Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market for logs is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The prices of mainstream log varieties have remained stable, and the inventory in major ports has generally increased. Shipping schedules indicate a certain volume of log arrivals in the near future, and factors such as freight rates and exchange rates are also showing corresponding changes [4][6][20] Summary by Section Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the quotes in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week at 755 yuan/cubic meter, with a regional price difference of 0. The prices of other specifications of radiata pine in Shandong also remained stable. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4] Supply - As of November 23, there were 29 ships departing from New Zealand in November, with 23 bound for the Chinese mainland and 6 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea (with reduced loads). Among them, about 12 ships are expected to arrive in November, and 17 in December. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.41 million cubic meters [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 23,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 13,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.3628 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 70,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 401,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 30,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 238,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 25,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 173,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 7,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1769 million cubic meters, an increase of 66,900 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] Market Trends - As of November 27, the closing price of the main contract LG2601 was 765 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 1.7% from last week. The market continued to fluctuate weakly this week, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spread changes this week were relatively small, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at - 11.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at - 25 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at - 13.5 yuan/cubic meter [20] Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various specifications of radiata pine and spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week, but there were different degrees of decline compared to four weeks ago [24] - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [24][27] - **Species and Specification Spread**: It shows the price differences between different tree species and specifications, such as the price difference between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [38][39] Other - As of the week of November 30, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2480.00 points, an increase of 205 points (+9.0%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 825 points, an increase of 0.6% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.13 points, an increase of 0.7% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.079, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 2.4% to 1.748 [6][53]

人民财讯11月29日电，美元指数11月28日下跌。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.12%， 在汇市尾市收于99.444。 （原标题：美元指数28日小幅下跌） ...

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.10% to 99.44 points at the end of trading on Friday, November 28, with a cumulative decline of 0.33% for November, trading within a range of 100.39 to 98.99 points, showing an M-shaped trend [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.13% to 1217.84 points, with a cumulative decline of 0.29% for November, trading between 1228.98 and 1213.92 points [1]

美国国债收益率和美元上涨，尽管因芝加哥商业交易所的技术故障导致交易依然零散。法国兴业银行策 略师在一份报告中称，芝商所故障干扰了期货交易，与此同时美元兑其他G10货币走强。DXY美元指数 上涨0.2%，至99.772。各期限美国国债收益率上涨多达3个基点，但买卖价差仍然很阔，表明因芝商所 故障以及周四美国感恩节假期刚过，交投清淡。据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美国国债收益率上涨0.8个 基点，报4.006%。 ...

黄金方面： 恰逢美国重要假期，近期黄金市场基本面较为清淡。此前公布美国经济数据显示，截至11月22日当周，美国初请失业金人数录 得21.6万人，低于市场预期的22.5万人，创下了今年4月份以来的最低水平。 美联储经济褐皮书提到，美国政府停摆对消费者决策产生了负面的影响，低收入者受到了直接冲击，在美国经济面临压力的背 景下，美联储延续宽松的货币政策将是大概率事件。 地缘政治方面，俄罗斯总统普京表示，和平协议目前尚无最终版本，暗示俄乌冲突想要结束停火仍然存在不确定性。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，市场对美联储宽松的预期押注以及地缘仍然存在不确定性，短期将为金价提供支 撑。 技术面：日线上，近期黄金价格震荡上行为主，表现较为强势。指标上看，20日均线拐头向上，暗示金价有机会再度上行。日 内关注上方4231美元一线压力，下方关注4155美元一线支撑。 本周在美国经济数据并不亮眼的背景下，美联储官员们公开讲话中再度倾向降息，美元指数从高位回落。 短期来看，美国经济数据好坏参半，美联储内部对于降息仍然存在分歧，美元指数维持高位震荡调整的概率比较大。 从中长期来看，美国的债务水平巨大，需要美联储降息以缓解压力；特 ...

