▲ATFX图 会议纪要中对通胀形势的判断，基本符合当前市场的主流预期。上图是近五年美国的核心CPI年率柱状 图。2022年9月份创出阶段性高点6.6%，随后因为货币政策收紧而一路下降。今年11月份跌至最低点 2.6%，非常接近2%的美联储既定目标。如果趋势不变，美国的通胀率大概率在2026年达到2%，也就是 会议纪要中提到的"逐渐降至2%"。 来源：ATFX ATFX：今日3：00，美联储发布会议纪要，对应12月9日~10日的两次利率决议。会议纪要中提到了美 国宏观经济发展和货币政策执行中的诸多问题，焦点在于通胀、失业率、利率走向。 通胀 会议纪要中提到：短期内通货膨胀率仍将处于较高水平，随后会逐渐降至 2%；关税对核心商品通货膨 胀的影响将会减弱；通货膨胀的风险仍倾向于上行；高通胀的情况可能会比预期的更为持久。 5月份发生了什么标志性事件？答案就是特朗普的激进移民政策。特朗普从5月份开始，大规模驱逐非法 移民，一时间移民群体人心惶惶，求职意愿大幅下降。 会议纪要中提到的人口老龄化、劳动参议与降低、经济因素等等，在中短期内，影响力均不及特朗普对 非法移民的强硬政策。 利率 会议纪要中提到：调查结果以及期权定价 ...

上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上期所指定交割金库 | 97704 | 0 | 市场对于美联储降息预期的分歧，施压金价，而美元指数低位反弹，同样不利金价多头走强，短期维持 高位震荡，就技术层面而言，短期超买严重，且新高之后多空产生分歧，等待技术指标修正为主，中期 趋势线没有破坏之前，等待调整结束。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周三（12月31日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计97704千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周三（12月31日）黄金期货开盘价993.76元/克，截至目前最高993.76元/克， 最低964.00元/克。截止发稿报977.56元/克，跌幅0.85%，成交量为284555手，持仓为136303手，日持仓 减少8159手。 ...

DXY美元指数升至9日高点98.363。不过伦敦证券交易所集团数据显示，该指数今年累计跌幅仍达9%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 美元兑一篮子货币升至逾一周最高水平，此前美联储最新会议纪要显示部分官员对近期进一步降息持谨 慎态度。根据周二公布的纪要，虽然美联储本月降息25个基点，但部分官员指出此次决策立场微妙，甚 至可能倾向于维持利率不变。多数成员认为若通胀持续回落，利率最终可能调降。 美元兑一篮子货币升至逾一周最高水平，此前美联储最新会议纪要显示部分官员对近期进一步降息持谨 慎态度。根据周二公布的纪要，虽然美联储本月降息25个基点，但部分官员指出此次决策立场微妙，甚 至可能倾向于维持利率不变。多数成员认为若通胀持续回落，利率最终可能调降。 DXY美元指数升至9日高点98.363。不过伦敦证券交易所集团数据显示，该指数今年累计跌幅仍达9%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, driven by multiple factors, and anticipates a moderate appreciation trend for the RMB in 2026 [1][2][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate was raised by 60 points to 7.0288, marking the highest level since September 30, 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 1,596 basis points, or 2.22% [1]. - In December, both onshore and offshore RMB against the USD showed a significant strengthening trend, with onshore RMB appreciating approximately 3,000 basis points and offshore RMB about 3,500 basis points, representing increases of 4% and 5% respectively [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - Analysts attribute the RMB's current appreciation to a weak USD, seasonal factors, and the resilience of the domestic economy, alongside the central bank's stable exchange rate policies and year-end settlement demand [1][4]. - The overall depreciation of the USD, which fell about 10% in 2025, is expected to be the worst annual performance since 2003, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the RMB is expected to experience multiple favorable factors that may lead to a moderate appreciation trend, although the pace of appreciation may slow down after a strong short-term performance [7]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining liquidity and ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth, while also allowing the market to play a decisive role in exchange rate formation [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The current market dynamics suggest that while the RMB may continue to appreciate, it is essential for foreign trade enterprises to avoid betting on a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend and instead utilize financial instruments to manage exchange rate risks [7][8]. - The ongoing improvements in the cross-border payment system and the restructuring of US-China hard power comparisons are expected to gradually correct the systemic undervaluation of the RMB [7].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The foreign exchange market in November 2025 experienced a decline in overall trading volume, with the average daily trading volume decreasing month-on-month. The US dollar index fluctuated and depreciated, while the Chinese yuan continued to appreciate, reaching a new high for the year. The market shifted from a net buying to a net selling position, and the volatility of options decreased, indicating short-term appreciation pressure on the yuan. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.57% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.69% [2] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $146.23 billion, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 5.11% [2] - The foreign currency market showed significant increases in trading activity, while the foreign currency interest rate market saw a decline of over 20% due to external holiday impacts [2] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fluctuated and depreciated, closing at 99.45, down 0.35% from the previous month [3] - The yuan to US dollar exchange rate appreciated, breaking through the 7.12 to 7.08 levels, with the onshore yuan closing at 7.0794, appreciating 0.48% from the previous month [4] - The CFETS index for the yuan against a basket of currencies rose to 97.92, an increase of 0.32% [4] Group 3: Market Positioning and Sentiment - The domestic foreign exchange differential shifted from negative to positive, with an average daily differential of 10.50 basis points by month-end [5] - The average daily net buying of foreign exchange decreased to $7.86 billion, down $3.94 billion from October [5] - The market's herd effect index was 60.77, a decrease of 1.12 points from October, below the historical average of 62.62 [5] Group 4: Options and Volatility - The average daily trading volume of yuan foreign exchange options was $5.44 billion, a month-on-month increase of 3.93% [6] - The implied volatility for the yuan against the US dollar showed a downward trend, with the 1-month ATM implied volatility dropping to 1.68% before rebounding to 2.1% [6] - The 1-year ATM implied volatility decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%, indicating a general decline in market expectations for yuan appreciation [6] Group 5: Interest Rates and Swap Points - The domestic and foreign interest rate differentials remained negative, with the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuating around 4.0% [7][9] - The 1-year swap points decreased by 9 basis points to -1296 basis points, reflecting a slight downward trend in market pressure [8] - The offshore swap points continued to rise, but the spread between onshore and offshore 1-year swap points narrowed to around 50 basis points, the lowest in three months [8]

