand and a robust loan pipeline [15][21] - The company anticipates that the remainder of 2025 will be consistent with prior quarters, with a disciplined approach to underwriting and portfolio management [15] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong credit quality and risk management practices [11] Other Important Information - The company received international recognition for its securitization transactions, winning the SCI Risk Sharing Award for North American Transaction of the Year [5] - The company is positioned as a strong performer in the market, with a commitment to delivering sustained value for shareholders [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Integration process timeline for the merger with Keystone - Management expects a straightforward integration process, targeting an early second quarter core conversion [18] Question: Loan growth expectations for Q4 - Management remains comfortable with the $50 million to $100 million loan growth target, despite potential volatility in paydowns [19][20] Question: EPS accretion expectations from the merger - EPS accretion is based on consensus estimates, with management believing the actual number may be more favorable due to potential synergies not included in initial projections [26][28] Question: Near-term securitization strategy - A third securitization is being considered, likely in the first quarter of the following year [30] Question: Future M&A opportunities - The company is open to future deals but emphasizes the need for financial rewards and cultural fit, maintaining a disciplined approach [45][47] Question: Fee income and growth initiatives - Fee income has shown strong momentum, with expectations for continued growth, although a slight step down is anticipated in the fourth quarter due to seasonal factors [36][38] Question: Hiring efforts to support loan growth - The company is selectively hiring top talent to support growth, focusing on high productivity and cultural fit [41][43] Question: Geographic expansion plans - The company aims to continue building around the Texas Triangle and is open to opportunities that enhance shareholder value [61][63]

南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/10/23 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 沪镍不锈钢目前持续跟随大盘震荡，日内整体金属偏强运行，沪镍跟涨有限，后续或有一定补涨；基本面近 期无明显变动，宏观层面年内仍有降息预期，中美关税进展反复调整风险偏好。镍矿方面印尼公布26年配额 申报法规，新规细则趋于严格，规定矿产生产企业共可提交两次申请，若未通过申请则没有任何生产配额。 新能源方面后续步入旺季，下游采购需求持续处于高位，目前报价连续数周上涨；当前市场流通偏紧，库存 较低且仍有询单，后续或延续强势。镍铁近期价格上涨动力匮乏，整体重心明显下滑。不锈钢方面日内有一 定上行，技术面行有一定反弹趋势，现货成交主要以借势出货为主，贸易商灵活调价出货，成交价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Yidu Tech (02158) regarding a total return swap transaction with Goldman Sachs indicates a strategic move to hedge against future stock price appreciation risks, reflecting management's optimistic outlook on the company's valuation potential [1] Group 1: Total Return Swap Transaction - Yidu Tech's subsidiary entered into a total return swap transaction with a nominal equity amount of HKD 54.4047 million, with a duration of approximately three years [1] - The purpose of this transaction is to mitigate the risk of stock price appreciation, particularly in relation to the potential costs and cash flow impacts associated with a share incentive plan post-IPO [1] Group 2: Stock Buyback and Valuation - Yidu Tech has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought back over 3.86 million ordinary shares at a total cost exceeding HKD 22 million since September 26 [1] - Analysts believe that the company's stock is significantly undervalued based on price-to-book ratios and the latest valuations of its international business and key asset reserves, excluding conservative estimates of domestic operations [1] Group 3: Management's Optimistic Outlook - The decision to enter into the total return swap transaction suggests that the management is optimistic about the company's future stock price appreciation potential [1] - By acquiring shares at a low point, the company aims to hedge against the risk of increased costs due to stock price appreciation, demonstrating a proactive risk management strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that diversified asset allocation and refined fund selection are key to building a long-term viable FOF (Fund of Funds) portfolio [2][6]. Asset Allocation and Fund Selection - Increasingly, investors are recognizing diversified asset allocation in FOFs as a superior "fixed income plus" strategy, offering better risk-return ratios compared to traditional stock-bond combinations [2]. - Zhao Zhiyuan, General Manager of ICBC Credit Suisse FOF Investment Department, highlights that each FOF has its own risk-return objectives, necessitating tailored asset allocation plans [3][10]. - The strategic asset allocation for the ICBC Value Steady 6-Month Holding Mixed (FOF) product is set at 80% bonds and 20% risk assets, with further diversification within the risk assets into A-share funds, low-volatility dividends, overseas US stocks, and commodities like gold [4][15]. Dynamic Management - Zhao emphasizes the importance of dynamic management based on market changes, citing an example where adjustments were made following tariff policy changes that led to market fluctuations [4][11]. Fund Selection Process - The fund selection process focuses on distinguishing between skill and luck in investment performance, utilizing quantitative analysis and qualitative research to identify stable fund managers [5][18]. - The internal culture at ICBC Credit Suisse promotes trust and sharing among research teams, enhancing the decision-making process [5][20]. FOF Investment Framework - The FOF investment framework is built on managing uncertainty through diversified asset allocation, aiming to create resilient portfolios that can adapt to various market conditions [10][9]. - The FOF team consists of 12 members with diverse backgrounds, emphasizing collaboration and knowledge sharing to enhance investment strategies [21][20]. Future Outlook - The article discusses two main growth opportunities for FOF products: personal pension Y shares and wealth management as a substitute for traditional financial products [25][26]. - Personal pension funds are highlighted for their potential to allocate higher equity assets, providing better long-term returns as the domestic capital market develops [27]. - The article concludes with a market outlook, suggesting that while short-term volatility may persist, a medium-term upward trend is anticipated, driven by policy support and corporate earnings recovery [30][34].