对于人民币兑美元的走升，兴业证券指出，弱美元、国内基本面韧性和大国竞争力提升、央行稳汇率政策保持力度、年末结汇需求阶段 性释放等因素，共同驱动人民币汇率走强。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币对美元中间价持续向偏强方向调整，这或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下 跌，而人民币兑美元汇价尽管有所升值，但未能与之充分匹配有关。这意味当前汇市调控正在向推动CFETS等人民币对一篮子货币汇率 指数适度上行方向发力。这有助于为我国外贸企业提供稳定的外部环境。此外，今年我国出口超预期，7月以来国内资本市场走强，再加 上近期中美经贸关系缓和。这些因素在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振了市场对人民币的信心。 新华财经北京11月28日电（马萌伟）近期，人民币兑美元汇率加速升值。28日，人民币对美元中间价下调10点报7.0789，年内涨幅为 1095个基点。截至27日收盘，今年在岸人民币兑美元累计上涨2183个基点，离岸人民币兑美元涨2635个基点。 市场分析称，伴随美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限。展望2026 年，人民币汇率走势或迎来多重利好因素，预计人 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Also, the short - term market has fully priced in the December interest rate cut, and there is significant technical pressure at the previous high levels [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is the macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts. There is significant selling pressure at certain price levels, and there is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price movement: Recently, the gold price has been oscillating with a slight upward bias. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening US dollar index provide upward momentum, but the upward trend has slowed down. It may tend to oscillate [3]. - Technical analysis: New York gold faces significant technical pressure near the previous high of $4200, corresponding to the 950 - yuan mark of domestic Shanghai gold [3]. Copper - Price movement: Recently, Shanghai copper has been oscillating with a slight upward bias, and the trading volume has increased significantly. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan for domestic copper and at the $11,000 mark for London copper [4]. - Macro - level: The US dollar index has stabilized and rebounded, putting pressure on copper prices, but it faces significant pressure at the 100 mark [4]. - Industry situation: There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas marginal inventory accumulation and domestic marginal inventory reduction. The spot premium of Shanghai copper has strengthened slightly [4].

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced significant fluctuations influenced by economic data interpretations and diverging Federal Reserve policies, with a low of 99.0050 and a high of 99.6842 during the trading session [1] - Recent US economic data showed mixed results, with core durable goods orders slowing down while initial jobless claims fell to a seven-month low of 216,000, indicating labor market resilience [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed increasing divergence regarding December policy, with dovish members supporting rate cuts while hawkish members opposed them due to inflation concerns [1] Group 2 - The dollar's recent pullback is primarily driven by expectations of policy easing rather than a retreat from safe-haven assets, as evidenced by the relative strength of the yen against higher beta European currencies [2] - The Thanksgiving holiday in the US led to a sharp decline in dollar liquidity, amplifying volatility in the yen and raising expectations of potential intervention by Japanese authorities [2] - The dollar index is currently at a critical decision-making stage, testing a dual support area formed by the rising trend line and the 200-day EMA around 99.40 [3] Group 3 - If the bulls successfully defend the trend line and the 200-day EMA support, and hawkish comments lead to a cooling of rate cut expectations, the dollar index could rebound to 99.98 and challenge the recent high of 100.38 [4] - Conversely, if the index breaks below the 99.40 support and the probability of a December rate cut rises above 90%, it may drop to 99.10, weakening the short-term upward structure established since early October [4] - The effectiveness of the trend line support and changes in policy expectations remain critical observation points for the future direction of the dollar index [4]

Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD opened slightly lower at 7.0810, compared to the previous day's closing of 7.0806 [1] - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.0700 as of 9:30 AM [1] - The RMB central parity rate against the USD was set at 7.0789, down by 10 basis points from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The USD index fluctuated above the 99 mark, reported at 99.5827 as of 9:30 AM [2] - According to Guosen Futures Research Institute, the current environment of likely continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and a relatively active domestic capital market suggests that the RMB against the USD may remain stable and strengthen [2] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets and positively impact the international monetary function of the RMB [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a new high since October 2024, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, and a cumulative rise of approximately 1000 basis points this year [1]. Exchange Rate Performance - The offshore and onshore yuan both surpassed 7.09 against the US dollar on November 25, marking a new high in over a year. On November 26, both rates further strengthened, with the onshore yuan peaking at 7.0788 and the offshore yuan reaching 7.07595, the highest levels since mid-October 2024 [2]. - The CFETS yuan index reached 98.22, the BIS yuan index was at 104.66, and the SDR yuan index stood at 92.60, all reflecting a significant increase [2]. Reasons for Strength - The yuan's strength is attributed to multiple factors, including a positive domestic economic outlook, strong foreign trade performance, and increased capital market activity since July, which has boosted demand for yuan [3]. - The weakening of the US dollar, influenced by disappointing retail sales and signs of a softening labor market, has also contributed to the yuan's appreciation [3]. Market Expectations - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding the yuan's exchange rate, with expectations of continued strength in the short term. Analysts predict a stable trend with limited volatility against the US dollar, and a low likelihood of rapid appreciation above 7.0 before year-end [4]. - The demand for yuan is expected to remain balanced as the year-end approaches, with potential for moderate strength in the exchange rate [4]. Policy Factors - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [5]. - Factors such as economic recovery, stable US-China trade relations, and potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts are anticipated to positively influence the yuan's exchange rate in 2026 [5]. Global Context - The global foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with the US dollar index rising while the yuan has appreciated independently against it. The year-end seasonal peak in currency settlement is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the yuan [7]. - Improved risk management practices among businesses and the increasing importance of price mechanisms in balancing market supply and demand are expected to further solidify the yuan's stability [7].