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月30日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 有色板块在铜带领下有所调整，但铝产业链相关品种跌幅不大，临 近假日建议减仓观望为主，上方压力区间23000-24000，下方支撑 区间21000-21300，可买入虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格 暂时企稳，在产产能环比持平，建议节前轻仓操作，上方压力区间 2800-3000，下方支撑区间2000-2200，可买入虚值看涨期权做保 护。 ...

2026年元旦佳节来临，回望2025年人民币兑美元汇率走势，全年以"先弱后强、年末加速冲高"为主旋 律，最终实现约4%的升值幅度。 在12月25日、12月31日离岸人民币更是升破7.0关口，创下15个月新高，为全年行情画上圆满句号。 从年初到4月8日，人民币汇率下探至全年低点7.42879，贬值幅度超2.18%。 2025年元旦过后，美联储暂停降息节奏，美元指数维持高位震荡；叠加2-4月中美关税摩擦升温，美方 加征关税累积税率达145%，中方同步出台反制措施；国内经济复苏节奏暂未达市场预期，企业结汇意 愿低迷，跨境资金持观望态度，多重因素共同拖累人民币汇率走弱。 4月起人民币汇率开启反弹通道，短短两月内升值超2.58%，7月初顺利回升至7.16附近区间。 二季度以来，美联储降息预期逐渐明朗，美元指数高位回落；5月中美经贸会谈释放积极信号，关税税 率下调至30%左右，双边经贸关系趋于缓和；国内经济数据持续改善，企业集中结汇行为进一步放大汇 率升值动能，人民币迎来一波强势修复行情。 来源： Unsplash 2025年，人民币汇率走过了年初蓄力走弱、年中强劲反弹、年末稳健上行的完整行情，在美联储政策调 整、中美经 ...

12月30日午间，在岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，创下2023年5月以来新高。中银证券全球首席经济学家 管涛认为，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方面因素。一是美联储降息预期增强，驱动美元指数回 落。11月下旬至今，美元指数下跌约2.0%。二是今年以来，面对复杂的外部环境，中国经济展现出较 强韧性，近期国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及高盛等多家外资机构为中国经济投了"信任票"，纷纷上 调中国经济增速预测值，外资配置人民币资产兴趣增强。 对于汇率后市走势，专家表示，市场和经营 主体需要理性看待。未来影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多，人民币走势仍存在较大的不确定性。 ...

【12月31日美元指数上涨，多种货币汇率有变动】12月31日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当日 上涨0.21%，汇市尾市收于98.241。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1747美元，低于前一日的1.1767美 元；1英镑兑换1.3466美元，低于前一日的1.3507美元。 此外，1美元兑换156.49日元，高于前一日的 156.03日元；1美元兑换0.7917瑞士法郎，高于前一日的0.7896瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3696加元，高于前 一日的1.3684加元；1美元兑换9.1996瑞典克朗，高于前一日的9.1802瑞典克朗。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.31 04:33:15 周三 美元指数:12月31日涨0.21%收于 98.241 【12月31日美元指数上涨,多种货币汇率有变动】 12月31日,衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当 日上涨0.21%,汇市尾市收于98.241。 截至纽约汇 市尾市,1欧元兑换1.1747美元,低于前一日的 1.1767美元;1英镑兑换1.3466美元,低于前一日的 1.3507美元。此外,1美元兑换156.49日元,高 ...

Group 1 - The State Council of China has announced the implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law Implementation Regulations, effective from January 1, 2026, which includes 54 articles detailing taxpayer scope, tax rates, and management measures [2][7] - The "Two New" policy for 2026 has been clarified, expanding support for equipment upgrades and focusing on key consumer products, with a total of 62.5 billion yuan allocated in advance for support [2][7] - Meta has acquired AI startup Manus for several billion dollars, which has generated over 100 million USD in annual recurring revenue within eight months, leading to a surge in AI-related stocks in the A-share market [2][7] Group 2 - The humanoid robot sector in the A-share market experienced a significant surge, potentially linked to rumors of a forthcoming executive order from the Trump administration regarding robots and Tesla's upcoming Optimus project [3][8] - Silver prices have seen extreme volatility, with a drop exceeding 10% and a significant decline in gold prices, attributed to rumors of a major bank facing a margin call on silver futures [3][8] - 29 A-share companies have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with 19 expecting profit increases, and Lixun Precision is projected to achieve a net profit between 16.52 billion and 17.18 billion yuan [3][8] Group 3 - Shi Chuang Energy's actual controller has divorced, resulting in the ex-wife indirectly holding approximately 34.16 million shares valued at around 446 million yuan, without affecting the company's control [4][9] - *ST Chang Pharmaceutical's stock price has fallen below 1 yuan, indicating a potential delisting due to continuous trading below this threshold [4][10] - Farsen has received a cash donation of 85 million yuan from its controlling shareholder, which will enhance liquidity and improve its asset structure following previous losses [4][10]