IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：全球经济已证明能够抵御频繁的冲击。 ...

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market remains active in April 2025, with equity products being the main driving force [1] - A total of 127 public funds were launched in April, maintaining a stable issuance pace with 84 equity funds accounting for 66.14% of new funds [1] - Bond fund issuance saw significant growth, with 28 new products launched in April, marking a 16.67% increase from March [1] Group 2 - Among bond funds, medium- and long-term pure bond funds were the most popular, with 14 new funds launched, representing 50% of bond fund issuance [2] - Mixed fund issuance showed a clear preference for equity-oriented mixed funds, which made up 90% of the 10 new mixed funds launched in April [2] - The recovery in fund issuance is closely linked to current market conditions, with investors focusing on long-term opportunities despite short-term macroeconomic fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Following the announcement of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, major Chinese stock indices experienced volatility, with A-shares showing more stability compared to Hong Kong stocks [3] - A-shares are supported by a more stable funding base and lower foreign investment, which contributes to their resilience against external risks [3] - The market is expected to shift focus from external factors to domestic policies, as China has ample policy reserves to address uncertainties in the external environment [3]

根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至4月29日当周的数据，各类金融产品的投机者持仓发生了显 著变化。贵金属市场中，黄金的净多头寸减少了9,857手至115,865手，显示出市场对金价短期走势的谨 慎态度，可能与美元走强或避险需求减弱有关。与此同时，白银的净多头寸增加了5,078手至31,252手， 反映出投机者对白银价格的乐观预期，这可能是由于工业需求预期改善或贵金属市场的分化。铜的净多 头寸也有所增加，增加了3,424手至20,013手，表明市场对全球经济复苏和工业需求的信心增强。 在能源市场方面，WTI原油的净多头寸小幅增加2,716手至116,599手，显示投机者对油价持温和乐观态 度，但增幅有限，表明市场仍存在不确定性。相比之下，天然气的净多头寸大幅减少14,904手至185,432 手，反映了市场对需求疲软或库存增加的担忧。 外汇期货市场上，欧元维持较高的净多头寸75,797手，显示投机者对欧元区经济前景的相对信心；英镑 的净多头寸为23,959手，反映市场对英国经济或货币政策的温和乐观情绪；日元的净多头寸达到179,212 手，表明投机者可能押注日元升值或利用其作为避险资产的特性；瑞郎则出现 ...

精华观点 1.地区经济影响与应对 ·中国：受房地产低迷和外部关税冲击，经济面临挑战。政策聚焦扩大内需、科技 发展和持续开放。关税冲击短期内是巨大的需求冲击，预计经济增长放缓，今年约 3.5%，明年约 3%，政策上财政政策为主，货币政策为精，汇率保持相对稳定， ·欧洲：虽面临贸易战冲击，但有望成为贸易和多边合作的稳定选择，财政刺激和 国防安全支出增加，将推动经济转型，增强市场稳定性和欧元地位。不过，短期内不 确定性对投资不利，经济增长面临挑战。 ·亚洲：原本增长态势良好，部分经济体消费和出口表现出色。但关税冲击对地区 经济增长有害，部分国家如越南、韩国等暴露度高。各国应加强区域经济一体化，推 动贸易协定有效实施，利用与美国谈判契机推进改革。 2.全球经济前景与趋势：国际货币基金组织下调全球经济增长预期，亚洲在当前 关税情景下表现或优于相互加征关税情景，欧洲短期增长受不确定性影响为负。全球 经济有去美国中心化趋势，地区一体化加强，供应链区域化发展， 3.中美关系与政策展望：中美关系出现结构性变化，难以短期内逆转。美国关税 政策目的多元且不明确，未来或需更有针对性的产业政策。中国在贸易谈判中保持开 放态度，基于国内 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that the unilateral tariff measures announced by the United States are reckless and detrimental to global markets, disrupting trade and supply chains, particularly affecting underdeveloped economies [2][3] - The U.S. is attempting to hinder the economic development of China and other emerging market countries, which is seen as a futile effort that ultimately harms the global economic system [2] - The imposition of tariffs and the disruption of supply chains will complicate the global economic recovery process, with negotiations for new agreements likely to be challenging and frustrating [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government's claims that its tariff measures are "fair" and "reciprocal" are dismissed as absurd, ignoring the realities faced by many underdeveloped economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [3] - The actions of the U.S. are characterized as a brutal attack aimed at obstructing the emergence and development of new production centers, despite the U.S. having a significant advantage in wealth and power over these countries [3] - In contrast, China is taking calm measures to respond to U.S. tariffs, focusing on building stronger trade and communication networks with economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which are expected to grow [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to announce an increase of 410,000 barrels per day in June for the second consecutive month [1] - The firm maintains its price forecast for Brent crude at $63 and WTI at $59 for the remainder of 2025, with expectations of $58 and $55 respectively for 2026 [1] - A global economic slowdown or a complete reversal of OPEC+'s voluntary production cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day could push Brent crude prices into the $40 range by 2026, with extreme scenarios potentially seeing prices below $40 [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that Iranian supply will continue to see a moderate decline starting from the second half of 2025 [1]

高盛：继续估计全球经济放缓或欧佩克+自愿减产220万桶/日的计划完全逆转，可能会在2026年将布伦 特原油价格推至40美元的区间，在不太可能出现的极端情况下，布伦特原油价格将低于40美元。 ...

住友商事CEO：我们在盈利预测中已考虑到关税可能引发的全球经济衰退。 ...

住友商事CEO：我们正面临前所未有的全球经济衰退风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda anticipates a cooling of overall inflation due to tariff measures and a slowdown in global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The expectation of inflation moderation is linked to external factors such as tariff policies [1] - Global economic growth slowdown is identified as a contributing factor to the anticipated decline in inflation [1]